Biden. Stay or go?

I’d like to see a debate between Harris and Trump. I’d put money on an ex-lawyer against a racist, sexist grifter.

Let’s remind ourselves that Hillary Clinton graduated from Yale Law School. During her legal career, before she moved into politics,  the National Law Journal named her in their list of the 100 most influential lawyers in the US 🙂

I’d put money on an ex-lawyer

Did you watch the Clinton/Trump debates? I’m not sure these events with Trump involved suit a lawyer… a wrestler might fair better.

The only person who’d come out of a debate well against Trump is Tony Clifton

So the answer is to kill Putin and the global geopolitical situation will change to a much more favourable one.

It is interesting that the luring appeal of conspiracy theories now stretches beyond its core right-wing base.

I guess it makes them particularly attractive if they can be used as an explanation for failures that you might otherwise have to take responsibility for.

@kelvin Will wrestlers dressed up as world leaders do?

I think “the answer” (ie something that could be done) might be to re-regulate broadcast news in the USA, as it was by the FCC before 1987. Something much harder to put in place would be to hold social media companies more to account for how their services are used for disinformation amplification and grifting based on known falsehoods.

Thanks for the earworm @gordimhor … what a tune.

I think it’s a bit late in the day for Biden to step down and Harris go into the election as the serving president, unless some sort of major global event happens where she can show strong leadership but I don’t think any of us really want such an event…

Looks like Trump has got yet more of this countries intellectual heavyweights onside

Kerry Katona endorses Donald Trump for US Presidenthttps://t.co/nLFwnS3QPE pic.twitter.com/X6kQyh5hj5

— OK! Magazine (@OK_Magazine) July 22, 2024

Biden resigning as Pres and having Harris take over as Pres doesn’t give her an unassailable advantage but it does reinforce the image of her as Biden’s stooge with no identity of her own. Her lack of profile to date means she doesn’t start with a platform – but she also doesn’t have a huge amount of baggage to weigh her down in this election.

I’d like to see a debate between Harris and Trump. I’d put money on an ex-lawyer against a racist, sexist grifter.

Starmer didn’t really do that well against Johnson.

Looks like Trump has got yet more of this countries intellectual heavyweights onside

She’s president of Iceland right?

Not sure she be voicing an opinion in her position…

Plus if she is ‘promoted’ to President, it opens up a VP vacancy. The candidate for that would have to ratified by a vote in Congress, so that wouldn’t happen before the election. And means that the Speaker of Congress, currently a weird evangelical Trumper, would be next in line to be president should anything happen to Harris.

It also has a whiff of ‘we didn’t elect her’, which isn’t correct but it is similar to the torys changing leaders/PM’s and that I think isn’t a good look.

Trump lacks the subtlety (and self awareness) to deal with a black woman in a debate. The resulting car crash wouldn’t change the minds of the idiots supporting him but might focus the attention of people who don’t want a racist sex offender in control of their country until 2029.

I think Harris will have a few weeks to see if she cuts thru / the polls improve.  If she does OK then she will get the nomination unopposed.  If she doesn’t then it will be a contested nomination.  Maybe.

She is not going to take votes from the right.  Wrong genitals and wrong skin colour :-).  However she may well be able to get those undecided / swing voters onside.  I think her focus on reproducti9ve rights will be a vote winner.  Anti abortionists will not be voting democrat anyway

I think her a better candidate than H Clinton was

but it does reinforce the image of her as Biden’s stooge with no identity of her own. Her lack of profile to date means she doesn’t start with a platform

If Biden resigns and she becomes president? I would have the actual opposite. If as looks possible  she becomes the official Democrat candidate the fact that she is Biden’s vice president makes her look more like a Biden stooge that if she was the acting president.

It would also obviously mean that she would enter the presidential election with a much bigger profile.

I doubt that it will happen, after all it was quite a job to get Biden to eventually declare that he wouldn’t seek a second term, but personally I am not seeing any obvious negatives to Harris taking over now as acting president.

I think her a better candidate than H Clinton was

Agreed. Plus I also think that US politics have moved a long way since everyone assumed that Trump was a bit of a joke and Hilary would [of course] walk it.

 I am not seeing any obvious negatives to Harris taking over now as acting president.

Questions are already being asked in the press/media/sections of the Democratic party about the legitimacy of her being ‘anointed’ rather than chosen by the party who are free to nominate whoever they want now that Biden has said he’s not running , I think Biden stepping aside to allow her to become Pres smacks of trying to control a very fractious party that would probs cause more issues than it solves.

Questions are already being asked in the press/media/sections of the Democratic party about the legitimacy of her being ‘anointed’ rather than chosen by the party who are free to nominate whoever they want now that Biden has said he’s not running

Surely the answers to these questions everyone knows? The president is in poor health and frail and Harris is the vice president. It is literally in her job description and the nation voted for her to be vice president.

