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A couple of points about the Stefan Korshak round-up (links below):
"The Russians duly put on the internet video of a “battalion” command post with mobile phones, documents, computers, military equipment and so forth abandoned inside. It doesn’t look fake and it’s pretty clear the Ukrainians that were in there left in a very big hurry."
I'd written this off as a fake at the time, although he says not and he has human sources that I don't, so I'll bow to his knowledge.
It doesn't make sense that Russians would publish the fact that they'd taken "mobile phones, documents, computers, military equipment and so forth" when they could use them to monitor and disrupt Ukraine's operations.
I'll settle for video of a Ukrainian bunker after Russian forces had added a bit of value to the images.
Importantly, he thinks that Hulyaipole isn't destined to go the same way as Siviersk, which is a relief.
Hulyaipole would give Russian Forces an axis onto the ends of Ukraine's excavated defences and allow them to run parallel rather than attacking directly onto them as is intended
It's interesting that units receiving support from outside official military channels seem to have better morale, which demonstrates an area for development for Ukraine's ZSU (cyrillic ЗСУ), aka Armed Forces Ukraine (AFU)
He also talks about the possible shortage of Russian missiles (we've been here before) and increases in European and Ukrainian 155mm artillery shell production that currently exceeds that of the US.
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-7-2026-day-1413a-sloppy-defense
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-7-2026-day-1413b-continued
The pace of Russias advance is literally slower than a snails.
Ukraine is on a roll - 4 more tankers hit in the Black Sea
Looks like the internet jumped the gun on this one! Only 2 confirmed tankers hit. Most interestingly- Greek owned. Greece has been a major enabler of the shadow fleet, so maybe a warning shot to them ???
Attacking NATO-country ships carrying non-Russian crude may be a strategy that comes back to haunt them.
Or a Russian false flag op.
Attacking NATO-country ships carrying non-Russian crude may be a strategy that comes back to haunt them.
This.
However, it's potentially massively-nuanced. No serious damage, no injuries and no accusations attached to Ukraine, who haven't fessed up.
Kazakhstan has alternative export routes that don't involve payments to Russia, but they're more costly, e.g. cross the Caspian Sea into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline between Azerbaijan and the Med
Most interestingly- Greek owned.
Turkiye continues to complain about attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, but relations with Greece have always been fraught.
But, there was a bit of a thaw in 2025, but the C in BTC is Ceyhan, Turkiye, so they'll be paid, but who knows? 🤔
Greece has been a major enabler of the shadow fleet, so maybe a warning shot to them ???
Ooops, missed this bit, this too.
The prospect of peace through Russia's oil exports being curtailed are (almost) universal grounds for forgiveness
Greece has been very naughty, transferring Russian oil to their ships in the ocean, avoiding sanctions. Shocking behaviour!
Will it blow back on Ukraine? Maybe the rest of Europe will think that Greece had it coming for being sanction busting ******s ?? False flag seems a stretch, as this harms Russia a lot.
Greece has been very naughty,
"Greece"? Sounds like a football team. Who are you actually talking about?
An opinion piece by Inal Sherip, a former minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in exile, on the possibility of clan warfare within Russia's leadership. I suggest that you read the full article, which is about Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov (link below).
It's interesting because Kadyrov is a Russian asset who is now ill in Moscow, reportedly with acute pancreatic necrosis and kidney problems.
Since the linked article was written, Kadyrov's chosen successor, his son Adam Kadyrov, was reportedly involved in a serious car crash yesterday and is being air-lifted to a Russian hospital.
"If the FSB has managed to break Kadyrov’s resistance and lock Daudov into the premiership, the probability of a power transfer to him rises sharply: The security services almost never invest in “temporary” figures. By installing Daudov, the FSB does not merely gain a manageable republic – it shifts the balance in Moscow, prying from Zolotov’s* hands one of his important instruments."
"That is why a “small” black swan – something like Kadyrov’s death – can become not merely an issue of cadre selection but a trigger that sets off a chain reaction: clan warfare, redistribution of resources, collapse of the accustomed balance, and – over time – the beginning of the disintegration of Putin’s system itself." https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67997
I believe that President Putin is too strong for this to be a reality, but that's only my opinion.
*Viktor Zolotov is Commander of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), a military unit created by President Putin. Zolotov is hugely trusted as responsible for the security of President Boris Yeltsin and now Putin.
Some Rosgvardiya units invaded Ukraine during the failed three-day SMO, but in a supporting role. Zolotov was one of the few leaders who came out of the SMO well, simply because Rosgvardiya is about the security of the Kremlin and wasn't involved either in intelligence or its planning.
