Osbourne says no to currency union.

It won’t work out that way – there will be an intergovernmental agreement that shifts liability onto the Scottish state

The Scottish government has already committed to take responsibility for pensions, From Scotlands Future;

“for those people living in Scotland in receipt of the UK State Pension at the time of independence, the responsibility for the payment of that pension will transfer to the Scottish Government”

I like the section on energy policy in the Herald report. Basically Scotland is reliant on the UK to keep energy bills down. Surely another advantage of union If we keep touting wind as Scotlands energy production we surely have to pay the cost.

The close cooperation that nats keep talking about is called being in the UK.

So basically they’re all talking bollocks on that website then

First Minister Alex Salmond dismissed the new estimates anything which doesn’t agree with his dream, no matter how well researched as “stuff and nonsense”.

Welcoming the report, Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: “Where we can sensibly and practically retain mutually beneficial arrangements, such as maintaining single markets in electricity and gas, of course, this is the best be the way to proceed. We don’t want to be independent”

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-new-poll-shows-3841641

The average yes vote since May is 35%. The average no vote is 46%. An ipsos mori STV poll last week put the no vote at 54%. There has not been a poll this year that has the yes vote in the lead. It would appear that the separatists still have a lot of work to do.

They have always been behind but it is pretty close and hinges on the undecided / turn out.

First Minister Alex Salmond dismissed the new estimates anything which doesn’t agree with his dream, no matter how well researched as “stuff and nonsense”

Is this better or worse than the UK using figures even the source said had been abused to the point is misrepresentation?

Politicians lying over figures SHOCKA

Is this better or worse than the UK using figures even the source said had been abused to the point is misrepresentation?

Misrepresentation by the SNP perhaps? Here’s what the UK government actually said (my bold)

“Professor Robert Young has examined the potential costs of independence in modern industrial states. Whilst recognising that the costs of transition can be exaggerated or downplayed in the course of political debate, his independent analysis in relation to Quebec, shows that the costs of institutional restructuring in the event of independence could range from 0.4 per cent to 1 per cent of the new country’s GDP. 1 per cent of Scottish GDP in 2012-13 is equivalent to £1.5 billion or around £300 for every person in Scotland.”
“The Institute for Government (IfG) and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) estimate the average cost for a new policy department or a mid-sized merger to be approximately £15 million. In Scotland’s Future,3 the Scottish Government estimate that 300 institutions currently serve Scotland, of which 180 would need to be recreated or have powers transferred to a Scottish institution following independence. If this cost were incurred for all 180 organisations, the total cost would be £2.7 billion. Given these estimates, £1.5 billion is likely to be a favourable estimate of the total costs of setting up new institutions.”

So, they didn’t claim the setup costs would be 2.7billion, which is what Dunleavy was running to the press complaining about; perhaps he had a reason to get his name in the papers, maybe a book release to publicise?

Then, following a ‘briefing’ at Bute house with Salmond and Sturgeon he comes up with his own “guesstimate” of costs;

“Based on detailed work on the costs of Whitehall reorganizations, and our analysis of major tasks set out above, we have estimated the set-up costs for Scottish government as being in the range from £150 million to £200 million.”

So the Yessers jump up and down with glee – 2.7billion, bluff and bluster, it will only cost 200million. But hold on what’s this in the following section of his report;

“the Scottish government would need to pay £400 million to create new IT systems and processes to handle all welfare benefits itself – which is targeted to happen by 2018 (see timetable above); and
– they would need to pay £500 million to create IT systems capable of handling all their tax administration – the main bulk of which is due to happen by 2020.

These estimates are not based on any careful analysis, but given prevailing IT and change costs they do not seem implausible.”

So that’s 200m+400m+500m=1.1billion after being briefed on what to say by the SNP – not so far away from the Westminster estimate, so who misrepresented what?

the Scottish government would need to pay £400 million to create new IT systems and processes to handle all welfare benefits itself – which is targeted to happen by 2018 (see timetable above); and
– they would need to pay £500 million to create IT systems capable of handling all their tax administration – the main bulk of which is due to happen by 2020.

So how are they going to collect tax and handle benefits between 2020 and 2018. Are they expecting the UK to do it for them? I wonder how much we can charge them for this? It also does away with the bluff, bullying and bluster from Salmond regarding not paying a share of UK debt if he doesn’t get a currency union. No debt means no tax or welfare systems.

