[Closed] Will we see Christmas?

oh, and russia's accidentally dropped 4 cruise missiles on Iran tonight....

Unless you're planning on a Christmas break in Libya I think you'll be fine.

'Accidentally' gave their friends, Iran, 4 long range cruise missiles, shirley?

I think the idea of not seeing Christmas is a bit OTT, but nevertheless, i saw the news tonight and for the frst time i took a 'gulp' and thought 'Oh shit...'.

It's unlikely that we're screwed but either way there's no point worrying about. You have absolutely zero influence on how any of this pans out.

Americans say 4 missiles dropped on Iran. The Russians and more interestingly the Iranians say they didn't. So even if they did it looks like the Iranians are ok with it.

Funnily enough, i haven't got a scooby doo about who is on who's side and who wants what. I trust neither the UK/US or Russian propaganda and for the first time (possibly ever) i have no idea what is really going on. I think thats the scary part for me as opposed to worrying about the actual bombings, wherever they might be.

EDIT - i dont mean to say that its the first time i dont know whats going on, rather that i feel that i dont know whats going on... probably not explaining it too well!

i dont mean to say that its the first time i dont know whats going on, rather that i feel that i dont know whats going on... probably not explaining it too well!

Do you mean that you sense that some bugger is definitely lying but you have no idea of which one of them it is?

They are probably both lying but one less so than the other 😀 🙂

From what I have seen/read it seems to me like Russia actually have an interest in ending the conflict and have absolutely no problem bombing the s**t out of IS, whereas there is a large presence of extremism in the UK and USA I would imagine that in Russia this isn't the case so/or their government aren't afraid of upsetting them. The yanks especially don't like this as Russia has always been seen as the enemy hence the propoganda from them.

I could be completely wrong however....

...whereas there is a large presence of extremism in the UK and USA I would imagine that in Russia this isn't the case so/or their government aren't afraid of upsetting them.

The number of UK and US nationals combined fighting in Syria is probably (no one actually knows for sure) measured in the low to mid hundreds. The figure I've seen for Russian nationals is somewhere closer to two and a half thousand. Our media and some politicians would have us believe that we are a hot bed of extremism but it's just not the case.

Ah right, in that case my money is on Russia making the yanks look bad

My money is on each superpower wanting to create an ally in the middle east. If Russia can keep Assad in power then then what's left of Syria is going to align itself with Russia. If the rebels seize power and Assad goes then the West might gain an ally* If I.S. seize power then neither Russia nor the Americans gain an ally.

It appears that the west is committed to bombing the crap out of I.S. so with the Russians now bombing whoever else opposes Assad it looks like between Eastern bombs and Western bombs they'll weaken the overall resistance enough for Assad's forces to strengthen their position and either keep him in power or at the very least allow him to leave on his terms.

* Western allies in the middle east have a habit of becoming western enemies after a period of time, we seem to permanently back a wrongun'

Russia are not attacking IS , they are after the rebels opposed to Assad in an attempt to prop up his vile regime.

He has been dropping barrel bombs and using chemical weapons on his own people FFS.

We're all going to die.

Carry on.

Made christmas puds and cake last week, so I really hope we do

I'm not, I'm going to live until at the very least Christmas as I've a holiday booked kitesurfing in Morocco.

Ner ner.

Corbyn said last week that Trident was useless against terrorists so should be scrapped.

Do you think he ever watches the News?

Who do you think we will use it against?

Russia 😆

US-Russian relations are at their lowest since the end of the cold war.
But Russia is not to blame. The US policy hawks/neocons who want to continue a reckless policy of regime change in the middle-east and the former Soviet states are the ones responsible for the geo-political mess we now live in. The US was also complicit in the wide-scale theft of the Russian economy after the fall of the Soviet regime.
The Neocons see the escalation of tensions with Russia as a golden opportunity to start another round of wars by depicting Putin as yet another one of their Existential Threats.
I don't see either side backing down. Depressing.

