Biden. Stay or go?

Kackling Harris is going up against Trump?! She doesn’t stand a snowball in hell’s chance. Awful woman. Trump’s a shoe-in.

You’re an amusing little creature Grimep, but I’m glad the forum has an opposing side.

I’d rather watch someone give Trump a shoe-in.

Ah, Harris has her work cut out for her, as others state, not the most popular, but Biden pretty much had to endorse, as she is the VP, depends how quick the democrats either get behind her, or have some infighting to work out who is going to go up against Trump.

Trump is favourite just now, but again, as others state, November is a distance away, Trump is prone to fumbling, he’s had a huge positive wave from a horrific attack, but that’ll be on the wane soon when the campaign kicks off and questions start being asked quickfire.

They could have had Dump on the ropes for his perpetual lies in the TV debates wirh someone sharper to fire back actual facts.

Trump’s lies absolutely do not matter – surely that must be obvious by now. Nothing is gained by trying to counter them by presenting facts. Facts have had absolutely no effect on Trump or his campaigning for the past decade and they’ve never mattered to Trump at any point in his life. Trump’s supporters don’t believe what he’s saying is true, they just have no interest in truth if they are offered something more entertaining instead.

Trump is prone to fumbling

Indeed he is

So far its cost him $88m dollars, 34 criminal convictions and two divorces, and he still can’t keep his pudgy little hands to himself 🙂

According to a very recent opinion poll Trump is slightly more unpopular than Harris

https://www.newsweek.com/how-kamala-harris-approval-rating-compares-donald-trump-1927983

If it comes to it I will be overcome with joy if Trump is beaten by a mixed race African-Indian woman.

Not primarily because of the humiliation it would cause Trump but because of the humiliation it would cause his supporters, who will then have the further humiliation of being ruled by a black woman for at least 4 years

Considering that woman’s reproductive rights are going to be squarely on the ballot this November having a woman (Harris or otherwise) face off with Trump and his rabidly anti-choice VP pick seems somehow right.

Trump looking a strong favorite at the bookies

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-kamala-harris-poll-better-against-donald-trump/

Unfortunately Harris is woefully unpopular and when Trump says she’ll be easier to beat than Biden I suspect he’s right. It may not be fair or nice, but that’s the situation and the overriding priority is to keep Trump out.

Yeah, the dems need to put a fresh face up, and fast.. rightly or wrongly, Harris is tarnished.

As someone else said..paraphrasing, trumps been throwing poop at her for so long it’s not sensible to put her forward.

It’s not right, it’s just how it is with the american electorate, they are not the brightest people.

Why do I keep hearing how unpopular Harris is? According YouGov she is currently one of the most popular Democrat politicians in the United States, slightly more popular than Biden.

According to YouGov Bernie Sanders is the only Democrat politician who could run that is more popular than Harris and with him there is obviously the age issue.

https://today.yougov.com/ratings/politics/popularity/Democrats/all

She’s unpopular according to the Dump trumpeters at (fer) Fox (sake) News. Hmmm…

It’s not right, it’s just how it is with the american electorate, they are not the brightest people

Nice bit of casual racism there

Harris has basically had the (even worse) US equivalent of the smear campaign the right wing press gave Corbyn some years back.

Just like here, some of it stuck unfortunately.

Still, where abortion is likely to be a big dividing like between the parties, Harris being a woman could be a huge advantage to the Dems. She also seems like a pretty decent person all round from what I know of her.

Decent doesn’t necessarily win elections though.

5lab
Nice bit of casual racism there

Generalisation surely, not racism.

That said, if intelligent people do stupid things, like vote for Trump, are they in fact stupid? We can only be judged upon our actions when all’s said and done.

Or you have Musk, definitely pretty clever but also completely mercenary, so I’m not sure how to class him… Others in here might. 😉

She’s unpopular according to the Dump trumpeters at (fer) Fox (sake) News. Hmmm…

Yeah I suspect that is probably the situation. She is disliked by loyal Trump supporters even more than they dislike Biden.

It would be weird if they preferred a smart black woman over a dithering old white geezer.

Generalisation surely, not racism.

Claiming that the US electorate are not the brightest people is obviously bigotry but it can also be racist.

I have heard argued by racists that Americans are not as smart as other people along the lines of because they are a mongrel nation of immigrants, all those Africans and Asians mixing with Europeans has resulted in a nation of stupid people.

Ironically I think that attitude might actually be widespread in Japan, but I don’t know.

What I do know though is that it is obviously bollocks.

She’s unpopular according to the Dump trumpeters at (fer) Fox (sake) News. Hmmm…

Yeah I suspect I’ve myself fallen foul to the relentless smears from the trump party, I’ve no idea what it’s like on the ground, and being in the UK…

Throw enough poo at the wall, and some of it will stick.

Speaking objectivley, they are not our clowns, and not our circus, I just hope the dems can pull it together, for the sake of global stability more than anything else.

Nice bit of casual racism there

Americans are not a race, unless you are talking about mexicans? or old tribes? nice try though.

