EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Time to move on.

For sure.

So, what exactly are we aiming to replace our membership of the EU with?

What’s going to change for the better after we’ve left, that couldn’t be achieved without giving up EU membership?

(Still feels like it’s July 2016 to me.)

Time to move on.

For sure.

So, what exactly are we aiming to replace our membership of the EU with?

What’s going to change for the better after we’ve left, that couldn’t be achieved without giving up EU membership?

(Still feels like it’s July 2016 to me.)

I’ve got quite a few friends who’ve been heavily involved in the leave campaign. Some have direct experience of working in the EU as an organisation. I don’t agree with them, but these are the main things they think we’ll achieve by leaving:

Lower immigration from within and outwith the EU.
Fewer rules and regulations forced on us by an outside body. I have to say that I do agree with them on this – MEPS are constantly voting on new EU wide laws that often don’t make any sense when applied to a specific country.
Less interference by lobbyists.
More accountability.

As I said, these aren’t my views, but, even as a staunch remainer, I can see that some of them make sense to some extent.

JP

My tuppence-worth would be to observe that whilst those are perhaps true, I’m less sure what the benefit of those truisms would be.

I’m now resigned to Brexit happening, and just hope that the damage caused is not as bad as we fear…

Which rules and regulations are we dumping?

What has immigration “outwith” the EU, into the UK, go to do with the EU?

Farage said during the election night coverage that Johnson would be less beholden to the ERG

There are mutterings that while there are around 60 actual ERG ers they have enough sympathisers that they could make things very uncomfortable for Boris if things do go enough their way.

Fewer rules and regulations forced on us by an outside body. I have to say that I do agree with them on this –

That’s probably true as long as you don’t want to do any trade deals. If you do, then meeting someone else’s rules an regs will be baked in. You can’t get away from that unless you go WTO rules. But then the WTO is setting the rules, so you are still having them forced on you by an outside body. The !Ain difference being you want have any votes at all on them.

Fewer rules and regulations forced on us by an outside body.

Out of interest, what outside body are they referring to, and how are they forced? I presume they mean the EU which we are (currently) in and have a say and often a veto. Once we are out I expect we’ll find out a bit more about having rules forced on us by an outside body

That was Brexit, but after that it’ll be spending money on the North

Do you think they will?

Fewer rules and regulations forced on us by an outside body.

The UK has voted against 2% of EU proposals – about 70 items, none of them of any great significance.

kelvin

Subscriber

Which rules and regulations are we dumping?

What has immigration “outwith” the EU, into the UK, go to do with the EU?

Before I say this, I should reiterate that these aren’t my views, in case this gets taken out of context.

Regarding non-EU immigration, I’d imagine they are referring to the migrant crisis in the Middle East and the subsequent migration through EU countries to the UK, and/or pressure put on the UK by the EU to take more migrants.

One of my friends was an advisor for an MEP. His problem with the EU is that MEPs would regularly be required to vote on things about which they had no understanding, and were given very little time to gain any understanding due to sheer volume. Article 13 is a good example, but there are loads of others, including one about invasive species – a regulation that apparently was pertinent to certain countries, but detrimental to others, yet was implemented throughout the EU.

JP

I wasn’t going to do them all but I’ve bitten now.

Lower immigration from within and outwith the EU.

Probably true but mostly because we now come across less friendly and welcoming. Anyway, immigration is a good thing and from break down of the stats it seems it’s places that don’t have much of it that seemed more inclined to vote against it.

Less interference by lobbyists.
More accountability

They’ve a lot more faith in the Tory party than me if they genuinely feel this to be true

As a remainer I’m glad that this uncertainty phase is over. The tories were always going to win this election, which makes me wonder as to the wisdom of those in Parliament who let him have his election.

That said, the “remain” parties and independents couldn’t get it together because they wanted different flavours of remain, just like there are different versions of brexit. The tories offered brexit, but we still don’t really know what type of brexit it will be. Brexit means Brexit…

But this is merely the end of chapter one in season one. We will return to the EU. Certain things will have to happen though.

