After Orange who’s next ?

Canyon?

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/price-slashing-pushes-canyon-into-the-red

Surly, Salsa and All City are all brands of QBP. Surly can appear to be a bit niche because the other brands take up the slack.

well…

Quality Bicycle Products (QBP), the USA business that is the parent company of All-City Cycles, has announced the brand is coming to an end, “with no new product development beyond model year 2024.16 Aug 2023

I think we’re going to see the proper niche builders diversify if they’re going to survive. I know Burf of BTR has been doing a lot of work for other makers and putting his CNC machine to work and Curtis seem to be spitting out a lot more race BMX frames these days.

But as said, use it or lose it. I’d rather spend the money and support the little man than support vulture capitalist fire sales. I appreciate I’m in a fortunate position and not everyone has that luxury but these sales are putting pressure on the smaller makers who can’t afford to slash prices to match.

Yeah, All City never quite seemed to be a good match to the other brands, at least not from a UK bike shop pov. 

Custom builds are  a niche product and I’m not sure there’s that much appetite for them off road.

When I said small volume builders i didn’t really mean the custom shops – I meant (and not to suggest in trouble or anything) the likes of maybe Singular. Building to a spec, so not custom but not committed particularly to volumes until there’s enough demand, and deposits and orders taken to justify pressing the button on having a batch made and painted, etc.

Rumblings on the roadie sites that Campag might disappear… that would be huge news, but as with Orange, should we be that surprised, when was the last time you’ve seen a new bike with a Campy groupset?

Allow me some conspiracy theory thinking .. carbon fibre is marketed hard by big brands because it’s big-brand tech.

How does that line up against brands like Commencal?

I want to know where all these half price bikes are hiding. I can’t find any that I would be interested in actually buying

Anyone be surprised if Commencal is next?

Niche players are always going to have a niche customer pool and when discretionary spending evaporates they are going to be impacted much more than a mainstream company.

Perception with most consumers is carbon is best through some great marketing and highlighting its use in aerospace and automotive. Aluminium is for coke cans. Doesn’t matter about the actual reality.

The talk of specifics and niches makes sense on this thread to me. 

The amount of companies out there offering 170mm bikes, 160mm bikes, 140mm bikes and 120mm bikes is mad.

Surely from a financial point of view it would be better to offer a less wide range of bikes? But then on the other end of things I know that people would argue to the teeth how much of a massive difference 10mm of travel makes. 

Heck back in the day I had a specialized pitch with those Pike U-Turn forks that meant they were wound down to 120mm on the climbs and wound up to 140mm on the downs.

I dunno, not sure what the answer is but being spoilt for choice and prices is definitely a big issue at the moment, combined with the current economy in the UK it’s no surprise if more continue to go the same way as Orange 

I would be surprised if it’s commencal. They are still making lots of discretionary spending sponsoring resorts for both ski and bike

I’m pretty sure aluminium has been making a comeback in mid range mountain bikes. More bang for your buck.
Like Orange Nicolai has high end aluminium bikes, away from XC racers there is definitely a market.
I’m not going to put a ghoulish prediction on who’s next to go but I do think there will be some significant trimming of ranges for the 2025 model year. Santa Cruz has a crazy amount of very similar bikes.

On a related note if it comes to light which brands are dumping there unsold frames in to landfill to preserve their pricing I’d like to think that consumers would boycott them. Not likely though.

I did hear from someone in the industry that, at scale, carbon is actually cheaper to produce than aluminium.

Not sure how true that is though?

Agree about complexity of ranges, I also suspect the days of people N+1ing are going to be a thing of the past. Very few people need an enduro bike and a short travel trail bike, where a mid travel bike will function just as well for them.

Evil would be my bet – they seem to be having a lot of big discount sales.

While I’m a big fan of small brands (I ride an Evil, before that a couple of Transitions) it does strike me that there are a LOT of bike brands. Way more than there are car brands and motorbike brands. The annual income of the motorbike industry is similar to cycling and there are nowhere near as many niche brands fighting for what must be a pretty paltry number of sales. Maybe this will be a period of correction, which as a socialist I’m sad about – the big money makers win.

Sad to read this. Had no idea they had gone under. Always fancied an Orange, particularly the Stage Evo, but sadly out of my price range. Hope those affected find work quickly.