Corbyn said last week that Trident was useless against terrorists so should be scrapped.

Do you think he ever watches the News?

I presumed that was where he informed his oppinion from.

USA and Russia aren't short of nukes, IS are a problem, they've not used their nukes, QED nukes are useless against terrorists.

It's a giant foreign policy fustercluck largely of our own making. Our politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

Edit: when Trump takes over as president we will really be in trouble.

I blame Blair.

Edukator - Troll
I blame Blair.

Me too.

Fair do's, Putin has played an absolute blinder here. He has totally out manoeuvred the West and now has the upper hand. The West can't do much about Putin now and I wouldn't be surprised if Putin uses this to get what he wants in the ME and the easing of sanctions at home.

Will we see Xmas? I think so and we'll see next Xmas too. The West knows the stakes are high so will avoid any confrontation with Russia (Obama wants out of ME).

Turkey is the key IMO. If something happens to Turkey's interests/forces in the region or an out of control Russian cruise missile lands on a Turkish city then things might get out of control. Turkey has the 10th most powerful army in the world, has a proud military history that is being supplied by the West and bank rolled by the Gulf States/SA. The Turks don't like Assad or Russia and then add in the Sunni v Shia rivalry and that's where the flashpoint will be. Turkey is a Nato member and if attacked, Nato will have to defend Turkey.

I'm wondering how many days I'll manage to open in my lego advent calendar.

not really.

It's a giant foreign policy fustercluck largely of our own making.

Anyway, it will all be over by Christmas. It always is.

Chaos in the middle east will do wonders for oil prices which would be nice for Russia.

I blame Blair.

Lionel Blair?

Whats happening now then? I don't pay attention to the news about the region, as I remember being reliably informed that this whole middle east business had been sorted once and for all....

[img] http://citizenbrand.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c728253ef0120a772f33a970b-pi [/img]

Is this not the case then?

It doesn't matter what Obama wants, the lads outta there.

I never thought I would warm to Putin, but the thought of him vs Trump in a cage fight makes me wonder.

Just wait until uncle Kim kicks off again...
[img] [/img]

Anyway, we all were meant to die in a post nuclear holocaust all the way through my childhood....

I blame Blair.

I blame Lance

Can't we just ally with Switzerland and forget all about this shit??

Hope not, because Christmas is a foolish nonsense, much loved by fools and folk with no sense.

just5minutes - Member

oh, and russia's accidentally dropped 4 cruise missiles on Iran tonight....

Well it's up to you if you decide to believe an unnamed anonymous US source. Iran has denied the claim and it serves US interests for the claim to be believed.

The brilliant thing about the alleged malfunction of the Russian cruise missiles is that apparently all 4 malfunctions by pure coincidence occurred over Iran, so the unnamed anonymous US source doesn't have to provide any evidence at all.

If just one had malfunctioned over Iraq, which was also under the cruise missile flight path, then the unnamed anonymous US source might have been expected to perhaps provide some vague evidence.

So that was lucky then.

Hmm, not sure but as I'm in Russia on business at the end of the month, I'll let you know if troops are massing on the border!

Well it's up to you if you decide to believe an unnamed anonymous US source. Iran has denied the claim and it serves US interests for the claim to be believed.

The brilliant thing about the alleged malfunction of the Russian cruise is missiles is that apparently all 4 malfunctions by pure coincidence occurred over Iran, so the unnamed anonymous US source doesn't have to provide any evidence at all.

If just one had malfunctioned over Iraq, which was also under the cruise missile flight path, then the unnamed anonymous US source might have been expected to perhaps provide some vague evidence.

So that was lucky then.

They spoke to a guy on R4 this morning who said there were (IIRC) four unaccounted missiles based on the number fired verses the number of known impact spots so the missing ones must have ended up somewhere.

I don't see the problem though since missiles do malfunction. I think R4 guy said based on this usage the malfunction rate was about twice the rate of US cruise missiles which doesn't seem terrible to me.

I'm a bit worried TBH ....