The first thing we can guarantee is the tories will **** up brexit. They haven’t been exactly competent in the previous three years. This is where reality will strike, attempts at getting a trade deal with the worlds largest trading bloc, will take longer than the December 2020 timetable allows, a lot longer. If they wish to conclude a deal within the timetable, then the demands from the EU will be greater. Other countries we wish to trade with will probably not sign deals with the UK until the nature of our relationship with the EU is confirmed, And then trying to trade with the US, China etc, and how one sided those deals will be. At this point some may start thinking that Britain isn’t quite so great as they were led to believe…

At the same time all the usual tory stuff will kick in like Crumbling NHS, schools etc, and the folk in those constituencies that switched sides will realise they are once again being shat on and drift back to voting labour.

The Labour party. Plain and simple, it needs to be re-taken from the left. Due to the nature of the FPTP voting system, the labour party has a much more difficult balancing act to perform than than the tories, it has to appeal to working class voters, and to win elections, middle class voters as well. It can’t do that as it stands. It will be made all the more difficult when Scotland leaves the Union.

If the ‘left’ ever wants to steer the U.K. again we have to accept the views of others, we’re supposed to the the open minded ones after all!

The left can be as bad as the right when it comes to accepting the views of others, The middle have been the worst offenders when it comes to accepting the views of others, literally liberal pacifism.

“I do not agree with what you say, But I defend your right to say it.” And look where it has gotten us.

This is as old as the hills, but the saying goes “If you do not make the future for yourselves, others will do it for you.” I’m sick of losing to these charlatans, liars, xenophobes, if you want it to be better, fight for it, and to use the phrase used by Boris and his gang when he became PM, “by ANY means necessary.”

WTOs in trouble anyway with it’s trade resolution being stymied by trump, could even cause its collapse.

Which rules and regulations are we dumping?

Tampon tax.

One of my friends was an advisor for an MEP. His problem with the EU is that MEPs would regularly be required to vote on things about which they had no understanding, and were given very little time to gain any understanding due to sheer volume

Ahh like mays Borises withdrawal bill.

This is pretty much the same as any normal MP/PM it’s er why you have advisors to explain shit to you.

As a remainer I’m glad that this uncertainty phase is over.

Uncertainty over? You’re counting chickens there methinks.
The course we’re heading down means 10 years of uncertainty I’d say. Not necessarily followed by anything good (might be, might not)

Regarding non-EU immigration, I’d imagine they are referring to the migrant crisis in the Middle East and the subsequent migration through EU countries to the UK, and/or pressure put on the UK by the EU to take more migrants.

You do realise that a mix of military invention and climate change is really going to accelerate migration.

On reflection how do you think the tories will square the circle that is the puzzle of Brexit?

1. Keep inward investment from large multinationals that want easy/require access to the EU.
2. Make trade deals with the rest of the world.
3. Provide enough skilled and non skilled workers to drive our economy.
4. Protect our own industries and producers for being undercut.
5. Open borders in the UK
6. No border between s and n Ireland
7. Controlled borders between the UK and the rest of the world.
8. Reduce cost and bureaucracy
9. Make decisions and laws ourselves

Will they now be more pragmatic and do brexit in name only or go the whole hog and go WTO? I am discounting a unicorn Brexit but who knows?

A part of me is expecting a brexit in name only now as that is what a lot of people who support brexit are expecting even if they say something different. Then again real brexit does seem to be the choice of some.

Do we get duty free back? Was that the whole point anyway?

Putting on my berret, here’s what I’d hope my president’s reation to that would be:

1/ No chance, If you think that you can abuse your new position think again. You’re not in the club anymore, access conditions aren’t the same.
2/ If you do better than the EU in that you can forget 1/
3/ Best invest in education then
4/ So now you’re going to be protectionist and still want 1/ and 2/ *laughs*
5/ That’s your business but remember the Good Friday agreement and NI is not going to be a bcakdoor in the EU
6/ See 5/
7/ You can control them as much as you want, we’ll have a few billion if you want us to keep controlling people leaving at our end though.
8/ But Brexit will increase it, But whatever.
9/ Don’t expect to trade with us unless you respect our regulations.

