Truss gave she repeatedly claimed that their plan to cap the energy costs would by itself reduce inflation to 5%

Which month’s figure is normally used for any benefits/pension cost-of-living increases?

Hmm. I agree means-testing would take longer – that’s why I suggested doing it by Council tax band. There must be a lot of households who don’t need an extra £400 though? e.g. band E properties?
Also, plenty who could do with £500…e.g. family of 4 in Victorian Terrace, Band A.
Nobody has to ‘apply’ though, so that argument is irrelevant.

I haven’t calculated anything but only giving it to Bands A,B+C may still keep people off the streets and save cash to use elsewhere.

I don’t view it as welfare – it’s mitigating the fallout from supporting Ukraine.
I do like the idea of free loft insulation, though. Especially for Universal Credit claimants.

I think 5% inflation cut is a bit optimistic, too. Energy prices have doubled (without the cap) and will go up again early next year. Then add in food inflation, petrol, transport, wage increases. I would say the energy cap alone will knock 2-3% off inflation at most.

I have just realised that one of my posts got reposted long after the original post. I have no idea how that happened but I suspect it is in some way connected to failed attempts to edit and post. Apologies anyway.

And…gilt prices hitting the heights again.

I'm sorry to report that everyone should be watching the gilt market… pic.twitter.com/t63GI4XGfc

— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) October 10, 2022

Seems like 65bn doesn’t buy back the confidence a Chancellor can squander in moments. Clearly no-one is impressed by the squirming at the Treasury, and the various pledges and rumours that are coming and going (sometimes on the same day).

The fact that the polls suggest that the government is fatally undermined with two years left in the electoral cycle cannot be helping either.

Is that just the normal reaction to whenever the Chancellor says he’s going to do something (i.e. today he anonounced revealing plans on the 31st of October).

Constantly moving dates/OBR reports around doesn’t inspire confidence. BofE also set to end the current round of gilt-buying.

Also, the rumours that Truss is planning not to cut benefits in real terms reignites the question over how all this is getting paid for.

The latest rise hasn’t been seemingly in response to one thing or other, apparently started again around the time of the party conference, make of that what you will.

Are we now on two or three U-Turns for the same decision on when it will be published?

Everyone knows what the OBR report will say about Kamikwasi’s mini-budget anyway…

This is economically illiterate ****-wittery of the highest order and the inexplicabley over-confident clown who wrote it hasn’t got the faintest ****ing clue how he’s going to fund any of it

Mini budget

Big U-turn

Big fallout

Say Big Chief

this U is for turning 😀

45p reversed
corp tax reversed

Awesome, I assume I’ll be getting my money back, now. No?

nearly everything reversed now 😀 what a farce!

Best close the thread then. Pretend it never happened 🙂

So basically we’re all being screwed to appease the bond markets, international currency speculator and hedge funds, and bail out irresponsible pension funds who gambled trillions on financial derivatives.

Higher energy bills
Higher taxes
Higer interest rates on mortgages
Higher prices due to inflation
Cuts to public services and benefits

If the tories thought they were f**** before Hunt cancelled the MB, then they’ve seen nothing yet.

It’s not to appease those people… they’re the only ones that have been doing very nicely out the mini-budget announcement!

Hunt is just rolling back a poorly thought out package of measures to try and get us back to the less bad, but still pretty damn bad, position we were in over the summer. Once he’s done that, it’s time for the political parties to propose how we actually get out of the deeper hole we’ve been digging for ourselves for years. And put those plans to the public at a general election. I’ll be voting for a party that understands that shifting at a faster speed to renewables and energy storage is a major part of that, not one that thinks that if we remove regulations and restrictions on the fossil fuel extractors, that they’ll save us.

In fairness they got ripped a new one and crashed the markets based on their ridiculous mini budget so we can’t then also hammer them for reversing it

The fuel cap u turn is a concern however

Smacks of ‘insider trading’ to me…on a governmental scale

Hunt is just rolling back a poorly thought out package of measures to try and get us back to the less bad

No he’s not, he’s abandoning any pretence that the govt wanted to help working people survive the cost of living crisis, and has made it much worse by transferring the cost of volatile markets and irresponsible financial planning by pension funds onto the public. It’s the complete abdication of responsibility of the government to protect voters in favour of protecting the city of London. We’re being bled dry to protect the fortunes of the top 1% and the power of the city of London.

irresponsible pension funds who gambled trillions on financial derivatives.

I don’t think thats a fair assessment. Government bonds are historically the opposite of “gambling” – they are, in normal circumstances, extremely slow-moving, low-revenue investments. Exactly what a prudent pension fund should invest in during the draw-down phase. What happened this month was the government s..wed up so badly they went to the wall causing issues for those funds.

the govt wanted to help working people survive the cost of living crisis

The mini-budget package didn’t “help working people survive the cost of living crisis” … if it had genuinely tried to do that, the reaction wouldn’t have been what it was. It was a giveaway, to the rich, to fossil fuel producers, to bankers, to mates of mates, people buying up property in cash, when the government should have been investing in the country.

Hunt is just rolling back a poorly thought out package of measures to try and get us back to the less bad

They weren’t investing only in govt bonds, they made trillion pound bets on LDIs which were based on the bonds they held that the yields wouldn’t increase. Had they not made those bets they would have been fine. They were never in danger of not getting the money owed via the bonds back. The govt will never default on it’s bond debts. Instead of making bets on LDIs, they should have been buying more bonds.

luckily now it’s cancelled, mortgage rates will go back to what they were the other week and financiers will say soz and give the Bank of England their £60bn back. So that’s all good.

give the Bank of England their £60bn back. So that’s all good.

its funny money (quantitative easing) anyway, but with the latest annoucements the BoE will likely be able to resell the bonds for more than they paid.

