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42m I think, 12m was the opening offer, still not going to help much.
Just seems to be a variation on a Dutch Auction but starting with the highest price to your region in terms of economic damage. Might have to add another gameshow for Mr Cummings to host - The Price is Life.
Longer term if Team Boris come away with their tails between their legs from Europe and from the Regions it's going to send an easy picking message out for countries where we need trade deals. We're just digging ourselves deeper into the hole.
Today’s briefing
Very interesting again, thanks Bill.
I didn't have any real picture about what is happening in NI and Spain before that.
Curious to the worst it could actually get in the uk, so been looking at the death rate. Basically just as a measurement that by the end up to gauge how good or bad it has actually been. Basically just looking to quantify actual worst case scenario, out of pure curiosity.
Obviously this is the let it rip scenario i'm trying to quantify here, which isn't happening, mm, well kinda, we'll see what the gov does going forward and if it has a strategy..
But given the estimate that about 5-10% of the uk have been infected, so lets go with 7% for talking sake, err on the low end of mid for that, and that there's a disproportionate risk to over 70s of death. I'm thinking along these lines:
Population uk 7% = 4.6655m
percentage over 70 in uk = 15.21%
So over 70 @ 7% = 70,9622
Under 70 @ 7% = 3,955,877
Under 70 = 6772 deaths / 3,955,877 * 100 = 0.17%
Over 70 = 31632 deaths / 709,622 * 100 = 4.45%
To take that to a whole population level, means that if the let it rip strategy was implemented. We are looking at max death levels in the uk of somewhere in the region of:
66.65million = 10.114m over 70 + 56.52m under 70.
So death rate could be as high as:
Over 70 - 450,073
Under 70 - 90,084
So total there is 540,157. So at the minute, you could maybe say roughly 8% of possible deaths have happened in the uk?
Again, just fag packet maths, but what's wrong with my thinking there? Apart from there being high uncertainty in the number of people that have actually had it. I'd guess you could easily apply a +/-3% or more to this and it's highly speculative.
Guess maybe 7% of over 70s having had it might be a massive underestimate, given the prevalence in care homes earlier on?
So total there is 540,157.
You're figures look reasonable... but for two things that could send the estimate either way...
1) we now know more about how to protect and treat people than we did when most of the previous deaths occurred... more of the vulnerable should be better protected from catching the virus... more of those that get ill should be saved
2) most previous deaths occurred with medical care being available, harsh rationing was limited, because we "locked down" to "protect the NHS"... too many people getting ill at once has to mean a greater proportion dying... more NHS staff will be ill and unavilable... more people will be without access to care and equipment that could save them
Yep, IndieSage is free of political pressure and therefore can observe and advise from a purely scientific perspective. It was set up by David King (former Cambridge Prof of Chemistry, Master of Downing College, VC (?) of Liverpool University, co-inventor of the catalytic converter, Scientific Advisor to the Blair and Brown governments) and involves people who are significant in their field but not constrained by party political considerations or concerns. I wouldn't see it as a pressure group as its focus is widespread and multi-faceted, they're just making the best use of what they know and I'm very f grateful for that.
No Whitty with Johnson today.
Andy Burnham not on the Christmas card (aka thank you) to the regional leaders list lol....
Ouch
Wait, Cornwall? Has Dom been reading this thread?
Wait, Cornwall? Has Dom been reading this thread?
Dammit, rumbled! I'm off to Castle Barnard.
Again, just fag packet maths, but what’s wrong with my thinking there?
I think the original lockdown was triggered by a report that suggested that the "let it rip" approach would cost half a million lives, so your fag packet seems pretty accurate.
Probably a dead cat briefing so the evening news focuses on that rather than the brexit clock running down and the ongoing cluster mess that they are making of Covid.
Tonights headlines... "PM promises roll out of millions of 5 minute covid tests to open up the economy". Can anyone smell something?
So if you go in to Tier 3 willinging, Boris will throw you some extra tests? How generous
Most of that was "Andy Burnham, get back in your box". A bit school bully like because if he doesn't, Boris is going to get him.
So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.
What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?
Questions from the public… the answers to those… blimey… “check the website”… no shielding anywhere.
The main groups exposed last spring had higher percentages of over 70s to the national average? Conversely less people exposed who are just living relatively normally with diagnosed / un diagnosed underlying conditions. I suspect the under 70s will go up as you start to have more of the underlying condition people catching it. Death rates for obesity, smoking etc in the spring compared to percentage of population would start to build up the numbers - keeping to the back of a fag packet approach. Over 70s deaths will now be in situations where medical care isn't available. The people who are coping in their own homes. Whilst the numbers may go down due to an over representation in the deaths due to things like care homes they may go up due to more people being further away from quick help. And then there's the rationing thing.
Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That's due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases. Still early in the South and London, but cases were lower when schools went back and a lower number in exponential-land is called a lag time.
Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?
Dammit, rumbled! I’m off to Castle Barnard.
Nothing to see in Barney - move along - I hear Corfe is rather nice this time of year.
Did we do the eye test chart of castles?
binners
Full Member
So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?
Like it or not, kinda got you by the short and curly's, what's manchester going, to do, sit about and watch a % of your over 70s and vulnerable pop their clogs and go, see told ye boris...
I agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.
Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That’s due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases.
My assumption was that as it was getting fuller they weren't putting 85+ in ICU anymore, as the change of the graph was striking, thanks for confirming
Why are they bothering to ask Johnson anything? It’s as if all he knows is what he has just heard in the last 10 minutes.
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
They wont be mixing within the work place, be involved within the education system, or down at the pub.
Johnson just said that there is no shielding, even in tier3 regions, that should partly answer your question. Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.
Nosocomial (hospital acquire), nursing homes, general contacts, grandchildren... Some aspect of each of these in varying degrees. Admissions with COVID19 also counts those already in hospital who become positive, I believe. In March/April it was mainly the first routes, now it may not be so much.
Sadly there is very little evidence of a role of population immunity, contact restriction and barrier precautions are (at the moment) the primary means of control of contagion.
Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?
You've kind of answered your own question. Whitty was too direct on Science only responses last time out.
Why the **** is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling ****!
.
As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.
agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.
We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.
It’s made the square root of * all difference to our infection rate.
So let’s just shut down the bits of our economy that are still open, with no financial aid
* off Boris!
Why the * is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling *!
The press brought it up.
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
Having seen a couple of coachloads of geriatric daytrippers from Wigan being disgorged into Skipton this week, I think there are some possibilities.
Quite a few are still the childcare backstop in their families.
Meanwhile, Binners is going into full Network mode. Always awesome to watch 🙂
Yeah, agree with seosamh.
Boris has failed rule 1.
No need to outdo him and fight lockdown.
That's a lot of blood on hands.
You’ve kind of answered your own question.
I try.
I appreciate people still need to go shopping and other essential business
Well, there you go. The more people carrying the virus around the community, the more risky the essential stuff is for people who perhaps should be shielding (but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be).
Binners is going into full Network mode.
Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.
But on the same logic that we are asking certain geographical parts of the country to have differing levels of restrictions, why are we not taking the same view on age?
but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be
Every man and woman for themselves, seems to be official government policy now.
why are we not taking the same view on age?
Why is no one shielding? Ask the PM.
Vallance saying tier 3 won't be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Who says there isn't?
How are the people over 70 catching this though?
It's incredibly contagious. For example studies have shown that covid can survive for at least 28 days on cash, and it's days on things like glass, plastic, even paper.
It's killed pretty quickly by UV light, but we get very little day light in the UK in Winter, and when we do, it's not very bright.
It's not hard for example to consider a 70 year old, popping to the shop, not going within 2m of anyone, everyone is wearing a mask, but they pick up a bag of pasta off the shelf, that 4 days before someone with covid picked up and decided not to buy, or the shop staff had covid etc, they take it to the till, pay with cash (few over 70s like using cards) get change etc. Their weaker immune system which means they'll suffer more from covid, is the same thing that means they're far more likely to not be able to fight off the infection from a simple touch.
It's staggering really, but for every 100 people with Covid, 80 don't know they have it, 20 will have symptoms but less than 4 of them will actually self-isolate. 3.4% of people with Covid, actually fully self-isolate.
I'd really love to see a proper study on how Royal Mail, Amazon and other couriers are spreading Covid between their colleagues and the letter/parcel recipients. An item can easily be handled by four posties just from the point of entering the delivery depot, before looking at its movement from the sender and through the distribution network.
The press brought it up.
How convenient, he could have just said this is a covid briefing
Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?
Tier four is really silo three in the soon to be announced regional silo scale - which will run along side the covid alert levels land lock down tiers.
Is there any evidence people were catching it from surfaces in large numbers? Most 70+ people i know have incredible social lives and are at risk of catching it through close contact like the rest of us.
Is that a similar principle to the Silo in Fallout 4?