With Russia's international power on the wane, most recently in Mali, coup rumours have been circulating since the beginning of March.
It's clear that President Putin has been pulling his protective details and air defences closer to him since late 2023, a response to Wagner Group advances, and reportedly he hasn't visited any military sites this year.
Some of the rumours are simply unsubstantiated and are attributed to a leaked report from a "European intelligence agency", which could be mischievous.
It's also clear that mobile internet shutdowns have been happening that protect the state from civil unrest far more than they protect the state from drone strikes,
The outages are part of Moscow’s broader campaign to cut off independent sources of information and horizontal networks of communication, designed to protect the regime from civil unrest and weed out foreign influences. Social media platforms and messaging apps such as YouTube, Instagram, Signal, Discord and Facebook have already been banned, with the country’s most popular messaging app Telegram reportedly being fully blocked from 1 April 2026, cutting off access for those without a virtual private network (VPN).
KYIVPOST.COM The thing that gives me nightmares about the 'rumors of a coup' stories that keep appearing is that regimes like Putin's often go out with a sudden burst of extreme violence while they desperately try to hold onto power and leave vacuums in their wake when/if they finally blow out.
...regimes like Putin's often go out with a sudden burst of extreme violence while they desperately try to hold onto power and leave vacuums in their wake when/if they finally blow out.
What sort of violence are you thinking of?
And when?
Of course starting to spread information that Putin is weak, that enemies circle, that public opinion is turning, that coup is possible all helps Ukraine. Irrelevant if true or not.
Maybe the future sees Ukraine regret seeing Putin topple and be replaced by a more violent replacement.
Maybe the future sees Russia so weakened that a change of leadership, complete with power struggles, further weakens Russia to the point they cannot continue the invasion of Ukraine.
What sort of violence are you thinking of?
Putin's regime is clearly already worried enough to have blocked internet access to everything but govt sources, despite the fact that most Russian are still expressing 'preference falsification' . Currently I think ordinary Russians are mostly afraid of their govt, that may not remain the case indefinitely, and I have no illusions that Putin will resort to violence to put down any 'trouble'.
I think it's becoming harder for ordinary citizens to ignore that Ukrainian drones are targeting infrastructure at will, and the border regions are seeing the effects close up with damaged houses and so on, after 4 years and countless thousands of deaths, I think there'll be a breaking point. There are increasing reports about Ukraine launching campaigns to reclaim Crimea, or at least preventing it from being used as a platform by the Russians to launch attacks into southern Ukraine, if that's successful - perhaps finally destroying a span of Kerch bridge, it might be the catalyst?
This was good last night, though pretty grim listening if you were hoping for some signs of optimism in either the Ukrainian or Iranian conflicts. I thought the guy talking about Russia was excellent.
The Unspun World, John Simpson 06.05.26
Enjoy
With Russia's international power on the wane, most recently in Mali
I does look as if Russia's "Africa Corps" (Wagner rebranded) is getting a real spanking in Mali. Another blow to Russia's prestige and attempts to gain influence and minerals in Africa.
I've just been chatting to a friend about thw victory parade thing and how Putin is threatening Ukraine with a severe bombing if they mess with it (whilst continuing to bomb Kiev, oh the irony) and was wondering what Ukraine could do to mess with them _without_ any kinetic effects.
Someone mentioned here about flying a drone over and dropping blue and yellow confetti, but how about combinging that with hacking the PA system and overlaying the sound of FPV drones? The UA cyber people are really good, but do you think they could do that in 24 hours? Does anyone have the phone number for CERT-UA?
The British did similar in 1943
https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/filer/03/e0/03e0e8e0-797e-4c68-a49a-5e73d44f3894/buzz_kill.jp g" rel="nofollow" >
SMITHSONIANMAG.COM And in 42, AI overview
On June 12, 1942, RAF Flight Lieutenant Alfred Kitchener "Ken" Gatward and his navigator, Sergeant Gilbert "George" Fern, flew a Bristol Beaufighter nicknamed "the Mosquito" to occupied Paris. As part of a morale-boosting mission known as Operation Squabble, they successfully dropped a French tricolour flag directly onto the Arc de Triomphe.
Key Details of the Incident:
- The Goal: The mission was designed to boost French morale and show that the RAF could reach the heart of Nazi-occupied Paris.
- The Action: Gatward flew the Beaufighter at extremely low levels, strafed the German Navy headquarters, and navigated around the Eiffel Tower before dropping the flag.
- The Flag: The flag was dropped at 12:29 and successfully wrapped itself around the top of the monument, as shown in this propaganda leaflet illustration.
- The Aftermath: Despite intense anti-aircraft fire, both airmen returned safely to RAF Northolt.
A medium size drone, smuggled into the city to avoid defenses dropping gold and blue confetti over Red Square would a symbol hard for Russian media to suppress.
I don't think you need to get a drone into Moscow, just some speakers to create the sound of a drone would probably be enough to bring proceedings to a halt.
