Its too late.

It’s not really. Most voters don’t follow politics, and will only make a decision in the run up to the election during the campaign as they don’t follow politics any other time. They will have much less knowledge of the history and evolution of labour’s brexit policy than we do. They’ll make a choice on what they think makes them better off. At the moment it’s not looking like remain/2nd ref is convincing them. Quite the opposite in fact.

So you’re saying it doesn’t matter what people think now, wait ‘till the election campaign, but that we should look at what people think now? It’s getting harder to work out your logic beyond… ‘People want Brexit, and they won’t change their minds, and, simultaneously, people don’t know yet that they want Corbyn, but they will discover that they do at some point before the next election’.

Meanwhile make assertions about what the public want for brexit now and draw a connection between that and the Tory’s position in polls ( that, err, don’t mean anything ). That’s some gymnastics of thinking right there.

Corbyn’s Labour will not win the next election with their continued fudging of the issue.

Talking of correlations (and possible causations) … compare the personal ratings of the party leaders to the support for the parties themselves. Sadly, people don’t just look at policies, I wish they did, they look at the leader and, maddeningly, depressingly, Johnson is a vote winner for his party, where as…

Sadly, people don’t just look at policies, I wish they did, they look at the leader

So you want a leader who can stand toe to toe with Johnnson in the popularity stakes? Sadly there is no one. So it makes little sense to fight on that territory. If anything, maybe Corbyn should have stuck to his guns and insisted on leaving, possibly with no deal so that labour could rebuild a fairer society free from the constrictions of neo-liberal economics? I’m not saying that’s my view but if we believe what the polls are telling us that’s what they should have done. The argument that labour is losing because they’re not remain enough is becoming thinner every time a new poll comes out.

if we believe what the polls are telling us

If we believe your odd interpretations of what the polls are telling us.

odd interpretations

The tories, with their singular focus on leaving are miles ahead, Boris is by far the most popular PM candidate, and the hard remain parties are losing ground. You can either interpret that as people want brexit, or you can imagine that Corbyn is so unpopular that people who don’t want brexit will support it anyway to stop him winning. Which of those is the simplest explanation consistent with recent electoral history?

And before you bring up the labour’s performance in the euro election, just remember that was still won by brexit supporting parties.

I can ‘interpret’ that being single minded on Brexit is helping Johnson win back supporters from the Brexit party… and I can also ‘imagine’ that there are people who don’t want Brexit but would still vote for another party, even Johnson’s, because they don’t want Corbyn and his Straight Left advisors running the country. There’s no ‘or’ about it. Both seem plausible and can be happening concurrently. In fact, I strongly suspect that they are.

So anything other than the bleeding obvious that Boris is way ahead because people want to – to use a shit phrase – ‘get brexit done’? I’ll never understand this urge to only pay attention to polls if they support your own view, or draw the exact opposite conclusions from them. The simple answer to all this is that the polls are they way they are because there is still support for brexit. As much as I don’t like that, it’s the obvious and common sense conclusion. Lets hope they’re wrong.

Who thinks there isn’t support for Brexit though? It’s everywhere, packaged up in a much friendlier campaign than before. (Don’t believe me – see their stalls in town centres – balloons, people dressed up in costumes, money for hospitals!)

A few strongly argued bits in the Guardian – along with Alastair Campbell walking his twitter moral tightrope hasn’t really made up for the increasing push on the Brexit side – certainly in my region.

I do find it contradictory that on the one hand the over-simple yes/no referendum has been criticised with hindsight as being pretty much the root cause of where we are; and yet when that simplicity has been addressed with the complexity it needs by the Labour party it is apparently too complex, confused or too late.

The battle is actually as much to stop a Labour government at all costs.

Clearly Bollocks to Brexit solved so much.

Johnson is popular.
Corbyn in unpopular.

We get that.

What else were you saying?

Oh, I see, Corbyn is unpopular because he isn’t pro No Deal No Say Brexit? Is that what you’re both arguing the case for? Carry on…

There is not majority support for Brexit across the UK – all the polls on how the UK would vote if the referendum were run again show this. Current support for the Tories is traditional Tory voters and leave voters. Labour’s lurch to loony left policies, and lack of a clear commitment to remaining mean that liberal (small ‘l’) remainers like myself will not vote for them.

It’s really not that difficult to understand.

