Oooh — looking like snow for Christmas?!

anyone else keep an eye on the long range weather forecast?

looking interesting at the mo for Christmas Eve…

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=europe&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=318&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

Accurately predicting whether there’ll be snow or not in two weeks time in the British Isles in December is a bit like trying to pin diarrhoea to a wall.

It’ll be 16 degrees and wet – always is!! 🙂

I know @thenorthwind, but it doesn’t stop us from looking and musing!

it’ll be headline news ‘exact date 600 mile wall of snow to slam Britain’ in the Daily Whatever before you know it…

Is this not standard pre-Christmas “news”?

It’ll be snow! Massive snowbomb to hit Britain! All set for White Christmas! Beast of the East to cover Britain with THREE FEET of snow!

20th – 31st December is grey, dreary and 12 degrees, as normal.

Crazy-legs in Daily Express subscription shocker….

Crazy-legs in Daily Express subscription shocker….

How else am I supposed to find out the weather, how it will affect the price of my house and the TRUTH about Diana?! It’s all there in one easy to read format.

Also, whatever gave me cancer last week probably cures cancer this week so it’s all good.

😉

it’ll be headline news ‘exact date 600 mile wall of snow to slam Britain’

High or wide? Could make a difference to my Christmas plans

THREE FEET of snow!

But don’t forget, the british standard foot of snow is only about 1/4″ of anything else.

Now it’s all in centimetres anyway, bloody shrinkflation.

Accurately predicting whether there’ll be snow or not in two weeks time in the British Isles in December is a bit like trying to pin diarrhoea to a wall.

Said nobody ever.

Oh yes, here we go
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/date-weather-map-shows-snowfall-30558683.amp

Accurately predicting whether there’ll be snow or not in two weeks time in the British Isles in December is a bit like trying to pin diarrhoea to a wall.
Said nobody ever.

Maybe not with those exact words, but essentially I’ve said that many, many times. I may use that phrase in the future, though.

My phone weather app for the 19th is probably as close as anything, temp 9° to 13°, with 80% chance of rain. I can remember heavy snow in 1962, 1982, and… that’s about it. But I live in Wessex, in the south west. No, wait, there was some snow in January 2013, it was dreadful, all of an inch or so, couldn’t get out of the house!

Snow you say?

This is the GEFS ensemble run for Cardiff.  Each line represents an individual run of the forecast, and is the temperature at whatever altitude the pressure is 850mb  In practical terms, for us, that line has to be -10C or lower for us to have snow.  The numbers on the bottom of the chart, the snow row, show how many of the runs predict any snow at all.

So as you can see, whilst there is some uncertainty (spread) in the lines, the outlook is pretty average i.e. mild ish and damp.  Now, this can change, which is why I have this page bookmarked and I check every day.

Now, this can change, which is why I have this page bookmarked and I check every day.

Exactly ^^^ it’s something I like to keep an eye on, but of course at two weeks it’s gotta be taken with a pinch of salt, especially in this part of the world, two days ahead is about the limit for ‘accurate’ forecasting.

It’ll have to get a bit warmer here for it to snow. Last few days have been giving day time max of -1 or -2  with clear skies.

Met Office press release issued yesterday

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/will-it-be-a-white-christmas

Re the OP and the GFS run….never mind Xmas eve the feature at T+216 looks like an utter bastard with Darragh like pressure surge winds across the south.

MET Office is offering a much more typical forecast, although I have learned the hard way that it can change drastically just a few days before a bike trip. Tailwind?  No, cancel that!  Its a week of gale force headwinds for cycling through the Outer Hebrides and then the last day as we need to turn south the wind will flip!

OP, the thread you need is here:

Sick of the incessant snow updates

Not sure what’s been happening with the weather forecast the last 18 months or so?

For the last 3 years I have kept a very close eye on the weather forecast, normally the Met Office and Windy, as it has such an effect on business.

It tended to be spot on for 2 or 3 days in advance. Now they can’t seem to get the next 24 hours correct?

Regards a White Christmas, I’m in my 50’s and have never seen one. I was even working in Tromso one winterand it was 3 or 4C and very wet on Christmas Day.

In most of the UK snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas

#Facts

If you like the constant desperate let down of snow hunting in the ensemble forecast runs, you should check out the Netweather forums. I dabble in a bit of weather watching and I like the snow, but in the run up to that cold snap a couple of weeks ago I’ve never seen a place like it. Absolute madness.

That GEFS run looks like pure chaos from the 19th onwards anyway.

I’d be very happy with no snow at Christmas. I need to do quite a lot of driving this year for seeing relatives and as I’m not a driving god in the snow I would absolutely rather not even try it.

11 degrees and sunny here, just remembered this thread

Same here

I’ve just seen a bumble bee outside

I was pretty much spot on with my prediction a few posts up there ^^

20th – 31st December is grey, dreary and 12 degrees, as normal.

OK, maybe a few degrees too high on the temperature, i think it’s been about 8 today but it was definitely 11-12 degrees yesterday and Christmas Eve.

Ah but…

UK weather maps pinpoint exactly which areas will be hit by 874-mile wall of snow

New UK weather maps have shown the exact areas where a huge wall of snow is expected to envelop the country

🙂

I’ve just seen a bumble bee outside

My partner reported the same this afternoon