How long do we think he’s going to be around?
(Go on you thought it was going to be about him resigning 🙂 )
(I thought it’s about time we gave him a thread - may possibly be a hello and good bye one thou.)
I doubt he'll be quitting, but I think his prospects of getting the top job slipped before his wife's tax affairs hit the news - when he bungled his response to the cost of living crisis, filled up someone else's car with petrol and did that weird thing about insisting he wants to cut tax (while raising NI).
Even the Daily Mail is calling him "Fishy Rishi" now.
You know, when some-one like Martin Lewis says out loud that he thinks there's a risk of civil unrest because of the a looming cost of living crisis...Martin Bloody Lewis...the man who used to tell you how to shave a few quid off your mobile phone bill, or tell you your rights about airline fares...And still as a govt you pursue, in the face of all evidence that they are effective, policies based around a dogmatic belief in "balanced books" small states, and "The power of the market" that will make millions of people either unemployed homeless of debt ridden. Then the shuffling about of one minister isn't really going to make any difference.
There's a very good letter in the guardian today that really sums up the problems here:
I am sick of hearing that wealthy people who use tax-avoidance schemes are “doing nothing wrong”. The only reason they are doing nothing wrong is that other wealthy people – friends, relatives, business associates, old school chums – in the legislature have built loopholes into the tax system for this purpose. We have a collusive system where members of an exclusive clique gain access to the legislature, often while funded by others of the clique, and create legislation that only applies to those outside the clique and creates a lower-tax life for those within it.
Other people dodging tax are doing something wrong; the only reason these people are doing nothing wrong is that their tax-reduction schemes come with immunity. To place some people above the laws that govern the rest of society is to create something between a kleptocracy and an oligarchy. Colluding in such a system is doing something wrong.
Dr Stephen Riley
Bruton, Somerset
All he needs to do is relaunch Rishi's meerkat meals and we'll all love him again (if his wife pays for it).
Perhaps he could relaunch then as Rishi's Loaves and Fishys
Already good to align your marketing with the Big Guy
He has moved out of No 11 though? Maybe to No 9...?
I doubt he’ll be quitting,
He'll be moved on in the next reshuffle then he'll quietly step aside before popping up a few months later in the States as part of a US-led "healthcare" buyout of the NHS.
You have to ask yourself the reason that a billionaire wife wants to save the £150k a year job of her millionaire husband by agreeing to pay lots of tax.
Its clearly not because they need the money from that job. I don't know, maybe its something to do with the political influence that job brings to help his billionaire wife and all his rich friends stay rich.
Or maybe I'm being cynical. .
That's a great letter in the Guardian, needs sharing widely so that people start to understand rhe fundamental changes that are needed.
To be honest,if Boris has hung him out to dry by leaking his wife's tax stuff, if I were him I'd be quitting as a Minister and resigning as an MP* - he can afford not to play those shit games.
*Though I fear he's in a safe Tory seat so no risk of an upset in a by election unless the opposition unite as an "anti-avoidance alliance"
He’ll be moved on in the next reshuffle then he’ll quietly step aside before popping up a few months later in the States as part of a US-led “healthcare” buyout of the NHS.
This ^^
There does seem to be a bit of a power struggle going on in the tory Party right now, the inept, bumbling Bozza and his crooked allies must be feeling confident that they can scupper anyone that might emerge to challenge the Leadership in the Party.
He’ll be moved on in the next reshuffle then he’ll quietly step aside before popping up a few months later in the States as part of a US-led “healthcare” buyout of the NHS.
This.
Or some other highly paid consultancy role taking advantage of the rules he put in place. More likely a big role at KPMG or PWC, advising their clients on using the rules he put in place to minimise their tax liabilities. All part of the revolving door from the treasury to the big consultancies
Think of Rishi's adventure in politics as like a gap year to see if he could get to play at being Prime Minister. As soon as he realises that's not happening, he'll get back to his lifes real passion... making shedloads of cash
He’ll be moved on in the next reshuffle
You don't get "moved on" from the Number 2 job. He'll be out of the cabinet, then out of parliament. He's not going to get the Number 1 job after this.
By contrast, you might like to read about the tax affairs of his predecessor, who was also a Non Dom (when he was working abroad), put all his shares in to a trust, then when he came back to the UK made sure he paid 50% tax on them.
