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The website is a bit more balanced - the video isn't the edit that made it clear from here, but there are quotes from the trimmed bits. Loving this bit from the article though:
But Health Secretary Matt Hancock said local leaders should "set aside party politics" and work with the government, with cases rising "exponentially" in the north west of England.
"This is a time for people to come together so that we can control this virus," he said.
He added that an "unprecedented package of support" has been put forward
Looks like he's missed the brief that his fellow Tory MP's are siding with Burnham. And the meaning of the word unprecedented. A better package of support was put in place by YOUR government earlier this year, you utter dolt.
kelvin – add timely to your list above.
I was going to… but it’s already too late for the NW… the next few weeks will be hard no matter what measures come in, and when, sadly.
Just heard Hancock replying to one of the Stockport MPs (Hazel Grove) in the commons… his response was all about “cross party cooperation”… but the MP is a Tory (Wragg?), and he was complaining about the complete lack of cooperation and consultation between the government and its own Tory MPs.
Kelvin - that’s the one who described communicating with the government as ‘like talking to a wall’
The thing is that his constituency is leafy true blue Toryville. His constituents are natural Tory voters who know they’ll be watching their businesses go bust and their favourite bistro and wine bars boarded up if the government go ahead with this without a financial support package.
All I’ve heard today is praise for Andy Burnham sticking up for our communities, businesses, jobs and livelihoods against a tin-eared government
So, and also the WHO have told the UK to "get a grip" and TfL have been awarded a £1bn bailout - thats two months running the services - and Kahn has stated that TfL goes bankrupt on 17th October without it. That then gives them to December 17th before TfL switches the lights off.
Flippin 'eck, its not looking good for our Government is it. Surely someone can step in and stop this?
How long until enough letters are in to the 1922?
But yeah looks like the North is ****ed as the government don't care.
but then we all are come January so it's not going to get any better
Measures need to be:
It's almost like they have gone for pick two from:
Don't spend money
Effectively suppresses the virus
Protects the economy
Not convinced they have picked 2 of those.
more like just the one of don't spend money
more like just the one of don’t spend money
https://twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1316711335351275520?s=21
https://twitter.com/richardjmurphy/status/1316725489747329025?s=21
They've completely lost control by this point.
Mark Menzies, the Conservative MP for the Fylde, got so cross that he wasn’t allowed to ask questions that he hung up in frustration
They cant rely on the north south divide to push their agenda anymore because of the number of their own MPs representing Northern regions now.
Whilst is is not really the done thing to comment on leaked trial data, remdesivir has failed to show an effect on mortality in hospitalised patients on ten-day therapy in the who SOLIDARITY trial. I’m not at all surprised since the anti viral effects are modest and the patients are likely past the initial viral stage. This is the same population as was shown to benefit from dexamethasone in the RECOVERY trial.
Other treatments are still ongoing. Lilly halted their antibody trial for an adverse event in this same population, but such things are the rules of the game. AEs are not uncommon, even for antibody therapy, and they have not given any details yet.
Understand that In the cycle of drug discovery and development, we are so very early and running so very fast. Treatments will come but one has to be (a little) realistic, given this virus was unknown eight months ago. Antibody trials have read out in mild patients and are seeking early approval.
More profound disease is being tested with other anti-inflammatory agents (gmcsf is one of ours, otilimab). We will see in due course how this pans out. In the meantime, ICNARC have reported a very impressive improvement in survival since Sept 1.
[tl:dr] one negative survival trial does not mean effective therapies aren’t coming, and patients are already managed better than they were and more surviving.
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Figure 13
Boris still AWOL again?
He’ll have to think long and hard about picking a fight with Andy - a man with a hundred times his political ability who, in the space of a day, seems to have established himself as the voice of a region. A really, really angry and pissed off region that has had more than enough of this governments shit!
Andy’s tone perfectly reflected the mood of most people up here after only 3 weeks not under lockdown since March, and even harsher restrictions now being dictated from London.
MP’s like Graham Brady aren’t stupid. They have enough political noise to read the room well enough, even if Boris is incapable of doing so.
His response, when Dom tells him it, if misjudged, could quite easily raise the temperature in the North West from angry to incandescent
One of Dons cronies had started this morning with the statement “we can either do this with you or to you”
That’s what passes as ‘consultation’ with this shower. How to win friends and influence people? The sheer arrogance of it!
I don't know if I've posted this before....but this Family Guy clip perfectly sums up Britains direction at the moment...
I don’t know if I’ve posted this before….but this Family Guy clip perfectly sums up
BritainsEngland's direction at the moment…
FTFY
The Magic Boris Money Tree, that dwarfs the Corbyn variant, knows no end...
If you're a mate of Boris, Dom, or the Tory Party.
most people up here
Be careful Binners, don’t promote a North / South divide. This is a political doing and not of the people. Us Southerners although not yet as affected - and speaking for myself - are also getting pretty angry.
