They are only finding a fraction of the people who are covid +ve anyway.
Going off the figures from a few weeks ago – 1/200 were in infected (ONS survey), so about 300k across the country. Assume 10 days of being infected, so ~30k/day becoming infected. T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%.
So whether TnT are finding 62% of 20%, or 100% of 20%, doesn’t really make much difference in the overall scheme of things.
Frankly, World Beating or complete farce, I don't think it matters all that much.
A study by Kings College has shown that whilst 60% of people say they would self-isolate if asked to (which is very low IMO) only about 11% of people who've been told they've been exposed to someone who had test positive are actually self-isolating, worst still of people who actually have symptoms, only 18% are self-isolating.
You couple that with the fact a lot of people are avoiding using the app, or checking into places through fear of being asked to isolate and you can see why the spread has picked up so much.
If those figures are correct, then we've got a virus where 80% of people don't know they have it, and of the people who do, 80% of them aren't isolating.
This only backs up my personal belief that the current regs, despite what tier you're in, or whether you're in Wales, Scotland or NI won't work. Whilst a thin majority of people appear to fear the spread of the virus more than the social and economic cost, when push comes to shove the vast majority of people will act selfishly and we have only stark choices left. We go back to a near total lock-down like we had in March, only it'll have to be twice as long or we ask everyone over the age of say, 60 and anyone who is high risk to shield, or we accept that people are going to die, probably twice as many as Spring and ask the NHS to do what it can to save the people who can be saved, which was the original plan, and I believe it's Boris's real plan.
We've been talking about a circuit breaker a lot in Wales, I think this will work, in terms of reducing numbers in the short-term, meaning fewer deaths until numbers should naturally start to fall again in Spring, but it's not a fix, it's a hard reduction thing. We might have missed the boat, but a 2 week break now, could half the number of dead over the winter, they're projecting 80k at the moment (bearing in mind that projection has been as high as 250k) it could be 40k. So there's a fun thought, two week lock down, and we'll still lose 40k people.
TTI has to reach about 80% of contacts within 48h or something in order to be able to make a significant dent in things. I'm not sure if I've got those numbers quite right but it is a performance level that is very challenging indeed for a competent well-organised state to achieve. On top of that, the contacts have to cooperate with the isolation, which requires material support for a large proportion of them with mortgages to pay and mouths to feed.
This shower of shit might as well not be trying for all the difference it would make. Well, in fact it's clear they aren't actually trying at all. Utterly farcical, no-one in charge gives a shiny shit and the press are hardly any better.
Elect a fraudulent clown, get a fraudulent clownshow. Who could have predicted?
two week lock down, and we’ll still lose 40k people.
2 week lock down and we save 40k people - always look on the bright side of life
2 week lock down and we save 40k people – always look on the bright side of life
Yeah, I tried to, but I couldn't bring myself to type it that way. It's too depressing really.
I think we've reached the point when the only thing left to hope for is a change in luck.
Andy Burnham has just made a statement.
He is most definitely not *ing about!
"Greater Manchester will stand firm. We are fighting back"
He stressed that ALL Greater Manchesters MP's and council leaders, from all parties, are unanimously behind the statement. To summarise: the north west is not going to have its economy sacrificed to save the economy of the south east. Unless you give us a full financial support package you can * right off with your Tier 3!
I'd love to see how that was received at number 10
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316752870818148352?s=20
We’ve been promoted to Tier 2 here in Erewash. Go us!
I am in Derby, so seems inevitable now we will join you in a week, around 150/100k appears to be the tipping point and we are at 124 currently
Unless you give us a full financial support package you can **** right off with your Tier 3!
The flip side of course being a higher number of infections outside these areas too. Sadly.
Unless you give us a full financial support package you can **** right off with your Tier 3!
Completely agree with everything Andy Burnham said.
And when he mentions unanimous support, that includes a few high ranking Tory MP's
Will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
This is actual madness, national measures have been put in place and a part of the country have gone nah jog on mate its not happening. How can a gov' get it so wrong. To quote Ed from a few weeks ago its "Incompetence and failure of governance" surly a vote of no confidence will come soon.
Surly its common sense to get this all squared away with the relevant people before you announce it to the public. the mind boggle. I cant believe people voted for these jokers.
Burnham was always an impressive politician and today is yet another example of that.
An articulate, factual, focussed speech.