He later benefitted from the chaos caused by Prigozhin’s mutiny with an increase in the strength of the Russian National Guard, while other branches of security (e.g. FSB) and military operations were still jockeying to regain influence following the failure of the SMO.
President Macron and PM Meloni want to re-open dialogue with Russia on Ukraine, a move welcomed by Russia.
Yvette Cooper has refused to engage until she sees signs of Russia welcoming peace.
President Macron wasted six months until September 2022 attempting the diplomatic route with President Putin.
"The Kremlin said Friday it considered calls by some European states to resume dialogue with Russia as “positive”, after French and Italian leaders called for re-engagement with Moscow on Ukraine." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68198
Russia's finances reportedly continue to erode, not helped by China's 25-year contract with Russia’s Inter RAO to buy electricity falling apart after only 14 years.
It says something about the relationship when China feels under no contractual pressure and can back out halfway through; they clearly don't expect to get hit for compensation, despite not meeting even minimum agreements for the supply.
I wonder if losing O&G production to Ukraine's attacks has caused the price of Russian electricity generation in the east to rise above that of China's domestic industry.
"Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Russian oil and gas revenues in 2025 dropped to a five-year low amid declining gas exports due to Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices. The Russian Ministry of Finance stated on January 15 that Russia’s federal budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles (roughly $108 billion USD) in oil and gas taxes in 2025, which Bloomberg noted is a decrease of 24 percent compared to 2024. Bloomberg noted that Russia’s federal budget received fewer rubles for each barrel produced and sold in 2025 due to the strengthened ruble. The strengthened ruble increased Russia’s purchasing power on the global market, making parallel imports cheaper amid Western sanctions, but had adverse effects on Russia’s export profits. Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30 percent of Russia’s total federal revenues in 2024 but fell 22 percent year on year in 2025. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged in September 2025 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales to fall by roughly 30 percent in 2026."
"Russia has also gradually depleted its liquid reserves over the last four years of its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Russia has spent more than half of its sovereign wealth fund to bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending and has turned to expensive borrowing that will take years to pay back."
"Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russian state business outlet Kommersant reported on January 16 that the PRC halted electricity purchases from Russia as of January 1 after Russian export prices rose above domestic Chinese prices for the first time. Kommersant stated that the PRC refused to purchase the minimum contracted volumes under its long-term agreement, despite the contract running through 2037."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2026/
Stronger action from Europe on the "shadow fleet". Rather than looking at what the law says that they can't do, politicians have decided to run with the letter of the law and what they can do.
Germany has the Kadet Trench in its waters, a channel of deep water in the otherwise fairly shallow Baltic Sea that it can exploit to good effect
"German media outlet Tagesschau said German police dispatched a helicopter to Tavian and asked to see the vessel’s registration document.
It was after the federal police ascertained that the tanker was sailing under a false flag and had forged its identity that it was ordered not to enter German waters, and subsequently made the U-turn, Tagesschau reported.""Technically the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea allows boarding of stateless vessels. However, political concerns regarding Russian reprisals in the Baltic have allowed a steady of flow of tankers with no official certification to sail unchecked beyond requests to provide known fake certificates."
"Preventing Tavian from entering German waters in this case was sticking to the letter of UNCLOS. Rather than being hindered by the law, Peters said Germany was now being empowered by it."
"But Germany could have a particularly interesting role, Peters said, given that the Kadet Trench, a channel of deep water in the otherwise fairly shallow Baltic Sea that most tankers have to use on their way in or out of the Kattegat, runs partly through its waters."
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156094/Growing-stateless-shadow-fleet-transits-sparks-stronger-action-from-Europe
I think that Hulyaipole is now at a late stage, although a change in the weather to allow drone operations will be helpful to the defenders. Reinforcements from the Sumy area have already been deployed
Unfortunately, despite additional reinforcements gained from the partial withdrawal from Myrnohrad, Hulyaipole is again looking a bit dodgy for Ukraine.
Russian forces seem to be building both there and towards Pokrovsk, another dodgy part of the front
ta timba
not sure how true this is, but Macron said this week that France was now supplying 2/3rds of Ukraines intel via intercepts
. https://bsky.app/profile/aphclarkson.bsky.social/post/3mcp5rpw3hk2k
A new low if true 🙁
not sure how true this is, but Macron said this week that France was now supplying 2/3rds of Ukraines intel via intercepts
Macron might be exaggerating un peut,
The comments are in contrast to Kyrylo Budanov, who was appointed head of Zelenskiy's office and is the former chief of Ukraine's military intelligence, who said in December that Kyiv was critically dependent on Washington for intelligence ranging from satellite imagery to early warning systems after ballistic missile launches.Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency declined to comment.A French defence ministry official declined to comment specifically on the president's assertions, but said much of the intelligence was of technical origin. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/macron-says-france-now-providing-two-thirds-intelligence-ukraine-2026-01-15/
"Ukrainian intell services sent false strategic info to US intell services ... and observed
that the information had been relayed to
RUS and was used by RUS forces."