You should be angry
You’re next
I genuinely think that Boris and Cummings and co don’t give a shit about anyone other than themselves and their mates, who’s pockets they’re busy lining.
We’re just an easy target up here, and we’re used to it. Some idiots up here thought it might be different. Most of us didn’t
Resilience and stoicism are Northern traits.
You guys down south are going to have develop this as you're next
☹️
London is an exception in a good way. Name another European capital city that isn't amongst the worst affected areas in the country. Is London next or are Londoners better behaved with a higher level of immunity from the first wave? I hope it's the latter. A UK Strasbourg.
You’re next
You know I’m not arguing against this right? Go easy on me, my wife’s already redundant, and this week our company was sold off for the second time this year, and I had my HR call today. I’m one of the lucky ones, but nevertheless feeling the weight of the stress and am pretty emotionally tired.
I likely need a break from this thread for a bit, my head is spinning with worry tbh. Sorry to sound narcissistic, I know many are in a far worse situation 🙁
London is an exception in a good way. Name another European capital city that isn’t amongst the worst affected areas in the country. Is London next or are Londoners better behaved with a higher level of immunity from the first wave? I hope it’s the latter. A UK Strasbourg.
London is a ghost town
Im commuting in 4 days a week for 2 months now and every cycle ride is still a pleasant surprise
And I get a seat in & out on the train every single day!!!!!
I wasn’t having a pop @kryton57. Just stating a fact.
We’ve been the victims of both the government’s incompetence and it’s traditional casual disregard for us
You’ve been spared the worst of it, more through luck than judgement, but that won’t last.
Good luck with it
As you’ve no doubt already gathered there is genuine and justified anger up here.
I suspect that our real PM Cummings, through his shoddy, bumbling mouthpiece on earth, will double down and now make everything considerably worse tomorrow.
He loves conflict, thrives off it, and is essentially a psychopath, so laying waste to a regions economy, with all the misery that goes along with it, will be considered a ‘win’ in his book for anyone daring to question his authority.
MoreCashThanDash
Full MemberI absolutely support Burnham on this, but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across.
He made what I'm coming to think of as The Sturgeon Error- basically, you have something correct and true and important to say in a time of national crisis, and you think that being correct and true and important in a time of national crisis is enough to override the politics.
London is a ghost town
Suggests there's not really any real reason, other than it keeps a small number super wealthy, for a lot of people to work in London. Investment could easily be spread more widely through the UK. For me it's less a N-S thing more a at some point you have to accept bottlenecks are bottlenecks you cant just keep stuffing more in there.
but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across
Who wants media polish right now? The people of MCR will admire his hard work and defiant tone. At least that’s what I expect. I’ve lived in various areas of Manchester, and I expect many people will see him grafting and saying what needs saying, plainly and firmly.
Other treatments are still ongoing.
Thanks for delivering bad news in a way that helps us keep it in context.
He made what I’m coming to think of as The Sturgeon Error- basically, you have something correct and true and important to say in a time of national crisis, and you think that being correct and true and important in a time of national crisis is enough to override the politics.
It seems the vast majority of people In greater Manchester - in fact, the whole north of England - would agree with him.
He’s representing the interests of his constituents with a passion I’ve not seen from any politician in an eternity
How is that an error?
“we can either do this with you or to you”
Sounds like johnson's attitude to women; following his father and re-inforced by his Etonian education.
Arrogance, entitlement and ignorance personified.
douglas ross on QT - F me, what a windbag.
It seems the vast majority of people In greater Manchester – in fact, the whole north of England – would agree with him.
For now, and quite rightly. He has to be very careful though not to be aligned with the anti-lockdown herd immunity nutters. When the deaths start rising, as they inevitably will, there will be southern tories queueing up to blame those on Burnham, and heartless northerners who prioritise going down the pub over people's lives. Also to the uninformed and hard of thinking it might look like his defiance is in disagreement with Starrmers call for a circuit breaker. Labour could find themselves in a mess with this very easily.
kelvin
Full MemberWho wants media polish right now?
It makes it more likely to get a good result. I don't want media polish for his own sake but I want his arguments to be harder to misrepresent. Irony- the more logical and reasoned your argument is, the more you have to protect against misrepresentation and other shitty responses, because by making a better argument you're leaving them only those tools and basically making it inevitable that they'll go there, rather than trying a real counterargument and failing.
Same answer really for
binners
Full MemberHe’s representing the interests of his constituents with a passion I’ve not seen from any politician in an eternity
How is that an error?
It makes it more likely to get a good result.
Can you imagine if Corbyn had turned up to have a rant on a street corner wearing a cagoule, scruffy shirt and a pair of jeans? Don't get me wrong, I much prefer this version of Burnham to the Armani suit wearing one, but it does make me roll my eyes seeing some on here go on as if he's the new messiah.
A mayor and party leader have a completely different role. But let’s not go there… please… let’s keep this close to the topic.
