So, this Scottish Independence thing Cameron's banging on about…

TJ – this will be interesting to watch for sure. I wonder if AS is a bit like Clegg. Looks a smooth operator and canny politician but when it comes to it……? You do not have to be a Tory to realise that DC has actually been very canny even when caught on the back foot – he has trumped his coalition partners and may well do the same with Sarkzoy when the next leg of the € crisis arrives in about 6-8 weeks time.

Its funny reading The Guardian coverage of the SNP today and your comments on giving the pro’s a boost – these are actually quite negative/defensive arguments. I understand the point but think that there is another message behind them?????

Turkeys voting for Christmas, quite frankly. A brief period of childish satisfaction after the initial vote. Sticking two fingers up at ‘the oppressor’ (who’ll actually be quietly gratified to see the back of you). Before you’re grovelling back, cap in hand, when the economy does a Greece with in a few years

that just more english arrogance suggesting they cant cope without you…has the empire come flooding back ..i am sure the same arguments were put forward there and probably about Australia, India etc.

It plays into the hands of the SNP to spout this stuff and gets an emotional response from people who dont like being compared to Turkey or the suggestions that without their “parents” in England they would flounder…its BS as well…..I think the UK would struggle more if it left their current union with the EU ….but hey apparently self determination is a price worth paying 🙄 the hypocrisy oif caeron imagine what the Tories would do if the EU wanted to say when they could have a referendum and what ithe question was …what would dave and you lot think then ? Seriously how would you react and then they said it was up to them if you left anyway..seriously would you be ok with this and vie wit as reasonable and remember Scotland did not vote for a tory led govt at all.
It is bizarre to here people dislike one union [EU} and use arguments against it then ignore them when it comes to Scotland and the Union they like.
Odd and you would not accpet it from the EU

Alex Salmond wanted to base his economic policy on the regulatory framework of Iceland, with the taxation regime of Ireland. Thus:

In March 2008 Alex Salmond addressed an audience at Harvard University. Some of you may remember it. In the speech the First Minister referred to the “arc of prosperity” or Ireland, Iceland, and Norway; he referred to “the remarkable success of indigenous companies that have become global, Nokia in Finland, Ericsson in Sweden, Maersk shipping in Denmark or for that matter the Royal Bank of Scotland.” (not the last of his praise for the Royal Bank); he said “the lesson we draw from our neighbours in Ireland – the Celtic Tiger economy – where annual growth has averaged more than 6 per cent over the past two decades, is that with the right strategy, there are no limits to success in the modern global economy.”; and a hymn of praise to Scotland’s financial sector “of course we Scots are lucky enough to have the one of the best brands in the world – a global recognition and affection for our culture that money cannot buy. Take financial services. With RBS and HBOS – two of the world’s biggest banks – Scotland has global leaders today, tomorrow and for the long-term. And a growing number of American firms – not least JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and State Street – are discovering that the Scottish financial sector can do anything you can do in London and can do it better and rather importantly in the current environment can do it at lower cost.”

The scots would have been left holding the baby for RBS and HBOS.

If Salmond had had his way 3 years ago, Scotland would presently be making Greece look like Switzerland!

the ginger one – salmond continuously talking about a referendum? I have not seen it. All the reference I have seen to it come from unionist parties.

Though Salmond wasn’t the only one who thought that salvation would be found that way…

We live and learn… well some of us do.

Gideon praisesd Ireland as well iirc and Iceland….he cannot be singled out for failing to see the crisis Binners can he ……..its like you are saying you have faith in Gideon now 😯

No one [ except VInce apparently ] saw it coming

Teamhurtmore

Really Salmond is a much more astute politician that Cameron with a much better grasp of detail and the overall picture.

Its very simple. the SNP who are the majority Scottish government have a manifesto commitment to an independence referendum at the end of this Scottish parliament. If Cameron pushes one thru before that he will be portrayed as an out of touch arrogant English Tory forcing his views on Scotland and will allow Salmond to make the referendum an anti tory vote.

Not sure as to the pro’s and cons of going our seperate ways (as an Englishman with a bit of Scottish heritage) BUT unfortunately when AS opens his mouth all I hear is a scottish Bob Crow.

its like you are saying you have faith in Gideon now

That’s some pretty weird and twisted logic there Junkyard. I’m calling AS an idiot for his professed economic policy! So if Gideon is doing the same, then I’m calling an idiot too. Which he clearly is!

damn he did not fall for my trap 😉

so we would have had ascottish idiot in charge rather than an ENglish [Irish]one is this your argument now 😉

Its a weird old situation, but with hindsight I’m glad when the **** hit the fan, we had the dour Scottish electoral liability at the helm.