Fair play to Javid, he appears to have understood how politicians need to be seen to behave.
Could he replace Rishi? Assuming Cummings' advisors was the reason he quit before.
Fair play to Javid, he appears to have understood how politicians need to be seen to behave.
Could he replace Rishi?
Probably more interested in replacing Boris.
Received wisdom is that it's never the favourites who get the Tory leadership (that just didn't apply last time round for special reasons).
I thought Sunak replaced Javid when Javid resigned on a point of principle...only to return to the Cabinet a year or so later when he needed to displace Sadiq Khan as the most famous bus driver's son in the UK?
Fair play to Javid, he appears to have understood how politicians need to be seen to behave.
But if morally it's OK to be a nom-dom, (as most of the Tory party seem to think) why did he give it up when he became an MP?
why did he give it up when he became an MP?
Because if you are a non-dom you are stating that you dont consider the UK to be your permanent home. Which isnt really compatible with being an MP.
And still as a govt you pursue, in the face of all evidence that they are effective, policies based around a dogmatic belief in “balanced books” small states, and “The power of the market” that will make millions of people either unemployed homeless of debt ridden. Then the shuffling about of one minister isn’t really going to make any difference.
Here here.
Javid was a Non Dom when he was living and working abroad. So when he returned and became an MP, he stopped. Seems pretty straightforward and I don't see any issues with that behaviour. I also think he'll be after the Number 1 job. The Sunak's by contrast seem less than transparent and one wonders at the internal Due Diligence. Perhaps they simply didn't heed any advice. In any event, he's done with politics after this.
I think there's a very fundamental reason Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, or Priti Patel will not be selected by the Conservatives for the number 1 job....
I think there’s a very fundamental reason Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, or Priti Patel will not be selected by the Conservatives for the number 1 job….
Suprised it took so long for someone to infer this.
I disagree, Rishi would have been regarded as very acceptable if he hadn't got himself in such a mess.
Either)
1 Slick Rick is around for the full term until GE and maybe beyond
2 Gone by Next week
@chakaping
Yeah, I think Rishi was the 'acceptable brown person', but there's still a lot of underlying racism in the Tories that would too much for him to overcome. TBH it's not just the tories, i think there's too much underlying racism in british society that would present a massive hurdle for anyone who isn't white to be electable. I feel sad writing that
We're all seemingly inferring that Rishi hasn't got any ammunition to fight back with? I think those that voted this party into power won't even remember this come election time - its all down to how much Johnson wants him gone and how badly Rishi wants Johnson's job.
I expect Rishi has plenty of dirt on those within in his own party plotting against him - let's hope he comes out punching - for the entertainment value if nothing else. Its not as we have any kind of international reputation for good governance to protect!!
The part where The Saj paid 50% tax on the wealth he brought back into the the country is straight out of the “look! Squirrel!” tactics playbook.
No numbers have been released and 50% of sod all is sod all. Virtue signalling of the inept.
And as said before, Rishi isn’t the right shade of leader. Especially for the blue rinse fascists and little Englanders. He and his other cabinet members that qualify are barely acceptable as long as they are being extra nasty to the great unwashed.
You have to ask yourself the reason that a billionaire wife wants to save the £150k a year job of her millionaire husband by agreeing to pay lots of tax.
Its clearly not because they need the money from that job. I don’t know, maybe its something to do with the political influence that job brings to help his billionaire wife and all his rich friends stay rich.
Yep keeping the status quo or improving it for the wealthy.
I don’t think he’s in the job to help out the little people.
If the numbers are true the Dom staus avoided £20m in tax, just think that’s just the savings in avoiding the tax, some serious moneys flying around in Rishi Missi land.
Perhaps he should have paid for Big Dogs wallpaper 🙂
Chancer of the exchequer
Javid was a Non Dom when he was living and working abroad. So when he returned and became an MP, he stopped.
