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Reform are never going to win a GE, there's no appetite in the country for that, despite what the right wing press tells you. Most people are middle of the road, centre right / centre left and vote accordingly. Not to mention the Scots and the big cities hating them.
However there's a real chance that something even worse could happen and that's Reform coming second becoming the opposition. This is perfect for them because they never have to put their racist policies into action but can carp loudly from the sidelines waving their second place mandate like a tatty England flag that they've torn from the barricades of selfish, lying mean-ness that they've been manning for years.
A terrifying, but not unlikely prospect.
However there's a real chance that something even worse could happen and that's Reform coming second becoming the opposition.
I don't know what you base that on, presumably the belief that "most people are middle of the road"?
Who do you think is likely to come first?
Which is the middle of the road party that you believe is likely to come first, the Labour Party? LibDems?That's a genuine question btw because I don't totally understand the thinking behind it.
I can't say how many opinion polls there have been in the last six months, possibly a couple of hundred? but I do know that they have all consistently put Reform UK in the lead.
Now I know that it has been become fashionable to dismiss opinion polls as inaccurate but that simply isn't true, at least not beyond the accepted 2-3% margin of error.
All the opinions polls in 2024 quite correctly predicted a Labour landslide, if not the precise detail of that landslide. If all the opinions polls are currently predicting Reform being the largest party, if not precisely by how much, then that is very much the likely outcome under the present conditions.
Of course you could argue, quite fairly, that the next general election is still almost 4 years away and a lot can change in that time. The problem however is that there is very little evidence of the likelihood of that happening. In fact that reverse is happening and Reform's lead is slowly increasing whilst support for Labour is slowly diminishing.
I suspect that when push comes to shove support for Reform will probably not be quite as large as the polls predict but however that with support for the other half a dozen parties in parliament being so low/ spread out that they will comfortably be the largest party.
A terrifying, but not unlikely prospect.
There is a worse and even more likely scenario… Reform getting the most votes at the GE but only enough seats to be on the opposition benches (as the official opposition and/or the third party)… they then have no direct responsibilities but could claim to have a mandate for whatever hate and overly simple ‘solutions’ they’re pushing by then. Plenty of chances for them (well, him really) to claim the whole UK system is defunct and needs changing (it does), that there should be a snap election, and that all the others parties which are refusing to find some way to put Farage in as PM are traitors to UK democracy. The opportunity to reset/destroy UK institutions and silence descent if they then get into power will make Trump’s current changes look light touch in comparison.
Where does Corbyn’s “not my party” fit into all this? Further fragmentation at the next election? Looks unlikely to be part of the mix UK wide now.
Now I know that it has been become fashionable to dismiss opinion polls as inaccurate but that simply isn't true, at least not beyond the accepted 2-3% margin of error.
All the opinions polls in 2024 quite correctly predicted a Labour landslide, if not the precise detail of that landslide. If all the opinions polls are currently predicting Reform being the largest party, if not precisely by how much, then that is very much the likely outcome under the present conditions.
Apple and oranges. Polls just before an election are far more accurate than polls years out from one. But that point has already been made by others many times.
I can't remember who said it but they predicted Corbyn would switch to calling Zarah "Ms Sultana" as a sign of his disdain for her. Apparently he has switched to not referring to his co-leader at all!
Apparently he has switched to not referring to his co-leader at all!
Sounds like a reasonable tactic if he wants to bury the issue and move on.
But announcing the opening of the membership portal so soon after creating such a fuss simply emphasises how pointless all the fuss he created was in the first place.
Corbyn's constant procrastination and obsession with doing everything at a snail's pace really isn't helpful. Just as well that the new party is attracting in large numbers younger more impatient people with a real sense of urgency.
Hopefully Corbyn will focus more on making speeches at trade union and Palestine solidarity rallies and let them get on with it.
Corbyn's valued contribution to this project is the brand recognition he brings with him, it is likely to be vital to the 15-20% level of core support which it will hopefully achieve. It is somewhat ironic that he is apparently the most popular UK politician among the under 25s.
Jeremy Corbyn is actually quite popular with left-wing voters and he is apparently the most popular UK politician with the under 25s
Pretty sure that any U25 voters, if asked if they’d vote for him would stare blankly and say “who?”
Just as well that the new party is attracting in large numbers younger more impatient people with a real sense of urgency.
I genuinely thought this was irony with a missing 😁 until I scrolled back up and saw who posted.
