Plane crash in the alps

It was already there, your brain was reading what it wanted to read. 😛 Some of you are quite angry today I must say.

I won’t make any more guesses as to the pilot or the events that happened, but I will reply to semi-related discussion.

geetee1972 – Member

How often do you fly?

Maybe once a quarter? Why do you ask? [/quote]

Probability as I fly 10 times a year.

One long distance for 18 hr plus then various 1 to 2 hours flight.

The airlines I flew with lost two planes and the other airline I flew with lost one. All within 3 years period.

Therefore, it is a concern to me who are flying the plane.

You might not but you have not experienced bumpy ride in the plane have you? 🙄

geetee1972 – Member

Nick – in the spirit of ‘we don’t know what really happened’, it’s also possible that Chewkw is reflecting some anger from somewhere else. He may also have lost someone in similar circumstances, i.e. someone else’s suicide took someone else with them.

His anger and attachment to this line of debate would be understandable in those circumstances. [/quote]

Okay, who in the above quotes are trying to rationalise and who is trying to be passive aggressive?

geetee1972 are you trying to be passive aggressive?

I have not lost anyone in the plane crash but my father did have a plane (military) crash while he was in RAF. Yes, he did. One of his colleague died I think. He was not destine to die that way and so were some of his colleagues. Nope, nobody committed suicide nor lost someone in such circumstances.

geetee1972, why are you making such personal assumption about my family members? I was commenting on the plane crash with my “rationale” and separating individual personal comments. Can you not distinguish that? 😯

There’s absolutely zero evidence of premeditation. Not a shred.

Does the fact that he possibly locked the pilot out of the cabin and then set the plane on a course that he knew would end in it’s destruction (and therefore the probable death of everyone on board) count as premeditation?
If ^ this was the scenario, he had about 7 minutes to change his mind, so it wouldn’t exactly have been a snap decision.

Probability as I fly 10 times a year.

One long distance for 18 hr plus then various 1 to 2 hours flight.

The airlines I flew with lost two planes and the other airline I flew with lost one. All within 3 years period.

Therefore, it is a concern to me who are flying the plane.

You might not but you have not experienced bumpy ride in the plane have you?

Srsly?

I fly a similar amount to you, but I’m wholly able to rationalise, and would happily fly GermanWings tomorrow, or Malaysian. I’ve been on some very bumpy flights in the last year. Really struggling with the relevance again. Do you just like reading your own words?

The drive to the airport is still by far the most dangerous part of the journey.

You might not but you have not experienced bumpy ride in the plane have you?

Ah you mean turbulence? Yep, that’s pretty normal, I don’t tend to worry about that.

So you fly once a month. My wife flies five days a week. Has over 8000 hours logged. So my concern with safety is as sharp as anyone’s and I have no concerns at all.

Any idea what the chances of you being killed in an aircrash are? Globally it’s 1 in 4.7million. Move somewhere like the US and that increases to 1 in 45 million. You could fly every single day for 123,000 years before being even involved in a fatal aircrash let alone killed in one.

So your one flight a month barely even registers.

I must say a couple of posters have turned this thread into a witch hunt, which is quite sad really. IMO that’s the point it crossed a line into bad taste.

Those responsible have made their opinions very clear, perhaps they should **** off duck out.

wow – it has finally happened I agree with njee20.

The drive to the airport is still by far the most dangerous part of the journey.

Per journeys as opposed to miles, flying is actually more dangerous.

njee20 – Member
Srsly?

I fly a similar amount to you, but I’m wholly able to rationalise, and would happily fly GermanWings tomorrow, or Malaysian. I’ve been on some very bumpy flights in the last year.

I will fly with them but at the back of my mind it will always be a concern.

🙁

The drive to the airport is still by far the most dangerous part of the journey.

A couple of months ago a truck driver came right up my ass in the motorway roadworks- lights on full beam then undertook me and part way realised that I was still in the middle lane as two feeder lanes from another motorway spew out into both into his lane at speed so he slew across sideways into my lane.

I stayed cool throughout.

I’d rather have that any day than get on a normal flight.