“So how are they going to collect tax and handle benefits between 2020 and 2018. “

Probably the same way England intends to disburse development aid, administer benefits, loan money to students etd during the same period. Some people are forgetting that UK government facilities and employees located in Scotland provide services to the whole UK. It’s not all one way traffic and the UK can’t just “cut Scotland off” without cutting itself off from certain services.

In other words, in the event of independence both countries are going to have to act like grown ups to get what they want done.

Out of adversity…..? In addition to sorting out the above canny Scottish entrepreneurs could have lots of new opportunities. A new sweaty NS&I for example providing domestic premium bonds…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/10962647/NSandI-to-bar-Scottish-savers-if-they-vote-for-independence.html

(In the meantime, adds NS&I to the list)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/725a5f86-085a-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de.html#axzz37EZ1obco

Interesting article on the SNP and it’s well-oiled machine. One thing that AS “does” do well.

Some people are forgetting that UK government facilities and employees located in Scotland provide services to the whole UK. It’s not all one way traffic and the UK can’t just “cut Scotland off” without cutting itself off from certain services.

Are there any UK government departments with their offices and facilities located solely in Scotland?

I mean if we were talking abut Wales, then you could see a problem, with pretty much the entire UK DVLA infrastructure being in Swansea, it would create a huge problem – however if we were talking mainly satellite offices and call centres, then the main bulk of facilities still in the UK could gear up their existing operations to absorb the workload, its hardly like having to create an entirely new infrastructure from the ground up, like Scotland would have to.

In other words, in the event of independence both countries are going to have to act like grown ups to get what they want done.

STW not invited to the this debate then 😉

THM NS & I are not saying a single thing about the vote or independence whay ar eyou suggesting they are siding with you or deserve to be on “the list”?

A spokesman said: “In the event of Scottish independence current rules would prevent anyone with only a Scottish bank account from buying NS&I products.”

That is what they have actually said. As currently banks are corss border and the USB said than none of the Scottish banks will stay in Scotland [ I assume you still want to cite them ] then no one will be affected by this.

Utter non story and utterly not saying anything about an independence vote.
Please dont insult me just counter this with some actual quotes that shows or supports your claim that they are “on the list” or retract [ yes like that bit will happen]

Awaits personal insults for pointing out a factual inaccuracy/misleading comment
🙄

Probably the same way England intends to disburse development aid, administer benefits, loan money to students etd during the same period.

The student loans company is 85% owned by the UK government with offices also in England and Wales. So no problems for us there then.
You won’t be able to collect your own tax. Your wallet is in our pocket and if you don’t play ball in negotiations then we won’t let you have any pocket money. More seriously the UK has a much stronger hand in negotiations as a result of this.

Article in the i newspaper yesterday about the Edinburgh Fringe.
Apparently – & according to “several Scottish comedians who declined to give their names” the subject of The Vote is verboten in comedic circles because of the over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known, pointing to the hysterical reaction to JK Rowling’s donation to the No campaign and the Glaswegian comic Susan Calman.

No experience of this of course, just an article in the paper.

Interesting. So at the previous poll yS needed to convince 65% of the undecideds (11/17), now they need to convince 69% (9/13). The bust up figures are also quite illuminating – as Prof Curtice (an academic based in Scotland, clearly not to be trusted) says “they (yes voters) are more likely to find that their friends disagree with them.”

As far as voting intentions goes, plus ca change.

If that polling is indicating anything, it’s an approaching worst case scenario of a narrow(ish) No vote.

I personally can live with either a yes or no vote (preferably yes admittedly), but I’d rather it was a convincing result either way. No matter what happens, there doesn’t seem like the losing side will be happy with the result.

A replay of the Norwegian independence referendum it won’t be.

over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known

Whereas the No supporters are always calm, reasonable and well-mannered?

Tweets by BritNatAbuseBot

Anyway, have we done Question Time yet?

That’s right Ben that cyberno gang are a menace to the intelligent debate that cybernats are trying to have 😉 Well done for pointing out one example that is obviously representative of the scots that will vote no. As for the twitter account if only all of those people saying Scotland should leave the union were Scottish then you might stand a chance of actually getting enough votes for independence. But then all yes supporters only ever really wanted was devo-max. Salmond wants to share practically every UK institution because it makes sense for both sides. Most Scots interpret this as we are better together.

….and they are correct.