Ever seen [url=

It starts with a war in the Middle East 😯

Christmas is tedious commercial nonsense. Humbug. Let the missiles fly.

the missing ones must have ended up somewhere.

The unnamed anonymous US source was very specific that all 4 malfunctioning missiles landed in Iran. Rural Iran apparently, so quite specific.

To be fair Russia has a great record of propping up regimes in Islamic countries with direct military support, what's that example I'm thinking of.

Anyway, I hear there's been great succes in the last decade or so of foreign powers using military might to make everything just spot on in the Middle East. I'm sure a lightweight highly motivated opposing force that's prepared to die for their cause won't stand a chance.

I reckon it was 007 escaping from a mission in Russia hiding inside a cruise misslie with a very attractive Russian double agent called Katya lotacoch

**** knows what any of the bombing will achieve, Yemen is being starved and bombed into dust by the Saudis and their Airforce of British bombs and planes (twice the size of our own)
The number of people forced to flee Syria will only increase , and lead to unimaginable hardship as winter arrives
The surge in violence in Israel will probably lead to Israel killing another 1000 civilians in another bombing campaign.

And the circle of arms sales, bombing, radicalisation and terror continues

Anyway, I hear there's been great succes in the last decade or so of foreign powers using military might to make everything just spot on in the Middle East. I'm sure a lightweight highly motivated opposing force that's prepared to die for their cause won't stand a chance.

The Russians aren't stupid, they are providing logistic/air support to the Syrian army, Hezbollah, and the Iranian-backed Shia militias. ISIS can of course be defeated and the people to do that are the peoples of the Middle East. And I suspect they are more "highly motivated" than a bunch of foreign imported psychopaths.

According to [url= http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ ]this cheery website[/url], I'm sufficiently far enough away from Mancheser and Leeds to avoid incineration or 3rd degree burns 🙂 That's assuming there aren't any more strategic targets closer to Todmorden.

this had some interesting stuff about our history in the middle east and Churchill's actions to secure the black stuff and help set us on this road

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02gzf9k

From the moment we first drilled for oil, we opened a Pandora's box that changed the world forever. It transformed the way we lived our lives, spawned foreign wars and turned a simple natural resource into the most powerful political weapon the world has ever known. But when exactly did geology turn into such a high-stakes game?

The unnamed anonymous US source was very specific that all 4 malfunctioning missiles landed in Iran. Rural Iran apparently, so quite specific.

So we know there are missing missiles. We know those missiles flew over Iran on the way to their target to avoid Turkey.

It seems entirely plausible to me they'd be in Iran and that America would have monitoring kit to know where they crashed.

Not certain, but plausible.

im absolutely certain the 'mericans are tracking every crusie missile carefully, Im not sure Id trust what they are saying though, they are probably double bluffing the russians about how much they know, and know the info will play differently in different countries

Im not sure Id trust what they are saying though

And you need to have an excellent level of trust when it's an "unnamed anonymous US source" saying it.

Time for America to reveal if it has the 'star wars' weapon or not?

No one has ever "won" a war out there.
Let's pull out and let the Russians get bogged down.
Instead of spending money on bombs let's spend it making renewable energy in this country.
Surely this is all about who owns the energy supplies.

Has no one mentioned these minor details?
1) Syria is a Russian satellite state which explains how the civil war continued for so long, Putin does not like the West meddling in his satellite states (e.g. Ukraine)
2) The west can't go in all guns blazing (like they did in their satellite state Iraq), see point 1 and because their electorates don't want another Iraq/Afghanistan
3) When the Rebel Alliance finally started threatening the evil Empire's Death Star... oops wrong story line 🙂 When anti-Assad rebels started moving west and threatened Russia's only Mediterranean Naval Base Putin reacts by attacking the anti-Assad rebels supported by the West
4) What the West's goal is in Syria I don't have a scooby and I suspect neither does anyone. As removing Assad would be a bit like removing Saddam/Gaddafi and look how that has gone. I suspect you get the leaders you deserve.