Is some of this due to convergence and less variation of bike tech? I.e. reaching “peak bike”. There’s not so much to keep people buying new bikes?

Just mulling over the pattern of how these things seem to play out, the racing team seems to take the hit first, then the bikes are discounted.  It must be awful having to make these decisions if it is necessary to stay afloat.
But, someone like Santa Cruz, a proper high end boutique brand that is the polar opposite of Orange, has let a high profile rider go from the race team, they were selling those 5010 at 40% off and Stif, the linked shop to Jungle the importer has sort of closed the Summerbridge store.  It seemed improbable that CRC/Wiggle would get into trouble but they have.  Surely a lot of the difficulties now must be down to the crazy cycling boom time during Covid now manifesting as an exceptional peak, but imposed lead times and stock carrying isn’t that flexible to react.

Jungle/stif always have big discounts at the end of a model year though.

And the Minnaar thing seems to be more about politics internally than cost saving.

Stif, the linked shop to Jungle the importer has sort of closed the Summerbridge store.

….and so goes another of my Orange based nostalgia trips. The original owner of Stif and the original owners of Orange were mates from their windsurfing days iirc? Stif was basically the premium Orange dealer bitd with them building bikes for MBUK and running their own Orange based race team. Spent many a happy hour in the early 90’s looking at exotica in the original Headingley shed and then the shop down the road. They seemed to drop Orange around the time Santa Cruz took over although I’m not sure that’s the only reason and by then SC was the main shop brand (in Summerbridge).

Didn’t their email say they were looking for another northern premises? Be interesting to see if that happens.

They seemed to drop Orange around the time Santa Cruz took over although I’m not sure that’s the only reason and by then SC was the main shop brand (in Summerbridge).

Heard a rumour Orange had done a ‘mystery shopper’ type thing and the sales person they dealt with was bending over backwards to convince them they wanted a Santa Cruz instead.

Surly, Salsa and All City are all brands of QBP. Surly can appear to be a bit niche because the other brands take up the slack. 

All City are ceasing trading later this year, already announced.

Just so you know I 100% guarantee a Chinese carbon full sus frame costs less than fabricating an aluminium one in the U.K.

bear in mind I’ve been in several of the big carbon subcontractors in Xiamen China…

oh and moulds don’t cost £75k  nearer £10-15k for a full sus. I got a carbon road frame and fork for $200 which the European brand sells for £2000 retail at the time🤣

Neil Superstar components

I wonder if the decision to fit Shimano motors to their E-bikes was a major mistake!?

If the motors were mounted on standard fittings and therefore you could interchange different manufacture motors, this would help everyone.

Probably too sensible and at least a decade away.

As long as it’s not pole as I’ve ordered a voima for delivery next month.

Based on this I’m not adverse to buying expensive ugly looking alloy bikes. But I would never buy a bike with a Shimano motor.

Nor a bike without a motor thinking about it.

Santa Cruz has for nearly 10years been owned by Pon.

they do bike stuff (Gazelle proper Dutch bikes!, etc), but lots more besides

https://pon.com/en/

It’s not surprising the more boutique brands are at risk, prices have got to piss taking levels and the majority of peoples disposable income has taken a massive dive,

Surely a lot of the difficulties now must be down to the crazy cycling boom time during Covid now manifesting as an exceptional peak, but imposed lead times and stock carrying isn’t that flexible to react.

I know it’s a crazy idea, but didn’t anyone in the bike industry – Shimano excepted – at least wonder if, you know, maybe the whole covid lockdown thing was a one-off scenario rather than the dawn of a new era when we would all be paid by the government to stay at home, with nothing much to do with our money except spend it on sports/leisure goods to stop us dying of boredom during our endless spare time?

I get that the smaller brands are being dragged down by the industry as a whole and I don’t want anyone to go bust, people to lose their jobs etc, but this is proper capitalism will eat itself stuff. And yes, I know this is an overly-simplified take on the whole thing and I am not an economist, but honestly, did people in the industry genuinely think it was a sustainable situation?

And re local bike shops. A mate of mine runs one, a really good one, his take: ‘Shop has been good, but selling bikes at 20 to 40% discount isn’t sustainable.’ I worry for him and similar shops and the really good brands who look likely to be collateral damage in this whole horror show.

