anything above 10,000 unconfirmed transactions tends to slow things down

Currently showing 226,000 unconfirmed transactions.

Seems to have dropped from £12,500 to £11,500 this morning.

Is this the beginning of the crash? Or “Blow off phase” on Footflaps’ diagram.

Even if banks start using BlockChain, it won’t be Bitcoin and it won’t increase bitcoins value. Bitcoin can’t scale (already struggling with transaction volume), so it has no long term wide scale future. The underlying technology probably has a future, but that doesn’t add any intrinsic value to Bitcoin (which has an intrinsic value of nothing).

Some of us have seen these tech bubbles before…

You are making some fairly bold assertions on this thread. What makes you think it can’t scale? It is under constant development. Segwit and the Lightning network for example.

NewRetroTom – Member
anything above 10,000 unconfirmed transactions tends to slow things down
Currently showing 226,000 unconfirmed transactions.

Seems to have dropped from £12,500 to £11,500 this morning.

Is this the beginning of the crash? Or “Blow off phase” on Footflaps’ diagram.

Or the take off? 8)

What makes you think it can’t scale?

For it to gain widespread adoption it will need to be regulated, which will mean speculative bubbles will be prevented from happening.

If the current Bitcoin incarnation does manage to grow, it will also be regulated or outlawed as having a wildly unstable unregulated money laundering scheme is in no one’s long term interests.

Either way, at some point Bitcoin is going to come crashing down and it won’t go back up….

It’s take off was in 2013 really when it went over $1000 dollars then returned to around $200. It only really got going again the Spring of this year; I’e been following it all through this as a mate got in big-time in 2014 and was curious to see how it would work out. He could now retire but has no plans to sell.

Is this the beginning of the crash? Or “Blow off phase” on Footflaps’ diagram.

We’re in the Greed / Delusion phase ie. wide spread media attention, every man and his dog want to get in on it, people claiming it’s the ‘future’ not knowing what ‘it’ even is or having the faintest clue about economics / monetary policy.

The unknown is how long it will stay there and how high it will get.

There’s even a IFA at my gym recommending people buy it…

it will also be regulated or outlawed

how

how

Trivial.

At some point a transaction takes place between real money, eg GBP, and speculative bubble money eg Bitcoin. Those companies use real banks which are already regulated, so you just regulate the ability to exchange real money into Bitcoin.

Could easily prevent anyone in the UK buying / selling.

It’s no different to regulating gambling or share dealing, most of the regulation / tax takes place at the transaction point.

Yes a very small number of geeks might use the onion router to connect to a Chinese bitcoin exchange and buy/sell, but how do they get their money back to the UK to spend? They’d be in the same situation as drug dealers trying to launder money, only harder as it’s not cash….

Just need Europe and US to start regulating and the bubble would burst overnight.

All this Robin Hood BS, “taking over from the banks”, ‘giving back control’ is just a teenage wet dream.

But I can already buy and sell bitcoin using sites in various countries around the world in yen, gbp, usd, rubles or whatever. In fact I already do use EUR because it saves fees. The process is trivial.

I don’t see how that can be regulated given that anybody around the world can pop up a new site at any time to perform the exchange of fiat for crypto.

The world has done a fairly good job of killing off file sharing. OK you can still do it but most people don’t bother anymore. Surely this is no different? Country policy to block access to servers etc.

mrjmt – Member

The world has done a fairly good job of killing off file sharing. OK you can still do it but most people don’t bother anymore. Surely this is no different? Country policy to block access to servers etc.

What killed file sharing was netflix and spotify, not regulation. Besides piracy is still alive and kicking in the form of live streaming.

But I can already buy and sell bitcoin using sites in various countries around the world in yen, gbp, usd, rubles or whatever. In fact I already do use EUR because it saves fees. The process is trivial.

But can you get the money back to a UK account without using a Regulated banking system.

The answer is not without extreme difficulty.

If the UK banned banks from doing transactions with bitcoin exchanges, you’d be cut off.

