The gop leadership and the qanon nutters are still under his spell, but his polling numbers even in gop strongholds are awful.

I think it shows that trump and johnson are just lucky, everything fell into place for them. They are not great Machiavellian strategists, there is no co-ordinated evil plan that they were in control of, the dice just kept coming up sixes for them.

Cheney knows this, that they can’t just rely on dumb luck every time, but the gop leadership are like gambling addicts chasing their losses by continuing playing the same game making bigger bets.

I think it shows that trump and johnson are just lucky, everything fell into place for them.

I think Trump has a natural flair for showmanship and sensing what a crowd wants. When he first started out doing his rallies, he tried out a bunch of different things and spotted what the crowds responded to, “Lock her up,” for example. He just keeps on hammering away on those things and drops anything that doesn’t work. That got him support from a majority of Republicans (>50% of 35% of the electorate = roughly 20% of Americans). That support got him the nomination. A lot of people didn’t take his more extreme stuff seriously, they assumed he was a smart guy who knew how to run a huge company and would get stuff done. Hillary Clinton was a dreadful candidate with decades of baggage so Republican voters voted Republican despite reservations about Trump.

As soon as Trump was inaugurated, his incompetence was obvious and his approval ratings pretty much never got over 50%. The 2018 midterm elections were brutal for Republicans, Trump motivated millions of voters to switch their votes from Republican to Democrat. Same with 2020 – Trump did motivate the Republican base voters to turn out, but he motivated Democrats even more.

Problem is, he still has the support of >50% of Republicans, despite being extremely unpopular overall. Republican politicians know this so they’re all too scared to cross him. Most seats in Congress are safe seats so the only threat to the sitting members is a primary challenge from other Republicans. They all know that what they’re doing is crazy, but they have no incentive to say what they really know is true.

At some point in the near future, Trump’s “less than legal” relationship with other peoples/banks money is going to come knocking on his front door, and if they’re not careful, it will spiral out of control to those closest to him. While it would be sort of funny from a distance to watch previously Trumpian hand-puppets get taken away in handcuffs, I don’t think it will do anything good in the short term for US politics.

it’s hard not to conclude the the GOP while knowing that they’re on a downward spiral, because of the choices they made, are still going to make everyone else suffer for their mistakes.

it’s hard not to conclude the the GOP while knowing that they’re on a downward spiral, because of the choices they made, are still going to make everyone else suffer for their mistakes.

Yep. There’s a whole lot of Republican politicians waiting for Trump to get out of the way so they can try to pick up his base voters. That means they are competing to be even more extreme than he was. If he does end up in jail, the obvious campaign promise will be to pardon him and his buddies for any federal crimes and to “investigate” any state attorneys general that prosecuted him. Gonna get worse, not better.

Problem is, he still has the support of >50% of Republicans,

Not anymore, that number has been declining ever since he left office and is now around 45%. The number of republican voters want the party to move on is the majority and increasing despite the gops leadership trying to push his narrative.

@superficial (and others)

It’s quite bizarre how Republican voters think they’re the party of hard-working, honest, law-and-order types. Without realising that those things are completely incompatible with believing in weirdo nut job stuff like QAnon, adrenochrome, pizzagate and stolen elections.

I think you need to take a step back and realize this is just what the media is feeding you for entertainment.

The “news” that the overwhelming majority of people are completely normal and sit in the center ground doesn’t keep you reading their tweets and watching their news channels 24/7.

You’re falling for just the same type of “othering” as the Trumpist fringe is trying to achieve on the other side.

American politics swings on very small margins (it’s a FPTP system after all), Trump’s “base” is a very vocal fringe minority that it turned out was larger than the swing voters. The remainder of the republican voters probably equally hate him, “but at least he’s not Clinton/Biden”.

that number has been declining ever since he left office and is now around 45%.

Yes, I haven’t followed any polling since the election, but 45% is still much more than any other single Republican politician. Nobody else in the Republican party has the support to take on Trump and beat him.

this is just what the media is feeding you for entertainment.

Nah. Spend some time in comment sections of YouTube, Twitter, TikTok etc.
These people are not media creations. They exist and are extremely vocal about their insane conspiracy theories.

Despite Ron Watkins taking a step back I still regularly see people publicly spouting Q nonsense online and that’s just what escapes the echo chambers where this stuff festers.

Nah. Spend some time in comment sections of YouTube, Twitter, TikTok etc.
These people are not media creations. They exist and are extremely vocal about their insane conspiracy theories.

Despite Ron Watkins taking a step back I still regularly see people publicly spouting Q nonsense online and that’s just what escapes the echo chambers where this stuff festers.

Except that’s the 1% of the 1% of the 1%. And they exist to get you to watch their youtube, Twitter or ticktock, that’s their job, and the comments section is just their echo chamber.

