Markets go up and down all the time. They are driven by sentiment, not rational thinking and logic.
Obv the sentiment since Friday has been:

‘Let’s get as far away from this as possible’ hence the dumping of Sterling etc…

A window of opportunity was seen to short and play volatility, nothing more.

Anyone following assets will understand this.

You know a couple of weeks ago we were focussed on real needs. Energy.

Money is not a problem for a sovereign state with a central bank.

Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?

Heard what she thinks?

Seen her?

She’s making Boris look visible and hard-working

Deeper read.

https://bondeconomics.substack.com/p/gilt-market-mayhem?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf&s=09

Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?

Heard what she thinks?

Seen her?

The last government killed a load folk – you think anyone will care in two weeks!

Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?

She is heading up to Wales to that big zip wire thing so she can go bigger than Boris and distract us all for a moment while Kwazy Kwazi does something else

She is heading up to Wales to that big zip wire thing so she can go bigger than Boris and distract us all for a moment while Kwazy Kwazi does something else

Perhaps tie a choker chain round her neck and let her slide?

you think anyone will care in two weeks!

You mean when it’s costing them even more to eat, heat and rent/mortgage their homes? Caused by a government that is the neutering unions, talking down pay increases for workers, and making their jobs even more insecure and financially unrewarding? I think they might.

enrielynch

Eh? What “experts”…….the ones that favour a right-wing trajectory or the ones that favour a left-wing trajectory?

And with what goal in mind – satisfying the market, which has no interest in economic justice or the quality of people’s lives, or other goals such as providing people with secure employment, housing, and financial security?

Economics is about priorities, and it is priorities that should distinguish the Labour Party from the Tory Party.

Real paid experts don’t write reports favouring either… a balanced report simply say’s if you do X then Y is likely to occur.. whether Y is favourable or not is then down to politics.
This is a fairly common and increasingly so confusion …

An example an expert in sewage system say’s if you flush a load of shit and nappies down that sewer it will clog up and flood shit everywhere…the water company then decides if that sewer flooding shit everywhere is important to its shareholders or not.

Another example … A chancellor gets told by numerous experts that huge, unsupported borrowing to reduce taxes will crash the economy and just pretending nothing is wrong will crash it further… it’s then down to the chancellor and PM to decide if crashing the economy is important to them or not…

scratch

Yeah, almost pales into insignificance when a lot of the population are directly looking at being homeless this time next year.

How is a lot of the population being homeless, dying from cold or starving significant to Truss or Kwati?
It won’t be them or their friends/relatives hence completely insignificant.

I get your point about QE. The BofE will always try to help the government when it can. The currency fluctuations are market-driven, though – BofE not involved there. Surely any money printing will just devalue the currency further?
Anyhow, i’m keen to see these supply side reforms which will help with a 2.5% growth target…

Government departments to be asked to find ‘spending efficiencies’

There’s a surprise

How is a lot of the population being homeless, dying from cold or starving significant to Truss or Kwati?
It won’t be them or their friends/relatives hence completely insignificant.

I was referring to bankers bonuses being less significant in the issues I’d listed, obvs they won’t care a fig, but they may care about their reputation and no one wants to be the one who destroyed the party on their watch, the dinner circuit money would quickly dry up

I saw a tweet earlier, in one respect this is unconcervative as you’ll get, this is just a massive gamble the right have feared the left would do if they ever got into power, it’s chaos with Lizz Truss. Is anyone coming out of the woodwork in support yet?

Can we go back to the happy days if just worrying about gas prices?

Covid, then this.

The last government killed a load folk – you think anyone will care in two weeks!

The big difference here is that whilst you can criticise the government’s response to covid, the pandemic itself can hardly be blamed on them

Here however you have the Bank of England stepping in to save an economy from the very mess our chancellor has single handidly created

It’s absolutely staggering, unheard of, and even more unfathomable that the man still has a job

I doubt people will forget in 2 weeks time when they face huge hike in their mortgage and losing their homes

When does the civil unrest start? The French would have been out burning stuff by now

As predicted Truss’s tax cuts mean austerity for the rest of us

Real paid experts don’t write reports favouring either….

A Prime Minister needs to have clear priorities and clear goals. Asking the “experts” isn’t the issue, the issue is which experts to ask. Your suggestion that Starmer would just need to listen to the experts is misleading.

Both Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman won the Nobel Peace Prize for economics, both can fairly be described as “experts”. The idea that they would both give Prime Minister Kier Starmer the same advice is fanciful. And not just because one of them is dead.

Well we’ve just remortgaged, basically 500quid a month worse off. If someone took £6k out of your hand and threw it in a fire you’d smash their **** face in.

Right now if kwasi was here that’s what he’d get.

I’m all up for a bit of civil disorder. As long as it fits around my teams meetings and the school run

Luckily for them, petrol bombs are purely an upper class indulgence. Nobody else can afford them

haha. We just need a better government. It really can’t be that hard!

Watching the news it seems like the only person prepared to come out and defend the chuckle brothers and their suicidal economic policy is John Redwood

Imagine that? Your only defender is a freak like him who’s never been right about anything in his entire life.