Compare'n'contrast with johnson's bumbling, waffling; a walking fact free zone.
Both Starmer and Burnham showing johnson what leadership looks like.
I can imagine the atmosphere at No10 being akin to Hitler's bunker; will the 'leader' end it in the same way?
The track and trace Covid QR poster has been up over a week in my barber shop and only one person has scanned in. I'm asking folks about it and those that have downloaded it mostly have it switched off. As has been suggested nobody wants two weeks off work.
Burnham was always an impressive politician and today is yet another example of that.
An articulate, factual, focussed speech.
Yeah, he's done well. He's effectively saying "If you don't support us financially, I'll let people die" without sounding like a Kidnapper / Serial Killer.
But, I agree with him, we're in a recession, a deep one, technical or otherwise. Hardly a day goes by without another big employer announcing thousands of job losses and stress levels amongst the public are sky high. Telling people they have to close their business, miss work and all that without a safety net will be too much.
I'm as surprised as anyone when I say that public opinion in the UK seems to be switching towards a US style "every man for himself" approach.
It was quite clearly 'every man for himself' after Brexit and especially the 2019 election. Covid has just brought it into a much sharper focus. Which is sadly why day by day, I'm starting to feel more and more 'every man for himself' **** the rest, especially the boomers.
I’m as surprised as anyone when I say that public opinion in the UK seems to be switching towards a US style “every man for himself” approach.
I agree and it's been apparent for a while. I fear that this shift will suit Bojo and his cronies and just align people to voting tory in the future though. I sincerely hope those first time red wall voters remember how they've been treated by their elected Government next time around. It's just as likely that they'll think 'ooh, 1p off income tax. Great, I can afford a better iphone..'
He’s effectively saying “If you don’t support us financially, I’ll let people die” without sounding like a Kidnapper / Serial Killer.
No, he isn't; his message to johnson is...if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
Kind of how the conversation goes in hostage negotiations...
TTI has to reach about 80% of contacts within 48h or something in order to be able to make a significant dent in things.
As has been said many times, you can contact 100% of folk but if they choose not to isolate then the best call centre in the world won't make a dent.
I'm finding anything to do with Tory management of the pandemic too depressing. I'm gonna listen to Morrissey to cheer myself up a bit
So here we are then, Martial law or Civil War will be the outcomes. Or actually, there won't be an outcome because the governments too weak, so because they'll be nothing decisive, everyone will now just do what they think they should do and we are basically going to socialise through this until a vaccine appears, counting the dead piling up outside the hospitals that won't cope.
On the one hand I applaud Burnham for sticking up for his region, on the other its just given people strength to mutiny against government direction. Tier 3 won't be obeyed, and we have death threats going to Essex politicians over a move to Tier 2. The North cases will rise, Hospitals will be swamped, people will die en-masse.
Its a lost plot awaiting science to bail us out while many succumb in the meantime or someone manages to dislodge this government, take control and get the job done, which. Pah, I don't see it, and we haven't added Brexit to the mix yet.
As Churchill said, Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. Democracy and Capitalism has had its day in the UK, it'll move to dictatorship and communism with Leadership, Decision and state contribution - based on repaying COVID and Brexit damage - as a headline.
So come on Andy, you've stirred the pot now please lead the plate to the table - for everybody's sake.
It was quite clearly ‘every man for himself’ after Brexit and especially the 2019 election. Covid has just brought it into a much sharper focus. Which is sadly why day by day, I’m starting to feel more and more ‘every man for himself’ **** the rest, especially the boomers.
I got into a bit of trouble for it, but when the surge started I wrote this on FB.
"Hey Young People of the UK, don't forget the generation that gave you Tuition fees, Austerity and Brexit need you to stay home for 6 months to protect them from a virus that there's almost no chance will hurt you. I'm sure they they'll repay that sacrifice next election."
The red faced, "Traditional Tory" types who are dead against lockdowns and furlough payments etc, are the exact people Covid loves to kill. Sadly it likes to kill sweet old Men and Women too who only venture out for food etc.
Well, sitting here in Edinburgh & with no side to take in the North vs South debate, it feels to me like the North West of England have signed up to Donald Trump’s view of the virus. All that’s happening is you are putting off the inevitable tightening of restrictions with the resultant increase in death toll. Tief 3 or something similar is going to have to come in sooner or later. Don’t really know why you are celebrating, it’s your hospitals that are going to be full & Mancunians who are going to be dying.