No that's wrong, he would have been domiciled abroad from birth as he maintained a ****stani domicle based on his father, he then opted to become UK domiciled. My guess is the money in the offshore trust was an EBT which he was going to repatriate sooner or later. The EBT could be described fairly as a tax avoidance arrnagement albeit one set up at the behest of his employer. There is no suggestion that Sunak has ever been a non dom and he is certainly isn't at the moment because he couldn't be a MP if he was. His wife on the other hand is non domiciled and she paid a fee to maintain the remittance basis which is completely inline with the intent of the rules brought in under Brown and extended under Cameron. It is completely incorrect to describe this as a tax avoidance arrangement. The letter in the Guardian is puerile.
he then opted to become UK domiciled
There is your domicile based on the UK law of domicile (which covers more areas than just tax law), and being treated for tax purposes as "non-domiciled". I *think* it is the case that you always have to opt in to being treated for tax purposes as being non-domiciled, but you can only properly do this if you are, in fact, non-domiciled in accordance with the general law of domicile and any specific tax rules about it.
ETA Sounds like the Saj has ****stani "domicile of origin" but has make the UK his "domicile of choice". But for tax purposes you can't hang on to your domicile of origin indefinitely if you live here.
Come on rishi, you know why to do. A life in the Californian sun beckons, just push the button and get your revenge.
He now knows he'll never be PM and is about to get pushed out anyway.
A nice 'I realise my conduct fell short and given the sacrifices of others I must step down' will do.
Drop mic and walk away.
He now knows he’ll never be PM and is about to get pushed out anyway.A nice ‘I realise my conduct fell short and given the sacrifices of others I must step down’ will do.
Drop mic and walk away.
Who the hell does that leave as the next Chancellor?!
Unlike the top job, there's not an obvious successor waiting in the wings. We'll end up with another of Boris' yes-men.
This is the problem when the talent pool is not just shallow, it's bone dry!
I'd shoot the lot of the them and then start from scratch.
If Sunak didn't realise that is wife's Non-Dom status would look bad, then why on earth is he allowed to look after the Nation's money? He seems a bit stupid to me.
Also, the amount of money his wife has saved by using the non-Dom rules is, in terms of her overall wealth, a pittance. Which to me is actually worse, just a sign of greed and keeping as much as possible away from HMRC.
The letter from the Guardian really sums it up nicely. Most of us mere mortals pay the taxes we have to through PAYE. We may take the advantage of pension contributions, or an ISA, here and there. Very few of us have the wealth that allows us to divert our income through schemes and devices put in place for the rich, by people who are friends of the rich.
There is your domicile based on the UK law of domicile
Tax law follows the law of domicile subject to specific statutory provisions so Javid would have essentially been adopting a domicile of choice. The concept of deemed domicile which I think is probably what you are thinking about has been a feature of inheritance tax (and its predeceesor Capital Transfer Tax) since inception. This concept was added to income tax by Cameron's government but that was obviously after Javid returned to the UK.
The letter in the Guardian is puerile.
It's absolutely correct in my opinion. That is a problem that needs fixed urgently.
@mefty, not exactly, the point I was making was that you have to claim that your overseas domicile entitles you to be treated differently for tax, otherwise you pay UK tax in the usual way. I don't know whether not making such a claim amounts to making the UK your domicile of choice, maybe a bit more would be required.
I don’t know whether not making such a claim amounts to making the UK your domicile of choice
It doesn't.
Between the Non-Dom issue and the Covid fine, he should, well.. he should have resigned and said he won't stand for re-election, but this is the new normal. No, really he should soon realise he'll never get the big job now and there's really no point in him staying around.
Even before all this, his magically rise through Politics has always seems dodgy AF, to come from nowhere to 'next PM' in a few short years, given his background, something's not right about that.
If he really thinks No 10 has been leaking against him, he should admit to himself he's not gonna be PM now and make a huge show of resigning on principle and calling for Johnson to do the same.
Wishful thinking I know, but a nice thought.
Even before all this, his magically rise through Politics has always seems dodgy AF, to come from nowhere to ‘next PM’ in a few short years, given his background, something’s not right about that.
Paucity of Brexit-friendly talent in the Tory ranks is the main factor in this IMO. And Johnson's team choosing candidates they hoped would be easily controlled.
Where is the line between 'knowing' and 'unknowing'.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1513871655482929163
Sunak is not going to go quietly, He doesn't need the money but he needs the feeling of power. That's why he's doing it.
Where is the line between ‘knowing’ and ‘unknowing’.