I'd like to know how old the statistic about Corbyn being the most popular politician with sub 25 year olds. Was the case when he was opposition leader, but that was literally quarter of a lifetime ago for anyone of that age.
It is somewhat ironic that he is apparently the most popular UK politician among the under 25s.
This still doesn't matter (the same way that Farage has lots of support) it doesn't mean it'll translate to anything concrete like an actual vote. You cannot draw a straight line from liking a politician to seats in parliament at a GE for the party they lead. Overall approval rating for Corbyn in the population is pretty much the same as Starmer's (minus 39 and minus 40) and the under 25s consistently have the lowest turn out in GE.
Reform will probably win more seats (If the party hasn't imploded in 4 years time) but polling shows that Reform has almost no trust amongst the population on economics or competency and that offered a choice between any of the Party leaders to be PM, Starmer comes out on top by a wide margin.
[different groups of] Folks like what Corbyn and Farage say, they just don't trust them to run the country.
I genuinely thought this was irony with a missing
until I scrolled back up and saw who posted.
And then you realised that it was probably true?
I'd like to know how old the statistic about Corbyn being the most popular politician with sub 25 year olds.
Well you could probably find out that information yourself but how about two months old?
Pretty sure that any U25 voters, if asked if they’d vote for him would stare blankly and say “who?”
Any under 25 ?
Corbyn has a general recognition score of 98% compared to Starmer's 97%, if you can't find an under 25 who knows who Corbyn is then you are even less likely to find one who knows Starmer is.
I am assuming that you don't support Starmer's commitment to lower the voting age to 16 because you believe that it is a pointless exercise?
This still doesn't matter (the same way that Farage has lots of support) it doesn't mean it'll translate to anything concrete like an actual vote.
It will translate into a concrete vote otherwise people like yourself wouldn't be bothered about a new rival party to the Labour Party.
The difference is that our definition of what constitutes an effective vote is different. You are probably still thinking along the lines of 36-44% of the vote which would be typical for a party with a governing majority.
I am talking about half that amount which is perfectly realistic in the new political environment in which the two major parties no longer completely dominate UK politics.
Apart from just desperately hoping that it hasn't actually happened I am not sure why some people are refusing to accept the new reality. Which is that support for Labour has collapsed, probably to its lowest level in a hundred years, and the most popular party today is Reform UK.
Yes it's scary and depressing for a lot of people but you can't simply wish it away.
So hows this doing then? Concrete vote? really? At the rate they are going I'll be very suprised if they even put up a slate of candidates across most constituencies
I am talking about half that amount which is perfectly realistic in the new political environment in which the two major parties no longer completely dominate UK politics.
Which would bemultiple of the vote any left wing party has ever got in the Uk in any area
The only actual left wing party to gain seats in any of the parliaments is the now defunct scottish socialist party with 7%
still no name, but wants to leave Nato 😂
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/news/2025/10/10/zarah-sultana-leeds/
Apparently they’re going to sort the name by democratic vote at their party conference.
Right after they've concluded reading out the list of 2,964 organisations around the world they’re expressing solidarity with, and the 3 day debate, consultation and vote on what revolutionary biscuits should be chosen to have with their fair trade organic tea
Anyway, in more recent polling, has the number of "Don't knows" changed much? It would be easy to assume that many Labour voters have simply strayed away without expressing a new preference but I'm not sure that's the case. If that number has increased then one might assume a decent few will be tempted to a new left wing party.
Apparently they’re going to sort the name by democratic vote at their party conference.
I look forward to seeing Party McPartyFace on the ballot paper in a few years.
that numberhasincreased then one might assume a decent few will be tempted to a new left wing party.
Apparently they’re going to sort the name by democratic vote at their party conference.
Right after they've concluded reading out the list of 2,964 organisations around the world they’re expressing solidarity with, and the 3 day debate, consultation and vote on what revolutionary biscuits should be chosen to have with their fair trade organic tea
So many opinions on a party which hasn't even been established yet, so many opinions on the Tory Party, so many opinions on Reform UK, and even so many opinions on the Republican party in the United States.