You do know that Burnham and most GM MP's advocate a circuit breaker lockdown don't you?
You do know that Burnham and most GM MP’s advocate a circuit breaker lockdown don’t you?
What's their justifications for harming business and livelihoods in Cornwall which is not suffering from a rampant pandemic? (devil's advocate mode)
A region entering Tier3 on its own is likely to mean it staying in it all winter… going by what the government’s scientific advisors are saying … and without funding to support those working for closed businesses, the region is screwed over twice … jobs lost, incomes decimated, lives ruined AND an ongoing health emergency growing beyond what hospitals can deal with.
it feels to me like the North West of England have signed up to Donald Trump’s view of the virus.
What? Donald Trump's view of the virus is that I had the virus and beat it with REGENERON and amazing other million$ drug treatments. Everything is fine. There are no problems here, you can drink bleach to kill it.
Burnham is saying its he's not prepared to sacrifice the people he's responsible for to achieve the greater good. That's because it's totally within the government's remit to avoid that sacrifice, but they're just ignoring it. Burnham is doing his job, looking after his constituents. It's the government holding people hostage here, not Burnham.
I should qualify that by stating that it is conditional on financial support i.e. another round
of furlough payments.
Ignoring for a minute the cost-benefit analysis of this v letting it continue on its merry way, you need to look 4-5 weeks ahead in the less affected areas as 1. half term is upon us shortly (and Cornwall will surely see an influx of visitors) and 2. students will be on their way to the family home by mid December. We're a small well connected country in the main, this isn't Texas.
livelihoods in Cornwall
Close the Bristol region (cases rising there) and you shift activity west, and then you close that region and you shift activity west, and so on… waiting for each region to ‘blossom’ makes no sense at all. Contain the virus, and support those who are asked not to work, for a short period, ASAP, UK wide.
What’s their justifications for harming business and livelihoods in Cornwall which is not suffering from a rampant pandemic? (devil’s advocate mode)
Probably that if they can negotiate adequate support, then businesses can be protected and livelihoods saved in all regions. Don't know if they're supportive of a national lockdown or not. At this stage though, perhaps national does make more sense. If Cornwall is fully open and neighbouring regions fully closed, does that increase the risk of importing cases to Cornwall?
The rationale is that up here we’ve been under tier two since the beginning of August. And look where it’s got us
But as long as the south east is ok, they couldn’t give a **** about us.
They put us under restrictions and immediately forgot about us
So Andy is saying if the South East has to make the same scarifies as the north and (perish the thought) share the pain then the government might actually stop pissing about and sort their shit out over test and trace, financial support etc
That’s an opinion widely shared up here, and has won Andy massive support in vocalising it so forcefully
We know ‘our’ government couldn’t give a toss about us, so it’s quite refreshing to see a politician, particularly such an able one, actually stand up and represent us
Sorry, but I think they are playing politics to a particularly receptive gallery & it will just end up with more deaths. It feels horribly reminiscent of people voting Brexit & cutting off their noses to spite their faces.
So Andy is saying if the South East has to make the same scarifies as the north then the government might actually stop pissing about and sort their shit out over year and trace etc
The key bit you are missing from this is the relative rates of infection. That is why the North West is being expected to close down.
The SE isn't far behind the NW. Watch the infection rates climb higher in the next 7 days
Here's my fag pack analysis of how restrictions are going up here.
Looks like the initial restrictions are putting a mild dent in, recent restrictions I'll predict will be another wee bit of a dent in.
But it's obviously not enough.
They are allowing it to happen again from what I can see...
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Incompetence reigns.... tbh, if the restrictions work I'll be utterly amazed.
but looks like they are just slowing the upward trajectory, nothing more.
The SE isn’t far behind the NW. Watch the infection rates climb higher in the next 7 days
In which case I would expect them to go to Tier3. Time will tell. But the danger is if the NW 'fights this off' then that will just give an excuse for the SE not to to go up a Tier & effectively we will no longer be fighting the virus.
The NW want measures that work, and aren’t paid for by those within the region alone. The government is offering neither. It is proposing measures that won’t be enough (as stated by its own scientific advisors) with no path to coming out of them all winter, paid for with local jobs and household incomes.
Measures need to be:
1) effective
2) funded
3) temporary
From the last week or so of posts on here there are two themes.