The papers this morning are full of headlines spelling out the scale of the crisis. Except for the Mail who are leading with Stephen Lawrence’s killer having a phone in jail (hint: probably had one most of the time he’s in there) and hinting it was those nasty Pension funds doing dodgy dealings that caused it.

Delusional but dangerous.

The last government killed a load folk – you think anyone will care in two weeks!

Let’s assume that within the next couple of weeks, the majority of people with mortgages realise that come renewal time, they could end up in this kind of situation:

Well we’ve just remortgaged, basically 500quid a month worse off. If someone took £6k out of your hand and threw it in a fire you’d smash their **** face in.

Right now if kwasi was here that’s what he’d get.

According to google, 28% of the population have a mortgage on the home they live in. That’s a LOT of extremely pissed-off people.

So yes, yes I think it’s a safe bet people WILL care in two weeks time.

Let’s assume that within the next couple of weeks, the majority of people with mortgages realise that come renewal time, they could end up in this kind of situation:

For sure. I’m not cutting the government any slack – I’m just saying people have short memories.

Interest rates though are/were not destined to stay low forever and you do have to be careful to have not over-leveraged yourself on finance because it’s been cheap.

Many people have enjoyed massive leaps in the value of their house because of this system.

Sometimes it goes the other way.

I do feel for tenants though they could get properly shafted.

Both Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman won the Nobel Peace Prize for economics, both can fairly be described as “experts”. The idea that they would both give Prime Minister Kier Starmer the same advice is fanciful. And not just because one of them is dead.

And Friedman insisted that inflation can only be caused by monetary policy which is patently incorrect.

Neoliberals cling to this even today.

Interest rates though are/were not destined to stay low forever and you do have to be careful to have not over-leveraged yourself on finance because it’s been cheap.

A really helpful comment for those who have largely only known low interest rates. The rates have been so low FOR SO LONG that a lot of homeowners have probably never seen anything else so although yes everyone should budget to anticipate stuff you can’t really blame people as much in recent times.

I bought my first house just after the chaos has cleared in 1991 and know many people who just handed their keys back a few years before that. Guessing we will see that happening again, as people have again be allowed by irresponsible mortgage lenders to borrow too much.

Agree Kerley – when interest rates were 10% no one was budgeting for them to triple or quadruple in the space of a year which is what people will be facing here. At the same time as an inflationary crisis with shite pay rises. It’s the relative change that matters and the other circumstances.

Interest rates were rising. But then the BoE had to scramble to slap an EXTRA 0.5% on Base rate and there’s talk of more. Previously (pre banking crash) had a mortgage on 5% when rates were 0.5% so fully aware of leveraging, thanks. An ideological decision that NOBODY voted for was made that caused this impact and nearly folded a substantial slice of pension market. People are going to care and people will remember every their direct debit goes out.

I agree it’s the speed of increase coupled with inflation and cost of everything going up which is catching people out so badly.

everyone knows interest rates can go hp or down. but they expect some notice.

chap above example of a 6k hit per annum, then add in energy and food increases. Probably once you take into account tax burden you’ll be looking at needing to earn an extra 10k to stay even. Not many people will be able to cope with that or have the ability to change jobs to earn that much more.

it’s similar to the pensions funds suddenly finding themselves in the shit and not able to service their debt because the pounds dived. that’s why BoE bailed them our by buying bonds. (is my non economic expert understanding of it)

If this gets worse they are going to need to bail out home owners, just like they did with energy. it’s a sucj a rapid shock that you can’t expect people to have planned for.

it’s very easy to be smug if you have a small mortgage or none at all.

She’s on the telly box today isn’t she? Noting her rabbit in the headlights persona on most questions it promises to be total car crash TV

Tory gameplan:

Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* – spook the markets unnecessarily.

Justify austerity to rectify.

Tory gameplan:

Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* – spook the markets unnecessarily.

Justify austerity to rectify.

How long till the next election? Does this give them enough time to get what they want done done?

Previously austerity came with low credit availability and low cost of living, moving to high cost credit, high cost of living + austerity says they’ve got to be gone next time around, it’s not sustainable.

She’s on the telly box today isn’t she?

going for those hard hitting local radio hosts….

8am: Radio Leeds
8.08am: Radio Norfolk
8.15am: Radio Ken
8.22am: Radio Lancashire
8.30: Radio Nottingham
8.38am: Radio Tees
8.45am: Radio Bristol
8.52am: Radio Stoke

She’s really keen on promoting the energy price cap, for some reason.

When will Crispin be trickling down?

Jesus **** Christ.

In fairness (I know) on eve of the conference apparently it’s traditional or something to do a whole load of local radio interviews, and these have consequently been booked in for months. Not that she’s just picked a few easy ones (noting, there are some very good local radio reporters who can and will ask difficult questions)

Doesn’t explain why she’s not also been doing national media for the past 4 days……

https://twitter.com/POLITLCSUK/status/1575229502455975936

The suffering is going to be immense. I am ashamed of this country.

They’ll be fine, just wait till all that delicious growth trickles down on them.

Sunlit uplands…

trickle down

sunlit uplands

Golden showers from the political elite?

Well it looks I am going to be £1000 worse off in a few months time.