JP

It’s really not that difficult to understand.

The turnover of polls for how the UK would vote for a government also indicate a definite trend towards the Tories.

You’re ignoring a correlation between these polls and the leave vote.

Other than ‘Leave’ the Tories aren’t offering anything new to the electorate. There is no other reason anyone would vote for them, unless you’re extremely wealthy or a masochist.

Like you say not really that hard to understand.

There is not majority support for Brexit across the UK

Them we can expect Boris’ popularity to slide imminently then?

Good.

Johnson is popular.
Corbyn in unpopular.

We get that.

What else were you saying?

So you don’t think there is a correlation with how much more popular Johnson is now versus May who offered up a wishy-washy Brexit solution?

Given Boris is offering no concession to the remainers and Corbyn moved towards remain how can you not extrapolate that at all?

(Also my argument mainly lies with the ‘predictors’ on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)

There are too many people on here that lay out theories and then when we get to test it then don’t reconcile their logic by admitting they were incorrect.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 33% (+6)
LAB: 27% (-)
LDEM: 19% (-1)
BREX: 13% (-4)

via @ComRes
Chgs. w/ 24 Sep

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 7, 2019

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 15% (-5)
BREX: 12% (+1)
GRN: 4% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 03 – 04 Oct
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 5, 2019

Other than ‘Leave’ the Tories aren’t offering anything new to the electorate. There is no other reason anyone would vote for them, unless you’re extremely wealthy or a masochist.

That has been the case for the last 40 years and even with the whole Brexit thing they are still the party that has been in power the most.
Yes the wealthly and masochistic vote Tory but so do the misled masses

I will go with you partly there. But 40 years ago we didn’t have the absolute farce that we’ve had for the last 3 years to humiliate them.

Other than ‘Leave’ the Tories aren’t offering anything new to the electorate.

Have you missed the last couple of weeks since Boris found a forest of magic money trees? He’s set about stealing Labours clothes. New hospitals, an increase in the minimum wage, 20,000 new police officers, etc, etc…

is it all smoke and mirrors? Of course! Do they intend to deliver it? Of course, they don’t!

But a lot of people are clearly buying it. Especially in leave-leaning Labour seats in the north and midlands, which is exactly what they’re relying on to win a majority at the next election, and exactly who this is targetted at.

And in reply to all this, from the labour party?

The usual deafening silence from the invisible ‘leadership’

… or did Jeremey do a Tweet?

(Also my argument mainly lies with the ‘predictors’ on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)

He hasn’t moved towards remain though, has he? He’s merely re-stated the same Red Unicorns/constructive ambiguity nonsense. Against the wishes of the membership, it should be added, through his conference stitch-up. Yay for ‘restoring democracy to the membership’.

Only when it suits, eh?

I think it was Jess Phillips (booooo…. bloody Blairite!) who summed up the problem with that.

“The remainers think we’re leavers and the leavers think we’re remainers”

Hence Labours pitiful poll ratings

^ that. The suggestion that Labour have moved in any measurable way towards remain is laughable. Labour’s approach continues to be conducting the same experiment and expecting a different result.
No way on earth remainers will be bitten twice by the same policy.
So while Pinky and The Brain have hoovered up all the brexit party support Labour continue to piss in to the wind.

Have you missed the last couple of weeks since Boris found a forest of magic money trees? He’s set about stealing Labours clothes. New hospitals, an increase in the minimum wage, 20,000 new police officers, etc, etc…

Oh yes for sure. Boris definitely understands that governments can spend, which they can of course when it suits them.

However Labour are offering plenty of cherries too.

While Labour’s policy shift (putting their Brexit to a referendum against Remain) means I and many others can vote for them again (and I will) they are never going to get enough seats at a general election with the current leader, no matter what their policy is on Brexit or anything else. Everyone knows it. The tone of your posts suggest you do as well @rone… to see the Tories romping ahead is very frustrating. All we can hope for is a hung parliament with the balance not in Johnson’s favour… and even that looks like little more than wishful thinking now. Corbyn should have stood aside long ago.

There’s a reason Johnson is doing everything to get an election ASAP. He knows, full well, he’ll face the most unpopular and frankly almost comically hopeless opposition leader this country has ever seen.

If he faces Corbyn then he gets a majority. It’s that simple.

He knows it. We all know it. Even Corbyn knows it.