There were no parties, they'd have known.
There were parties but they didn't know they were parties.
There were parties but they didn't know if they attended them or not.
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So the options are that the two people highest up in Government are either too stupid to know what a party is or indeed if they were there (in which case they shouldn't be in power) or they're too entitled to think that the rules apply to them (in which case they shouldn't be in power).
Paucity of Brexit-friendly talent in the Tory ranks is the main factor in this IMO. And Johnson’s team choosing candidates they hoped would be easily controlled.
Maybe, but the guy didn't exist politically until 2014, he was a Hedge Fund manager in 'the City' and out of nowhere he's given the candidacy for one of the safest Tory seats in the UK, became an MP in 2015, he's Chief Sec under Javid 3 years later and goes from being a complete outsider to Chancellor of the Exchequer when he leaves. Compare that to even the shadiest Tory MPs and that's blisteringly quick.
I'm not saying he's been parachuted into Government by Billionaires to look after their interests, but if Billionaires were going to parachute someone into Government to look after their interests, it would look a lot like this.
Eldest has a uni friend who is in Tory HQ this week.
Apparently the Treasury have no idea what is going to happen with inflation or the economy, or how to being them under control.
Not exactly surprising.
Johnson must've known he was a Hi Risk Anus
With Starmer having gone full gammon will this leave a Premier Sunak the sensible option of rejoining the single market?
No chance at all. Despite what he said in his resignation letter all rishi wants is to make the rich richer. The eu might make that more difficult so can't see him wanting it
Glad to see the back of him and his taxe rises.
didnt even get to see in his NI cut today, NI allowance has risen 3k today ,
Am I the only who's thinking this guy is a shoe in for PM?
I was watching BBC News when Ed Vaizey said this. Easier to link the tweet than trying to remember the quote myself. Made me chuckle.
https://twitter.com/suicideresearch/status/1544416845989662720
Glad to see the back of him
Uh, not yet, or at least unlikely.
shermer75
Free Member
Am I the only who’s thinking this guy is a shoe in for PM?
First thing I thought when resigned was that he had picked his moment to distance himself from Bozo in order to get ready for a leadership attempt at some point.
^ this.
I thought he was out of the frame after everyone realised how staggeringly rich he is, and his lack of charisma became more apparent.
But he's played his hand the best he can by trying to force an early leadership contest, which might leave him as the "least worst" option in many minds.
When in doubt, see what the bookies think...
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
When in doubt, see what the bookies think…
I'd never even considered Penny Mordaunt!
Tough one, his wifes non-dom isses and hidey hidey taxy taxy will be an angle of attack from the other parties. As will the fact he's stinking rich anyway. He also had his hand all over this cost of living stuff and all the tax rises etc.
Hopefully we're over the fact in this country he's not a while but possibly not in some rabid Tory seats.
Whilst I don't think he'll be brilliant as PM I shudder at some of the other options.
Every one of the top contenders to replace Johnson is imo more right-wing than Johnson, in one way or the other. Eg Sunak on spending/austerity and Ben Wallace, the supposedly leftie Johnson loyalist, on gay rights and welfare payments.
Johnson has no ideology. He follows whats best for him and what seems like a good idea
#READY4AUSTERIT!
Proper austerity.
Defeatists!
Sunak as PM provides an excellent opportunity. Tory support has collapsed to a 200 year low. Never in UK history has the Tory Party ever polled less than 30% in a general election, they would have seriously struggled to achieve that had there been a general election today.
The wealthiest person in UK politics making "difficult decisions" affecting millions, during a cost of living crises in which ordinary people are struggling to feed themselves and keep warm in winter, is highly unlikely to boost Tory support.
The man with a tax-avoiding billionaire wife is the third prime minister since the last general election, he has no personal mandate from the UK electorate.
The Tories won the last general election on a promise of no austerity, they have no mandate for a different set of economic policies which involve cuts in public spending.
Opposition parties need to relentlessly denounce the illegitimacy of the 3rd Tory prime minister in 2 months and any attempt to introduce austerity without a mandate.
They need to mobilise public opinion so that any resistance on the part of the Tory government to put their policies to the British people simply increases their unpopularity.