Tuning in (my morning) to see what the UK government has been up to...... oh, I see.....
If ever there was a time for a vote of no-confidence, and a national unity government, it's now.
I mean, I don't want to see Bojo and his band of incompetents off-the-hook for the absolute chaos that they've created, both Brexit and Covid, but there comes a point, surely, when the chaos of a VoNC is preferable to the chaos of the status quo?
I think Andy Burnham is playing it exactly right, but he needs to hammer the point that he DOES want a lockdown - but only with economic support. Many Daily Mail types will just hear that that the Northerners are refusing to lock-down.
On the subject of track, trace, Test, Isolate, ours (Aus) actually IS world class, and is used very much in a "get tested, get back to normal" kind of way. Key differences seem to be that people don't need an appointment for a test, results are available within 24 hours, and if you do need to self isolate after a positive test (or are caring for somebody who does), you get paid $1,500 by the government if you don't have any sick leave.
What this means for most people is: get contacted by a contact tracer, told to go for a test, get test and stay at home for the rest of the day, and the next morning. Receive negative result, go about your business.
Can you imagine if Corbyn had turned up to have a rant on a street corner wearing a cagoule, scruffy shirt and a pair of jeans?
That he’d upped both his sartorial game and his philosophy, not to mention his oratory quite considerably?
For the love of god, let’s not drag yet another thread onto the subject of that useless old ****.
He was shit. He’s gone.
Just leave it....
This was a good thread for those concerned about covid and it's effects.
Useful posts, like Tired's, are getting lost in the political ranting between a couple of posters.
Why not have an Andy Burnham! thread, he's earned it.
Tired, almost 800 admissions yesterday, is this still fitting the model you posted a few weeks back. I need reassurance its not going to be worse than last time!!
We’ll be around 500 deaths per day in a month. Baked-in. Just saying.
And that number’s going to keep going up so long as the govt pisses around wasting time.
From what is happening on the continent, the second wave does look worse than the first.
Macron said France needs between 3000 and 5000 cases a day to manage. Above that there will be issues in hospitals.
Also in March, the epidemy was mainly Paris and North East where now it is everywhere.
People are joking that with no kissing and diner at 6pm because of 9pm curfew, Covid is a British disease.
willard
Full Member
From what is happening on the continent, the second wave does look worse than the first.
You can't compare cases, if that's what you are doing, as there is much more testing now - so we're finding a lot more cases that would have gone undetected last time around.
Better to compare hospital admissions and deaths.
If you look at France, deaths have been at around 100-150 for the past 4 weeks or so - whereas back in March they went from 100 deaths/day to 400 deaths/day in about 10 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
The UK numbers are here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
We’ll be around 500 deaths per day in a month. Baked-in. Just saying.
Right now I'd take that.
70 last week
140 this
280 next
560 next
1000+ next
Tired, almost 800 admissions yesterday, is this still fitting the model you posted a few weeks back. I need reassurance its no
At that admissions level we are past linear relationships, deaths in a week‘a time will be
Deaths(+7d) = sqrt(sqrt(800)) x (800/20) = 212
Range is minus a third to plus a half so 133-300. As @thecaptain says, baked in with a doubling currently of 10 days. So 400/day in three to four weeks is perfectly reasonable. By then we should see some effects of intervention. We’ll see how much intervention presently.
I tested that relationship over all admissions and deaths data in England since Week 15 to Week 42. It’s pretty good and the 90% prediction interval is actually narrower than that I give. But safety first ;-). It can also be used on a calculator.
Deaths(+7d) = sqrt(sqrt(800)) x (800/20) = 212
I'm glad you worked that out for me!! Number is not nice though.
Hospital admissions ate not quite doubling in a week so it might not be as bad as I am thinking, but eitherway we look to be sleep walking into a crisis again.
Sorry if this is obvious and has already been answered - I lost interest and gave up on following covid news months ago, but it seems the deaths aren't rising as much as the number of cases this time round?
In March we were at circa 5k cases per day and this was quickly followed by 1k deaths with a few weeks lag.
Now we've been seeing cases rise since July and are at c.15k cases daily but only around 100 deaths. Even accounting for lag between cases and deaths it seems that deaths are much lower than expected if you extrapolate March's results.
Is there a reason for this? Possibilities i've conjured up include:
1. the virus has mutated to a less deadly form like most viruses tend to.
2. we are testing more people so have more confirmed cases now.
3. we know how to treat people better combined with vulnerable people now taking it more seriously and shielding properly.
4. young people have lost interest and are going out catching it without many direct health consequences.
5. i've seen rumblings on facebook about the tests having a ridiculously high false positive rate but this could just be conspiracy nutters doing what they do.
2.
In March we were at circa 5k cases per day
are at c.15k cases daily
We were only testing people who needed hospital care (gov closed down community testing to focus [ration] testing capacity on healthcare settings). The numbers are not comparable.