What killed file sharing was netflix and spotify, not regulation.

I agree.

The difference is Bitcoin doesn’t offer a service or product 99.99% people want / need, it’s just a method to get rich quick (for the time being). So, once the bubble bursts, 99.99% of users will walk away and never look back. If you’re selling drugs / guns / slaves on the black market, then it has a real value.

Aren’t netflix and spotify the ‘regulated’ equivalents though?

Again, kill the transaction point (torrent tracker servers), kill the system.

He could now retire but has no plans to sell.

he should ! if not all then half his holding, remember Rothchild’s answer to how did you get so rich? “I always sold too soon”

It’s not because they’re regulated it’s because they got the service to a point where it was cheap and easy enough not to bother with piracy.

That is subtlety different to what I think footflaps is saying which if I’m understanding him correctly is that it can be made difficult enough to put off 99% of people with fairly simple regulation.

I.e. one is a carrot, one a stick approach. Same fundamental idea though in that people generally will take the path of least resistance.

My point is Piracy / netflix gave people access to a tangible product they wanted.

Bitcoin isn’t the same. Imagine it was a stable currency with no bubble like behaviour. Who on earth would use it? Fees are higher than paypal, I can’t swipe a debit card in the coop to buy my lunch. It can’t cope with 500 billion+ transactions (that’s just credit cards by the way).

It’s only appeal is the get rich quick / greed as a result of the bubble / not understanding what it really is.

Take away the bubble (with regulation or let it pop of its own accord) and what are you really left with? A method for selling illegal goods in the dark net and a wankfest for a small number of geeks who ‘hate the man’.

Netflix / Spotify offer a tangible product of tangible worth which people pay for using real money…

Without the bubble, there’s bugger all value in Bitcoin (which is not saying no one will ever use Blockchain again).

The whole situation is without precident and quite clearly has its own set of rules.

Said everyone involved in a speculative bubble, ever

Said everyone involved in a speculative bubble, ever

+1

No more boom and bust.

It’s a new Paradigm.

Emperor’s new clothes.

etc etc..

It’s just human nature and the same things repeats endlessly. You see it all the time in industry (on a smaller scale).

He could now retire but has no plans to sell.

he should ! if not all then half his holding, remember Rothchild’s answer to how did you get so rich? “I always sold too soon” [/quote]

yep, going back to 99/2000 and the tech boom. My company was worth something like $4bn and we all had very generous share options.

Each day we’d all come into work and do nothing but watch NASDAQ hit yet another peak, making us all ‘even richer’.

A few older staff sold up and cashed in and all bought Porsches. Us youngsters all thought this was a new paradigm and the old rules didn’t apply. Plus if we sold now, we’d miss out on tomorrow’s 10% rise.

Eventually it all came crashing down and my £0.5m in share options rapidly became worth about 23pence, never to recover!

I had sold a mere £20k IIRC and bought a new fence and double glazing for the house. All paid for by a ‘greater fool’ who’d bought my shares from me in a company which made no money and had no sales, yet was valued at $4bn as we were ‘the next big thing’ apparently.

Either way, at some point Bitcoin is going to come crashing down and it won’t go back up….

That may not be for a while.

Is this the beginning of the crash? Or “Blow off phase” on Footflaps’ diagram.

It’s not either.

Every time it’s corrected it’s reverted back to trend.

It would have to come out of its bull trend first.

Dropping 10% after gaining 90% in a few days is nothing.

I’m having a very similar discussion with one of the young turks at work on slack who has a ‘substantial investment’ in BC. Been plagiarising footflaps points (hope you don’t mind). Think I’ve got him worried.

Loads of people lost £1000s in the tech crash. Lots of investment trust things popped up showing huge growth, so every man and his dog jumped in. Mostly they invested in each other, so it was a circular loop where you actually owned bugger all real tech companies and just loads of other tech trusts. Not that owning tech companies would have helped as most of the really hot ones folded eg Enron, Worldcom etc.

A friend lost £7k when it crashed, which was the max investment in a PIP or SIP or whatever they were called back then.

