Osbourne says no to currency union.

@ gob If i cannot assume then why can you ? You are guessing you have no quotes to back it up.

The minister has been clear that the issue of Scotland and catalonia are not the same as one is constitutionally allowed

“If the two parts of the United Kingdom are in agreement that [Scottish independence] is in accord with their constitutional arrangement, written or unwritten, Spain would have nothing to say, we would simply maintain that it does not affect us.”

Mr García-Margallo reminded the press that “the [Spanish] Constitution is based upon the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation.” He added: “The constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom are one thing, those of Spain another, and it is their own business if they decide to separate from one another.”
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/4428-spanish-foreign-minister-confirms-that-spain-would-accept-scottish-independence

was alos reported in the guardian as well

fuller explanation of their position here

Spain is unlikely to veto an independent Scotland’s EU membership

TBH we cannot be certain but if you wish to state the spanish position coudl you use their words rather than you thoughts without evidence?

IMHO they wont block as they wish to

By distinguishing the Scottish case from those in Spain, the Spanish government aims to place its own voice to be the determinant for the cases of Catalonia and the Basque Country. An independent Scottish state could be recognised and accepted as a new member of the EU because its independence would have been achieved ‘in accordance with the legal and institutional procedures’ and with the support of the UK government. In the Spanish government’s view these two interrelated requirements – accordance with the domestic legal framework and approval from the central state – are not met in the case of Catalonia.

Not a spanish politicians view to be clear.

re the other point they do need to apply but the fact is they will apply whilst a member and this is a difference that will likely make it easier and faster to join

TBH we cannot be certain

Brilliant, we’re on the same hymn sheet!

Now, whats plan B if they do?

whats plan B if they do?

we cannot be certain 😉

TBH we cannot be certain but if you wish to state the spanish position coudl you use their words rather than you thoughts without evidence?

I said

Besides, they have a very strong position when it comes to negotiation regarding Scottish entry into the EU, why would they show their hand early?

I’ll ask you again why would they?

You can bet that if they think Scotland getting into the EU will strengthen calls for an independent Catalonia, then they will do what they can to prevent it.

So you disagree with that statement?

Spain don’t want an independent Catalonia and will use what ever political levers they can to prevent it.

It’s politics, facts and evidence don’t always come into it.

We don’t interfere in other countries’ internal affairs.

is a but like saying

I did not have sexual intercourse with that woman

either it’s blatantly not true or you’ve done something so similar that everyone thinks you did the act itself and you’re being very technical about it

the fact is they will apply whilst a member

I’ve checked again, and Scotland still isn’t a member of the EU

Junkyard – lazarus

whats plan B if they do?

we cannot be certain 😉

Come on, its a serious question

you commented yesterday that the No side was prone to dismiss the wish for democracy as romantic and fanciful and mock it with cry “freedom”.

But you’re fuelling the fire by making pretend that it doesn’t matter that you might be thrown out of Europe, it would destroy everything that has been claimed for an independent Scotland, to have not covered or planned for the possibility and expect people to vote in favour of Yes in blind faith without the future administration even covering the bases is ridiculous!

A whole lifetime they’ve had to plan for this moment – and they can’t say what happens if just one of 27 other countries says ‘hold your horses’!

You’re aware that yesterday a petition of 750,000 names got handed to the Catalan Parliament calling for a Unilateral Declaration of Independence?

Why is there a shock that Salmond is lying about the NHS? It’s wholly consistent. Been in France for past 24 hours but funny to hear on the radio coming back from Heathrow that Sturgeon and Swinney were hosting a rally/event from a FABRICATION plant in Glasgow. How utterly appropriate.

Yes – less independence, NHS at great risk, higher costs etc….it’s all chaos and based on lies and deceit. Shocking.

gobuchul – Member

Spain don’t want an independent Catalonia and will use what ever political levers they can to prevent it.

Perhaps. But preventing Scotland joining the EU won’t prevent Catalonian independence, at best it could weaken the movement. It will on the other hand sink a good chunk their fishing industry, as they’re heavily dependent on north sea fishing, and would lose all rights to fish in Scottish waters. Old story but still true.