The Tory Party is on the ropes like never before in history, they are extremely disunited and undergoing a crisis of ideology - the current Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer intends to increase taxes when less than 4 months ago he was passionately arguing that they should be slashed. The previous Tory Chancellor tried to do precisely that. They are disunited on basic economic policy. The public has no faith in their ability to maintain economic stability.
Now is not the time to sit back and let a Tory Party which is on its knees like never before get up.
Wowsers.
If we collectively say 'you win', will you adjust your approach?
Some people argue because they want to say something that they don't believe has been said.
Some people argue because they want to say something.
Richard Nixon once said to a friend, "You'll never make it in politics, you just don't know how to lie".
That was Boris' great skill, but I don't think Rishi has it.
So when we get Sushi Runak, will he be doing another mini budget as they seem to be like busses these days.
as they seem to be like busses these days.
Which bus are you referring to? The ones that have blatant untruths printed down the side, the ones made of cardboard to distract the media from reporting something else, or the ones a desperate PM throws their chancellor under to try to save her own (fleeting) time in office. So much choice!
Whatever your politics having a non white PM is a step forward
Back to politics, I think there's a good chance he'll crash & burn, especially if he tries to push more austerity, be interesting to see if he's able to get that voted through, will be toxic to red wallers, a few lunatic MPs ( fabricant, dories etc) will never forgive him for knifing Johnson
Overall I think he's a tougher opponent for Labour than any of the others, especially Johnson would've been.
He made several blunders as chancellor, seemed knee jerk libertarian over covid, which is a red flag.
Interesting times
I forgot to include in my long list of record breaking disasters currently facing the Tories the shortest-serving Prime Minister in UK history.
And with a new leader who was firmly rejected by their own membership less than two months ago, the Tories must surely be in the paradoxical situation of never being weaker than now despite being in government with a healthy majority.
And with a new leader who was firmly rejected by their own membership less than two months ago
In a vote that was much closer than predicted?
Whatever your politics having a non white PM is a step forward
Not as much as it might seem imo.
All non-white Tory MPs appear to have one thing in common apart from the fact that they aren't white - they are all on the right of the party, and some of them extremely right-wing.
I don't think that this is a weird unexplainable coincidence. The Tory Party has historically had racism deeply ingrained in it. As a consequence any Black or Asian party member wishing to progress in the party is faced with this handicap.
A Black or Asian party member standing before a Tory selection meeting has to offer something which overcomes this handicap. The obvious asset is their total commitment to pure conservativism and the zeal of a convert, that is the quality that is most likely to defeat a more liberal white One Nation Tory opponent.
With that in mind some of the big champions of the UK's deeply racist immigration and border policies have been Asian - Patel and Braverman.
Exactly half of all the candidates in the previous Tory leadership election were Black or Asian, all were from the right of the Party - if that is really a step forward it isn't a huge step forward imo.
Having said that it looks very likely that before the end of the day a European country will have an Asian practicing Hindu Prime Minister, which is particularly remarkable when you consider that last week Italy chose a fascist to become Prime Minister.
And today is Diwali, how fitting for the UK to chose a Hindu as PM today.
The first non-white PM in Uk history is certainly a thing to be lauded but a Tory millionaire non white! Do the two cancel each other out?
Sunak as PM provides an excellent opportunity.
And lets not forget, this is the man who couldn't beat Liz Truss when his campaigning skills were tested out in the real world. In that campaign he came across as an aloof, out of touch patronising elitist, which is hardly surprising given his personal circumstances.
Penny's team doing their best to emphasise her sound economic skills.
Whatever your politics having a non white PM is a step forward
Spare a though for all your friends and work collogues who have south Asian mums, who are going to get absolutely rinsed for their lack of ambition when Sunak becomes PM
Having said that it looks very likely that before the end of the day a European country will have an Asian practicing Hindu Prime Minister,
Not sure if he’s a practicing Hindu, but Ireland have had Leo Varadkar.
After her performance on Kuenssberg yesterday, I really couldn't say what Mordaunt's agenda was as she failed to answer a single question. I can only assume as a result that she has a sackful of deeply unpopular policies to unleash.
FWIW, I think Sunak would be a greater electoral liability for the Tories and I'm surprised that the PCP aren't backing Mordaunt.