With Russia's international power on the wane, most recently in Mali, coup rumours have been circulating since the beginning of March.
It's clear that President Putin has been pulling his protective details and air defences closer to him since late 2023, a response to Wagner Group advances, and reportedly he hasn't visited any military sites this year.
Some of the rumours are simply unsubstantiated and are attributed to a leaked report from a "European intelligence agency", which could be mischievous.
It's also clear that mobile internet shutdowns have been happening that protect the state from civil unrest far more than they protect the state from drone strikes,
The outages are part of Moscow’s broader campaign to cut off independent sources of information and horizontal networks of communication, designed to protect the regime from civil unrest and weed out foreign influences. Social media platforms and messaging apps such as YouTube, Instagram, Signal, Discord and Facebook have already been banned, with the country’s most popular messaging app Telegram reportedly being fully blocked from 1 April 2026, cutting off access for those without a virtual private network (VPN).
http://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/moscow-internet-blackouts-kremlin-tightens-its-grip-russias-digital-space
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75550
The thing that gives me nightmares about the 'rumors of a coup' stories that keep appearing is that regimes like Putin's often go out with a sudden burst of extreme violence while they desperately try to hold onto power and leave vacuums in their wake when/if they finally blow out.
...regimes like Putin's often go out with a sudden burst of extreme violence while they desperately try to hold onto power and leave vacuums in their wake when/if they finally blow out.
What sort of violence are you thinking of?
And when?
Of course starting to spread information that Putin is weak, that enemies circle, that public opinion is turning, that coup is possible all helps Ukraine. Irrelevant if true or not.
Maybe the future sees Ukraine regret seeing Putin topple and be replaced by a more violent replacement.
Maybe the future sees Russia so weakened that a change of leadership, complete with power struggles, further weakens Russia to the point they cannot continue the invasion of Ukraine.
What sort of violence are you thinking of?
Putin's regime is clearly already worried enough to have blocked internet access to everything but govt sources, despite the fact that most Russian are still expressing 'preference falsification' . Currently I think ordinary Russians are mostly afraid of their govt, that may not remain the case indefinitely, and I have no illusions that Putin will resort to violence to put down any 'trouble'.
I think it's becoming harder for ordinary citizens to ignore that Ukrainian drones are targeting infrastructure at will, and the border regions are seeing the effects close up with damaged houses and so on, after 4 years and countless thousands of deaths, I think there'll be a breaking point. There are increasing reports about Ukraine launching campaigns to reclaim Crimea, or at least preventing it from being used as a platform by the Russians to launch attacks into southern Ukraine, if that's successful - perhaps finally destroying a span of Kerch bridge, it might be the catalyst?
This was good last night, though pretty grim listening if you were hoping for some signs of optimism in either the Ukrainian or Iranian conflicts. I thought the guy talking about Russia was excellent.
The Unspun World, John Simpson 06.05.26
Enjoy
With Russia's international power on the wane, most recently in Mali
I does look as if Russia's "Africa Corps" (Wagner rebranded) is getting a real spanking in Mali. Another blow to Russia's prestige and attempts to gain influence and minerals in Africa.
I've just been chatting to a friend about thw victory parade thing and how Putin is threatening Ukraine with a severe bombing if they mess with it (whilst continuing to bomb Kiev, oh the irony) and was wondering what Ukraine could do to mess with them _without_ any kinetic effects.
Someone mentioned here about flying a drone over and dropping blue and yellow confetti, but how about combinging that with hacking the PA system and overlaying the sound of FPV drones? The UA cyber people are really good, but do you think they could do that in 24 hours? Does anyone have the phone number for CERT-UA?
The British did similar in 1943
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/raf-buzzed-germany-drown-out-nazi-broadcasts-180974966/
And in 42, AI overview
On June 12, 1942, RAF Flight Lieutenant Alfred Kitchener "Ken" Gatward and his navigator, Sergeant Gilbert "George" Fern, flew a Bristol Beaufighter nicknamed "the Mosquito" to occupied Paris. As part of a morale-boosting mission known as Operation Squabble, they successfully dropped a French tricolour flag directly onto the Arc de Triomphe.
Key Details of the Incident:
- The Goal: The mission was designed to boost French morale and show that the RAF could reach the heart of Nazi-occupied Paris.
