Mortality rates for 45-54 year old?

Turned 50 last year, probably fitter than most 50 year olds but would be interested to know my chances of dying at this age in uk, i’ve done some googling and it appears to be about 1 in 300, sh1t, time to get my affairs in order. 😯

Don’t worry about it. When you go you go.

So you should last another 150 years?

Mortality rates are currently running at 100%, no-one here gets out alive! 🙂

We are into that window where people start to leave us, my mates first girlfriend died last week at the age of 49. She was a top person and we had some great times RIP Susan 🙁

300:1 it’s like a punishment.

Mortality rates are generally based on large groups, so you’ll be lumped in with various biffers, boozers and smokers. So while they’re good at predicting how many of 1000 people will die at a particular age, they are a bit weak for predicting individual risk, unless you’re a lot more average than you think.

Also, although you’re clearly worried about it, it’s much harder to predict relatively rare events than those which happen frequently. The individual risk of dying pre-55 is actually very low.

The individual risk of dying pre-55 is actually very low

But when you hit 56…

Take a look at the Q Risk calculator, might give you some idea.

http://www.qrisk.org

Not worried, just morbidly interested, planning on retiring in 3 years time, just wondered what my chances of making it were.

planning on retiring in 3 years time, just wondered what my chances of making it were.

I knew someone who retired at a similar age. Was a senior guy in huge German business. Several hundred attended his leaving do.

Two weeks later all the same people went to his funeral.

Good luck! 😀

What’s the 1 in 300 chance you’ve found? Per minute, hour, day, year or over the whole period?

If you’re rolling the dice every minute, that sounds more worrying!

My retirement plans are probably way more modest, and i havn’t got 20 years worth of business lunches behind me. 🙂

My retirement plans are probably way more modest, and i havn’t got 20 years worth of business lunches behind me

He was in good shape. Died when cycling in the mountains near his home in Bavaria. Real shame – for a near captain of industry, he was such a nice guy.

Best wishes for your upcoming early retirement..!

it appears to be about 1 in 300, sh1t

How is that something to pessimistic about – you’re odds of making it to your 54th birthday – inspire of all the risks we take every day like driving, crossing the road, eating fish with bones in, licking 9v batteries – are 299:1 – sounds optimistic to me.

51 and sad to say the first of my mates has already gone.

we had a school reunion 10 years ago and of 120 in the school year 7 had gone.. all bar one were blokes.

we re pedalled a myth that we ll all live way beyond 3 score years and 10 and frankly its simply a lie. my father is 77 of his regiment there are only 3 survivors.. of my mums large circle of friends she is the only one her gae with a husband with a pulse.

just enjoy.. you are 50 and in good health theres every chance you ll make the weekend. you could even risk booking a summer holiday.. BUT i would start paying attention to the ads on tv for over 50’s funeral plans.. micheal parkinson wouldnt lie..

I am going to be 45 on the 10th of Feb.

Just checked the qrisk thing – Your risk of having a heart attack or stroke within the next 10 years is: 2.5%

we re pedalled a myth that we ll all live way beyond 3 score years and 10 and frankly its simply a lie. my father is 77 of his regiment there are only 3 survivors.

You’re making an error comparing people of your fathers age with yourself – your life expectancy is related to when you were born, the expectancy for someone born in the 1930s isn’t the same for someone born in the 1960s or the 1990s.

Sats are rubbish. All you can do is do what you can to minimise known risks, cross your fingers and get on with life. But that doesn’t gurarantee that you wont get ploughed down by a bus, or have some hidden ‘defect’ from birth like a dodgy heart or brain thing that could kick in at any time.

For example a guy in my spin class, same age as me (41), fit as a fiddle, keen runner, apparently healthy in every sence, recently dropped with a near-fatal heart attack completely out of the blue. He would have been a low risk for a heart attack by any of the usual medical criteria.

The thought does cross my mind sometimes, when beasting myself in a spin class, or hauling my bike up a steep hill, if I have any underlying issue that I might be putting under stress.

2.9% risk of heart attack in next 10 years for me. Average is 4.4%, but still 🙁

Put another way, you have a 97.1% chance of avoiding a heart attack in the next 10 years.

Trouble is, most people see the word ‘risk’, even if attached to a very small number, as some kind of portent of doom.

You are exposed to risks every day, you’re rolling the dice constantly. Given our shared hobby, I reckon a few of those risks significantly outrank your heart attack chances.

I am going to be 45 on the 10th of Feb.

I’ll be 43!

Someone I know – his mum retired on the Friday, he was getting married the next day. She dropped dead on the morning just before she was meant to be going to the church with the wedding party.

😐

None of these cheery anecdotes is helping the OP much 🙂

You’re making an error comparing people of your fathers age with yourself – your life expectancy is related to when you were born, the expectancy for someone born in the 1930s isn’t the same for someone born in the 1960s or the 1990s

No, yours is less 🙂

If you make it past 30 your life expectancy is actually quite a bit higher than the national average life expectancy which includes people who die in child birth and the risky period for young men of late teens/early twenties etc.

I think it’s at least 90.

Put another way, you have a 97.1% chance of avoiding a heart attack in the next 10 years.

I probably wouldn’t get on a plane that only had that chance of reaching it’s destination…

If you know of any way to avoid getting on with the next 10 years of your life (that isn’t a bit counterproductive), then the comparison makes sense.

It’s more like already being in mid-air when you find out the odds. A bit disturbing, but hey, massively in your favour.

Turned 50 last year…

I probably wouldn’t get on a plane that only had that chance of reaching it’s destination…

But not every plane is going to fail to reach it’s destination at some point during its service. Every person is going to die.

I think the reason I only have a 2.5% chance of dying of heart attack or stroke is because I have a 96% chance of dying in a different but novel and exciting way because of who I am.

I have just done the test as I am a type 2 biffer and was intrigued I have a 7.62 percent risk of having a heart attack or stroke which isn’t as bad as I was first expecting. It’s also assuming that your bmi is not that of someone who is heavily muscled which we all know skews the bmi calculation. So I have a 92% chance of being fine and riding for many many years more. I try hard to keep myself as healthy as possible and having a positive outlook on life is one of the major factors that will make you live longer as statistically you will be a lot less lower risk of committing suicide 😆

2.9% risk of heart attack in next 10 years for me. Average is 4.4%, but still

That site is crap, as I put in my colleagues details after mine (for a comparison) and she’s about 150cm and 150kg – her risk is almost zero 😮