Viewing 35 posts - 1 through 35 (of 35 total)
  • No Accident Reduction for Lower Drink Drive Limit
  • irc
    Full Member

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/lower-drink-drive-limit-has-had-little-effect-on-road-safety-1-4807776

    Seems lowering the limit from 80 to 50 hasn’t saved any lives or reduced accidents. Maybe the guys having a pint at the golf club weren’t the problem after all?

    Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    I don’t think it was expected to have an instant result, more of a change of mindset long term, to stop selfish **** drinking and getting in their cars full stop.

    mikewsmith
    Free Member

    Or perhaps very few people were having the one and driving, the law just caught up with that. They seem to be clear to only present their statistical conclusions rather than speculate as to the how and why

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    Drac
    Full Member

    There was also little change in the death rate for young drivers aged 16-25, who are seen as one of the highest-risk groups for drink-driving.

    Read more at: https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/lower-drink-drive-limit-has-had-little-effect-on-road-safety-1-4807776

    Yeah errmmm!

    The figures showed statistically, 27 year old men and 26 year old women were the most common aged drink-driving offenders at 8,886 and 1,620 respectively. The results also revealed that women aged 30 are 19 times more likely to be caught driving home drunk than 18 year old women.

    In regards to men, the results reveal 30 year old men clock up 95% more offences compared to 18 year old male drivers, at 8,258 compared to 258.

    https://www.licencecheck.co.uk/blog/what-age-range-is-the-most-likely-to-drink-drive

    philjunior
    Free Member

    I don’t think it was expected to have an instant result,.

    It’s getting on for 4 years since they dropped the limit.

    Maybe everybody that gets in their car, after a small alcoholic drink or otherwise, is being a selfish dick, I mean they could have just stayed at home, cycled or walked at less risk to others, surely?

    Dickyboy
    Full Member

    @Drac – I assume that’s corrected for the number of 18yo who have or have access to cars?

    Drac
    Full Member

    @Drac – I assume that’s corrected for the number of 18yo who have or have access to cars?

    It’s hard to drink drive without access to a vehicle.

    Dickyboy
    Full Member

    Precisely

    footflaps
    Full Member

    Not that surprising and covered in the excellent…

    One night with poor sleep makes a driver as accident prone as a driver at the legal limit of alcohol. Given how prevalent poor sleep is in society we have tens of thousands of drivers on the road every day who are as high a risk as people who are at the drink drive limit.

    Possibly worse as micro-sleeps (caused by lack of sleep) mean total loss of control and awareness whereas drunk drivers tend to have slower reactions but are generally aware of the situation although impaired.

    So basically, the hypothesis is that tired driving is probably a worse scenario than drunk driving in society.

    taxi25
    Free Member

    In regards to men, the results reveal 30 year old men clock up 95% more offences compared to 18 year old male drivers, at 8,258 compared to 258.

    I assume that’s corrected for the number of 18yo who have or have access to cars?

    I bet it isn’t, probably far many 30yr old drivers than 18yr olds. But I’d still say like for like a 30 yr old is more likely to DD.

    poly
    Free Member

    Seems lowering the limit from 80 to 50 hasn’t saved any lives or reduced accidents. Maybe the guys having a pint at the golf club weren’t the problem after all?

    Or they were but with no change to the enforcement regime they are no more likely to get caught?  To get breathalysed you have to do one of the following:

    – be involved in an accident (and practically it will also require the accident to be of sufficient severity for the police to attend; the only “new” people this is catching are those who by the time they are breathalysed are between the old and the new limit)

    – commit a moving road traffic offence (cameras don’t catch drink drivers; the stats on traffic offence convictions might provide a useful comparator – I doubt anyone would claim driving standards have generally improved in the relevant time period).

    – give reason for suspicion that you’ve been drinking (like a tip off, smelling of booze, telling a police officer you are coming home from the pub etc).  I doubt that the number of people being caught like this has gone up.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Or they were but with no change to the enforcement regime they are no more likely to get caught?

    Police traffic patrols have been reduced by ~ 40% in the same period, IIRC… so presumably enforcement is likely to be slacker.

    dazh
    Full Member

    Here we go again. Can we just skip to the bit where those who don’t drink anything when driving accuse those who do so within the law of being alcoholics and potential child killers 😉

    Drac
    Full Member

    Here we go again. Can we just skip to the bit where those who don’t drink anything when driving accuse those who do so within the law of being alcoholics and potential child killers

    No, well not unless they’ve done an advanced driving course first.