I dread to bloody think where all of us would be if either Alex Salmond or George Osbourne had had their mitts on the controls when it all went pear shaped

TJ – I understand where we are, just trying to get a grips with the why. Why the delay to the second half of the term for example? I am naturally cycnical of politicians, so this is the really interesting aspect for me to watch.

Frankly I do not have enough knowledge about Scottish politics to really comment on how astute AS is/isn’t. But I am simple suspicious that there is an element of bluster combined with luck (I read too much Nicholas Taleb!!). Its only a hunch though and not real “evidence” (little in-joke there :wink:)

JY – the lack of consistency in stances between Scotland and Europe is an interesting one too!! But there will always be a point at which this happens by definition. Doesn’t stop it raising an ironic smile though!!

Its not a lack of consistencey it is utter hypocrisy

I would love to put that EU scenario question to Dave and how he would react o a referndum on those terms and see how he respond 😀

[Paxman mode]
Answer the question
{/Paxman mode]

I dread to bloody think where all of us would be if either Alex Salmond or George Osbourne had had their mitts on the controls when it all went pear shaped

They would’ve done exactly the same, bailed out the banks and made a private banking crisis a multi-generational public finance crisis.

True JY – but isn’t politics often all about brinkmanship!! For Sarkozy read DC in this case, I agree. They will always take calculated gambles. Makes it equally frustrating and interesting to watch.

[if the edit was for my benefit, I think you are looking for an argument, where there isn’t one]

Why the delay? so the SNP can run on their record – “Look we can be trusted to run Scotland- look how well we have done – we promised we would deliver this that and the other and we have done”

Also so that they can look serious for the first 3 years about all the other issues and not be accused of being a one issue party. Tehy need to show they can govern

f the edit was for my benefit, I think you are looking for an argument, where there isn’t one

No I would just like to see DC squirm ..i was more goading Binners tbh

The question I always find myself asking is that if Scotland’s such a burden, why does Westminster want to keep it part of the union? 😕

=> Will you need a VISA to come to an Independent Scotland from England?

No. You probably won’t even need a passport as per Eire/Northern Irish border control. In fact I dare say that most people won’t even notice a change (unless Scotland stops using the pound).

=> How will an independent Scotland fund itself, will an Independent Scotland raise its own taxes and stuff?

Eh, is the English education system really that poor that people don’t realise what Independent means? For the avoidance of doubt, yes an independent Scotland would be free to set whatever taxes it wishes in order to balance its books, including Income Tax, Corporation Tax, Road Fuel Duty, Excise Duty on Whisky etc. In fact, just like every other independent country in the world. Tax may go up. That’s the thing about a democracy you see, people can elect a government who prefer to increase tax and deliver services or choose one with a different strategy.

There is talk of a “devo max” or “independence light” option. These would also see Scotland take full fiscal autonomy but remain part of the Union – so even the “watered down” version would still see Scotland getting control of its taxes. Right now (with no referendum required) the Scottish parliament are already in an ongoing struggle over increasing some powers which could, feasibly include Corporation tax. If Mr Cameron wanted to boost unionism – he could ease the way of that legislation and increase the powers of holyrood – it would dampend down some of the sentiment.

=> What will happen to RBS?

Nobody knows. Its unlikely that anyone (except maybe RBS staff) would be making their decision based solely on that point so its not really a big issue. It would be negotiated between westminster and holyrood – probably neither of them want it!

=> What would have happened to RBS in an independent scotland?

Its an odd question. Scotland wasn’t independent. Perhaps RBS would never have ballooned to the size it was or been regulated the way it wasn’t in a Scottish banking system. We will never know. It may have been cheaper for the Scottish govt to let RBS fail than bail them out. Whilst Ireland and Iceland are “in the shit”, people aren’t living in mud huts and killing wild animals in their high streets. To the ordinary man on the street the scenarious of financial armagedon isn’t that different from life in Scotland during the 1980’s tory rule.

=> Will it stop the “unfair” tuition fees divide?