According to this cheery website,

That's great!

I have a book at home written in the late 60s which sets down in incredibly cold, academic detail the consequences of different nuclear scenarios in terms of casualties, economic impact and so on. It is one of the most chilling things I've ever read.

Whatever happens, I want it resolved before my kids reach conscription age.....

According to this cheery website, I'm sufficiently far enough away from Mancheser and Leeds to avoid incineration or 3rd degree burns That's assuming there aren't any more strategic targets closer to Todmorden.

That depends on the size of the nuke. If the Russians dropped a 100MT "Tsar Bomba" on Manchester, there wouldn't be much of Todmorden left. People would be sufferring 3rd degree burns in Harrogate!

what that site neglects to feature is the proliferation of nuclear zombies. this is what I'm interested in.
although in the North West, I doubt they'd notice the difference.

Russia's in recession, the global economy incl ours and the US is looking v shaky, Saudi economy has a problem and there's a potential succession crisis on the way.
What would be the best way to take the various populations' eyes off the crises and keep the angry young men occupied instead of rioting?

War can serve many purposes for all concerned...military industrial complex springs to mind - nice bit of economic stimulus...

I don't know the full story of 1929 crash to 1930's Great Depression to WW2 but there's a worrying parallel in the current narrative...

According to this cheery website, I'm sufficiently far enough away from Mancheser and Leeds to avoid incineration or 3rd degree burns

A moderate sized nuke on Lakenheath would leave me unaffected. But the trails in Thetford forest might suffer a bit.

But there would be an awesome new bomb hole, so it wouldn't be all bad.

A moderate sized nuke on Lakenheath would leave me unaffected. But the trails in Thetford forest might suffer a bit.

What tyres for glass trails?

What tyres for glass trails?

I asked myself that very question this morning when the authorities had decided they didn't need to remove the masses of glass from the bike path after a car accident earlier in the week.

****s

What would be the best way to take the various populations' eyes off the crises and keep the angry young men occupied instead of rioting?

Free hookers?

That depends on the size of the nuke. If the Russians dropped a 100MT "Tsar Bomba" on Manchester,

Yeah my optimism was based on them dropping a cuban missile crisis era 2.4MT bomb. I reckon they'd save the 100MT monsters for the major US cities 🙂

The nuclear zombies point is a good one though. Think I might have to go and price up some razor wire and a few shotguns.

bikebouy - Member
Edukator - Troll
I blame Blair.
Me too.

So we've moved on from blaming the Great She-Elephant for everything, then?

I blame the great she elephant!!... 😆

tinybits - Member
Hmm, not sure but as I'm in Russia on business at the end of the month, I'll let you know if troops are massing on the border

Can you update us when you get shot for spying.. 😉

I blame Blair.
Me too.

So we've moved on from blaming the Great She-Elephant for everything, then?

I don't think we should ever stop recognising the profound affect on British politics and British society that Prime Ministers who serve several terms have. They set the agenda, steer legislation, establish foreign policies, etc, the consequences of which easily outlive their premiership by many years if not decades.

Thatcher's admirers loudly sing her praises emphasising above all her profound affect on British society, but yet in what can only be described as breathtaking hypocrisy they invariably deny that Thatcher has left any sort of legacy.

Blair on the other hand doesn't seem to have any admirers, despite having won a general election landslide victory, everyone it would appear hates him now, so there isn't that comparable level of hypocrisy.

What Thatcher did was ultimately internal to the country - i.e..on our own citizens confined to our borders.

What Blair did has affected the entire geopolitical world (within constrains obviously) - i.e..every person on the planet

piha - Member

Will we see Xmas? I think so and we'll see next Xmas too. The West knows the stakes are high so will avoid any confrontation with Russia (Obama wants out of ME).

Turkey is the key IMO.

I agree, Turkey is the key to a good Christmas.

What Thatcher did was ultimately internal to the country - i.e..on our own citizens confined to our borders.
What Blair did has affected the entire geopolitical world (within constrains obviously) - i.e..every person on the planet

This.