Flying in big commercial airlines scares me shitless. I’m not afraid to admit it. Before I board I probably have two or three big dumps. I scan everyone in the queue, I analyze every sound, I interpretate any staff hand signs as code for a problem. When I get off I feel like I’ve been reborn, given another chance. 😆

If you offered me a chance to get in a twin-seater plane with a 60-something year old pilot though? I’d jump at it. Mad.

geetee1972, why are you making such personal assumption about my family members?

Well because you were being so dogmatic and angry about this ‘mass murder’ thing (and pissing people off in the process) that I was trying to take a more understanding approach, cut you some slack and suggest there might be a reason for you being what was coming across as a bit of a knob. But since that’s not the case, I guess you’re just being…..well you can work it out.

That’s because you perceive a lack of control Hora, I **** hate flying on airliners – I enjoy flying gliders.

If something went wrong in a glider, there’s a good chance I could bail. In an airliner you are crammed into a flying bomb surrounded by smelly passengers and no way to escape. Gliding is probably more dangerous though, however humans are emotional beings more than they are rational beings.

geetee1972 – Member

You might not but you have not experienced bumpy ride in the plane have you?

Ah you mean turbulence? Yep, that’s pretty normal, I don’t tend to worry about that.

So you fly once a month. My wife flies five days a week. Has over 8000 hours logged. So my concern with safety is as sharp as anyone’s and I have no concerns at all.

Any idea what the chances of you being killed in an aircrash are? Globally it’s 1 in 4.7million. Move somewhere like the US and that increases to 1 in 45 million. You could fly every single day for 123,000 years before being even involved in a fatal aircrash let alone killed in one.

So your one flight a month barely even registers. [/quote]

You have no concerned but I am Not you. Can you understand that? Everyone sees things different? Yes?

Now applying the logic of probability then the likelihood of a plane crash is higher for your close one by comparison to ordinary folks is that right? Your being calm etc does not mean your logic makes sense to other without prior explanation of your wife or you as frequently flyer.

Yes, 1 in 47 million but what is Your probability?

geetee1972 – Member

geetee1972, why are you making such personal assumption about my family members?

Well because you were being so dogmatic and angry about this ‘mass murder’ thing (and pissing people off in the process) that I was trying to take a more understanding approach, cut you some slack and suggest there might be a reason for you being what was coming across as a bit of a knob. But since that’s not the case, I guess you’re just being…..well you can work it out.

Are they your family? I may be making comments but I have never attacked forum members’ family or make assumption about their family members. I only comments on forum users coz they are up to it.

You can called me what you like but do leave family members out will you? I am just be nice here …

I will fly with them but at the back of my mind it will always be a concern.

That’s your inability to rationalise. Entirely irrelevant. Like all your contributions here.

wow – it has finally happened I agree with njee20.

Don’t worry, there’ll be something to change that soon I’m sure 😉

Per journeys as opposed to miles, flying is actually more dangerous.

That’s a corking way to skew statistics though isn’t it!? How many times does the average person drive a car each year? 500? How many flights do they make? 2?

Per billion hours seems a more comparable metric, as I accept that the speed of a plane does bias deaths/km in favour of aviation:

Deaths per billion hours
Bus: 11.1
Rail: 30
Air: 30.8
Water: 50
Van: 60
Car: 130
Foot: 220
Bicycle: 550
Motorcycle: 4840
Space Shuttle: 63,128

Put it this way, if you took as many journeys in an airliner as you did in a car then you are more likely to end up in an aircraft accident. The risk per journey is supposedly about 3 times than driving. Geetees risk on that day of being in a car crash is lower than his subsequent flight risk, his lifetime risk for being involved in a car accident is much higher though.

they don’t get psychological screening. I’m not sure I know enough about the subject to state that there is any potential value to that being done mind,

I suppose i would become a case of knowing what you’re going to get asked each time it comes round . . . so can prefix your answers to suit what gets you through ??? ( I don’t know enough about the subject, but just a thought)

As for the copilot actions . . . what I wonder is how did he set the descent or instruct the plane to do so. I thought you were able to set either (or both) a height and/or a rate of descent / climb.

