After Orange who’s next ?

It saddens me to say I wouldn’t be surprised if Kona didn’t go the same way 😔 The recent BOGOF on the Process ? Unheard of , nothing new in the pipeline since Dan and Jake stepped back . Glory days long since gone unfortunately 😔

conservative government hopefully.

Anyone who doesn’t offer an ebike in their range.

Or offers an ebike with a Shimano motor.

Is it the start of a larger scale downturn?  Orange survived the 2008 financial crises.  I guess energy prices have hit them?

Is it the start of a larger scale downturn? Orange survived the 2008 financial crises. I guess energy prices have hit them?

My bet it’s giant will be the major bike brand that destroy stock to protect current models (as predicted in the stw staff predictions).

Well don’t forget the ongoing CRC/Wiggle situation which could see the downfall of Nukeproof, Ragley and Vitus…….

Giant? The name isn’t ironic, they literally make other folks bikes around their own.

It’s going to be another low volume homegrown unfortunately. Not going to place bets as it’s neither helpful nor particularly tasteful given its people’s livelihoods we’re talking about.

Could be any of them I reckon. See what Si had to say on the thread discussing the new Cotic Solaris and the need to hike the price. Do you put up prices and risk not selling enough or sell cheaper and risk making no money? Seems Orange went with the first option.

Intense

With no transparency about true financial status, it’s impossible to even guess – let alone know.
Companies House filings provide a snapshot which is anything between 12 and 24 montgs out of date.
Management accounts will provide a clear(er) view – but they’re rarely, if ever, made available.

A pretty sad state of affairs all round. Tories and brexit fully to blame for this. Bastards.

hopefully other brands will see what is going on a reduce their prices.

hopefully other brands will see what is going on a reduce their prices.

Why? Fixed costs have risen, they still need to make money.

hopefully other brands will see what is going on a reduce their prices

Cheaper than buy one get on free a la Kona?
There’s some huge discounting going on even outside of crc/wiggle

Intense

Haven’t noticed one in the wild since I sold mine in 2020

By the time CRC/W have sold everything I’d be surprised if there’s anyone left.

Not going to place bets as it’s neither helpful nor particularly tasteful given its people’s livelihoods we’re talking about.

Ditto

I think it’ll be someone massive.  A brand that has totally re-done their production facilities based on the growth during covid and is now staring down the barrels of financial over commitment and a huge industry downturn. 

Is it feasible that the number of different models of  bike to cover all the niches is part of the problem.

When I look at one of the big manufacturers the number of  models at various price points is huge.

What worries me more is that choice of real bike shops in narrowing.

Missed the memo. Orange have gone under??? Damn.

Always liked them but never owned – little bit on the pricey side for me but was the first full suss I ever rode at Cannock – hired a Five Pro from the bike shop there and loved every minute on it.

On the flip side during a visit last year I was surprised how small the Enigma factory was, it seems to be a workshop, reception, office and canteen with about 8 employees.    I think these kids of places with smaller outlay and strong order books with desireable product will be OK.

So that means less stock with similar pricing albeit lower margins.   I think it’s the warehousing of mass high margin 2020 stock that’s the issue – imagine ordering 5000 Orange frames at £2k each pre pandemic thats are in a warehouse and can’t be sold at half that price – it’s eating away at a companies finances rapidly.  And of course, companies like Orange will find it much harder to write off discounted bikes than a large corporate such as Giant as they won’t have the outlets, depth of pocket or financial backing, especially in a cost of living crises.

Not going to speculate on specifics of who, but I’d have thought the genuine small frame builder types are relatively safe; no premises or real commitments beyond a website and can hunker down to organising a batch by preorder and payment or deposits upfront. IDK if the massive brands are safe, how easy it is to close or mothball capacity etc. It’s the in betweens I’d worry about – like Orange – expectations to buy from a shop and maybe wait a few days for stock to come in or whatever but essentially already made and committed and thus a liability if the orders don’t arrive.

After Orange whos next? – no one hopefully.