Blair helped to bring an apocalypse down on a whole region which is still ongoing and can never be undone.

Even if you think Thatcher was a disaster it was on a completely different scale and can mostly be undone if people want to undo it. (Which we seem not to.)

Blair on the other hand doesn't seem to have any admirers, despite having won a general election landslide victory, everyone it would appear hates him now, so there isn't that comparable level of hypocrisy.

Blair didn't loose an election, even in the middle of the Iraq war. Only a tiny minority actually cared about the war, not enough to cause even a blip in an election. He only really started becoming unpopular after he left office and started his money grubbing second career.

Blair's legacy is equal to Maggy's.

Blair helped to bring an apocalypse down on a whole region which is still ongoing and can never be undone.

I think you'll find the region was in turmoil, long before Blair came along

If you want to blame a british politician, Churchill had a much greater role in creating the problems in the Middle East than Blair could ever have managed

I hope so as we've promised a member of staff we'll honour his Xmas if changes positions. He'll clean us out in a tribunal if the world ends.

I see the champion of reliable news reporting 'The Express' is reporting a Russia jet has been shot down by Turkey

I think you'll find the region was in turmoil, long before Blair came along.

The old testament is witness to this fact.

I think you have selective hearing.

Not at all. Blair's "admirers" are mostly Tories, you even mention one as an example. And as Tories they tend not to defend Blair, for obvious reasons. This is quite different to Thatcher's admirers who are also invariably Tories and are very quick to defend her.

.

I think you'll find the region was in turmoil, long before Blair came along.

Well that's obviously nonsense. The region wasn't in "turmoil" before Blair came along.

Churchill ......blah, blah, blah

ffs

Well that's obviously nonsense. The region wasn't in "turmoil" before Blair came along.

yes ernie it was like a modern day paradise 😉 , do you live in a complete fantasy land?.......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_conflicts_in_the_Middle_East

1980–1988 Iran-Iraq war[19][48][j]
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
1,000,000–1,250,000 casualties
1984–2013 Turkey-PKK conflict
Turkey
Iraqi
Kurdistan
Iraq
30,000–100,000
1986 South Yemen Civil War[50]
South Yemen
5,000–12,000
1986 Egyptian Conscription Riot
[Egypt
107
1986 Damascus bombings
Syria
204
1987 Iranian pilgrim riot (Mecca massacre)
Saudi Arabia
402
1987–1988 ANO Executions
Lebanon
Syria
170
1989–1996 KDPI insurgency (1989–96)
Iran 168-503
1990–1991 Gulf War[36] Iraq
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia 40,000–57,000
1991 uprisings in Iraq
Iraq
50,000–100,000
1992–2000 Muslim Brotherhood terror campaig
Egypt
1,300–2,000
1994 civil war in Yemen[
Yemen
7,000–10,000
1995– Islamic Insurgency in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
300

and palestine and israel hows that been?

Blair's domestic policy was OK, and he was an election winning machine. The reason he has no defenders is that the only thing he gets attacked for is two of his wars, and they're indefnsible. In his book even Blair doesn't seriously try to defend the Iraq decision.

Not at all. Blair's "admirers" are mostly Tories, you even mention one as an example. And as Tories they tend not to defend Blair, for obvious reasons. This is quite different to Thatcher's admirers who are also invariably Tories and are very quick to defend her

I see what you're getting at but Maggie influenced Blair and Brown profoundly. Actually that's probably exactly what you're getting at.

She thought New Labour was here greatest achievement after all.

She thought New Labour was her greatest achievement after all.

And she was right imo.

yes ernie it was like a modern day paradise , do you live in a complete fantasy land?.......

Well I certainly don't live in your fantasy world kimbers where Iraq's present "turmoil" is down to Churchill not Blair.

Your ridiculous partisan "everything is the fault of Tory politicians" nonsense is comparable to the similarly ridiculous partisan nonsense that jambalaya spouts.