Can anyone give me a good reason why the suggestion that Spain would veto Scottish membership comes from lots of places but never comes from Spain? If you accept that Spain are keen to prevent scottish independence, why wouldn’t they state now that they’ll veto EU membership? It’d be a real blow to the Yes campaign. Waiting serves no Spanish purpose.

why wouldn’t they state now that they’ll veto EU membership? It’d be a real blow to the Yes campaign. Waiting serves no Spanish purpose.

They stated many times that they will not interfere in another countries business. This is because they don’t want anyone interfering in theirs, especially with reference to Catalonia.

gobuchul – Member

They stated many times that they will not interfere in another countries business.

That’s an argument why they won’t veto- it’s not an argument for why they might veto, but keep it a secret.

Maybe I’m not expressing this well. Spain has something to gain by Scotland being in the EU. It also has something to gain by Scotland remaining in the UK.

But what has it to gain from Scotland being independent, but not within the EU? That’s the only outcome they can obtain by keeping quiet now then vetoing later.

Came across this when looking for info on Scottish fishing.

Scottish fishing waters

Scottish First Minister warned that 12 countries could be barred from his country’s waters and would not even be allowed to pass through to reach Norwegian waters if an independent Scotland was refused European Union (EU) membership.

This just shows what a BS he really is. That is against international law and they would be obliged to allow safe and free passage through their waters. He spouts so much nonsense.

That’s an argument why they won’t veto- it’s not an argument for why they might veto, but keep it a secret.

As I stated earlier. Why would they show their hands early?
It will become their business when EU membership for Scotland has an effect on them.

@Northwind – fishing waters, are those still 12 miles offshore or is it further these days. I have a vague memory that the large waters are an agreement within the EU.

I wasn’t saying stalling or even blocking Scotland’s membership would prevent Catalan independence just send them a clear message that it would be a very tough slog. There seems very little downside to Spain (or others) doing this.

On another point I wonder what the world must think of the Scots who seem to be arguing with just about everyone and in denial over EU membership, currency and many other points. Are they thinking this is a country we want to do business with or are they thinking “no wonder the Romans built a wall” 🙂

Just been thinking. With so much at stake either way, a couple of million Scots are going to be pretty glum on Friday. I know how it feels to be on the losing side in an election, and it’s not nice. However for me it’s usually only for five years; this time it’s going to be at least 20 years and if the no side lose it’ll be forever.

Who ever it is, you have my sympathy. Jut wanted to say that before the result.

ninfan the reason there was no pre negotiation was so pro unionists can argue as you are doing[ to be fair so AS coudld say any old guff as well]. All you are showing is that neither of us can predict hypothetically what would happen if hypothetically this happened etc.
Its fair to say a vote yes is to some degre ea leap in the dark but so is no as the future EU issue for the UK is just as unknown
NW questions is a better one tbh the Spanish veto has no source bit the no voters claims.

FWIW you are correct that it would not be desirable and it would be tricky but beyond that I am not sure why you value my guess.

I’ve checked again, and Scotland still isn’t a member of the EU

Checks passport – see places of birth sees it is an EU one strokes chin

@gobochul: Yeah, that was total pish- EU members would lose access to Scottish waters but would have the right to travel through, big mistake from Salmond there. (and annoyingly, the point on Scottish waters stands by itself but ended up getting undermined by the mistake). Ironically, it ends up being one of the arguments for making a seamless transition from UK-EU to Scotland-EU, it’s not just to the detriment of Scotland to have a slow process.

I think I might have edited while you were posting- answered your question in the post above. This isn’t showing their cards early- if they leave it any later, this hand’s not worth playing at all.

Why would they show their hands early?

Why would they hide it?

You accept they have not said anything to support your view but you cling to it because they have no need to show their hand early? Its cluthching at starws

the reason that angelina Jolie has not said she will leave brad for me is because she does not want to show her hand too early. Convinced?

That is against international law

what international law means you have to grant access to anyone who wants to enter your territorial waters?

the reason there was no pre negotiation

What has pre-negotiation got to do with the Spanish veto?

All you are showing is that neither of us can predict hypothetically what would happen if hypothetically this happened etc.

All the more reason to present a Plan B then! The SNP know that there will either be a Veto, or no Veto, a binary scenario that is not in their control – why on earth, just at what moment in the planning process, do you decide to ignore one of the two possible outcomes?