But no opinions at all on the Labour Party which is in government and he's allegedly a member of! 😂
And of course no opinions whatsoever on the poundland Nigel Farage who leads the Labour Party! 🤣🤣🤣
Edit : Btw I reckon you are lucky that Richard Littlejohn doesn't ride a mtb otherwise you would be at a real risk of facing legal action for plagiarism, if he could see how you parrot him in your description of Lefties, especially the right-wing contemptuous stuff about fair trade 😅
leaving NATO probably guarantees some discreet funding from mother russia
☝️ I'm lovin' this very predictable Daily Mail style smearing 😊
The Daily Mail too also ignores Putin's closeness to the likes of Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Benjamin Netanyahu, and other far-right politicians when they want to smear Lefties and insinuate that Putin is probably financing them.
It is surprising just how much centrists have in common with the Daily Mail when it comes to their shared hatred of the Left.
And that will be the Left who long ago warned of the dangers of the British establishment being all chummy with Putin and his oligarchs
It’s not about “Lefties”… it’s about “Tankies”… most people on the left understand the risk of leaving NATO without having an alternative in place first. Few people are talking about The Green Party being helpful to Putin, for example, despite most people regarding them as being on the left. It’s not about left and right, it’s about (still) underestimating Russian territorial ambitions and/or not caring what happens to people all across East and Central Europe. A problem of risk blindness as regards Putin (and whatever follows after him) that many on both the right and the left have.
The worst of our press might overlook this blindness in many of our right wing politicians… don’t assume that all people critical of some left wing politicians share their one sided views. Johnson before he had a change of direction, and Farage even now, have been useful idiots for Putin. That doesn’t mean that some on the left shouldn’t be called out for making him happy as well. It’s no surprise this party looks to be heading that way, is it. Not because it seeks to be a voice for left wing thinkers and voters, but because of who is heading it.
it’s about “Tankies”…
Oh dear 😂
The term tankie refers to communists who were politically close to the Soviet Union. There's been a few developments in the last few decades! The SU no longer exists and Putin isn't a communist, which is why he is so matey with right-wing politician across the globe.
But anyway, are all Irish governments "tankies" because of their opposition to NATO membership?
Tankie is still an in use term (very common in certain circles) and has evolved since the end of the SU, it didn't end with it.
Those on the left that still have a weird blindspot when it comes to the Russia, and ingrained mistrust of European cooperation, despite all that’s changed politically… “Tankies”. Mostly old men like Corbyn. Sultana more atypical.
Those on the left that still have a weird blindspot for Russia
You mean a blind spot like this?
The people with blind spots are those who trot out Daily Mail drivel about the Left and Putin despite actual facts.
Still, centrists have always been the Daily Mail's useful idiots.
And it must fight to leave NATO – “an imperialist war machine that profits from death and destruction” and makes the world “less safe, not more” with its “endless wars”. As she asserted:
every penny that is spent on tanks and bombs is stolen from healthcare, housing and the future.
It was Russia that invaded and occupied Ukraine and Georgia and Moldova, not NATO. It is Putin that is spending 43% of the state budget on the military, not NATO.
“politics of anti-imperialism” also matters, she insisted
Except when it comes to Russia and Putin's adventures where he seeks to reassert control over Russia's former imperial possessions.
It's especially bizarre that Sultana should criticise the occupation and genocide of a Muslim population in Gaza - and be an apologist for Putin's occupation and genocide of the Muslim population of Crimea, the Tatars.
Tankie is still an in use term (very common in certain circles)
Where is it common? I've only seen it used here.
X most commonly, but also on Reddit and right leaning forums. Certainly way more than I've seen it here.
X most commonly, but also on Reddit and right leaning forums. Certainly way more than I've seen it here.
So a right wing insult? That explains a few things.
X most commonly, but also on Reddit and right leaning forums. Certainly way more than I've seen it here.
So a right wing insult? That explains a few things.
"Tankie" is a intra-left wing criticism of "anti-deviationists" (Stalinists) after Hungary 56, Prague Spring etc
"Tankie" is a intra-left wing criticism of "anti-deviationists" (Stalinists) after Hungary 56, Prague Spring etc
As a former member of the Communist Party of Great Britain I can confirm that It refers to the differences within the party with regards to attitudes towards the Soviet Union but it doesn't date from Hungary 1956.
It is actually with reference to Soviet tanks rolling into Czechoslovakia 1968 but the actual term was coined later than that. It was a term that was first used in connection to the emergence of Eurocommunism. Eurocommunism was largely adopted by the CPGB and it made a clear distinction between the communism of parties in Western Europe and the Soviet Union. Despite very strong fraternal links Eurocommunists were often highly critical of the CPSU including over the issue of the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Those within the party who resisted this criticism of the SU ended up being labelled tankies.
