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Just had a look at their statement.. I agree with what they said but the problem is they are really not saying much. Pretty typical.
Not a word on defence, Russia, or our relationship with the EU.
Someone should tell Sir Keir Starmer......support for Labour under him has slumped to half of what it was under Corbyn
Support for Corbyn was so strong that he lost two consecutive elections, including dropping 60 seats to Boris Johnson even after 9 years of Conservative austerity. At least Starmer actually gets to experience how unpopular you can get running this country.
I think that's the cue for posting "but got more votes than xxxxx"
Not that it matters as it was less than the winning party when it actually mattered
Someone should tell Sir Keir Starmer......support for Labour under him has slumped to half of what it was under Corbyn
Support for Corbyn was so strong that he lost two consecutive elections, including dropping 60 seats to Boris Johnson even after 9 years of Conservative austerity. At least Starmer actually gets to experience how unpopular you can get running this country.
So we are back to the denialist's favourite mantra "crises? what crisis?" are we.
Yes support for Corbyn wasn't strong and yet the clown in charge of the Labour Party today has managed to drag Labour's support down to half of what it was under Corbyn, despite having the full support of the PLP. But let's pretend that he hasn't!
In 2029 you will be dreaming of those halcyon days when Labour lost only 60 seats [compared to Corbyn's 2017 personal best]
All the recent general election seat predictions of the last few months predict that Labour will lose somewhere in the region of 230-90 seats at the next general election.
Obviously Sir Keir Starmer will be well out of the picture by then and launching his lucrative post politics career.
I think we can all agree that Corbyn was unpopular. So how shite do have to be to be even more unpopular than him?
In 2029 you will be dreaming of those halcyon days when Labour lost only 60 seats [compared to Corbyn's 2017 personal best]
All the recent general election seat predictions of the last few months predict that Labour will lose somewhere in the region of 230-90 seats at the next general election.
Well, he'd have to lose 207 to even get down to Jeremy's total at the 2019 election. Which was the worst performance by any Labour leader, including Michael Foot, since 1935. Even his 2017 'personal best' was pretty dismal.
The current electoral calculus seat prediction has Reform with an 86 seat majority. If that's true, and I'm pretty sceptical that this has any basis in reality, Labour has bigger problems than dick-measuring with some washed up former leader.
Labour has bigger problems than dick-measuring with some washed up former leader.
You are not kidding. Sir Keir Starmer has made Labour as unpopular with voters as Liz Truss managed to make the Tories.
It took the Tories over 10 years in government to become that unpopular with voters, Sir Keir Starmer has managed to do it in less than 12 months, that's quite an achievement !
So yeah it's fair to say that Labour has quite a big problem on its hands.
I think we can all agree that Corbyn was unpopular.
Sounds just the guy to start and lead* a new party for those of us on the left. Oh, no... the exact opposite... should have retired in 2017... god knows what and why he's doing this now... if it was any other politician everyone would assume ego. As I am here.
[ *and don't give us his "oh no, not me, you'll have to beg me to be leader" bullshit ]
Labour has bigger problems than dick-measuring with some washed up former leader.
And conversely Your Party is going to have to come up with more than "Save Gaza" and "hate Starmer" as a platform. That's especially true if you genuinely believe that Starmer will be gone by Christmas etc.
The Bolsheviks and Mensheviks split over whether the party should be a revolutionary vanguard or a broad-based electoral front. The ANC was riven by disagreement over whether the MK should continue to pursue a terrorist strategy or a more targeted military doctrine after the Amanzimtoti bombing. Your Party has split over a mailing list and who should collect membership fees...
All the recent general election seat predictions of the last few months predict that Labour will lose somewhere in the region of 230-90 seats at the next general election.
That's not a prediction, that's simply saying they have no idea, so they are casting the net wide, lol!
Painfully unfunny
I think we can all agree that Corbyn was unpopular.
Sounds just the guy to start and lead* a new party for those of us on the left. Oh, no... the exact opposite... should have retired in 2017
Those of us on the left?
Jeremy Corbyn is actually quite popular with left-wing voters and he is apparently the most popular UK politician with the under 25s
But he is unpopular with the majority of voters, albeit now more popular than Sir Keir Starmer, which puts the bar very low !
The new left-wing party only needs to attract something in the region of 15-20% of the vote to have a very significant effect on UK politics. If Corbyn's lack of popularity among non left-wing voters makes him unsuitable to lead a left-wing party what does that say about Starmer's suitability to lead Labour especially now that he is even more unpopular with voters than Corbyn??
Personally I think it is probably more likely than not that Corbyn won't stand for co-leader of the new party. Or if he does that he takes a minor role.