    Precisely

    Errrr! Ok.

    chestercopperpot
    Free Member

    Just out of interest, where does the UK stand in these stats compared to our European counterparts?

    cornholio98
    Free Member

    It would be interesting to see the raw data for all accidents and then the results of breath/blood tests.

    perhaps from this data you might see that drunk drivers in accidents who also stop at the scene don’t just have one drink so are above the limit.

    The point of the lower limit would hopefully be to create a culture where people don’t drink and drive (even the morning after).

    Education, policing and appropriate suspensions. The honour system won’t work…

    duncancallum
    Full Member

    I don’t see the point of the lower limit if your the type that has 4 pints n drives that’s not going to stop you.

    Just an other nail for some remote pub

    wobbliscott
    Free Member

    There are always going to be those who are just against any alcohol consumption out of principle irrespective of what the evidence or the facts are. Just like there are those who would see speed limits reduced to ridiculous levels and have us crawling around and the nation grind to a halt. Ultimately those who are determined to speed or drink too much before driving will do so no matter what the law says or what the consequences are. People are knocked down by drivers who are stone cold sober too because the reality is that in most cases the root cause of people causing accidents is that they are simply not paying attention. They’re distracted. Humans have relatively short attention spans and driving is boring especially in modern day cars that insulate you from sound, vibration, have seats more comfy than your sofa in your living room and that massage you, heat your bottom and have complicated infotainment systems that require you to take your eye’s off the road to change the radio station instead of a simple tactile button.

    Bring on driverless cars, the sooner we end this lunacy the better and safer for us all – but not the driverless Tesla’s of course.

    kcr
    Free Member

    Maybe the guys having a pint at the golf club weren’t the problem after all?

    You can’t assume that from the information provided. If the pint drinking golfers were part of the original problem, and they just carried on drinking their pint because they thought they were unlikely to get caught, they will still be involved in the same number of incidents.

    Without other information, like how many people involved in incidents were over the new limit, all you can say is that the incident rate had not changed, but you can’t explain why it hasn’t changed.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    Based on the article, this doesn’t really assess the effect of the drink drive limit change at all- it’s just looking at total accidents not drink-related accidents. So it’s entirely possible that the change in the law has had an effect but it’s been masked by some other factor countering it. You’d think that an examination of the level of drink-related accidents is the right way to do this?

    irc
    Full Member

    “So it’s entirely possible that the change in the law has had an effect but it’s been masked by some other factor countering it.”

    But that was the point of comparing Scottish stats with England/Welsh stats. According to one of the study team (on Radio Scotland this afternoon) UK stats generally track each other. So if changing the drink drive limit had a significant effect it would have shown up in accident rates in Scotland diverging but it didn’t.

    They found that, in the two years leading up to the lower BAC limit, Scotland had monthly accident rates of 740.63 and fatality rates of 14.96.

    In the two years after the new limit was introduced, the rates were 704.13 for accidents and 15.25 for fatalities. This was consistent with England and Wales, where the BAC limit remained unchanged.
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    As has been stated many times the real problem drink drivers ignored the old limit and weren’t any more likely to obey the new one. Making a law is easy. Giving the police enough resources to have bigger traffic depts to focus on drink driving and other illegal driving apparently is more difficult.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    <div class=”bbp-reply-author”>irc
    <div class=”bbp-author-role”>
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    <div class=”bbp-reply-content”>

    But that was the point of comparing Scottish stats with England/Welsh stats. According to one of the study team (on Radio Scotland this afternoon) UK stats generally track each other. So if changing the drink drive limit had a significant effect it would have shown up in accident rates in Scotland diverging but it didn’t.

    That’s a big assumption, and while it seems totally reasonable I don’t think it’s necessarily the case, especially with such narrow datasets (2 years before vs 2 years after)

    Frinstance, according to uk government stats in 2016 the Scottish fatality rate jumped from 162 to 191 while the English rate went only from 1463 to 1498, so the Scottish increase was almost 10 times that in England (annoyingly I can’t find the same comparison for 2014)

    I don’t know why they’re so divergent but, that’s a 50% incidence in the post-change term of this study where they didn’t track whatsoever. (the subset is very small and the level of casualties in Scotland actually fell so maybe it’s just a case of how life-threatening accidents resolved, rather than a trend in incidents, but that’s a leap)

    I tracked down the discussion paper on this report here:

    https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/18-12.pdf

    And if you look at figure 2 you can see that fatalities don’t really track at all from Scotland to RUK. Accidents track a little better but still not well- the overall trends track but the datapoints don’t. I don’t think their own data supports that part of the argument.