A retro thing to say but please do not feed the troll. Keep the chatter about the impending US election, the electorate and the various candidates and their hench-people.

A retro thing to say but please do not feed the troll. Keep the chatter about the impending US election, the electorate and the various candidates and their hench-people.

Good point. I shall refrain, and also apologise, and I shall say no more.

Let’s keep this chat on track.

In the end there’s going to be a handful of key states that actually matter, barring real craziness, so til the dust settles a wee bit and analysts take a really good look at that with the possible new candidates (and VP pairings) I don’t feel like I know a damn thing… it just doesn’t matter at all about national polls or how the new candidate polls in DC or Maryland or Idaho or Kentucky, it matters how they do in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, <maybe> Florida? Just maybe a new candidate brings other safer seats into play but it’s not real likely.

And that’s pretty funky, because those critical states don’t always have a lot in common. Like, one poll I saw just now says a Harris/Shapiro ticket would go pretty well in Pennsylvania but absolutely eat shit in Michigan with something mad like an 8% swing to Trump (Biden won there by about 2% IIRC and I’ve seen some polling saying he was still the lead candidate there this time) No idea why but that’s a challenge. What’s the magic pairing that holds steady enough in safer seats but pulls people in across enough swing seats?

Harris’s polling across the nation mostly says she’s marginally less likely to win than Biden, but within the error bars, which is… not great. The main difference there I think is that maybe Harris can shift that better than Biden, who- and it’s easy to forget this- was actually holding steadier in polls than it sounded despite everything, but didn’t show much sign of being able to close the gap either. Polling’s been very sticky up til now.

One thing about Harris is she’s already got the name recognition for being VP, which is a big boost and basically ought to put her in a good initial position compared to other possibles, but which may not last once the campaign gets going, she is likely at least slightly in a bubble. Other candidates don’t have that boost but they also can’t lose it- so positive performances will probably lift them faster. Like, if you had exactly the same polling for Harris and Candidate X it’d probably be fair to assume that X’s would rise more easily if they perform well, while Harris’s would be stickier on the way up.

(that was one of those long posts that you write to help figure out what you think!)

Although she doesn’t explain why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claims there is “a huge amount of the donor class and elites” who  do not want to see Harris be the nominee.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-some-democrats-want-president-biden-and-vp-kamala-off-presidential-ticket

I’m sure she knows what she’s talking about and unfortunately she doesn’t paint a reassuring picture.

And because I don’t follow US politics closely I don’t understand why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t appear to be in the frame herself, I would have thought that she would make a formidable adversary to Trump?

(that was one of those long posts that you write to help figure out what you think!)

Ah, I’ve mentioned something along those lines myself but you are the first other person that I have seen make the same remark. It’s certainly one of the reasons why my posts can waffle endlessly!

And because I don’t follow US politics closely I don’t understand why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t appear to be in the frame herself, I would have thought that she would make a formidable adversary to Trump

Pure conjecture on my part, but it just seems like party infighting, to me. A bit like the conservatives in the UK, they are far more pre-occupied with shoulder-barging each other out of the way, than they are with, I dunno, doing government stuff, which is what they get paid very well to do?

A O-C a relative newcomer, so whilst very good and popular in the press, simply doesnt have the wide base and appeal of others.

Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.

Biden has made a massive put country before pride decision to step down.

I didn’t think that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was that much of a newcomer so I checked and I was shocked to realise that she has only been in office for 5 years, she has certainly made a lot of noise in that time!

She is also according to YouGov the 7th most popular Democrat and the 8th most popular US politician.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Alexandria_Ocasio_Cortez-Public_Figure

Just travelling around Vermont and there are lots of nice houses but there are more run down shacks with Trump 2024 on than I can shake a stick at.

It’s an interesting contrast.

Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.

I think this is where having a younger candidate will count. Trump will lie and BS his way though the debate and his base vote will love it but it wont increase that base vote.

Harris, if she performs well against Trump, will hopefully unite the anti Trump vote and actually increase the base.

If the Dems show her to be a viable Presidential material, and the debates are a great place to do that, they are still in with a chance.

Or you have Musk, definitely pretty clever but also completely mercenary, so I’m not sure how to class him…

A berk.

I think it’s just about giving the people in the center-third a democrat who they feel they can vote for, against Trump.  It looked like Biden until he started dropping the ball a few weeks ago.

Biden was perfect for this the first time around because he was just an old white man, with loads of experience, about whom nobody really had any strong opinions – and that allowed people to vote against trump.  If they had stood-up Bernie Sanders or AOC, you would have seen the “Corbyn effect”, with people in the center third scared-away.

Gavin Newsom is too easy a target because of the nations perception of what’s going on in California, Buttigieg would be excellent (I think) but for obvious reasons I think is a non-starter.  Harris is interesting, because (as far as I can tell) she hasn’t really said or done anything of any great significance….. but yet people seem to have strong feelings about her (I wonder why that is).