I can’t see a problem. Although presumably Trump and his supporters can

I actually wonder if theres a smart bit of strategy in play here.

Regardless of how Trump and Biden have been poling against other, theres also polling that shows sizeable numbers of voters on both sides of the equation haven’t really wanted either candidate, with both their ages being a factor. The biggest threat to both party isn’t the opposition but the risk of their own voters not turning out to vote.

I doubt it was Biden’s hope or plan not to run again, but the timing of the announcement is perhaps very good. Both Trump and Biden have been presumptive candidates up until now- winners of the primaries – but it’s only as of the last few days the Trumps candidacy has been set in stone. He is the republican candidate, Biden was still the presumptive candidate and the Democratic convention is a while off.

Whoever they do choose, just by not being one of the same old faces, solves that broader poling issue for the Democrats but comes too late for the republicans to change tack.

Half glass full. Like it. And it’s very plausible! 

Going to go out on a limb here: there’s no chance Biden will beat Trump in November now.

Probably not….

The only person I can see taking on Trump in a debate is a good, surreal standup comedian. I think Ross Noble or Noel Fielding could take him. A sensible lawyer type has no chance. They deal in facts and logic. Two things that don’t exist in Trumpville.

Stewart Lee’s piece in The Guardian made me chuckle. Basically it is all Macauley Culkin’s fault.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/21/which-home-alone-child-star-should-everyone-blame-if-trump-is-re-elected

Trumps candidacy has been set in stone. He is the republican candidate

This. And he’s a shitbag that they can’t get rid of

Now his nemesis, the other old codger, has dropped out, he kind of looks a bit pointless. Would the GOP have gone for Trump if they’d known he was up against Harris, or anyone else for that matter? I don’t know, but it does feel like he’s the wrong tool for the job now.

Joe Biden’s second term was set in 2022 when the “red wave” didn’t materialise during the mid-term elections and he was “unbeatable”. In 2022 exit polls suggested that voters were far more concerned about the economy (31%) and abortion (27%) than they were about gun control and migration, which was where Donald Trump focussed.

The economy reached a high in late 2023/early 2024 but has since showed signs of cooling towards the November election. Unemployment will be a biggie for obvious reasons (4.1% and rising), but Trump didn’t have a good record during his presidency, “The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%.” https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/

In 2022 Trump talked up the wrong things. In 2024 he managed to stick to the script for about half an hour before he went off one at the RNC. Voting against Trump because he’s Trump is a big motivator for Dems, almost 67% of the total electorate turned out in 2020, the highest since 1992

Being the incumbent, in and of itself, isn’t a positive as many former presidents will tell you. It’s all to play for and the important thing is not to rush to appoint a candidate

I also got the feeling the Dems (and possibly Biden) were waiting for Trump to be set in as the GOP nominee before he stepped down.

Although, that would require a belief that the GOP would actually nominate someone other than Trump. And I don’t think that would have been an option. So maybe I’m guilty of retrospectively agreeing with the narrative.

Nevertheless, I think Harris is best placed to beat Trump (now! not a year or two ago). She nor nobody else will change the MAGA base, but I think she’ll get a chunk of the needed Dem vote mobilised.

Biden might be getting past it, but I think his political instincts are still sharp enough to see the value of waiting until the Republicans had shot their bolt at the RNC, before announcing he was stepping down. How much it’ll take the wind out of the sails of the Trump campaign remains to be seen, but the world would be a happier place if Trump becomes a two-time loser come November.

Biden is your typical old man who has only given up the keys after he’s rolled the car. He didn’t wait until now to help the Dems or screw the Republicans, it just became significantly more likely that he was going to lose, so he saves some face by dropping out rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump.

rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump

That is absolutely why he’s done it. If he has been convinced that he can’t beat Trump, and that the only chance to stop Trump is for someone else to stand against him… then of course that is the reason to step aside.

“ How much it’ll take the wind out of the sails of the Trump campaign remains to be seen”

On the radio earlier, the USA correspondent was saying Trumps lot are raging, as all their plans were to attack Bidens age and mental capacity. That was their campaign, nothing about what they were going to do, just saying ‘dont vote for dozy Joe’ was their strategy.
Also, they dont think Trump will do the live debate with Harris, as she’ll be far more lucid than him, especially now that they turn off the mics when it isnt his turn to speak, so he cannot bawl out ‘fake fake’ every time she tells a fact.
Their next target will be anything to do with California, of which Harris has an association. Apparently they see Cali, and especially LA, as the cesspit of the World, and it’ll bring down the rest of the USA if left as it is. Of course, this is all due to the Democrats in charge, who are , literally, devils disciples allowing the sins of LA. The USA is so messed up.

correspondent was saying Trumps lot are raging

Donald Trump says Republicans should be ‘reimbursed for fraud’ for the money spent campaigning against Joe Biden

https://fortune.com/2024/07/22/donald-trump-republicans-reimbursed-fraud-joe-biden-kamala-harris/

lol!