I have an ageing Trek. It desperately needs lots of work and is currently unrideable, but dont even have the casj to fix it up, let alone buy a stunning new bike. If you are fortunate enough to be considering a new bike, have a good look at UK based firms; we will mias them when theyre gone.

Hardly suprising its only UK based firms are going into administration -**** brexit and all who sail in her

On the flip side, does this mean we might see a resurgence in the local custom frame builder? 

As mentioned above regarding Enigma, will it be those with low overheads and long lead times who can sell more than they make who may benefit from this?

The pandemic and poor business decisions may have had some influence on this but the fact that it’s predominantly the UK breaking under the strain rather than “just* suffering does suggest Brexit and Tories have really been the straw that broke the camels back.

It isn’t just UK-based firms though…it is rife throughout the whole industry. It is a shame – really bad for those directly impacted, but we have had the pandemic where bike companies couldn’t sell things quickly enough, the global supply issue and the cost of living crisis all landing at the same(ish) time.
Biking is growing more niche and companies need to keep expanding their line to cater for all these niches, but that also pushes pricing up. Components aren’t cheap and that pushes prices up…it is a perfect storm in a lot of cases. I grudge the price of bike bits now (and I’ll happily admit I’m a bike snob as I don’t want a perfectly functioning Deore level bit of kit on my bike – so higher end costs a lot.more, but I still grudge it – and yet loads of people are riding about on fancy bikes (plenty more aren’t, but the pricing doesn’t seem to put that many people off). This probably encouraged a lot of companies to push a bit further and now the expansion is a large contraction, it is catching a lot of companies out.

Cheaper than buy one get on free a la Kona?

BOGOF equals 50% off RRP, or less discount if the cheapest item is free. Plenty of brands have been at 50% or more off RRP over the last year.

I’d have thought the genuine small frame builder types are relatively safe;

Demand has dropped overall, people are spending less and it’s harder to justify a £2k custom Vs the discounts available on mass-produced bikes. The whole industry is devalued at the moment. Framebuilders don’t make a lot generally, it’s a labour of love and pays the bills hopefully, so though hopefully they can adapt and limit costs, it’ll be a tough time for them too.

I think these kids of places with smaller outlay and strong order books with desireable product will be OK.

That’s the thing.. the order books won’t be anywhere near the post 2012 and Rapha boom era orders. I’d hope they’re sustainable but you need to sell a lot of frames to pay the wages of 8 people.

Is it feasible that the number of different models of  bike to cover all the niches is part of the problem.

Bingo. There’s way too much complexity, it’s a post-mature market and then a mix of Covid and effects of late stage Tories come along to test even the best business models or processes.

imo riding is inherently simple yet bike ranges are often too complex, the old get-used-to-one-thing-then-offer-change or the split-the-differences ways to create a ‘new category’ isn’t creating choice it’s just adding confusion and stock complexity. Few customers inc myself buy for logical matches of actual use to intended product product use. From the bigger brands we tend get bikes marketed on narrow and specific range of strengths or the tired old direct translations of race format to production bike category. That was starting to change with the gravel bike influence or DC MTBs but still, we have MTB types categorised by 10-20mm of travel difference .. it can seem daft. But it’s a fast-moving technical fashion market with a lot of marketing noise so it’s inevitable.

In a few year’s time we may have less choice simply because the bigger companies who do survive this consolidate a grip on the market.

Hardly suprising its only UK based firms are going into administration -**** brexit and all who sail in her

While I fully agree with this sentiment .. not only UK firms, producers in Asia are going bust too. There’s huge volumes of bikes that have been produced but not shipped or paid for. And though brexit and the Tory effect is making it harder to cope with here, other factors creating this bust time are the same in EU.

My bet it’s giant will be the major bike brand that destroy stock to protect current models (as predicted in the stw staff predictions).

Despite thinking we are at the for front of cycling in the uk, our collective opinion that no one will ever buy a Giant again because of the warranty, is unfounded. Apparently they are more the number on brand in the uk Strava data

Across the world, the most popular bike brands among Strava users were Trek, Specialized and Giant.

In the UK, Giant jumped from third to first, followed by Trek in second and Specialized in third.