- The Action: Gatward flew the Beaufighter at extremely low levels, strafed the German Navy headquarters, and navigated around the Eiffel Tower before dropping the flag.
- The Flag: The flag was dropped at 12:29 and successfully wrapped itself around the top of the monument, as shown in this propaganda leaflet illustration.
- The Aftermath: Despite intense anti-aircraft fire, both airmen returned safely to RAF Northolt.
A medium size drone, smuggled into the city to avoid defenses dropping gold and blue confetti over Red Square would a symbol hard for Russian media to suppress.
I don't think you need to get a drone into Moscow, just some speakers to create the sound of a drone would probably be enough to bring proceedings to a halt.
However I doubt they'll be anything like that, while it's tempting to humiliate Putin it risks alienating Muscovites which I don't think is Ukraines aim.
I feel that failure to do something will be used to show weakness in UKR leadership. They gave Pootin the choice and he chose to continue hostilities. UKR now have the capability to hit Russia where it can’t be ignored or suppressed so they should use it.
The bridge to Crimea would be a good target on Victory Day as well.
that too deniable!
Surely better than a drone explosion would be an RC/drone truck flying a Ukrainian flag through the parade....
President Zelensky is trolling and has issued a decree to leave Red Square alone and allow Russia to have their parade.
He doesn't say what he'll be doing outside of the four precise coordinates that presumably define the square http://www.president.gov.ua/documents/3742026-59389
President Zelensky is trolling and has issued a decree to leave Red Square alone and allow Russia to have their parade.
Quite rightly. He retains the moral high ground whilst allowing Russia to put on a pretty pathetic show.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8p4j2jzwwo
Putin coming to the conclusion he can no longer make meaningful gains and is coming under personal risk.
*I don't know obviously but...
"I think that the matter is coming to an end," he said, referring to the "special military operation" in Ukraine, while condemning Western support for the Kyiv government.
Good. Let's hope Putin comes to an end at the sharp bit of a revolver at the same time*
*War crimes trial would be preferable, but I don't think it would ever happen.
YouTube is full of video's suggesting that things are nearing a conclusion, lets hope they are true.
I hope so too but if it is russia offering terms for Ukraines surrender of territory which effectively rewards the aggressor, we've been here before.
Indeed you know that Putin will spin this in Russia's and his favour.
He will offer huge and unreasonable demands over territory, over lack of border presence in future on Ukraine side, on keeping all sorts of key infrastructure, in Ukraine not being allowed sovereignty etc.
Then he can claim Ukraine are unreasonable, tell everyone in Russia it's the Nazi's that caused this and he would have been peaceful if only they would surrender. He will hoodwink Trump and cronies into agreeing with him.
While Putin may now be looking for a way out, it's not going to come quickly, easily or be the end of the invasion that he started in Crimea on 2014.
YouTube is full of video's suggesting that things are nearing a conclusion, lets hope they are true.
The only glimmer isn't a conclusion, rather the possibility of talks.
“Now Putin himself says that he is finally ready for real meetings. We pushed him a little, and we have been preparing for meetings for a long time, we need to find a format. We need to end this war, reliably guarantee security,” President Zelensky quoted widely.
Russia hasn't shown any signs of peace and a conclusion, even during the "ceasefire".
Talks have been pushed with Russian demands and suggestions:
- the mediator should be former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder (google his Russian business interests)
- Zelensky must ring Putin
- only yesterday Yuri Ushakov (Kremlin aide to President Putin) said that Ukraine must withdraw from the Donbas
- etc.
The acid test for sincere talks will be the current PoW swap going ahead and a continuation of the May 9th-11th ceasefire with proper rules and monitoring processes in place.
None of that is going to happen 🤷🏻♂️
The acid test for sincere talks will be the current PoW swap going ahead and a continuation of the May 9th-11th ceasefire with proper rules and monitoring processes in place.
The ceasefire was ended by Russian strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv.
The talk of "conclusion" was partly for the benefit of the home-crowd following the May 9th parade, partly for President Trump and partly to discourage wavering "western" leaders from providing further support to Ukraine.