My point being, if the height was set all the way to zero from the 30k feet they were at, then thats clearly a singular act to bring down the plane.

But what if there was a problem such as the cabin pressure discussed earlier through which the co-pilot decided to instruct the plane to descend at a particular rate of descent, with the intention of levelling flight at a lower altitude, but passed out before being able to do so, or being able to let the pilot through the locked door, leaving the rate of descend unchanged until it hit the ground.

Both are deliberate acts to descend the plane, and have the same end result … but different intentions at the time of making the plane descend.

Put it this way, if you took as many journeys in an airliner as you did in a car then you are more likely to end up in an aircraft accident.

Yes, but it’s a stupid metric, because you’ll struggle to make a commercial flight of much under 30 minutes, and the vast majority of car journeys are significantly less than that. Deaths/hour is a much more comparable metric, and that shows car travel to be significantly more dangerous than air travel.

FWIW, deaths per billion journeys:

Deaths per billion journeys
Bus: 4.3
Rail: 20
Van: 20
Car: 40
Foot: 40
Water: 90
Air: 117
Bicycle: 170
Motorcycle: 1640
Space Shuttle: 14,925,373

Chewk I think you might have completely misunderstood me here. I was not attcking your family. I was being sensitive to something that might have happened to you that we don’t know about and would explain why you were saying what you were saying (which is that the pilot is a mass murderer).

I completely accept you might have a fear of flying. I accept that the more you fly the more likely you, statistically speaking, to be involved in an accident.

You’re just also being a little insensitive and dogmatic about this mass murderer thing.

Yes, but it’s a stupid metric, because you’ll struggle to make a commercial flight of much under 30 minutes, and the vast majority of car journeys are significantly less than that. Deaths/hour is a much more comparable metric, and that shows car travel to be significantly more dangerous than air travel.

Because a larger percentage of aircraft crash at or near takeoff, those that don’t likely carry on flying for another few hours. If there were more shorter journeys then this would likely change.

Because a larger percentage of aircraft crash at or near takeoff, those that don’t likely carry on flying for another few hours. If there were more shorter journeys then this would likely change.

Not enough to make car travel safer if you’re using an apples:apples comparison though.

Also, I’m not sure where you got those stats from as all the stats I’ve seen show them about even “per hour”.

Gotta say, the thought has only just occurred that some poor sod (or sods) has to listen to the CVR and make an educated guess as to what’s happened – a sobering thought, it’s not a patch compared to what the relatives of the crash victims must be going through, but what a horrible, harrowing way to earn your daily bread.

Also, I’m not sure where you got those stats from as all the stats I’ve seen show them about even “per hour”

Here and here.

but what a horrible, harrowing way to earn your daily bread.

The opposite, I bet its actually very interesting, and gives you a lot of job satisifaction. They are doing a job. Emotion doesnt come in to it, or you couldnt do the job.

it’s not a patch compared to what the relatives of the crash victims must be going through, but what a horrible, harrowing way to earn your daily bread.

As crash investigation jobs go I reckon it could be worse. A friend of mine is an expert* on on board fires – she helps piece together what happened from what’s left behind – plane and contents.

*A proper one, not an internet one.

From what I’ve read about the door lock, it requires action from within the cabin to stop an emergency code entered on the outside opening the door.
The reports so far indicate the co-pilot was breathing til the end.
Why press the descend button but not communicate with ATC.

Emotion doesnt come in to it, or you couldnt do the job.

Yeah, I think that’s where I’d fail.

njee20 – Member
Put it this way, if you took as many journeys in an airliner as you did in a car then you are more likely to end up in an aircraft accident.
Yes, but it’s a stupid metric, because you’ll struggle to make a commercial flight of much under 30 minutes, and the vast majority of car journeys are significantly less than that. Deaths/hour is a much more comparable metric, and that shows car travel to be significantly more dangerous than air travel.

There are dozens of flights under 30mins – ANY within the Canary islands are less than 20 including takeoff/landing.
Plenty even within the UK can be that too.