Source

https://www.bikeradar.com/news/2023-strava-year-in-sport-report

@jameso

You make some good points.

I started mountain biking in the late 80s and you just bought a nice looking bike in your price range.

I’m in the market for a new bike but suffering analysis paralysis because I can’t decide between 130/140 or 145/160 faux bar in light weight carbon 29er, or save some cash and go burly 161/160 alu mixed wheel size bike.

What worries me more is that choice of real bike shops in narrowing.

This 100% I know this thread is about companies but your LBS is teetering on the edge too. That’s EVERY local bike shop. Nov-March is traditionally their quietest time too, add the current crisis to that and when riders drag their bike out of the shed in spring and it needs some tuning or fixing your local bike shop might not be there.

We need to support these shops. I know most of the time stuff is cheaper on the internet but there are some big bargains in local shops too. I know my local shop has bikes and ebikes with 2k+ off

But even if you don’t buy a bike or even use them for serving then mention them to your buddies or on your social media to get more awareness for them. We’ll miss them when they are gone

but I’d have thought the genuine small frame builder types are relatively safe; no premises or real commitments beyond a website and can hunker down to organising a batch by preorder and payment or deposits upfront. 

Not sure I share your optimism there. Custom builds are  a niche product and I’m not sure there’s that much appetite for them off road. We have three handmade, custom made British road bikes ( a fourth belonging to the SiL in our shed and a handmade Italian steel road bike in the garden under a tarp) but have never considered custom build for mtb or cx, there seems little point, little choice and a big cost hike to go down that route.

On my road club forum in the new bike thread it’s almost exclusively main brand bikes, custom builds are becoming scarcer and scarcer despite all the blurb about the new generation of British frame builders; carbon fibre killed the custom builder (Athertons excepted)

Not read the bikeradar thing but if that has just done a trawl of profiles to see what is logged against bike brand name then it probably isn’t too accurate as that will only factor in the ones people have filled in, plenty folk don’t.

Biking is growing more niche and companies need to keep expanding their line to cater for all these niches, but that also pushes pricing up.

On the flip side of that, do you/we think that companies that offer a more limited range of ‘do-it-all’ bikes are safer?

e.g. Surly (not that I think they’re in trouble, but they only do steel, rigid/hardtail bikes, with a limited no of models)

Potentially a safer business model than producing bikes to fill every available niche.

Gutted!

Spent a lifetime riding Orange bikes, loved them all! Current love affair with my Alpine 6 shows no sign of ending.

I’m also a fan of Whyte. I don’t hold out much hope……

Surly have a smaller market to sell to (in my uneducated opinion), but also far fewer things to offer and cater for…it sounds like it should be better off, but I bet everyone is suffering.

carbon fibre killed the custom builder (Athertons excepted)

Allow me some conspiracy theory thinking .. carbon fibre is marketed hard by big brands because it’s big-brand tech. The perceived desirability of carbon helps devalue smaller brand offerings.

It’s for pro level racing and that’s a big-brand expense. Small, creative, innovative brands don’t pay £50-70k for tooling for one bike either. And we don’t need to save just 1kg on a frame to make any difference to our ride. Same goes for Al MTBs (Orange) and steel or Al for road bikes.

Surly, Salsa and All City are all brands of QBP. Surly can appear to be a bit niche because the other brands take up the slack. 

On the flip side of that, do you/we think that companies that offer a more limited range of ‘do-it-all’ bikes are safer?

e.g. Surly (not that I think they’re in trouble, but they only do steel, rigid/hardtail bikes, with a limited no of models)

The model/use overlap of the QBP ranges is crazy though. They create or chase every niche going, divide each niche into sub-niches… I’d expect more than half the range is slow-moving, their approach looks like a spread bet investment on a market. It works for them because the US market is huge and they dominate it, and oc they’re good at what they do.

All of the medium sized brands are vulnerable, to compete with the big boys they need a wide range, but that adds huge cost- kona definitely seems to be on the rocks.
im sure the names will survive , i just hope Mike Ashley doesn’t come in & buy the big O !