The other 328million people in the USA just get up in the morning, go to work, pay taxes, and every 2 years vote red or blue.

The majority don’t even own a gun, not even the majority of households.

Except that’s the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

Sure but underestimating the power of conspiracy, fringes and non-traditional media is partly how we got Trump and the Jan 6th insurrection.

These people are noisy empty vessels, but some of them have hundreds of thousands of followers and plenty more that don’t follow but still see their content, believe it and repeat it.

A lot of the anti-mask anti-vaccine rhetoric getting spread at the moment is linked to the same nut jobs. Just as all the child-trafficking stuff was before.

There are people that take Lin Wood seriously! And Simon Parkes!

Except that’s the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

No, it’s a lot more than that.

The majority don’t even own a gun, not even the majority of households.

If you go to rural areas, I think you’ll find gun ownership is pretty normal. If you go to cities in Democratic states, much less so. Republican messaging is targeting the nutty people in Republican states, they’re the voters that dominate Republican primary elections. Keeping them happy is the only thing that matters if you want to go to Congress.

Except that’s the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

It’s not.

A few years ago, I worked with an-ex US Marine. He came across as a normal person.

When the electoral fraud stuff was all over the internet, he posted something on a mutual friends FB post. It was a link to a right wing nut job, Trump is still president, the Clintons are peado, blood drinking satanists.

There are a lot of Americans who believe that stuff.

Except that’s the 1% of the 1% of the 1%

Sure, but part of that group is Marjorie-Tyler Greene

And by that argument is everyone to the right of you in UK politics a supporter of this guy?

Sure but underestimating the power of conspiracy, fringes and non-traditional media is partly how we got Trump and the Jan 6th insurrection.

The other part is a complete inability of the left to be much better (“we” put Corbyn up as a candidate for PM don’t forget).

The ability to empathize with another person’s worldview and construct arguments around that seems to have been lost in favor of ad hominem attacks from both sides.

Republican messaging is targeting the nutty people in Republican states,

Exactly.

(and the overall figure for gun ownership is IIRC somewhere around 10-15% depending on what estimate you use for unregistered firearms and how you distribute them)

And by that argument is everyone to the right of you in UK politics a supporter of this guy?

No no, not at all, I was trying to say that as fringe as those views are, they still have enough of a movement in US politics  to vote in loonies like Greene who has views that are seen as valid to them. Apologies I wasn’t clear.

And we elect fringe people too.

Remember at their peak UKIP won 13% of the general election vote (but thanks to FPTP only one seat).

Remember at their peak UKIP won 13% of the general election vote

Not really fringe though when given the chance 52% voted for their policy of Brexit

It’s not often that I agree with gobuchul but

It’s not.

A few years ago, I worked with an-ex US Marine. He came across as a normal person.

When the electoral fraud stuff was all over the internet, he posted something on a mutual friends FB post. It was a link to a right wing nut job, Trump is still president, the Clintons are peado, blood drinking satanists.

I’ve experienced this from a friend who is also an ex-US Marine. It’s obviously nuts, but certain media outlets have made stuff like this mainstream – once again you only have to look at the posts made by our resident non-sequitur loving troll to see how the loonier assertions are accepted as fact by vulnerable people.

Not really fringe though when given the chance 52% voted for their policy of Brexit

People love simple solutions and explanations for complex problems. People were told that the EU is coming for our tea/light bulbs/sovereignty etc and thanks to social media, the disseminators of this guff found a way to reach their target audiences. The same is true for Trump – billions of dollars have been spent in attempts to remove context from slogans and thus persuade people to vote against their own interests.

The only real short term answers are to hold those disseminators of counter-factual material to account, which is no easy thing when there are vested corporate interests involved from some of the largest and most powerful businesses in the world.

Speaking of right-wing nutters, the NRA just took a brutal thrashing in court.

Professor Adam Levitin, a bankruptcy expert at Georgetown University, described the NRA’s bankruptcy strategy as “remarkably hare-brained” that raised the question, “what the hell were they thinking?” He pointed to several specific problems in the NRA’s case that led to the bad-faith determination.

“If you’re going to do a sketchy filing, the lesson from SGL Carbon was don’t tell everyone that you’re solvent and doing the filing to stiff a single creditor in your press release,” he wrote on Tuesday. “Yet, that’s exactly what the NRA did. Additionally, the pre-filing governance moves were really iffy (never telling the board of directors!), the creation of a forum-shopping sub completely blatant, and the NRA and its counsel never had their story straight about why they were filing.”

https://thereload.com/experts-paint-grim-picture-for-nra-after-bankruptcy-gamble-goes-bust/

Easy to mistake this article for parody.