1 - a harder lockdown, or a short circuit breaker is desirable.
2 - gov / Cummings using media / leaks / whatever as a national focus group.
Add the inability of enforcement of an unpopular lockdown and the path is clear; froth up enough hatred of the government that we are collectively begging to be locked down again.
I’m not sure if Burnham has helped or hindered this; but (as a young southerner for full disclosure) I agree with him in that saving lives now at the expense of the next few decades of Manchester’s economy is not the smart move.
Why is the highest Tier “Insufficient on its own” in the words os Chris Whitty? Shouldn’t a sensible Tier System have a top level you know will work?🤷🏼♂️
The key bit you are missing from this is the relative rates of infection. That is why the North West is being expected to close down.
Didn't hear him saying they opposed the lockdown, just that they refused to do it without adequate financial support. And I'm with Binners, if the situation was reversed geographically, financial support would be on the table without question. Like it was in March. Unless I've read it incorrectly, civilised countries like Germany are increasing their financial support at this time.
First lockdown was pretty well supported, as evidenced by the tracking data by Google/Apple. Fundamental to that success is the financial support. Without it, it's simply not possible for many to comply. So a lockdown without that support is doomed to fail. That probably supports the narrative though, so the tories can set fire to the north and then blame them for their own dead. Disgusting.
kelvin - add timely to your list above.
We know ‘our’ government couldn’t give a toss about us
Unfortunately a lot of people now seem to have whole heartedly bought into the ideology people are a consumable and expendable commodity. The governments always seem to have been of that view - something rotten at the heart of the establishment? It is the Eton care pathway - calling it a managed decline is being overly generous.
Off on a tangent - Lighthouse labs - sounding less shoe leather and more shoe string. We are just trying to do it all on the cheap.
I’m presently watching on north west news, Sir Graham Brady, head of the Tory backbench 1922 committee point out that every single MP and council leader, Tory and Labour are unanimously behind Andy on this
That’s not something I thought I would ever see
Everyone knows that if they put us in tier three then we’ll be in it until next year. They shoved us in tier two at the beginning of August then forgot about us. There was no plan to get us out of it then, there isn’t one now.
To do that with no financial support package will absolute decimate our economy which is on its knees already.
They can **** right off!
You’ve been able to feel the anger building up here for weeks now. Particularly among small business owners who would normally represent the bedrock Tory support. Even the Tory MPs in the region know it. Every single one of them has said so today. They need to hear it in Westminster and do something about it
The alternative is a re-rum of the mass unemployment and hopelessness of the 80s
Levelling up? Yeah, right. Not even Tory MPs are buying that shite any more
his message to johnson is…if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
That's not what was being shown in the BBC coverage, just the refusal to bow down - the context of "without adequate support" wasn't noticeable. Which rather leads to
its just given people strength to mutiny against government direction.
I absolutely support Burnham on this, but he needs to up his media game to overcome the way it comes across.
Matt Hancock has urged local leaders to "set aside party politics"...
There's more from little matty but Graham Brady might want to correct hancock; there is unity and unanimity across the political spectrum in the North.
It's time for sunak and the BoE to fire up the printing presses - well, not exactly as that's old school but money creation.
The notion that '...we can't afford...' is nonsense; the government can choose to afford whatever it wants. This has been commented on at length on the Coronanomics thread.
his message to johnson is…if you impose this without an adequate financial support package you, PM, will be responsible for the resulting deaths.
That’s not what was being shown in the BBC coverage, just the refusal to bow down – the context of “without adequate support” wasn’t noticeable
I haven't seen tv news but the full speech which I listened to didn't leave me in any doubt about his message to johnson.
Burnham's media game is strong as evidenced by the airtime he gets but he has no control over how BBC and, possibly, others will only use edited clips in news reports.
I’ve just watched a northern Tory MP stand up in Parliament and angrily describe the meeting this morning with semi-lucid houseplant Helen Whately as ‘a complete waste of time’ and said trying to communicate with the government was ‘like talking to a wall’
And that’s the Tory viewpoint from up here. So he was probably being generous
He certainly wasn’t ‘playing party politics’ as little Matty Handjob would have us believe
I haven’t seen tv news but the full speech which I listened to didn’t leave me in any doubt about his message to johnson.
The full speech was excellent. BBC news at 6 wasn't showing the full speech, just the "you can **** right off" bit. Which was the point I obviously failed to get across