Been away all weekend at a stag in berlin, so just been catching up on what’s been happening over the weekend, pictures from Buchanan street were immense, gutted I missed that. And as per seems this thread is a mile away from reality. Still cracking out the scare stories! 😆

Some new news for today, Shetland news declares for independence.
http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

Its happening! 🙂

so its a binary choice and you want to know what Plan B is 😯

Everyone says greater centralisation is inevitable, but no-one seems to be able to give any basis for that other than ‘grrr Tory scum’

what international law means you have to grant access to anyone who wants to enter your territorial waters?

UNCLOS

SECTION 3. INNOCENT PASSAGE IN THE TERRITORIAL SEA

Don’t know a lot about maritime law do you?

Of course

We get EU membership by day one of independence – we are going to do plan A, everyone happy
we don’t get EU membership on day one – we are going to do plan B, everyone happy

Seven P’s!

However what we have at the moment is

We get EU membership by day one of independence – we are going to do plan A, everyone happy
we don’t get EU membership on day one – erm…

ps:

You might like to see whats just gone up in Madrid

😀

Don’t know a lot about maritime law do you?

Nothing at all. FWIW I find asking questions, when i dont know anything, quite useful

You?

Oh and thanks

jambalaya – Member

@Northwind – fishing waters, are those still 12 miles offshore or is it further these days.

It’s the EEZ for fisheries.

On the subject of fishing rights, if there is a yes vote most of the fish stocks that were in UK waters would now be in Scottish waters (~95% of UK total of pelagic fish landed in Scotland). That means that the UK suddenly becomes disadvantaged due to a change in its geography, luckily UNCLOS also has a section on that;

1. Geographically disadvantaged States shall have the right to participate, on an equitable basis, in the exploitation of an appropriate part of the surplus of the living resources of the exclusive economic zones of coastal States of the same subregion or region, taking into account the relevant economic and geographical circumstances of all the States concerned and in conformity with the provisions of this article and of articles 61 and 62.
2. For the purposes of this Part, “geographically disadvantaged States” means coastal States, including States bordering enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, whose geographical situation makes them dependent upon the exploitation of the living resources of the exclusive economic zones of other States in the subregion or region for adequate supplies of fish for the nutritional purposes of their populations or parts thereof, and coastal States which can claim no exclusive economic zones of their own.

I have just realised that this thread will not die on Sat but will rumble on for 18 months if yes, however long till the next ref if no.

Checks passport – see places of birth sees it is an EU one strokes chin

Your passport says “Scotland” for place of birth? Mine just gives a town in the UK. Though clearly you could have been born outside the EU and still have a UK passport, so it doesn’t really prove anything – it appears that even when Scotland is independent and not in the EU that its citizens will still be able to hold EU passports.

Well how else will we get to 1000 pages?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html

Yeah, yeah – it’s free advertising just like Fred Done does with BetFred.

..But has anyone been brave enough to place any money on the outcome of this yet?

what international law means you have to grant access to anyone who wants to enter your territorial waters?

Nothing at all. FWIW I find asking questions, when i dont know anything, quite useful

That wasn’t really a question though was it? It was suggesting that no such law exists.

You?

A lot about some little bits and a little about about most of it. I’m not a lawyer though by any means.

I thought about betting on Yes when the odds were worse than they are now, but to be honest the shift in odds also reflect the shift in what I perceive to be the likelihood of the result.

It was suggesting that no such law exists.

It was not meant to read as such, sorry. I can see why you have read it as such.

I have just realised that this thread will not die on Sat but will rumble on for 18 months if yes, however long till the next ref if no.

The most compelling reason to vote no I have ever read

I’ve just realised that I’ve not made contingency plans for a No vote. What will I do with my time when this thread is no more, and my FB feed is no longer filled with TJ making comments on independence stuff?

(actually I’m not sure a No vote will make TJ shut up 😉 )

Telling him what you said # grass

I second @molgrips best wishes to those on both sides.

As I posted before in the event of a Yes I think there are, sooner or later, going to be a lot of people in the UK who will be unhappy when they realise taxes will have to go up to pay for all the fixed cost/size infrastructure we have which will have to be paid for by 55m people not 60m. The effect of this is going to be seen in any negotiations. I saw a poll which said 63% of UK where against a currency union, 13% for. I imagine a similar stance will exist on a range of issues. Politicians will not ignore that.

The Butterfly Rebeillion

The lairds came to warn us villagers to do as we were told. Then the lords came to warn us villagers to do as we were told. But we were in the fields building a rebellion.