Basically a large proportion of the people who worked with Trump came away deeply dismayed by his mental capabilities. O’Keefe, Ledeen, et al., looking at this epidemic of Trump appointees who consider him a complete moron, decided the problem was a deep-state cabal subverting Trump. And then, despite investing large sums of money, the expertise of a British spy, and several attractive women, did not get anybody calling Trump an idiot on camera. This would be like luring a group of tourists into the desert without air conditioning in the goal of getting somebody to say they’re hot, and failing.

Imagine spending tens of thousands of dollars to get people to secretly call Trump an idiot, and failing https://t.co/IjhucjFeZa

— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) May 13, 2021

Wait, what? That is a pro-Trump trying to honeytrap normal workers into telling a camera that Trump is an idiot? What?

@willard that’s how I read it too. Were they trying to draw their anti-trump members out into the open so they could be identified and expelled? That doesn’t seem right, I’m scratching my head..

Yes, they wanted to try and identify deep-state agents within the Trump administration working to sabotage the Ranting Shitgibbon’s plans.

Republican who runs that Arizona county has lost his patience…

Wow. This is unhinged. I’m literally looking at our voter registration database on my other screen. Right now.

We can’t indulge these insane lies any longer. As a party. As a state. As a country.

This is as readily falsifiable as 2+2=5. If we don’t call this out… pic.twitter.com/5tDy1wsZg6

— Stephen Richer — County Recorder (personal acct) (@stephen_richer) May 15, 2021

Until more genuine Republicans stand up and call out the “insane lies” he will continue to draw in the weak willed and wishful thinkers.

I think the sooner that Republicans realise that their party is now a Trump/Lie promoting machine, the better. There’s talk now I think of a 3rd party.

FFS, is there a single honest person in MAGAland?

Students for Trump founder John Lambert sentenced to 13 months for posing as lawyer https://t.co/6oxSTa2YxS

— Liz (@nwjerseyliz) May 18, 2021

Told an IT friend (usually Republican) of mine about the "deleted data". This is his response.

R-Studio recovery is a $50 consumer grade product. pic.twitter.com/Gw3gbdosRf

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) May 18, 2021

Morecash, nickc,

I was watching Beau of the fifth column on YouTube and he was emphasising that if the ‘real’ Republicans are thinking that they need to split from the Trump party then they have to act now. They have to put up candidates in the mid terms else it will all be too little too late.

BBC News – New York prosecutor says Trump inquiry now ‘criminal’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57166735

About to get very shouty, I suspect.

But he’s such a great businessman…

Do they normally announce that an enquiry is now criminal? I’ve never seen that sort of announcement before. Is this just a warning shot to the Trump followers. A shot across the bows so it’s not a huge shock when he gets arrested?

If not, what is the purpose of this announcement?

Do they normally announce that an enquiry is now criminal?

I think when it’s cases like this, yeah mostly they do, it’s  a public investigation, so they may as well get the announcement out there under their terms.

I’m guessing they put it out there ahead of the colossal smokescreen he’s going to put out about Democrats bring mean to him.

what is the purpose of this announcement?

From what I read elsewhere, they informed Trump’s lawyers that the inquiry had been expanded to potentially include criminal matters. I assume they are required to keep the Trump side informed of developments and this is just keeping the public informed as well.

Did we already discuss the quote from the “QAnon Shaman”‘s lawyer?

Watkins, the “Q Shaman” Jacob Chansley’s attorney, said his client had Asperger’s syndrome and indicated that Chansley’s mental state — and the impact of Trump’s “propaganda” efforts — would play a role in his case.

“A lot of these defendants — and I’m going to use this colloquial term, perhaps disrespectfully — but they’re all f***ing short-bus people,” Watkins told TPM. “These are people with brain damage, they’re f***ing retarded, they’re on the goddamn spectrum.”

“But they’re our brothers, our sisters, our neighbors, our coworkers — they’re part of our country. These aren’t bad people, they don’t have prior criminal history. ****, they were subjected to four-plus years of goddamn propaganda the likes of which the world has not seen since f***ing Hitler.”

Amazing.

More in the Talking Point Memo article: Capitol Rioters’ ‘Trump Defense’ Comes Up Again And Again. Will It Make A Difference?

One of Trumps losing 2020 temper tantrum

Miller told associates he had three goals for the final weeks of the Trump administration: #1: No major war. #2: No military coup. #3: No troops fighting citizens on the streets.

A lot of these defendants — and I’m going to use this colloquial term, perhaps disrespectfully — but they’re all f***ing short-bus people,” Watkins told TPM. “These are people with brain damage, they’re f***ing retarded, they’re on the goddamn spectrum.

or as Trump put it watching them on telly “low class”.

they informed Trump’s lawyers

He still has one? After the A-Team, the Tiger Team, the Ninja-Squad, the Lawyer SEALS and all these other indefatigables ran away crying, I suppose there’s always the public defender