However I doubt they'll be anything like that, while it's tempting to humiliate Putin it risks alienating Muscovites which I don't think is Ukraines aim.
I feel that failure to do something will be used to show weakness in UKR leadership. They gave Pootin the choice and he chose to continue hostilities. UKR now have the capability to hit Russia where it can’t be ignored or suppressed so they should use it.
The bridge to Crimea would be a good target on Victory Day as well.
that too deniable!
Surely better than a drone explosion would be an RC/drone truck flying a Ukrainian flag through the parade....
President Zelensky is trolling and has issued a decree to leave Red Square alone and allow Russia to have their parade.
He doesn't say what he'll be doing outside of the four precise coordinates that presumably define the square
President Zelensky is trolling and has issued a decree to leave Red Square alone and allow Russia to have their parade.
Quite rightly. He retains the moral high ground whilst allowing Russia to put on a pretty pathetic show.
BBC.CO.UK
Putin coming to the conclusion he can no longer make meaningful gains and is coming under personal risk.
*I don't know obviously but...
"I think that the matter is coming to an end," he said, referring to the "special military operation" in Ukraine, while condemning Western support for the Kyiv government.
Good. Let's hope Putin comes to an end at the sharp bit of a revolver at the same time*
*War crimes trial would be preferable, but I don't think it would ever happen.
YouTube is full of video's suggesting that things are nearing a conclusion, lets hope they are true.
I hope so too but if it is russia offering terms for Ukraines surrender of territory which effectively rewards the aggressor, we've been here before.
Indeed you know that Putin will spin this in Russia's and his favour.
He will offer huge and unreasonable demands over territory, over lack of border presence in future on Ukraine side, on keeping all sorts of key infrastructure, in Ukraine not being allowed sovereignty etc.
Then he can claim Ukraine are unreasonable, tell everyone in Russia it's the Nazi's that caused this and he would have been peaceful if only they would surrender. He will hoodwink Trump and cronies into agreeing with him.
While Putin may now be looking for a way out, it's not going to come quickly, easily or be the end of the invasion that he started in Crimea on 2014.
YouTube is full of video's suggesting that things are nearing a conclusion, lets hope they are true.
The only glimmer isn't a conclusion, rather the possibility of talks.
“Now Putin himself says that he is finally ready for real meetings. We pushed him a little, and we have been preparing for meetings for a long time, we need to find a format. We need to end this war, reliably guarantee security,” President Zelensky quoted widely.
Russia hasn't shown any signs of peace and a conclusion, even during the "ceasefire".
Talks have been pushed with Russian demands and suggestions:
- the mediator should be former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder (google his Russian business interests)
- Zelensky must ring Putin
- only yesterday Yuri Ushakov (Kremlin aide to President Putin) said that Ukraine must withdraw from the Donbas
- etc.
The acid test for sincere talks will be the current PoW swap going ahead and a continuation of the May 9th-11th ceasefire with proper rules and monitoring processes in place.
None of that is going to happen 🤷🏻♂️
The acid test for sincere talks will be the current PoW swap going ahead and a continuation of the May 9th-11th ceasefire with proper rules and monitoring processes in place.
The ceasefire was ended by Russian strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv.
The talk of "conclusion" was partly for the benefit of the home-crowd following the May 9th parade, partly for President Trump and partly to discourage wavering "western" leaders from providing further support to Ukraine.
The 1000 PoW swap has a reasonable chance of going ahead as happened 12 months ago when it was negotiated through Turkiye. I'm not a betting man though and it will take time to arrange; there was never a chance of it happening during the ceasefire period
UKRINFORM.UA According to a variety of open-sources, Russia is building up forces in the Pokrovsk area under cover of aerial bombing and drone strikes.
Huliaipole is also subject to pressure, although Ukraine's forces are better able to deal with the level they're subjected to.
It's reported that Russia's bomber fleet is using large amounts of engine service life by flying from their farthest eastern bases to Ukraine and aircraft have had their bomb loads reduced to account for this. Fuel loads are clearly less negotiable
Russia used heavy bombardments during the winter period around the Orikhiv area, which is further south, but appears to have given up there in the face of heavy Ukrainian defences and Russian losses of territory.
Other areas under strain are further north, particularly Lyman, which would give access to the northern end of the "fortress belt" and Kostyantynivka at its southern end.
Russian forces recently advanced north of Pokrovsk while continuing to rely on drones and airstrikes. Geolocated footage published on May 10 shows Ukrainian forces conducting an airstrike on a Russian-occupied building in central Rodynske, indicating that there are likely no Ukrainian positions in the area. An officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on May 11 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale airstrikes against Ukrainian forces with KAB guided glide bombs. The officer added that Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian heavy armored vehicles have forced Russian forces to rely on drones to achieve most of their frontline missions."
UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Russia lost territory in April
Russia lost territory in April
Can you expand a little on the points that you make?
Your one-liners are sometimes difficult to interpret in the current context of this war 🙂 Thanks
They also need a link or two to whatever source you are using for such information.