Personally, I think they should stand-up that Astronaut chap NickC mentioned in the pervious page – it’s only really his firearms activism thats going to cause a problem in some states – but viewed as massively positive in others.  Mostly though – he’s a moderate republican’s wet-dream.

A berk.

A bloody rich berk. He’s putting more money into Trump’s campaign than all the donations to all the parties in the UK for their ‘24 campaigns… combined.

A brief reminder that Musk ‘Came out’ as a Republican just before a story broke about him sexually assaulting an employee.

He knew that the accusations would lose him many of his progressive fans so he decided to get some new ones  ideally ones who have long shown they don’t care much what women have to say.

Same approach as recent RNC attendee Russel Brand but sadly with a lot more cash.

He just wants people to kiss his arse basically.

Just travelling around Vermont and there are lots of nice houses but there are more run down shacks with Trump 2024 on than I can shake a stick at.

I think that is because Trump actually voices how bad their lives are while the democrats don’t. Of course there is nothing that Trump will do to help them, and they will get a few more crumbs in a democratic term,  but the fact that Trump recognises their existence with rhetoric while they are ignored by the dems is enough to give the (false) hope.

It is basically the same psychology that brought us brexit, ukip/reform and Borris as PM (so it isn’t just Americans) it is whole communities being ignored by neoliberal centrists allowing breeding grounds for lies, false hope and political radicalisation.

The madness of the US system (see @Northwinds post) mean that despite winning the majority of votes the last woman the Democrats put up against Trump didn’t win either. Dunno if it’ll be better this time around TBH.

Also: Given that the supreme court essentially just said presidents are immune, Biden’s not going to be reelected (and let’s face it, is probs going to kick the bucket sooner rather than later) I wonder what sort of shit that can pull between now and January.

It is basically the same psychology that brought us brexit

Pointing out the problems isn’t the difference, that’s common to most political movements and actors, it’s the blame angle… blame the woke, blame the immigrant, blame the climate “nut”… and offer simplistic solutions… ban roll back legal changes to stop people from living their lives, build a wall, drill, drill, drill.

Trump’s supporters don’t believe what he’s saying is true, they just have no interest in truth if they are offered something more entertaining instead.

I think that we have to consider how many are Trump supporters who will vote for him come what may and how many are Republicans who want to: retain rights to abortion, keep FDA approval of chemical abortion drugs, retain the balance of power rather than increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government, refuse to place the FBI under a politically accountable leader, maintain taxes on corporations and the wealthy (I wonder who that’ll benefit), etc, etc. https://joebiden.com/project2025/

Looking forward to the first debate between Trump and Harris. If it happens she will wipe the floor with him. That will have an effect on opinion.

The second ABC TV debate isn’t until September, she might not be nominee

it’s just how it is with the american electorate, they are not the brightest people.

Things that have been very popular in the UK in the last decade: Boris Johnson, Brexit, Mrs Brown’s Boys.

AOC isn’t really the correct choice this time around, they already have the left leaning Democrats in the bag but the only chance they have of beating Trump is the middle and she’s likely too divisive to win enough of them around. Of course it defies any logic that someone advocating for social programs and providing support to people that need it (rather than tax breaks for millionaires and corporations) is considered a radical lefty who will somehow hurt the average American but that’s where US politics is these days.

Assuming free and fair elections survive another Trump presidency I hope she runs next time and that the Democrats at least control one of the Congressional bodies during Trump’s term.

Woke up this morning feeling a lot more positive than about the world than I have in morning. No tories in the UK, the far right failed to do what they threatened to do in France and there is just a sliver of a chance that Trump is not going to get back into the White House.

As a democrat or sane, educated American I would be frustrated this morning. Biden should have done what he did literally years ago – arguably before the last election. Harris is either going to get the domination and look effectively anointed by the grandees – a bad look. Or it’s going to be rats in a sack less than a hundred days before the election. And that is Biden’s fault.

“It’s not right, it’s just how it is with the american electorate, they are not the brightest people”

“ Nice bit of casual racism there “

For gods sakes, there is no racism there, he/she was pointing out that there are some right thick idiots in the USA.
Can we stop this stupid obsession in trying to find racism in the most innocent of posts? Its pathetic.

Remember around 20 years ago, the guardian reported “XXXX, a Black Cab Driver was sentenced..” brought about a complaint from a person saying it was racist by saying the persons skin colour. The Guardian countered that the word black described the colour of the cab.
Lighten up (is that racist in your world? no, it’s lighten your mood), stop seeing rascism where there isnt any.

Harris got about $50m in campaign donations yesterday after Biden announced his withdrawal. In context, the Biden-Harris fund, that I believe she will now control was about $95m, and the surge is in Democrats that would not donate while Biden was the option.

IDK how much is large backers where a donation is an investment in future access to the WH or whatever, and so was being withheld because – well, why spend money on something you won’t get. But one report said about 50/50, with half coming in donations from the public. Is that an indication of a newly motivated soft democrat vote? Again IDK how often the US runs opinion polls, but be interested to see movement in them now.