Yet there he still is. Sat on the fence like Karl Marx’s garden gnome. Dooming us all to the Brexit he’s always yearned for and then another 5 years of Tory rule with Boris ****ing Johnson at the helm

* slow handclap for Jeremy *

Polls keep getting referred to in this thread as gospel, I remember in the build up to the referendum the polls said remain would be by a landslide and look how that turned out…

Yeah… that ain’t happening again. And let’s not forget… he still lost. Despite it then being painted as some great victory.

Peak Corbyn was reached in 2017 when he faced the worst election campaigner in history in the Maybot, and its been the law of diminishing returns ever since. He should have gone then.

Instead, he’s going to get to skulk off having gifted Boris Johnson a majority to go on to deliver a ‘Tory Brexit’ – to use Jeremy’s words – then christ only knows what.

The far-right will be toasting Jeremy Corbyn for decades to come

Polls: Depends what you want from them. To choose an example entirely at random, you can say that the PM has a massive lead in the polls that correlates with the public mood of ‘brexit’, but you can also say in the same breath that Corbyn’s woeful performance in the polls is because people don’t know they want to vote for him yet.
Yeah, amazing, isn’t it?

Yeah… that ain’t happening again.

Would have thought by now you would have got out of the predictions business having proved so utterly shit at it.

Morning comrade. Is the revolution progressing ok?

So, in an upcoming election…do you see the proletariat throwing off the shackles of their capitalist oppressors and rallying behind Jeremy to deliver the bright socialist future (outside the EU)?

Is that chewy?

Would have thought by now you would have got out of the predictions business having proved so utterly shit at it.

Absolutely.

He’a covered most bases though.

He prefers all the strong candidates for PM such as Watson, Rory Stewart and Jess Phillips.

Morning comrade. Is the revolution progressing ok?

Portugal are doing okay without you.

I see the Momentum tried and faithful failed to get Jess Phillips deselected this week, to make way for another Corbynite sock puppet?

Still… nice to see them applying their energies to the most pressing problems facing the nation

Yeah… that ain’t happening again. And let’s not forget… he still lost. Despite it then being painted as some great victory.

Peak Corbyn was reached in 2017 when he faced the worst election campaigner in history in the Maybot, and its been the law of diminishing returns ever since. He should have gone then

Socialism v the status-quo is always going to be a hard sell. The fact that it was as close as itn was some achievement.

But if you’re happy with all the shit that’s gone down pre-Brexit then by all means keep supporting it.

Socialism v the status-quo is always going to be a hard sell. The fact that it was as close as it was some achievement.

Counts for nothing. He lost. We still got a Tory government. And look where that got us.

But if you’re happy with all the shit that’s gone down pre-Brexit then by all means keep supporting it.

Ah yes… the usual. If you don’t support Jeremey you’re a Tory/Yellow Tory/ Red Tory/Blairite scum*

There are lots of things to be bloody angry about with the pre-brexit ‘status-quo’. Lots of things. Yet we have a leader of the labour party that, against by far the worst government this country has ever seen, is still dismally failing to offer the nation a viable alternative that even natural labour voters are prepared to support, never mind floating voters in key marginals that are needed to deliver a majority

The Corbyn experiment has utterly failed by any metric (usual common room popularity exemption applies, obvs). He needs to be gone and the party needs to have a serious look at itself as it is presently a dithering, paralysed electoral irrelevance. And I don’t know if you’d noticed, but we could use an effective opposition right now, and for the last 3 years while Jezza and co have been AWOL

* delete as applicable

Since we are talking polls

Labour's Brexit policy is a mystery to me:

Agree: 66%
Disagree: 18%

78% of Leave voters, 59% of Remain voters, and 47% of Labour voters agree.

via @ComRes, 04 – 06 Oct

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 8, 2019

So you don’t think there is a correlation with how much more popular Johnson is now versus May who offered up a wishy-washy Brexit solution?

Given Boris is offering no concession to the remainers and Corbyn moved towards remain how can you not extrapolate that at all?

(Also my argument mainly lies with the ‘predictors’ on here who insisted that if Corbyn moved towards remain he would lap up the electorate. Where has that argument gone?)

He hasn’t gone remain strongly enough, the reason the stories are in the lead is that the remain vote is split.

He hasn’t gone remain strongly enough

I wonder why that could be…

A real head scratcher, isn’t it?