Shades of Wagatha Christie !!
"Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on January 23 that a source close to the Kremlin and the ruling United Russia party stated that the Kremlin is working to find a solution to possible succession problems in Chechnya against the backdrop of reports that Kadyrov is seriously ill and that his son and possible successor, 18-year-old Adam, was recently in a car accident." (reported ^^)
"The Kremlin may not have sufficient forces to handle any future unrest emerging from internal Chechen power struggles while also maintaining its current deployments in Ukraine. The Kremlin is likely to prioritize finding a solution to Chechen succession issues that avoids the potential for regional unrest."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-23-2026/
Full article from the NY Post, which I guess was embargoed for a week
New York Post: Nearly four years into war, Russia has gained little — and Ukraine keeps bouncing back, despite some 2 million draft dodgers
Op Ed, Jan 17, 2026
https://understandingwar.org/newsroom/new-york-post-nearly-four-years-into-war-russia-has-gained-little-and-ukraine-keeps-bouncing-back-despite-some-2-million-draft-dodgers/
The Zampotech Charity repairs and donates vehicles to Ukraine's armed forces.
Ihor Omelyanovich started the work in 2014 with ambulance conversions, went to charity status in 2022 and now provides a frontline repair and mobile tyre fitting service, which is pretty impressive
Their latest project is recycling the Chinese-made MD550 engines from crashed Russian Shahed drones. Several engines and a couple of weeks later they have around £10k worth of working engine, but you'll need Facebook to see more on that specific project
Kinda belongs here due to the European Russia sections but involves everywhere really. 2026 US Defence Strategy
But you know....
We will engage in good faith with our neighbors,
from Canada to our partners in Central and South America
Stefan Korshak posts:
Good round up of events in Jan. 22, 2026 - Day 1,428 - Bombardment and Shock, Frozen Front, Swamp Economy.
Various realities uncovered, e.g. 600,000 people didn't leave Kyiv, they just switched their phones off to save battery life, etc. https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/jan-22-2026-day-1428-bombardment
And personal thoughts in Jan. 23, 2025 - Day 1,429 - A quick note about Davos
The choice of summary paragraphs is mine,
"I served in the US military, alongside NATO allies during the Cold War, in Germany."
"During the Afghanistan War I saw those NATO allies on the ground alongside US troops. Where I was it was IASF: Danes, Norwegians, Swedes, Croats and Czechs; and less frequently Spaniards, Italians and Lithuanians. They didn’t have to be there. They volunteered, every one of them.
I am of course shocked and mortified that the US President, draft dodger that he is, spat upon those allies’ sacrifices. I am sorry that I have lived to see a day when the leader of the United States sees fit to ignore the hard battles, the deaths, wounds, amputations, broken families and hundreds of new graves in peaceful countries that hadn’t seen war for generations, just so he could spout at the mouth and score a domestic political point, or two."
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/jan-23-2025-day-1429-a-quick-note
The EU seem to be making some progress on the India trade deal. I think I saw of Reuters there's a notable defense sector element to this that mentioned India becoming an ammunition supplier.
A DW video suggested both parties were looking to de-risk, India from Russian arms, and Europe from the US and China.
This is obviously all on EU progress time scales.
Edit https://www.dw.com/en/eu-india-set-for-historic-trade-deal-amid-us-tariffs/a-75638454
For its part, India hopes to supply the EU with ammunition, much needed in Ukraine, and could potentially free up European supplies to send across to Kyiv.
^ the pen and 'soft power' could get us a lot lot further than the physical battlefield will in this situation. We need to be creative - block every shadow tanker, carve up better deals with 'allies' of Russia, ban all Russian entry to any country we can etc etc.
The EU seem to be making some progress on the India trade deal. I think I saw of Reuters there's a notable defense sector element to this that mentioned India becoming an ammunition supplier.
India has been supplying artillery shells and other items to Ukraine since 2023, via third parties in Europe. India has also sold empty artillery shells for "western" manufacturers to fill with explosive and manufacture propellant, etc.
Much of this was tied to 's initiative to supply Ukraine after the EU initiative failed to deliver because of arguments over exclusively-EU supply. A year later supplied more than promised (up to 1.6mn rounds depending on who you believe) while the EU was still hadn't reached anything like that amount.
used companies that it already had contacts with, including its own manufacturers and intermediaries, which led to a variety of allegations against the scheme relating to cost, commissions, quality, etc. but most haven't been proved with QA only true for occasional batches.