That’s why everyone sent to talk with Barnier gets back with egg on their face. A social dumping, fiscal dumping, cheap labour, unfair competition Britain; that’s what Europeans see as the objectives of Brexit. I’m sure my president is fully aware of this and would like to get reelected.

Was going to ask this as a new thread but appreciate that there are lots already on here about brexit.

So, I have no real understanding beyond the rudimentary of the mechanisms that control interest rates but are we likely to see them pushing up as a result of brexit?

On reflection how do you think the tories will square the circle that is the puzzle of Brexit?

The Brexit that was sold to the gullible was “all the benefits of the club, plus extras, without having to pay the club subscription or abide by the club rules. Because you’re special (British).”. As remoaners have been pointing out since before the referendum, this is not possible. But to get the gullible to admit this requires them to admit both that they are gullible and have fallen for a con, but also that they are not special. So Johnson has to deliver a Brexit that is not too obviously catastrophic for Britain, and if he can do that the gullible will probably accept it, because it will be preferable to admitting the above. Which points to BRINO.

There is another option, which is a hard Brexit, maximum damage, blame the usual suspects, and use the resulting anger to fuel a full-on slide into fascism.

Right now, I think the chances of these two outcomes are about 50/50.

Lower immigration from within and outwith the EU.

1) Brexit will almost certainly lower EU immigration and vastly increase non-EU immigration. Brexit will bring literally the opposite of what they want.

2) We can already impose greater control on immigration and choose not to. We don’t need to leave the EU to do that.

Fewer rules and regulations forced on us by an outside body. I have to say that I do agree with them on this

1) As a controlling member of the EU we already help create those rules, the notion that an “outside body” is imposing anything on us that we don’t agree to or want is a myth. The EU is no more an outside body than Westminster is to Wales.

2) If we hope to trade with the EU27 post-brexit then we’ll still have to accept those rules, we just won’t have a say in making them any longer. Again, brexit will bring literally the opposite of what they want.

3) WTO = almost 300 other countries telling us what to do.

Less interference by lobbyists.

More accountability.

I have no idea what either of these are supposed to mean. Which lobbyists? What’s not accountable currently? Pithy soundbites and no substance, something something sovereignty something.

Your friends are in for a shock.

@cougar, I think @GEDA was pointing out that these things cannot be delivered, isn’t that what square the circle means?

which makes me wonder as to the wisdom of those in Parliament who let him have his election.

Well I did say that Swinson cared more for her own hubris than she did about stopping brexit but it’s all academic now 🙂 She’ll go down in history as the person who hammered the final nail in the coffin.

Brexit will almost certainly lower EU immigration and vastly increase non-EU immigration. Brexit will bring literally the opposite of what they want.

And the seeds of Johnson’s undoing are right here. Without immigration the economy will tank, and the NHS collapse, two things he’s promised to solve. He’s given himself a no-win situation. Obviously he thinks that british white people, forced by a squeeze on benefits will step in to fill the gap, but I think he may have underestimated their lack of skills and/or fecklessness.

The British population could fill the gap, for sure, but they need a lot more investment in education, skills and experiences, and they need places to work in places they live. That’s would take decades of investment. Of course, if the government had been investing in it for decades already instead of just leaving it to sort itself out, we’d be fine.

It’s supply and demand. Cut off the supply of convenient skilled labour and demand will drive home grown supply (or technology). Cutting off demand for services will make a big difference. Our population should be in decline.

Boris can afford short term problems. He’s got 15 years to sort things out.

Cut off the supply of convenient skilled labour and demand will drive home grown supply (or technology).

Or the businesses will simply move to where that labour already exists, because, you know, global.

Is Dazh still banging on about Swinson? As if Corbyn wasn’t calling for an election he couldn’t win for months, no, years, instead of the public having a referendum to settle Br3xit first, and then after that having a General Election, with the Br3xit weapon reduced in effectiveness for the Conservative Brexit Party campaign team.