The 1000 PoW swap has a reasonable chance of going ahead as happened 12 months ago when it was negotiated through Turkiye. I'm not a betting man though and it will take time to arrange; there was never a chance of it happening during the ceasefire period
According to a variety of open-sources, Russia is building up forces in the Pokrovsk area under cover of aerial bombing and drone strikes.
Huliaipole is also subject to pressure, although Ukraine's forces are better able to deal with the level they're subjected to.
It's reported that Russia's bomber fleet is using large amounts of engine service life by flying from their farthest eastern bases to Ukraine and aircraft have had their bomb loads reduced to account for this. Fuel loads are clearly less negotiable
Russia used heavy bombardments during the winter period around the Orikhiv area, which is further south, but appears to have given up there in the face of heavy Ukrainian defences and Russian losses of territory.
Other areas under strain are further north, particularly Lyman, which would give access to the northern end of the "fortress belt" and Kostyantynivka at its southern end.
Russian forces recently advanced north of Pokrovsk while continuing to rely on drones and airstrikes. Geolocated footage published on May 10 shows Ukrainian forces conducting an airstrike on a Russian-occupied building in central Rodynske, indicating that there are likely no Ukrainian positions in the area. An officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on May 11 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale airstrikes against Ukrainian forces with KAB guided glide bombs. The officer added that Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian heavy armored vehicles have forced Russian forces to rely on drones to achieve most of their frontline missions." http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2026/
Russia lost territory in April
Russia lost territory in April
Can you expand a little on the points that you make?
Your one-liners are sometimes difficult to interpret in the current context of this war 🙂 Thanks
They also need a link or two to whatever source you are using for such information.
War has resumed in Ukraine. President Trump is ignoring the obvious,
"Trump said the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine is “very close,” echoing Vladimir Putin’s claim that the conflict is nearing an end. His remarks came after a US-brokered three-day ceasefire, which did not hold entirely, expired. Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal to extend the pause and resumed large-scale attacks, according to Ukrainian officials."
"Russian strikes have hit facilities linked to major US companies in Ukraine, including Cargill, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Mondelez, Philip Morris, Bunge and Flex Ltd., according to the New York Times. Company representatives and business leaders have raised concerns with US officials that the attacks may be deliberate, while Washington has avoided publicly condemning the strikes disclosed by Ukraine this year."
"Ukraine was once again raised during a Senate hearing on the Pentagon’s FY2027 budget request, as Senator Jeanne Shaheen pressed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and senior Pentagon officials over a missing spend plan for $400 million in congressionally approved funding intended for Ukraine. Shaheen also questioned why Washington is easing pressure on Moscow while Russia aids Iran and continues its war against Ukraine."
"Make no mistake: Russia is targeting Americans in the Middle East, Ukraine, and around the world. Instead of taking action, @POTUS (President Trump) is relaxing sanctions on Russia and refusing to support Ukraine. It's unacceptable and invites further aggression against Americans." Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. TwitterX March 6th
And a Trump quote, "You know, they (Ukraine) are losing territory, but it’s at a big cost to Russia and to them. And I like [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky. I’ve always sort of gotten along with him, other than the one moment in the White House, which I thought was a little aggressive on his behalf."
Sources:
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75985
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75988
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/75984
Stefan Korshak round-up. There's something for all three services:
- The front – The battle of Yablunivka – April 19
- Azov is back
- Red Square parade “allowed” to go ahead – This is so epic it might just make the Western news
- Another flight of the Flamingos
- More Russian naval embarrassment
- Making Ukrainian F-16 pilots, and giving them stuff (“more than 50 Ukrainian pilots” have completed the UK’s early-stage English-language and elementary flying course, which is designed to prepare them for more advanced fast-jet training abroad.)
- Russia bombarding Ukraine
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/75977
Its amazing how the Oval office looks increasingly likely that big gold Kremlin room with variable table lengths. Full of gold, like a rat with a gold tooth.
Full of gold, like a rat with a gold tooth.
When you need to disguise the fact the the main resident is a dementia patient and forgets where he is, nothing says "subtle" more than printing the name of the office in 8 inch high gold lettering and prit-sticking to the wall.
As if anyone needs to ask "which one of the world famous rooms in this world famous building is is my office again?"
Pretty horrific wave of strikes in ukraine overnight, Interception rates dropped massively.
