I find all the points, etc, a bit mindboggling, so I thought I’d get my computer to Do Maths, and this is what I discovered.
Currently the standings are[1]:
* Balanche 1335
* Hoell 1216
* Nicole 1155
* Farina 951
And so far as I understand, qualies points for the final round are added to the race day points, so points up for grabs are:
* P1 250, P2 200, P3 170, P4 150, P5 130, P6 111, P7 94, P8 82, P9 70, P10 60, P11 45, P12 35, P13 25, P14 15, P15 5
Obviously there’s no way for Farina to take the overall, so the people who could win are Balanche, Hoell, and Nicole.
Hoell v.s. Balanche:
* if Hoell gets P1, Balanche must get P4 or better to win overall,
* if Hoell gets P2, Balanche must get P5 or better,
* if Hoell gets P3, Balanche must get P11 or better,
* if Hoell gets P4, Balanche must get P13 or better,
* if Hoell gets P5, Balanche must get P15 or better.
* if Hoell gets P6, Balanche wins whatever.
Nicole v.s. Balanche:
* if Nicole gets P1, Balanche must get P10 or better to win overall,
* if Nicole gets P2, Balanche must get P14 or better,
* if Nicole gets P3, Balanche wins whatever
So maybe the ideal for Balanche would be for Hoell to have a World-Champs-confidence-inspired mistake to allow a fired-up Nicole to take P1.
Still, it’s quite an ask for a freshly-plated collarbone to ride that track at all! It will be an exciting race.
[1] https://www.redbull.com/int-en/uci-mtb-world-cup-overall-standings