The problem with devolution is it gives away some power, and sometimes there are things that are no longer under your control that you might not like. I think if you asked most Scots what is unfair about it – the answer would be that EU students get free education; if an Independent Scotland is not part of Europe (an issue which is not 100% clear – and is IMHO a major point that needs resolving before a referendum) then actually that could be resolved. If it is part of Europe then actually England would qualify as per france etc. and it could force a whole new review of the funding to avoid a mass influx of students from the south. Bear in mind it will be 2 or 3 years before we get a referendum, then even if it was a YES vote, it would be another 4 or 5 years before the details of a break up could be agreed and documented. Its unlikely that without Independence that there will still be the same tuition fees model in Scotland in 8 years time.

=> The “English” would be better off without the “Scots” anyway.

If that is the case why are they fighting so hard to keep the Union? There seems to be no political will at Westminster to drive such a split. If Mr Cameron would be glad to see the back of Scotland he’s certainly not showing it.

=> Salmond doesn’t want Independence anyway.

There may be some truth in this. I certainly think he would be daft to go with a Yes/No option only, because what does he do after a defeat. He may almost be better to rally his entire party behind an entire Independence Light movement with full fiscal autonomy as he can probably win that; it gives a slight concession to Westminster but we don’t loose much.

=> The vote will need at least 50% support.

Actually nobody knows what the requirements will be. With three options some form of STV might be better – although determining the future of a country on a “least worst basis” may not be popular.

So, if Scotland did vote for, and get, independence from the union, what would happen to the Scottish MPs and Lords in Westminster? Surely they would be told to get lost?

Would the Queen remain as head of state? Would the Scottish regiments remain part of the Army, or would Scotland keep them to be deployed as an independent force? What about Faslane or Lossiemouth?

Would the price of whiskey go up?

poly – interesting comments but a trifle harsh on Eng education, surely? Your own post shows that the fiscal issue is not a straightforward one. Plus your comments on RBS fly in the face of AS’s previous rhetoric on the issue.

~Salmond is the best political operator in the UK by a long long way – he will run rings round Cameron as he has done round everyone in holyrood. and all UK Pms Edit – yes he really is that shrewd – and a good grasp of detail as well.

I reckon Cameron is running rings around Salmond, here: two possible outcomes:

1. Salmond wins: no more Scotland in Westminster, all the Labour and SNP MPs get sent home, and the Tory majority goes up.

2. Salmond loses: Tory credibility in Scotland goes up.

For Cameron it’s a win-win situation.

Would the price of whiskey go up?

No. I can assure you that this would have no impact on whiskey prices.

Tory credibility

There’s no such thing in Scotland 😉

Go for it Scotland – what could possibly go wrong?

😀

Junky – the constitutional agreements of power and who carries responsibility are different in the UK/EU Relationship and the E&W/Scotland relationship – which were set out by the act of union, basically, any change in constitutional position of Scotland are bound by the terms of the agreements she has already made.

Tory credibility
There’s no such thing in Scotland

Not at the moment, but if the other parties botch the whole referendum… who knows what the future may bring?

I’m afraid that no-one is addressing the major issue here. If those selfish gits north of the border go swanning off, once Call-Me-Dave has finished gerrymandering re-drawing the electoral boundaries, the rest of us will be left with a permanent Tory government

I just hope the Scots are prepared to take the hordes of refugees fleeing north. Its only fair 😀

:-)binners!!!!!

A couple of points

1. At the moment Scotland can chose to have a referendum, but as they don’t have any power to actually cause this to happen (this lives in Westminster) it would not be binding. What DC is offering is a binding referendum – a big step up. AS (who is probably the best politician in the UK) has had his bluff called. If he rejects this and then has a referendum later which comes out in favour, he will have lost credibility. The main reason that he wants to delay is because he is not sure at the moment that he can win (even a Dev-Max one)

2. Does the SNP want to win the Independence vote? If we take away the independence part of the SNP manifesto they look like any other centre-left party and as such they would be reduced. By having AS they would continue to lead, but without him they are very much weaker. Look what happened to the SNP when he stood down for a period. Also if they do win, they can no longer blame the ‘English’

3. Independence affects us all. If Scotland chose to leave England, Wales and NI in the UK, then there would be an impact on all of us, not just North of the border. There would be a huge cost to separate Scotland. As an member of the UK, any costs should be meet by Scotland, they want to leave and change the status quo, they should pay. How much will this be – I have yet to see any figures, but it will be in 100’s of millions