We have now seen, on shaky mobile phone footage, the moment the British Empire finally ended. It ended with two guys on a rickshaw chasing 100 Labour MPs up Buchannan Street playing the Imperial March from Star Wars and informing bemused shoppers that their Imperial Masters Had Arrived. These imperial ‘masters’ have no guns. They rule through deference. Without it they look exactly like what they are; overpaid middle management on a team building away day. (“OK, to get the day started, an icebreaker. Let’s all try and walk up a normal street like we are normal people. No team, not like that. Like NORMAL people.”)

The Daily Record looks on, its panties wet with excitement. “It’s Gordon! It’s Ed! It’s John! It’s Harriet!’. Never in the field of all human endeavour has the Daily Record seen such wonder – a hundred Labour MPs here! How they must love us! How bright must be a future illuminated by their radiating glory! Don’t think, Scotland; gawp.

Down the street a little, a young woman and her pal see Ed, Douglas and Johann radiating away. Spontaneously, armed with a mobile phone an a pram they go for an interview. Douglas and Johann spout soundbites unrelated to the questions asked. Ed looks on blankly. Oh Britannia, once you conquered continents with your might. Now a lassie with a phone has you on the run.

The inky wing of the British Empire does not know what to do. Historians will psychoanalyse the columns of Alan Cochrane in the Telegraph, monitoring their descent from pompous, self-certain swagger to incoherent, panicked meltdown. The Times, the Scotsman, the Mail, the Express, all peer out at Scotland from behind their barbed wire. “We’ve threatened the price of beans, we’ve threatened the cost of mortgages, we’ve told them they won’t have Strictly, we’ve told them they can’t have an NHS. That’s the sum total of their dreams and aspirations. So why won’t these **** Scots STAY DOWN?”

In a room behind a locked door, behind a policeman, behind a gate, behind another policeman, a group of millionaires get together. One, an old Etonian, nominally runs the country. The others, the CEOs of big corporations, actually run the country. They decide on a strategy: terror. We. Will. Take. Your. THINGS. From. You. It’s a fair trade, of sorts – give up your chance of self-determination and in return we will give you the cheap things that you love. This is Britain.

In other news, if you look closely, Scotland has just seen the highest proportion of its population in its history registered to vote. Ninety-seven per cent. No-one ‘gave’ them that vote. The people new to the electoral register had to put themselves there. With the most almighty help from the Radical Independence Campaign and many more. A 72 year old man who has never voted before. A woman who ran out of her house in her pyjamas when she was told she wasn’t too late. Streets of working class people being told by Yes activists on the final day of registration that it was their last chance, them phoning their friends, going round to their neighbours doors to get them out too. Long queues outside the registration office. All barely reported. In fact, the arch-unionist political editor of the Herald managed to run a front-page story claiming none of this happened. When his story turned out to be the hopes of a British nationalist and not an accurate reflection of Scotland in 2014, the real story – highest number of people registered to vote in Scotland’s history – did not manage to make it onto the front page.

(The No campaign didn’t have a voter registration campaign.)

But at least your celebrities love us, though with a provincial love which requires no more than two brief paragraphs to explain. It is a love they express without feeling which they believe we should receive with gratitude. Every newspaper in Scotland told us how sincere David Cameron was when he spoke of his love of the Scottish people. In a speech given to a selected group of senior figures from the financial services sector.

And beneath all this, its cause – an official No campaign so incompetent at every level, so hopelessly out of touch with its nation that it brags about the size of its phone banks. Fifty thousand Scots a week on the streets knocking doors and handing out leaflets for Yes and they’ve got phone banks. What is this – 1997? What else have they got? Pagers? Spice Girls albums? It is not that these people are stupid. It is that they really, really believed we were. A Better Together ‘I’m voting No because…’ film is never more than 40 seconds long. They all consist of platitudes. Better together. Best of both worlds. Risk and volatility.

In their world it makes perfect sense to produce a short film targeting women which is predicated on a middle-class mother who is so disinterested in politics that she can’t even recall the name of the First Minister of Scotland. It explains the lobotomised Orwellian nature of a billboard campaign that says “I love my children so I’m voting NO”. Everything they touch falls apart. And then there is a desperate rescue attempt of some sort or another.

Send up Ed.

Get David to emote.