I’m pretty sure that’s not how it works! don’t play the player, play the game, don!

Biden might be getting past it, but I think his political instincts are still sharp enough to see the value of waiting until the Republicans had shot their bolt at the RNC, before announcing he was stepping down

It certainly seems like there was a bit of theatre from Biden, absolutely denying he’d stand down but then the minute he did Harris has a TV ad ready to go…..

Trump still going to be the favourite and the Biden campaign so far have been crap, but it’ll be interesting to see if Trump & the Republicans have a plan to deal with Harris that’s not just racism and sexism

kelvin
Full Member

That is absolutely why he’s done it. If he has been convinced that he can’t beat Trump, and that the only chance to stop Trump is for someone else to stand against him… then of course that is the reason to step aside.

Yep. I think basically he had to be convinced that someone else had a better chance to make what is a pretty big move, and that’s how it should be. If he believed they were doomed regardless (as many people said) then it was his duty to own that and lose. If he believed he was the best chance regardless then of course he’d stay in the running. And in the end I think there’s zero chance he’d have ever stood down if all it left was a total vacuum, that’s just walking away from responsibility.

All the public stuff was so negative, a long list of people saying “stand down” but not presenting answers or alternatives, and very few people really speaking about Harris at that point- I’d dismissed her for that reason, not because she couldn’t be good but because it seemed like the most important voices calling for him to step down, were really obviously not mentioning her. But clearly by the time the announcement was made a route forward was already in place. Whether the party’s fully behind it, who knows. How early they knew, who knows about that either? There’s probably a bestselling book in it for anyone who does.

Since this is now halfway to being the Kamala! Harris! thread, this pic made me think of literally every british police drama ever.

https://preview.redd.it/kamala-harris-in-the-80s-v0-0qlre6f7o4ed1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=9e665931b87f8112c205052a2022d84a045ceb42

Claim to fame time – I vaguely know someone in the Harris camp (been for coffee with  etc) and briefly met Harris’ sister and husband.

they’re a class act. Clearly political / highly intelligent family but have that “make you feel like you’re the only person in the room” star factor (without a hint of BS). Very humble too – no bragging about who they are. Just come across as decent people.

the podcasts I listen to say Kamala is brilliant in the room, but struggles with the TV cameras etc.

let’s hope she can fix that (if she’s on the ticket) because I’m not sure I can stand 4yrs of trump.

I’m enjoying the way the ‘too old for the presidency’ has now backfires so it is now only Trump who is coming across as too old.

Probably the last time we’ll hear that argument from the Republican camp.

TBH I don’t care if they vote in Trump or not, it’s likely not really going to effect anyone outside the US. Trump on the world stage or needing to make decisions about that are probably not going to happen, and he’ll turn inward in a new McCarthyism.

 TBH I don’t care if they vote in Trump or not, it’s likely not really going to effect anyone outside the US. Trump on the world stage or needing to make decisions about that are probably not going to happen, and he’ll turn inward in a new McCarthyism.

Are you serious?

trump is totally transactional and will do a deal with anyone, anywhere if there is a benefit to him; he will pull support from Ukraine – which is outside the US; he will do nothing to stop China from moving against Taiwan. He has no allegiance to NATO. Palestinians in Gaza? A protectionist economy will damage both the US and it’s trading partners. His behaviours will encourage other authoritarian leaders outside the US to adopt more extreme positions.

A second trump presidency will be damaging for democracy on the world stage.

New McCarthyism – yep, that’s highly likely given his comments and those of acolytes about revenge.

TBH I don’t care if they vote in Trump or not, it’s likely not really going to effect anyone outside the US.

What? trump will pull support for Ukraine for a start, I mean wow, just, wow….

Biden is your typical old man who has only given up the keys after he’s rolled the car. He didn’t wait until now to help the Dems or screw the Republicans, it just became significantly more likely that he was going to lose, so he saves some face by dropping out rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump.

I am getting the feeling it was the democrats central office and his inner circle that was the problem, telling him how good he is doing, how great he is etc despite the reality of the situation. I suspect they wanted to have someone to control in the job, which is actually quite worrying about how the party is run.

He didn’t inform them that he was thinking about it, only told them minutes before making the a public announcement, which suggests to me that he had realised not just his personal frailties, but that his team were “playing” him and he needed to exclude them from the decision making process. Then after the announcement his team have been lashing out and trying to play the victim card, while he has taken a much more consolidatory tone.

Yeah, I think there is a bit of that going on in the party… hillary got put forward because it ‘was her turn’, rather than being the best person for the job…

Hopefully they have learned from that, and time will tell.