That's not a prediction, that's simply saying they have no idea, so they are casting the net wide, lol!
It is very much a prediction with regards to the likely outcome of a general election if it were to be held tomorrow.
The latest MRP poll methodology is remarkably accurate and MRP polls correctly predicted Labour's July 2024 landslide victory.
It is very much a prediction with regards to the likely outcome of a general election if it were to be held tomorrow
Lucky its still 4 years away then by which time it's highly likely Reform will have imploded, Corbyn will be on his 37th come back tour and the Torys might just have started to rehabilitate themselves. Or none of the above, times are turbulent, who knows what will happen. The only thing that is highly unlikely is a left wing party gaining any traction in the foreseeable.
Lucky its still 4 years away then by which time it's highly likely Reform will have imploded
Well if that's what you prefer to believe go for it.
It reminds of the final days of the last Tory government when so many Tory politicians were in denial of the inevitable Tory meltdown, at least in public they were in denial.
They seemed to truly believe that Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and then Rishi Sunak, could somehow avert the inevitable. At least in public they seemed to.
The reality is that it iis highly unlikely that Reform UK will implode within the next 4 years. There is nothing 'turbulent' about the support Reform are currently getting. Leading every single opinion poll since mid-April actually suggests remarkable stability.
If the polls are shifting at all then it is even more in Reform's favour. They are now regularly getting double digit leads in the polls which isn't something that was happening a month ago.
With the far-right rallying more than a hundred thousand of their supporters in the streets of the UK's capital city to suggest that Reform are "highly likely" to implode sounds very much like an act of desperate wishful thinking.
But hey........always look on the bright side of life, eh?
Imploded? Or in power? One thing is for sure, anyone here without UK citizenship should be sorting that out just in case.
There is a damned good chance Reform will either form a coalition government after the next GE or an outright one. It's terrifying.
They might well implode whilst in government but I don't see it happening before then, unfortunately.
With the far-right rallying more than a hundred thousand of their supporters in the streets of the UK's capital city to suggest that Reform are "highly likely" to implode sounds very much like an act of desperate wishful thinking.
It takes more than 100K to win an election. I was at the Easter Poll Tax demo in 1990 - there were 200K there and probably 10% were just dickheads out to cause trouble. Jobby Robinson's jolly probably had a similar number of racist thugs out. I'm not denying that there were thousands who joined in who have genuine grievances about financial hardship and the shitty situation they've been abandoned to (I have family who are in that camp), but the press are bigging it up, just like they do when England are kicking a leather bag around competitively. A parliamentary majority requires 325 MPs. Where are Reform getting all those politicians from? Flakey Tory defectors?
They are already having trouble fielding candidates who haven't been convicted of domestic abuse or various other criminal offences. The talent pool is going to get a lot shallower if they need to put up 600+ general election candidates.
I always thought that Farage would hop into the mouldering corpse of the Tory Party and take it over, but clearly that brand is so tainted now that it's not worth it. So, while it's possible he'll get a surge of Tory 'economic migrant' MPs trying to save their jobs, chances are he'll be drawing up his candidate list from a whole host of oddballs, conspiracy lovers, convicted loons and loud and proud race baiters.
chances are he'll be drawing up his candidate list from a whole host of oddballs, conspiracy lovers, convicted loons and loud and proud race baiters.
I agree with that but the problem is, many would still get elected if enough people just vote Reform without a care as to whom their actual MP would is. I'm in that group as are most people, I vote for the party I want in government and the actual MP I vote for is secondary.
If Reform to form a government I'm sure a lot of their MPs would be mired in scandal but it would be too late by then. In all but the worst, Farage and Reform would just brush the scandals aside as fake news.
They are intent on following MAGA and Trump so we can see to a large degree of accuracy how they will be in government.
I'm guessing that Farage probably feels strong enough at the moment to turn down some Tory defectors for fear of being labeled just a rebadged conservative party .
As for Reform forming the next government the latest Yougov polling might not be as simple as reform being ahead . Farage has 61% of people viewing him as unfavorable so I wouldn't say that he's popular in any meaningful way . And if you look at the latest voting intentions if you add labour, lib Dems , greens and SNP together they are way above reform which I would take to mean that maybe the UK population hasn't already lurched to the right to the extent that the press might have you believe.
For me that's why the whole your party thing feels a bit frustrating , none of the issues they would be campaigning on would be better served by having Farage as prime Minister, I feel that now is the time for a bit of pragmatism and for all people who are in anyway socially forward thinking/left/left of center even right of center, whatever label you want to put on people , to when the time comes vote tactically to stop Farage coming to power .
for all people who are in anyway socially forward thinking/left/left of center even right of center, whatever label you want to put on people , to when the time comes vote tactically to stop Farage coming to power .