Or is the capitalist drive for sustained growth so extraordinarily strong that it was all inevitable?

I wonder if the decision to fit Shimano motors to their E-bikes was a major mistake!?

I suspect it was more to do with charging £8200 for this

oh and moulds don’t cost £75k

Not generally no and bear in mind 1, it’s been some years since I was looking into it in any detail and 2 I might be fudging numbers upward a bit or using £ where it’s $ if repeating them in public.. but if you did a full size run of road framesets and were a small brand at a new factory they’d cost a lot more than some other brands will be paying. Point is, the cost of entry and innovation in carbon is high, can be prohibitively so for smaller brands.

“I know it’s a crazy idea, but didn’t anyone in the bike industry – Shimano excepted – at least wonder if, you know, maybe the whole covid lockdown thing was a one-off scenario”

I’ve heard from other sources that smaller brands were having to over-order way in advance on the grounds that the huge component suppliers were claiming there was a high chance they’d get less than they ordered and later than it was due to arrive. I know if my major suppliers did that to my business and we then had a big downturn in demand we’d rapidly find ourself in a horrible cash position.

How does that line up against brands like Commencal?

When everyone zigs, you zag? Exceptions and rules, alternative brand profiles, that kind of thing?

It’s less pronounced in MTB but try making a go of a road brand or category without a carbon bike.

I’ve heard from other sources that smaller brands were having to over-order way in advance on the grounds that the huge component suppliers were claiming there was a high chance they’d get less than they ordered and later than it was due to arrive. 

Yep, same. A mate connected with a smaller UK brand found himself in a position where they couldn’t get full builds out of the door at one point,  because they couldn’t source brake caliper adaptors and the big brands had apparently ordered up pretty much all the components in the world for the next x billion years. It seemed nuts at the time. it also seemed a manifestly unrealistic market strategy. 

I’ve heard from other sources that smaller brands were having to over-order way in advance on the grounds that the huge component suppliers were claiming there was a high chance they’d get less than they ordered and later than it was due to arrive

This was it – more a case of getting in queues and placing a large order to grab a slice, than thinking COVID demand was the new normal. That said it wasn’t predictable how long it would or wouldn’t last, it’s natural to hope it would bring a new wave of interest and new riders, and the other factors creating economic downturn weren’t foreseen.
There were a fair few in the industry saying that the boom would rebound as a lull before it resettled though.

Are other leisure-type industries which boomed during covid times going through a similar scenario or is it peculiar to the cycle area? I’m just trying to get my head around it. 

I did hear the kayaking industry was suffering a bit. But I think for cycling it was the combination of leisure and transport doubling up the issue.

Heard a rumour Orange had done a ‘mystery shopper’ type thing and the sales person they dealt with was bending over backwards to convince them they wanted a Santa Cruz instead.

Or more likely that it was being run by arrogant tossers who knew better than anyone else. That stopped me going to the Headingley shop.

Its interesting to see that at the moment you can get some Santa Cruz with big discounts. That used to be unheard of.

Campagnolo

They’ve always been the niche option next to Shimano, then the niche-niche option next to Shimano or SRAM. This year there are no World Tour teams using them. Which sounds like trouble and someone’s cut the marketing budget in desperation.

Are other leisure-type industries which boomed during covid times going through a similar scenario or is it peculiar to the cycle area? I’m just trying to get my head around it.

Paddleboards.

They had a bit of a boom 2018-2019 then like bikes they were one of the few things you could go out and do during lockdown / on a UK holiday, and they were (relatively) cheap. Then all of a sudden anything paddleboard shaped was £400. Then just as suddenly Lidl couldn’t sell their halfway decent Mistral boards for months even at a discount.

Pre Covid we already had Shimano component shortages due to their big factory fire and then the construction of the new/replacement factory was delayed due to Covid restrictions.

I think there were lots of little issues too that add up to larger issues, at the start of COVID 11 speed was the norm on a road bike really, many brands over ordered as above, whilst now everyone buying a new road bike wants 12 (or even 13 speed) meaning brands have been sat on boxes of 11 speed components and the like…

Despite the protestations this has more to do with the post covid recession/ inflation than Brexit.  It has been affecting the industry globally – hence the cut price fire sale on so many e-bikes.  E-bikes are now the casual market – nobody will buy mid priced manuals.