They could hear him turning the crank to disable the autopilot. He was breathing until the end. Shocking.

http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flying/notes/safetyvsdriving.html

Sadly the co pilot died as did his passengers, and fellow staff,until we know what happened and why, its so sad to call the co pilot a mass murderer.

The families and freinds of those involved will be grieving for their loss of loved ones.

Lets also not forget the Moorgate incident 40 years ago when a tube train driver failed to stop at a dead end underground station , 40 people where killed, then, and no mechanical problems where found.

There are reasons for most things, its just the time it takes to find out what happened.

Statistically it’s a tiny bit safer than it was.

geetee1972 – Member

Chewk I think you might have completely misunderstood me here. I was not attcking your family. I was being sensitive to something that might have happened to you that we don’t know about and would explain why you were saying what you were saying (which is that the pilot is a mass murderer).

Ok.

I completely accept you might have a fear of flying. I accept that the more you fly the more likely you, statistically speaking, to be involved in an accident.

Ok.

You’re just also being a little insensitive and dogmatic about this mass murderer thing.

Ok. I shall stop that. 😀

There are dozens of flights under 30mins – ANY within the Canary islands are less than 20 including takeoff/landing.
Plenty even within the UK can be that too.

Yeah the length of the trip isn’t really significant, a long flight has about the same risk as a short flight. Hence the use of “per hours” doesn’t paint a complete picture of the risks involved with flying.

Folks,

I shall STOP the reference to mass murderer.

🙁

edit: … wait for the outcome of the investigation …

Folks,

I shall STOP the reference to mass murderer.

WTF. Why post that!? You must just be trolling. Seriously, piss off. I can’t believe I’m wearing out my keyboard on you.

Yeah the length of the trip isn’t really significant, a long flight has about the same risk as a short flight. Hence the use of “per hours” doesn’t paint a complete picture of the risks involved with flying.

Where we’re ending up is that there isn’t really a way to compare the two, hardly surprising given how different they are as modes of transport. However it remains that statistically speaking you are more likely to die en route to the airport, than when on the plane.

Tom,

Do me a favour, and stick to bikes or something you know about. You’re really demonstrating your ignorance of aviation matters and this isn’t the thread or medium to be spouting such nonsense given the horrific allegations associated with this crash.

Thank you.

You can twist the stats anyway you like, but one I read went along the lines of: if you chose to fly a scheduled flight anywhere in the world every day at random, on average it would be 280,000 years before you were involved in an incident or accident. And then the chances are you’d survive.

It may seem like air crashes are more common than the used to be, but the accident rate is falling and much smaller than it was even 5 years ago. The reason there are more accidents is due to the huge growth in passenger traffic. If you applied the same accident rates we had 10 or 15 years ago, by now there should be an air crash every week. But safety has improved at a faster rate than growth so flying is getting safer despite thousands more flights every day.

Deaths per billion journeys stat doesn’t say anything about safety. That is just an indication of your risk of death should you be involved in an accident. The point about the safety of flying is that you are extremely unlikely to be involved in an accident at all.

No consolation to those involved in crashes though.

allthepies,

Yup – agreed about contacting ATC. Strange set of circumstances all round I suppose.

Slightly different aspect on the topic, but I had a long chat with an air traffic controller about black boxes, and the importance of them being able to survive … then be found as well. (think of MH370) We came up with the notion that planes should have an ability to emergency broadcast their live data when the plane thinks its in an emergency situation ( such as collision warnings, sharp dives, engine failures etc) and that planes should be able to listen out and record any emergency broadcasts they receive whilst flying. That way, when the plane is crashing, others in the air are capturing the data in a manner that is going to all but guarantee will be available at an early stage.

njee20 – Member

Folks,
I shall STOP the reference to mass murderer.

WTF. Why post that!? You must just be trolling. Seriously, piss off. I can’t believe I’m wearing out my keyboard on you.[/quote]

😛 No, not trolling as my assumption was based on the announcement but I think my reference might put people off so better stop and wait for the final investigation.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think Chewkw is Fred’s latest alias?