4. Separation of assets. At the moment the SNP approach is one of lets decide to be independent and then we can work out who gets what (except for the oil – that is Scotlands!!) Working out who gets what is going to take many, many years. It is a non-trivial exercise, covering all parts of the government, MoD, Land, etc. This will include RBS, HBOS – the new Scotland will have to accept any costs against them. It has been mentioned that Scotland does not have a National Debt. Well actually it has a share of the UK National Debt – which will have to be transferred to Scotland at Independence

5. Big Questions. The SNP has yet to answer questions like which currency, what will their role be in NATO, what terms are they expecting to join the EU, etc. Huge questions. If they retain the pound, they will have no influence over it in Westminster, would the Scottish people want to join the Euro now? What would be the terms for Scotland joining NATO and likewise for the EU? Would they get the same deal as the UK, or would they join with different terms. As a small nation they may not be able to dictate terms. Other questions like pensions need to be resolved before Independence

6. Jobs. The UK (without Scotland) would move any UK based jobs out of Scotland. It would not happen overnight, but it would happen. (You can’t see the New Scotland giving government jobs to the rest of the UK!) Some of these would be taken up with the increase in the size of the Scottish government.

Overall there is so much to be sorted out. At the moment the approach seems to be one of vote for Independence and then we will sort it out. I think that DC is perhaps a little more street smart than we give him credit for. It will be interesting to see how AS deals with this.

Tory credibility

Think of it the other way

If the Tories grant independence, they solve the West Lothian question.

solve the west lotian question, and the Conservative party becomes a LOT stronger in Westminster.

edit: aha – I think Binners and I are now thinking along the same lines… no need to redraw the boundaries Binners, the W-Lothian question is the key to the future 😉

Not everybody in Scotland wants to be independant.

In fact pretty much everybody I know with more than 2 brain cells are filled with horror at the idea.

The problem is that the people who harp on about wanting it have absolutely no idea on how the policies are going to be implemented or even care.

sadmadalan – lots of good point there. I agree that people underestimating Cameron will get a shock here. As a neutral, I think he is playing a smart game in calling the SNP’s bluff.

I think that DC is perhaps a little more street smart than we give him credit for. It will be interesting to see how AS deals with this.

I think he’s a lot more street smart than a lot of people on here give him credit for.

CaptainFlashheart – Member

No. I can assure you that this would have no impact on whiskey prices.

😉 You may be wrong though. Independence is declared, additional export tax is added to Whisky sales to nu-UK – call it a Scottish poke in the eye to us nasty English and our behaviour over the years 🙂

As a result, Whiskey becomes more popular and prices drop/rise depending on ability to supply 🙂

They best not slap any tax on Irn Bru. Thats all I’m saying! Wars have been started over less

swavis – Member
The question I always find myself asking is that if Scotland’s such a burden, why does Westminster want to keep it part of the union?

Because the current members of the Bullingdon club have bloody great forests planted over parts of it that they will lose…Not to mention the grouse moors.

It would also be interesting to see what conditions…sorry “reserved powers” were imposed. The oil (whats left of it) is in Scottish waters,so England demanding a share would in theory be illegal, despite any conditions imposed. It is interesting that Cameron comes out with this at the same time as the Times is mentioning figures of 60 billion as our bill for getting out,DC running scared methinks?
Won’t happen in my lifetime, would not see Eck getting a yes from the people who vote in Scotland (60-70%)

PS; I fully agree and endorse the right of my country to self determine (just in case TJ is head of the new secret police)

Because the current members of the Bullingdon club have bloody great forests planted over parts of it that they will lose

Why would they lose them? It’d just become ownership of land in a ‘foreign’ country – same as if they did (probably do) own land in France or anywhere else.

They best not slap any tax on Irn Bru. Thats all I’m saying! Wars have been started over less

But think of the Scottish balance of payments.

Don’t they make Bucky in Devon? Perhaps there will be a deal done about the oil. An oil pipeline from north of the border into England. A Bucky pipeline from Dartmoor to Glasgow.

Thus preventing rioting in Glasgae 😉

EDIT: Great minds Z-11 😀

willard – Member

So, if Scotland did vote for, and get, independence from the union, what would happen to the Scottish MPs and Lords in Westminster? Surely they would be told to get lost?

Would the Queen remain as head of state? Would the Scottish regiments remain part of the Army, or would Scotland keep them to be deployed as an independent force? What about Faslane or Lossiemouth?

Would the price of whiskey go up?

Of course the scottish Lords and Mps would no longer be there

Queen would remain head of state.

Scottish regiments become the scottish army

Nuclear subs would no longer be welcome