Our population should be in decline.

Well, you’ll get that result with your staggeringly genius plan. Those that haven’t already died from curable illnesses will likely starve to death, unless soylent green is on the menu.

Is Dazh still banging on about Swinson?

You seem to have forgotten that the reason the election happened was because Swinson and the SNP broke ranks from the ‘rebel alliance’ because they thought they could benefit from favourable polling. The SNP were right so you can hardly blame them. Swinson however went against the advice of many senior lib dem colleagues, fuelled by hubristic fantasies that she could be PM.

Plus, when will the “we were alright before” brigade get it into their skulls that things take time?

We can train up a doctor say, or a teacher, with several years of education and training, at a cost of tens of thousands of pounds, or we can import one who’s already qualified, immediately, for free. Which makes most sense?

Because we’ve already seen what happens with your brilliant master plan. When all the immigrant workers buggered off back where they came from, did the plucky Brits all jump up and go “fantastic, loads of opportunities for a summer job picking fruit”? No, they left it all to rot in the fields.

Or the businesses will simply move to where that labour already exists, because, you know, global.

Not sure how the NHS can move abroad. Is that the Trump buying the NHS thing?

Well, you’ll get that result with your staggeringly genius plan. Those that haven’t already died from curable illnesses will likely starve to death, unless soylent green is on the menu.

Brexit is the solution to the climate emergency! Who knew?

Who exactly is going to staff your utopian white British NHS?

You’ve thought about this, haven’t you.

fuelled by hubristic fantasies that she could be PM

Well, that is true. But from outside the Corbyn bubble… him spending so damn long turning calls for a “public vote on Brexit” from within his own party into his own call for a General Election he could not win, especially before Brexit had either happened or been stopped, looks like similar hubris.

Who exactly is going to staff your utopian white British NHS?

What has colour got to do with working in the NHS?

I guess a look at the Japanese health service would be useful. They manage to exist as a country without a population ponzi scheme.

Cut off the supply of convenient skilled labour and demand will drive home grown supply (or technology).

That will take a decade or more, and really needs social transformation too. And ideally free university (whose policy was that again?) because the debt thing really puts people off a lot, even though it shouldn’t because the current system is not a bad fudge even if it’s not ideal.

The problem is that during that decade we will be ****, and we will lose investment and high-skill businesses, which will work against that aim. Companies cannot wait a decade for new recruits. It may be possible to make it work but it will need a HELL of a lot of management and investment. Is Boris up to it? I’m sceptical but I’ll be happy if he is.

Brexit will almost certainly lower EU immigration and vastly increase non-EU immigration. Brexit will bring literally the opposite of what they want.

That happened almost immediately following the referendum.

I guess a look at the Japanese health service would be useful. They manage to exist as a country without a population ponzi scheme.

you mean the country with a well reported ‘demographic time bomb’?

you mean the country with a well reported ‘demographic time bomb’?

That’s been the mantra since the 80s. Still ticking.

We need to get away from infinite growth sooner rather than later.

That will take a decade or more, and really needs social transformation too. And ideally free university (whose policy was that again?) because the debt thing really puts people off a lot, even though it shouldn’t because the current system is not a bad fudge even if it’s not ideal.

The problem is that during that decade we will be ****, and we will lose investment and high-skill businesses, which will work against that aim. Companies cannot wait a decade for new recruits. It may be possible to make it work but it will need a HELL of a lot of management and investment. Is Boris up to it? I’m sceptical but I’ll be happy if he is.

Yeah, we’ll stumble along in our usual fashion.

I’m not convinced universities are the solution. If anything they’re a problem. Little more than adult child care wasting years of productivity and teaching few anything useful.

You can learn more in your free time in a few months on the internet than on most degrees. More of that is the solution.

You can learn more in your free time in a few months on the internet than on most degrees.

Better pull my son out of his Paramedic Training then; he’ll be able to pick it up off Google pretty quickly.