It really is quite funny in a way – I thought you were exaggerating when you first argued that line, but it does seem the case that actually they’d like to be independent whilst still being reliant upon rUK 🙄

That’s the elephant in the room aracer. No one is arguing for independence not even yS. The CUnion is the most extreme example of this but is not the only one. Better together is what all sides are arguing.

Beyond that, it has become little more than a vanity project.

Indeed it is an interesting point that the more you scrutinise what he argues for it is clear he is not arguing for complete independence. IMHO it is devo max [ at best]

Article in the i newspaper yesterday about the Edinburgh Fringe.
Apparently – & according to “several Scottish comedians who declined to give their names” the subject of The Vote is verboten in comedic circles because of the over the top reaction and threats of violence they fear they would face from yS supporters should they make their thoughts known, pointing to the hysterical reaction to JK Rowling’s donation to the No campaign and the Glaswegian comic Susan Calman

One sided view there.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/lottery-winners-call-for-end-to-independence-smear-1-3402533

Lottery winners realising a statement about the abuse [ from the no obviously] they got for their donation for example

Surveys show that the % who have been abused/argued /fallen out are roughly equivalent from both sides so polemic point at best.

FWIW its always easy to attribute quotes and information to “well know people who wont give their names”…bit like the mail claimed a Close family member told them about clooney

In general i ignore stuff in papers where they say things like that as it is generally made up.

You won’t be able to collect your own tax. Your wallet is in our pocket

I think you’ve made a mistake about who I represent and where I do it from.

The whole abuse and death threats thing seems ridiculous to me – from both sides. Its this deep ill feeling that is being generated that worries me and why i want it done and dusted. As its going we will end up with a narrow No vote and the ensuing bitter fallout will poison Scottish/UK relations for yrs to come. Worst of all possible outcomes.

Agreed – despite hoping for a no vote, I almost think a narrow yes vote might be better than a narrow no vote.

JY. It does sound like devo max is what Salmond. Is it actually devo max though to hand over so much control to a parliament that Scotland will have no representation at what so ever? (Awaits somebody with usual line on no representation now).

It is a fact devo max within UK is what most Scots want, and UK parties have put down proposals, all being bombed by the SNP. To say proposals will not be honoured is only opinion.

My opinion unlike those that think the UK only exists to bleed Scotland dry, is that reform will happen otherwise Scotland will be lost to the union in 10-20 years. That is why those that vote yes will not and should not be ignored. I fell though that this sentiment is not generally reciprocated. I agree though with the sentiments expressed in the Weir’s statement.

I can’t think of any benefits for the rUK from devo-max? It is not on the referendum paper anyway, if Scots want change they should go for independence it is the only guaranteed change.

Whereas the No supporters are always calm, reasonable and well-mannered?

#whataboutery

I can’t think of any benefits for the rUK from devo-max?

Union survives and the country stays, more or less, the same

AS has to shut the **** up

This thread never needs to be done ever again

You get to continuing steal the oil 😉

JY wins the thread

The beauty of education is when resistant pupils finally stop messing around and admit that they “get it”. At that point, the time and effort finally seems worthwhile! In the old days, they were rewarded with the “progress prize”.

AS could always drift off into the political graveyard that is the EU parliament. The irony would be perfect.

You get to continuing steal the oil

But we already get to steal the oil. If Scots want more devolution then there should be something in it for the rUK. Devo-max is moving away from a union of countries towards a small country just outsourcing or sharing various governmental departments from a larger country. If Scotland wants devo-max then they should have to give an increased amount to remain part of the union. An increased percentage of GDP should cover the bill. I see independence as Scotland looking to do what is best for Scotland. After a potential no vote then I think the rUK should do what is best for the rUK and offer devo-max up to Scotland but at a price.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/latest-poll-yes-34-no-45-dont-know-21-.1405246146

fasternotfatter – Or tie devo max in with electoral seat reform, eg. solve the west lothian question by excluding Scottish MP’s from non-Scotland votes

The voters say no

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-28279790

66 days to go and the bullshit stops.

Tomorrow’s FT – velvet divorce? Pull the other one.

“If Mr Salmond really believes his own rhetoric, he is deluded. A split between Scotland and the rest of the UK would not be a velvet divorce. It would almost certainly be a no-holds-barred affair.” (Quote boxes have disappeared)

Quite.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea520ece-02c1-11e4-a68d-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz37EZ1obco

Adds Anthony King to the list.

Epic, it will get a lot worse yet. 66 days, polls static. Mr BS to pull out all the stops now…..