    As far as I can tell, actual drink driving incident rates for the period aren’t in the public domain so maybe this is the best we can do for now but it really feels like a stretch- I’d feel pretty comfortable that they found no evidence to show an improvement, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that if there’s been a significant change that we’d see evidence- but I’m not convinced it shows evidence of no improvement.

    epicyclo
    Full Member

    dazh

    Here we go again. Can we just skip to the bit where those who don’t drink anything when driving accuse those who do so within the law of being alcoholics and potential child killers

    I’d sooner skip to the bit those people justify why they are deliberately inhibiting their reactions before driving on roads where squishy humans are likely to be.

    tjagain
    Full Member

    You do realise that the scotsman is vehemently anti SNP so anything they can use as a stick to beat the SNP with will be used.

    Anecdotally its made a significant difference to drink driving up here.

    Needs someone more up on stats to analyse it that me but it looks like poor use of stats to me.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    @TJ, no point attacking the Scotsman, they’re not the source- at most they’re giving it undue promenance but they’ve reported it pretty accurately, just makes you look partisan

    dmorts
    Full Member

    There is hee-haw chance that any Scottish government (SNP or other) would raise the limit back up again… sort of making this discussion moot.

    binners
    Full Member

    Has anyone gathered the stats on how many baby robins are run over by drunk drivers in Scotland compared to the rest of the U.K.?

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    @Drac I can see how that works.

    Lets say 90 offences were commited by individuals in the upper age group whilst 10 were committed by the lower age group. So statistically you are more likely to see an offence committed by the upper group.

    BUT

    The upper group consists of a pool of 1000 drivers whilst the lower group consists of a pool of 50 drivers. So as an upper age driver you have a 9% chance of being an offender whilst as a lower age driver you have a 20% chance of being an offender. The upper age group committed more offences but the lower group committed more per head of population.

    Obviously I made all of that up but it was to illustrate a point. Lies, damned lies and statistics.

    Drac
    Full Member

    Yes that makes some sense Squirrel but the margarins are huge 95%. That’s maybe what Dickyboy meant too but strange way to ask it.

    The article linked by the OP really is piss poor and not very clear.

    Dickyboy
    Full Member

    I thought it was obvious enough not to have to explain it, but there we go.

    timba
    Free Member

    Statistics over such a short period are never going to accurately reflect the situation, three years (2018 won’t be in there yet) v forty three years:
    In 2013 (before the change) GB had it’s lowest number of total road deaths since 1926 (when records began) and casualties reported to police decreased 6%
    In 2014 GB total road deaths rose by 4% and traffic volumes rose 2.4% on 2013

    We’re looking at drink-drive, and excess alcohol specifically, but the degree of fluctuation within a range of accidental occurrences makes short-term comparison difficult, especially when external influences such as policing changes, traffic volumes and poor driving conditions complicate this further. I’m really not the person to trawl through the spreadsheets, but it’s all here… https://www.gov.uk/transport/road-accidents-and-serious-accidents

    In summary, let’s go with science and medical opinion on the effects of alcohol, rather than the stats

    poly
    Free Member

    There is hee-haw chance that any Scottish government (SNP or other) would raise the limit back up again… sort of making this discussion moot.

    Id have thought it influences the choice England, wales and NI will make.  If it showed a step change from the “Scottish experiment”, especially if rural pub economy suffered no worse than RUK it would be more compelling to reduce their too.

    Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    especially if rural pub economy suffered no worse than RUK it would be more compelling to reduce their too

    Tbh, anyone who owns a rural pub that focuses only on drink is a buffoon, the loser being them and the locals. Lots of rural pubs in Scotland have been shite for years, shite selection of beer, shite food served at shite times, It’s about the only thing I envy about England, you lot can do a rural/village pub.

    If the lower limit stops even one accident a year, and improves our mid ride food and drink establishments, it’s a winner for me!.

    DrJ
    Full Member

    QBYABAYoBA1VTRJIBA1VTRJgBrAKgAfoBqAEBsAEAuAECwAEFyAEC0AEA2AEA4AEA8AEA-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

    Easy for you to say.

    nealglover
    Free Member

    You do realise that the scotsman is vehemently anti SNP so anything they can use as a stick to beat the SNP with will be used.

    They are just reporting the statistics. If you don’t like what the statistics show, shooting the messenger is a weak argument.

    Anecdotally its made a significant difference to drink driving up here.

    On the other hand, I’m totally convinced by that. Who needs facts and figures when guesswork is available 👍

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