100% agree.
Who will be the party to tactically vote for, obviously not Tory, but I'm not exactly keen to vote Labour, a few others might have reservations about that too, but realistically, is that going to be the choice?
That's the point though, you might not be keen on voting labour but if they're the best option to stop Reform winning then you hold your nose and do it , if it's the lib Dems you vote for them , if it's Your party you vote for them . The priority has to be to stop Reform. Our voting system means that unfortunately people will have to vote against Farage rather than the party that they might agree with the most .
but I'm not exactly keen to vote Labour, a few others might have reservations about that too, but is that going to be the choice?
No because if you accept that then you can be ignored.
Its why Starmer and McSweeney keep going with their fruitless hunt of the hard right vote. They assume anyone left of them, aka most people, will vote because its less worse than the alternative. Its important to remember they happily enabled Johnson and his pretty irreversible hard brexit in order to damage the left and so gain power.
No because if you accept that then you can be ignored.
Is that not a better argument for voting reform than it is against tactical voting ?
Tactical voting in an ideal world wouldn't be needed but it's not an ideal world or an ideal system and as the saying goes ...you can only urinate with the winky you've got .
Is that not a better argument for voting reform than it is against tactical voting ?
Depends if you believe Farage will pay any attention to people who vote reform. I would suggest, like Starmer, he wont.
The problem with "tactical voting" is if we look at the last election there is no acknowledgement that helped labour out and instead Starmer is chasing the hard right vote.
We had tactical voting in 2024 but Starmer responded by going hard right and giving legitimacy to Farage. Exactly what do you see the long term result being if Starmer is re-elected?
Depends if you believe Farage will pay any attention to people who vote reform
I don't think the hardcore reform voters necessarily want Farage to pay attention to them . For them , like MAGA in America, the truth is whatever their leaders tell them it is .
We had tactical voting in 2024 but Starmer responded by going hard right and giving legitimacy to Farage. Exactly what do you see the long term result being if Starmer is re-elected?
I don't want to make it about labels but I don't think Starmer has gone hard right . I think he's still trying to appeal to those people who feel like that they've been left behind, people who work but still can't get by . The problem is these people have been convinced that's because of immigration as opposed to all the wealth being horded by the rich and powerful. I think maybe one of Starmers issues is that from day 1 he's been fighting the next election and that's left him with one arm tied behind his back and lets be honest some pretty indefensible own goals as well ( winter heating , child benefits cap )
I'm terms of long term if Starmer is re-elected I don't know , I'd like to say life generally getting a bit easier for normal working people but in all honesty I think those issues are global and I'm not sure what impact the UK government alone can have on these things but I'm pretty sure the answer is not tax cuts for billionaires. The question I'd obviously put back is if not Starmer or possibly whoever is labour leader at the next election then who ? Because unfortunately it looks like the main other contender is Farage and I think a Farage government would do even more damage to the UK than even the last Tory government. Personally I wouldn't be horrified at the idea of some form of coalition government.
We left the UK for New Zealand about 2 years ago but my wife lived in the UK on an indefinite leave to remain visa for 20 years and if we were still there we'd be really worried about the implications of a Farage government on our family and I have a great deal of sympathy for the many families in the UK who are in the same situation we were .
A parliamentary majority requires 325 MPs
Polling from You Gov despite showing that lots of folks think Farage is doing a good job running Reform, consistently think that reform Govt would be V bad. Despite the Eeyore predictions on here, I don't think he'll be able to translate what support they do have into votes enough to form a Govt..
I feel that now is the time for a bit of pragmatism and for all people who are in anyway socially forward thinking/left/left of center
It's called the Labour Party.
Its why Starmer and McSweeney keep going with their fruitless hunt of the hard right vote.
Because a large block of Brexit/Reform voters were once reliable Labour voters. Who stopped voting Labour when Corbyn was Leader.
It is very much a prediction with regards to the likely outcome of a general election if it were to be held tomorrow
...
The only thing that is highly unlikely is a left wing party gaining any traction in the foreseeable.
Almost anything is possible...but that party is not going to be Your Party when they all hate each orher and can't agree on more than high level statements about Gaza.
Despite the Eeyore predictions on here, I don't think he'll be able to translate what support they do have into votes enough to form a Govt..
I don't think there is a single person on here who has claimed that Farage is likely to be able to form a majority government, where did you get that from?
Personally I think that majority governments are very much likely to become something of the past in the UK.
UK politics is undergoing unprecedented change and all the old certainties no longer exist. That change is characterised above all else by the collapse in support for the two main parties of government.