(I considered myself to be very much a Eurocommunist but was happy to call myself a tankie just to wind up the more bourgeois elements within the party. Highly destructive bourgeois elements such as Martin Jacques who went on to successfully liquidate and shut down the party)
The term is totally redundant now for obvious reasons. Still, I guess that it won't stop some right-wingers trying to resuscitate the term as they desperately try to make a disingenuous link between that champion of the hard-right, Vladimir Putin, and the Left.
It is surprising just how much centrists have in common with the Daily Mail when it comes to their shared hatred of the Left.
Hatred? Or just mockery for their eternal quest to take the Life of Brian as a documentary?
It is surprising just how much centrists have in common with the Daily Mail when it comes to their shared hatred of the Left.
Hatred? Really? Or just we’ll-deserved mockery for the left’s eternal quest to take the Life of Brian as a documentary and something to aspire to?
I loved the final para from the Canary article you posted…
The energy and hope in the room was palpable. And tonight, Sultana will be with Jeremy Corbyn in front of an even bigger crowd in Liverpool.
To the dismay of the billionaire class and its lackeys, Your Party is clearly just getting started.
Yeah, I bet ‘the establishment’ is absolutely shitting itself. 
Tankie" is a intra-left wing criticism of "anti-deviationists" (Stalinists) after Hungary 56, Prague Spring etc
Yet you said:
X most commonly, but also on Reddit and right leaning forums. Certainly way more than I've seen it here.
How is that "intra-left"?
Yeah, I bet ‘the establishment’ is absolutely shitting itself.
You're probably right. It's so unpopular, that a further loss of votes isn't going to make any difference. Regardless of support from its useful idiots.
It is surprising just how much centrists have in common with the Daily Mail when it comes to their shared hatred of the Left.
Is that so? I vote LibDem, does that mean I share a hatred of the Left, that I share with the Daily Mail? ‘Cos it’s news to me, as a member of a ‘terrorist organisation’*, Antifa.(copyright D Trump).
*And yes, I’m perfectly aware that it’s an ideology, that joins together everyone who harbours a deep rooted hatred of the Extreme Right.
I’m going to see if I can get Genmoji on my phone to create an emoji of the Antifa flag, as an additional part of trolling Republicans and their Minions.
Good to see that our resident lefties (solidarity comrades) are reinforcing their relevance by arguing over whether a phrase laughingly referring to them, which 99.999999999% of the population will never have heard of, refers to Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968
Finger on the pulse there comrades
Oh look, the useful idiot is recycling his memes, as his party slides into oblivion.
Finger on the pulse there comrades
Says the man who wants to talk about every political party in the UK except the one which is governing the country and he is apparently a member of! 😂
We all know very well your opinions on Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch, Jeremy Corbyn, and a multitude of minor politicians, because you love talking about them, but despite your deep interest in politics you have absolutely nothing at all to say about the UK Prime Minister!
99.9% of the population consider the Prime Minister to be the most important politician in the UK but you want to focus solely on opposition politicians......finger on the pulse mate! 🤣
Thought this thread was about Corbyns bumbling attempt at a new party so not really sure why Ernie is rambling on about the government. I think there's a thread specifically for people to lose their shit about how Starmer is managing the country.
Monty Python unleashes the wrath of the 6.
not really sure why Ernie is rambling on about the government.
I have checked just in case I had inadvertently posted anything about the government and no, I definitely haven't posted anything at all about the government, never mind "rambling on" as you claim.
If I want to discuss the government I do it on the UK government thread, in fact I regularly do.
What I have done though is ask binners a perfectly reasonable question......why does he have so much to say about "your party" but absolutely nothing at all to say about "his party"?
Don't you find it peculiar that someone so interested in politics should want to discuss every political party except the one he is actually a member of?
Don't you find it peculiar that someone so interested in politics should want to discuss every political party except the one he is actually a member of?
It will be a combination of embarrassment and denial of the party they were so supportive of turning out to be so shit. Luckily a lot of people are not in that stage and even though they supported Labour before the election now can't wait to see the back of them. I genuinely don't know what significant differences we would have seen if Sunak had continued on.
As for Corbyns party, I am sticking with Greens who have a leader who actually has a chance of getting somewhere rather than Corbyn, who is a proven useless leader and Sultana who is a bit unknown seems to lose it too quickly. The polices between the two parties will be so similar it makes no difference.