Been plagiarising footflaps points (hope you don’t mind).

Be my guest.

footflaps – Member
Who on earth would use it? Fees are higher than paypal, I can’t swipe a debit card in the coop to buy my lunch. It can’t cope with 500 billion+ transactions (that’s just credit cards by the way).

This again.

I’ve already said, this is already on the way to being solved, short term.

Lightning network.

Long term it will of course require continual development. But could VISA deal with 500 billion + transactions when they were 5 years old?

As for being able to spend it, it would only take somebody like Coinbase to be available through Apple/Android pay.

I’ve already said, this is already on the way to being solved, short term.

Even if it technically could cope, it won’t be able to replace the regulated financial systems as it’s a chaotic mess. The only countries with inflation anything like Bitcoin are banana republics. A currency with an inflation over 10% is completely useless.

Lets say a new system comes along that solves all the problems and is widely adopted. It won’t be Bitcoin and it will massively devalue Bitcoin as Bitcoin will become completely obsolete.

So, either way, Bitcoin will be devalued….

Blockchain will end up being adopted in the financial world somewhere, but it won’t benefit Bitcoin in the slightest. Just as Porsche bringing out out a new 911 doesn’t make a 10 year old Ford Fiesta worth any more…

As for being able to spend it, it would only take somebody like Coinbase to be available through Apple/Android pay.

Can’t see Apple backing it. When it crashes through the floor and becomes worthless, they’ll not want to be anywhere near it.

What are the equations the GPUs “mine” for?

What are the equations the GPUs “mine” for?

https://www.bitcoinmining.com/what-is-proof-of-work/

footflapps, bitcoin is suffering deflation, not inflation, a bitcoin is worth more tomorrow than today, so why spend. Inflation would mean its worth less so spend it now before it’s worthless.

What are the equations the GPUs “mine” for?

2+2=4-1=3 Quick maths

footflapps, bitcoin is suffering deflation, not inflation, a bitcoin is worth more tomorrow than today, so why spend. Inflation would mean its worth less so spend it now before it’s worthless.

Fair point!

Still completely useless as a major currency though…

Making money by doing nothing* is not a scaleable scenario.

*crunching proof of works is not real work as it adds no intrinsic value to anything.

completely agree footflaps. but it’s interesting watching it happen..

*crunching proof of works is not real work as it adds no intrinsic value to anything.

it makes for an interesting method for guaranteeing unique digital assets but the cost of electricity to maintain this means a variation of bitcoin will end up getting used instead.

Should be outlawed just on environmental grounds!

So I read through it and they mine the actual BitCoins themselves. The Bitcoins are points on an elliptical curve. These points make up the actual block of the currency and are what you trade and are unique due to the Hash or whatever the word was.

Did I get it or am I lost in the wilderness?

Regarding the value of bitcoin and proof of work, the lack of practical application of the solved equations is my biggest concern. It’s not like they aid in making fusion power feasible, or are laying the groundwork for interstellar travel, etc etc.

But then again, gold through the ages has had very little practical value beyond asthetics / decoration (barring recent industrial / electronic uses), and yet has kept its value almost entirely based on perception. Same applies to gemstone diamonds.

I read through it all once and have long since forgotten.

But then again, gold through the ages has had very little practical value beyond asthetics / decoration (barring recent industrial / electronic uses), and yet has kept its value almost entirely based on perception. Same applies to gemstone diamonds.

and goes through the odd bubble eg Silver in 1980 IIRC.

wrt Scalability and fees, this article just published, doesn’t really say much but Lighning is coming

Should be outlawed just on environmental grounds!

And want do you think the social/environment impact of fiat currencies has been, not to mention gold?

You’re on a one-way negative trip and that’s fine but you’re using the hindsight of the tech bubble as the main thrust of your argument.

It’s clear bitcoin won’t be around for ever but then what is, it’s hardly a prediction. If you call when I would be more impressed.

Could this be a trigger for a burst bubble?

Bitcoin heist bbc