Ask the supermarkets to issue threats.

Beg the banks to relocate.

Just hope the Scots really are as stupid as we think. Because if they see through this shit they’ll realise we’re finished.

The scope and scale of the collapse of the No campaign is obscured only by the refusal of the print media wing of their campaign to report it.

BBC political editor Nick Robinson, a good establishment boy, had his chance to humiliate Salmond in front of the world’s media when he got to ask a pompous question about corporation tax. Unfortunately, he had completely misunderstood how corporation tax works. Salmond gave him a seven minute lesson which left him humiliated in front of the world’s media. In an undignified turn he starts heckling Salmond. At night in his news report he shows only his question (he’d clearly taken some time to prepare that humiliating blow…) and editorialises that Salmond refused to answer. Does he think we didn’t see? Is he unaware that social media exists?

This campaign has tested the British establishment. The more it loses this campaign, the greater the test. I am truly amazed at how weak it has been, how pathetic its response. Caught somewhere between mad hyperbole about independence being a bigger threat to the world than the Great Depression and the pointless mundanity of ‘your shopping bill may go up by literally pennies’, is this seriously all its got?

The BBC, the banks, the newspapers, the supermarkets, the Labour Party, the Tories, the generals, the civil servants. Between them they can’t muster up either a persuasive case for the union or a believable threat.

Us? We’re over 350 totally independent campaigns, each set up by activists, each self-funded, none centrally controlled. We don’t pay too much attention to the media but learn and research from the internet. We hold meetings (I’ve spoken at coming on for 250 public meetings in the last two years). We are the most informed citizens in the world right now. I left a meeting in Hamilton Miners’ Welfare and a retired labourer caught me on the stairs and quizzed me about what I thought the position would be with ten year bond yields in an independent Scotland. Kids can talk you through the details of the Shengen arrangement. Most of us can run you through the constitutional position of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Unit.

I love my family so I’m voting No? **** off. **** right off.

For those of you who aren’t in Scotland you may not be aware that almost the whole British establishment is now placing its hopes on Gordon Brown. ‘He gets them’ (they think). ‘They like him’ (they think). His tendency to believe that Scotland is just nascent Nazi Germany doesn’t phase them. It’s like the moment when the Labour Party thought that the most compelling person they had to buy a sausage roll from Greggs was Ed Balls. Which was only true because Ed Milliband was behind him in the queue.

And that has become what this campaign really is – Gordon Brown swinging his big, clunking fist at a thousand butterflies. All grunt, no connection.

Because that’s what we are – a thousand butterflies. None of us is strong. The guy with the mobile phone and an MP3 player terrorising the Parliamentary Labour Party with a Darth Vader gag. The young mother making the Labour leadership look like they can’t talk to real people. A hundred brilliant jokes about David Bowie. Wish trees. Hand-made posters. The RIC leaflets we paid for by a load of £5 contributions which much of working class Scotland has had through their letterbox telling them what they know already – Britain is for the rich, Scotland can be ours.

We are a campaign held together with sticky tape and goodwill. We’re all broke (we give all our money away). We’re all exhausted (we’ve haven’t rested in two years). None of us is scared. None of us needs anyone’s permission. And we never underestimate the people of Scotland.

This is like nothing I’ve ever seen. We have barely a single institution on our side, barely a newspaper, and damn few millionaires. And they are truly petrified of us.

A butterfly rebellion is coming close to winning Scotland away from the forces of the British state. I think we’ll do it, but either way, they can’t beat us. We are already half of Scotland and we keep growing. They are weak and we are strong. When the people of Britain see their titans defeated by a rebel army who used infographics and humour, what is there to stop them following? England needs its butterfly rebellion as well.

The lairds came to tell us what was good for us. The lords came to tell us what was good for us. In the fields, we already knew what was good for us. Not this. Not Britain. Our rebels grabbed whatever they had and did whatever they could.

You can’t beat a thousand butterflies with a gun. But you can beat a gun with a thousand butterflies.

I struggle with long sentences

EDIT- hehe. Cheeky.

OK then. I.N.R.A.T.S.

To Precis

FREEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
HTH

To be fair, that is a great bit of creative writing. Very stirring. But it does nothing to dispel the notion that this is a vote between romantic idealists and hard headed realists.

We have barely a single institution on our side

Apart from the Scottish Government?