Last year the Tories experienced their worst general election result in two hundred years and in 2029 Labour are extremely likely to experience their worst result in over a hundred years.
The House of Commons has always been dominated by two major political blocks and the absence of that will by definition force the creation of coalition governments.
I would imagine that it is extremely unlikely that Reform UK will be able to form a majority government but what appears increasingly likely is that they will easily be the largest party.
Last year it looked like Reform might be a junior partner in a future Tory-Reform coalition government this year it looks possible that it will be the senior partner and that they will hold the position of Prime Minister.
Down playing and ignoring the threat from the far-right benefits no one but the far-right, that is true today as it was a hundred years ago.
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.
Farage in government is a possible reality that absolutely should not and can not be dismissed, even this far out from an election.
I don’t t think farage ever wants to be pm. He is very happy and making lots of money winding up the country and getting money off people. But when it actually comes to the crunch and he doesn’t have time for 6 jobs. Has to form a government and actually deal with the issues and heaven forbid deliver anything he will be somewhere else
Tend to agree. And while I don't rate many of the current government I can't imagine how ****ing awful any Reform cabinet would be. They also wouldn't actually get much done as it would be blocked at every opportunity.
I also see a lot of people going back to tory once they get their act together. The sort of people I work with, well off and happy with tory approach, dislike Labour and not nutters so not interested in Reform.
I don’t think farage ever wants to be pm.
If Farage did find himself as PM, he'd look exactly like Johnson and Gove did the morning they got their 'victory' they apparently wanted so much.
The horrible realisation that they'd now have to deliver the impossible pie-in-the-sky nonsense they'd been promising everyone
Farage knows full well that all these 'policies' he's shouting about are completely unachievable bollocks. The last thing on earth he wants is to be tasked with the responsibility of actually delivering on these ludicrous promises. He doesn't do delivery. Or detail. Or anything else other than gobbing off. Thats far too much like hard work.
They’re all just grifters
Oh he'll love it. there will be a Trumpesque "fill yer boots" athon while he does 2/10th of **** all except spouting off about how it's everyone else's fault. 4 years of that and he's made.
Can't knock his effectiveness though - as disappointing as it is.
It's called the Labour Party.
Oh, have they changed direction?
If Farage did find himself as PM, he'd look exactly like Johnson and Gove did the morning they got their 'victory' they apparently wanted so much.
The horrible realisation that they'd now have to deliver the impossible pie-in-the-sky nonsense they'd been promising everyone
Farage knows full well that all these 'policies' he's shouting about are completely unachievable bollocks. The last thing on earth he wants is to be tasked with the responsibility of actually delivering on these ludicrous promises. He doesn't do delivery. Or detail. Or anything else other than gobbing off. Thats far too much like hard work.
Thats very likely to be the case. I also wonder if some peeps have looked at 'Project 25' and wondered how similar could work in the UK.
Step 1 - find a popular rabble rouser who can win elections ✅
Step 2 - subvert procedural norms / good chap theory to circumvent the blob ❓
for all people who are in anyway socially forward thinking/left/left of center even right of center, whatever label you want to put on people , to when the time comes vote tactically to stop Farage coming to power .
100% agree.
I voted labour in the last GE to keep the tories out, but now I've got egg on my face.
Don't get me wrong, I'll look at the polls closer to the time and I'll vote to keep reform out.
I just wish I could vote for a party I want, rather than voting against the worst party.
I'm sure we could get a forum whip round going for Ernie to make a real difference out in Palestine. I'll chuck a few quid in for desert fatigues and an AK47. Weekly updates about his skirmishes with the IDF would be a great addition to the forum. Get TJ onboard as some kind of clandestine guerrilla warfare unit.
We'll get some t-shirts printed up with profiles of your faces on the front and a fist on the back.
Uh no
Uh no
Well perhaps it sounded funny at 3.37am in the morning. Although I doubt it.
That's the point though, you might not be keen on voting labour but if they're the best option to stop Reform winning then you hold your nose and do it
I'll vote Labour next time for this reason, but I also have the better justification of a local labour MP who is doing a decent job and has focused his time on representing his constituents rather than playing the political game. Many don't have that justification though, and they'll be voting reform or green depending on their political leanings. To keep any of these voters the very least that needs to happen is replacing Starmer, probably with Burnham, but I doubt it will happen as Starmer and his acolytes will cling on to power with every ounce of energy they have left. I fear we'll have a Farage govt before we get a Burnham one.
Have we done the Onion headline yet?
https://theonion.com/left-wing-group-too-disorganized-for-fbi-agents-to-infi-1848923025/