Looks like all teh interceptors being diverted to the middle east has left Ukraine dangerously exposed
Pretty horrific wave of strikes in ukraine overnight, Interception rates dropped massively.
Looks like all teh interceptors being diverted to the middle east has left Ukraine dangerously exposed
Interception rates are on a par with concurrent monthly rates. The situation in the middle-east hasn't hugely altered things simply because Ukraine was never supplied adequately.
It's believed that Ukraine has received 600 Patriot missiles over a three-year period, v 250 missiles launched against Ukraine during winter '25-'26 alone. Some of the 600 missiles won't be the optimal PAC3-MSE versions
How inadequate 600 Patriot interceptors were over three years is shown by the fact that just over winter 2025-2026, russia launched approximately 250 ballistic, aeroballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine according to Air Force statistics.
At the same time, asset shortage led Ukrainian Patriot operators to be forced to expend only one MSE missile per ballistic target engagement. Specifically this is clearly visible in video from the 96th Kyiv Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade intercepting russian ballistic missiles in February 2026.
Patriot isn't the only game in town, but it is the best solution for ballistic missiles.
The US and Europe are both accelerating missile production
Pretty horrific wave of strikes in ukraine overnight, Interception rates dropped massively.
Looks like all teh interceptors being diverted to the middle east has left Ukraine dangerously exposed
Is this not more likely a case that Russia used the "ceasefire" to re-stock and line up a particularly brutal few days of strikes?
A bit more detail on the missile strike numbers for 13th-14th May. I think on a quick read-through that it's about right, correct me if not.
Russia is leveraging allies in Moldova and Belarus by using their borders to vary the direction of strikes to overwhelm Ukraine's missile defences. Russia is now launching strikes throughout the 24 hour period.
Previously it would be mainly overnight using the cover of darkness, giving Ukraine's defenders time to rest and restock during the day.
Russia is also upgrading its drones and UMPK bombs from four to twelve element Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA) aerials to better counteract Ukraine's electronic warfare. Google it if you want more information, but this is "western" levels of tech, although we're now looking at 16-element CRPA
President Zelensky promised last week that Ukraine would act in a “mirror-like manner.” I doubt that he will order criminal strikes, but I have no doubt that Russia will feel Ukraine's reply to their attacks.
“In total, during the waves of massive attacks on May 13 and 14, the Russians used 1,567 drones and 56 missiles of various types. Our drone interception rate reached 94%. The missile interception rate was 73%. The key challenge is ballistic missiles and the protection of thousands of rear infrastructure facilities and our cities,” Zelensky said, noting that the Russian attack was the first item discussed during the meeting.
AND
Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Russian forces largely concentrated the strikes against Kyiv City in an effort to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned on the evening of May 13 that Russian forces intended to launch missiles against Ukraine that evening following earlier efforts to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukrainian forces downed about 94 percent of the Russian drones and 73 percent of the missiles from the evening of May 12 to the morning of May 14 despite this effort to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukraine's interception stats generally have a "busy" period 1830 to 0800. This is my interpretation of the numbers.
Overnight 12th-13th May strikes were confined to Shahed and similar types. 111 of 139 destroyed/jammed:
"As of 08:00 [Ukrainian] air defence forces had destroyed or jammed 111 Shahed, Gerbera and Italmas loitering munitions and Parodiya decoy drones in the country's north, south and east. Hits by 20 UAVs had been recorded at 13 locations and the fall of downed aerial assets (debris) at four locations."
On 13 May, from 08:00 to 18:30. 710 of 753 destroyed/jammed:
...the enemy attacked with 753 Shahed-type attack UAVs, including jet-powered variants, Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya-type decoy drones. Taking into account the overnight attack of 139 UAVs, more than 892 enemy drones of these types were launched during the day." (overnight 12th into the evening of the 13th)
"As of 18:30, early reports indicate that air defence shot down or jammed 710 Russian drones of various types across all oblasts of the country.
Strikes by 36 attack UAVs were recorded, and downed drones or debris fell at 26 locations."