Truss has to be gone by the end of the week, there’s no other option. If they do keep her on then we are just pausing any hope of getting the situation back under control. Who the hell will replace her though is terrifying. We can’t have Johnson back, that will just cause the system to implode, so amazingly letting Hunt be a caretaker could well be the best option?!

Hunt is just rolling back a poorly thought out package of measures to try and get us back to the less bad, but still pretty damn bad, position we were in over the summer.

It won’t get us back there but it will get us some of the way. The amount of emergency funding the Bof E did will have a lasting effect that cannot be undone, lingering for a generation at least. It will eventually become background noise but it will still be there. The bigger issue is the damage to our reputation, that will take a complete change of government (ie none of this lot in office) and a period of rebuilding trust that could take 3-4 Parliamentary cycles. We need to have a decade or more of solid, sensible and low risk decisions that are predictable. Hunt has started that today but his next move will be very tough as even the slightest miscalculation or ambiguity that could spook the markets will push us further back. The merest presence of the current cabinet near any power though will hinder the process massively.

I don’t think thats a fair assessment. Government bonds are historically the opposite of “gambling” – they are, in normal circumstances, extremely slow-moving, low-revenue investments. Exactly what a prudent pension fund should invest in during the draw-down phase. What happened this month was the government s..wed up so badly they went to the wall causing issues for those funds.

Exactly, Kwarteng ripped the safe building blocks of their financial planning out from underneath them with absolutely no warning whatsoever. They had no options available to them as everything was moving far too fast for them to release funds to keep afloat for any longer than when the BofE stepped in. If that decision had been delayed by even a day then it’s highly likely that some of the pension funds would have completely collapsed. The domino effect of that would be devastating.

We can’t have Johnson back, that will just cause the system to implode,

However unthinkable that might be it is probably the only way that Truss could be replaced without the argument for an early general election becoming too compelling.

The Tories can’t keep changing prime ministers with different policies and no mandate willy-nilly without calling a general election and putting it to voters to decide.

They might technically be able to do it but it would be deeply damaging for them and would alienate voters even further.

By reinstalling Johnson they could reasonably argue that he has a mandate and no election would be required for a couple of years.

It should also be remembered that when Sajid Javid kicked off the current debacle by resigning in the beginning of July the Labour lead was around the 8% mark, Johnson is nowhere as toxic for the Tories as other potential contenders for the role of Prime Minister.

I think it is unlikely but I am not privy to the internal machinations of the Tory Party so I wouldn’t rule it out.

The Tories can’t keep changing prime ministers with different policies and no mandate willy-nilly without calling a general election and putting it to voters to decide.

it’ll be interesting to see how they manage transition even if they do go the full 2 years with truss though. She must be viewable as unelectable now, so do they do a leadership vote in, say, october 2024, so they have a new leader in place in time to do policies and marketing in time for a jan 2025 election? do they need a no confidence vote to manage that or do they just have a word in her ear?

o amazingly letting Hunt be a caretaker could well be the best option?!

Steady on, “least bad” might be more apt

so do they do a leadership vote in, say, october 2024

They’ll probably already have had two more leaders before they get to October next year. Hopefully the second one will be chosen while they’re in opposition. 🤞🏻

Is there any point that our new King can step in and call a halt to all this and demand a GE?

Is there any point that our new King can step in and call a halt to all this and demand a GE?

Liz-o-Matic can request that parliament be dissolved

Gooo-on Liz! Take ’em all down with ya!

do they do a leadership vote in, say, october 2024

No Truss is toast, she has to go now. She has no credibility, no authority, and no possibility of regaining either. All that can happen from now on is that she will get even weaker, she has no control over her own policies.

What a shambles . . . .

You can only imagine the fortunes that have been made “on the side”. Most of us will work a lifetime and not make the sort of money people have made in the last few weeks.

I think it is unlikely but I am not privy to the internal machinations of the Tory Party so I wouldn’t rule it out.

Agree. Johnson is the only candidate who can claim to have public support, even if that is on shaky ground after partygate. He would be able to stand in front of the electorate and say ‘tory MPs are idiots, they made a mistake. Let this be a lesson to any politician who tries to go against the will of the people’. They’ll still lose, but would at least have more than a 100 MPs.

Alternatively Hunt may struggle on as a technocrat caretaker whose single job is not to crash the economy while they see out the rest of the term to their inevitable annihilation in 2024. Sunak, Morduant and Wallace have zero mandate and would have to call an election before christmas. If they didn’t and tried to tough it out then the tories will face an existential defeat at the next election.

I still think Truss will try to tough it out though. The lack of tory consensus on a successor will mean she will be stuck in place. If I were her I’d say f*** it and call an election just to get my own back. 😀

Can’t see Truss being around for long at all…

“Why is Truss still PM?”
“Because her party can’t find anyone better.”

“Why isn’t she calling an election?”
“Because she knows the country don’t want her as PM”.

She’s toast.

Yes she’s done, but if the tories can’t agree on a successor she’s not going anywhere. The tories are so divided they’re never going to agree with each other. In that case Starmer needs to call them out with a VONC. Then they’ll be forced to support and limp on with Truss or go for the nuclear option.

The tories are so divided they’re never going to agree with each other.

They are extremely divided but there are enough Tory MPs for them to find a neutral candidate who can act as caretaker, it doesn’t have to be one of the big beasts.

The motivation for putting their differences to one side and uniting behind one neutral individual without any wayward policies is that for very many their political futures are at stake.

Which is obviously an extremely powerful motivation.

Mini Budget

“Gone but not forgotten”

R.I.P

The BBC are still calling it by the Orwellian name Truss and Kwarteng gave it… “The Growth Plan”.