Overnight 13-14 May until 0800. 652 of 690 destroyed/jammed PLUS 41 missiles of 56 missiles launched:
"As of 08:00 [Ukrainian] air defence forces had destroyed or jammed 693 aerial assets, namely 41 missiles and 652 drones:
29 Kh-101 cruise missiles
12 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
652 drones of various types.Hits by 15 missiles and 23 UAVs have been recorded at 24 locations and the fall of downed aerial assets (debris) at 18 locations.
The attack is ongoing. Several new groups of attack drones have entered Ukraine's airspace. Do not ignore air-raid warnings!
Sources:
http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4123364-president-zelensky-94-of-russian-drones-73-of-missiles-intercepted-during-twoday-attack.html
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2026/
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/13/8034447/
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/13/8034546/
http://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/14/8034603/
Is this not more likely a case that Russia used the "ceasefire" to re-stock and line up a particularly brutal few days of strikes?Pretty horrific wave of strikes in ukraine overnight, Interception rates dropped massively.
Looks like all teh interceptors being diverted to the middle east has left Ukraine dangerously exposed
There are identified patterns correlating to certain events.
There's little doubt that both sides used the "ceasefire" to advantage, moving resources around, etc. That was partly because the agreement didn't have any rules attached. Even the "ceasefire" bit was ignored in part, but without monitoring who knows who did what to whom?
Red Square wasn't struck and neither were Ukraine's government buildings, which are about the only certainties from the ceasfire
Russia is tightening up on the missile strike information available to the public
"The Moscow City Anti-Terrorist Commission adopted a regulation on May 12 prohibiting government authorities, media organizations, emergency services, and citizens from disseminating information about strikes prior to official publications from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) or from official Moscow Mayor and Government sources. The new Moscow City regulation is consistent with the Kremlin’s ongoing censorship campaign aimed at restricting the spread of evidence of successful Ukrainian strikes."
"Recent Ukrainian strikes against western Russia have demonstrated Russia’s inability to reliably defend its rear against drone and missile strikes, a reality that the Kremlin is trying to cover up by censoring the information space."> http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2026/
"Russia has reportedly been falling behind on production plans for ballistic missiles."
"Militarnyi reported that downed missile debris from late 2025 and early 2026 shows that Russia was launching recently produced missiles, suggesting that Russia had not met its production plans, possibly due to the combined effects of sanctions pressure and Ukrainian strikes against the Russian defense industrial base."> http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2026/
US Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor (NSA), Marco Rubio, suggested that Russia's forces are suffering a 5:1 attrition rate against the figure for Ukraine's forces.
Open-source reporting by the BBC, Mediazona and others suggested more than 3:1. That has to be unsustainable, particularly when Ukraine estimates that dead and injured Russian forces now outnumber recruitment rates.
There are possible explanations for the difference:
- Rubio wrongly remembered the ratio
- The US has intelligence that isn't open-sourced (he is the NSA, after all)
- Open-sources are gradually being closed down by Russia; latest sources include court cases to determine death. probate and the state's need to pay agreed compensation on death
“The Ukrainian armed forces are the strongest, most powerful armed forces in all of Europe, just to be clear, right now,” Rubio said. “Obviously because of a lot of the assistance they’ve gotten, but also because of the battlefield experience that they’ve gained.”
Secretary Rubio said Russia was suffering far greater battlefield losses than Ukraine, estimating that Moscow was losing “five times as many soldiers a month” as Kyiv.
“The Russians are losing 15 to 20,000 soldiers a month dead, not injured, dead,” he said. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/76166
Russia has also been subject to diplomatic complaints from Hungary about strikes on the ethnic-Hungarian Transcarpathia region of Ukraine.
"Hungary has summoned Russia’s ambassador over strikes on Ukraine, marking a sharp shift from its long-standing pro-Kremlin stance under Viktor Orbán. The move comes as new Prime Minister Peter Magyar seeks to realign Budapest with the EU while balancing continued reliance on Russian energy. The decision signals a potential foreign policy reset, though major economic and political constraints remain."
“I repeated that the Hungarian government deeply condemns the Russian attack and we expect an immediate halt to attacks against civilians,” (Hungarian Foreign Minister Anita) Orbán (no relation) said after the meeting.
She added that strikes on Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region were “completely unacceptable” for Hungary. http://www.kyivpost.com/post/76182
Russia has placed former UK Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, on its "wanted" list (widely reported)