A DW video suggested both parties were looking to de-risk, India from Russian arms, and Europe from the US and China.
This is obviously all on EU progress time scales.
For its part, India hopes to supply the EU with ammunition, much needed in Ukraine, and could potentially free up European supplies to send across to Kyiv.
The de-risking idea is going to be a slow-burn.
Europe has recently exceeded the manufacturing capability of the US for artillery rounds, but that's about it. France and Germany can't even agree on their Future Combat Air System.
REMs are almost exclusively extracted in China for processors, motors, etc. The "west" can mine them but the most effective methods of extraction are only available in China against a background of lower environmental controls.
India is likely to be buying from Russia for some time, not helped by President Trump whacking them, but not China, with massive tariffs for buying Russian oil.
In August 2025, PM Modi postponed the purchase of Stryker vehicles, Javelin anti-tank missiles and Boeing aircraft over tariffs. A gradual thaw has led to a partial resumption in November with agreement on Javelin missiles https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdeger2k625o
Russia owes India two (out of five) S400 AD missile systems from 2023, so they'll be buying spares for these and other systems for at least a decade. Export missiles, probably intended for India, have been used to strike Ukraine https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_used_export_s_400_missiles_likely_intended_for_india_against_targets_in_ukraine-17255.html
I think that it's clear that Russia is innovating drone warfare far more than western militaries, even while under tech sanctions. They're upping their game and recruiting a cohort of the best and brightest direct from Universities.
More "conventional" weapons seem to be taking a back seat because the budget only stretches so far; serial numbers on missiles used in strikes on Ukraine indicate low stock with production sometimes shortly before use while stored armoured vehicles and guns have all but disappeared.
Russian Geran/Shahed and, more recently, Molniya drones have been found with Starlink terminals attached, while Ukraine has equipped sea drones with the terminals https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-starts-installing-starlink-on-molniya-1766396882.html
The terminals allow for greater range and are relatively immune to electronic warfare. They've also been subject to controversy with Elon Musk rejecting Ukraine's request for coverage in Sevastopol to launch an offensive there in 2023.
In January 2023 he said, "we are not allowing Starlink to be used for long-range drone strikes".
The Russian BM35 drone aircraft is a new development with Starlink and sanctioned parts from Europe, the US and far east and is a similar delta-wing design to the Geran/Shahed drone. It has a front-mounted engine rather than rear-mounted and other differences. It also has a range of 500km, which is surely a "long-range drone strike", equal to some cruise missiles.
Starlink has been searching for a solution to the unauthorised use of terminals since late 2024, but hasn't demonstrated a lasting fix
"This strike comes less than two weeks after Beskrestnov reported the first recorded usage of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones on January 15. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash”) Beskrestnov noted that the BM-35 drone is more fuel efficient than Russian Molniya fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones and has a range of up to 500 kilometers."
"Russian forces appear to be increasingly relying on Starlinks to increase the range of operation of strike drones while increasing drone resilience against Ukrainian EW. The reported 500-kilometer range of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones places most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, and parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania in range of these drones if launched from Russia or occupied Ukraine."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2026/
Russia’s Largest Private Oil Company Demands a Bailout
"Lukoil is petitioning the Russian government to change its tax rules because the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine has sent global prices per barrel plummeting. Foreign buyers have been sniffing for a deal." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68831
Europe is cranking up the pressure on the "shadow-fleet" by boarding tankers where the law allows and in response Russia is putting the miles on its naval fleet by increasingly escorting its tankers past Europe and the UK.
European states call for shadow fleet safety action:
States issue warning to stateless and flag-hopping shadow fleet operators
Ships not meeting global rules may be subject to boarding
Governments call for rapid development of alternative navigation systems to address routine spoofing of shadow fleet
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156177/European-states-call-for-shadow-fleet-safety-action
We've seen temporary reductions in Russian crude oil imports by India before; the oil companies assess sanctions, recalibrate and resume. We'll see,
India’s Russian crude oil imports fall as new EU sanctions on oil products kick in:
December imports hit a low not seen in more than three years
New sanctions on products made from Russian crude are prompting Indian refiners to seek alternative feedstocks to maintain exports to Europe
Imports into sanctioned Vadinar, home to Russia-owned sanctioned refinery Nayara, remain firm
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156169/India%E2%80%99s-Russian-crude-oil-imports-fall-as-new-EU-sanctions-on-oil-products-kick-in
The Baltic Sea is to be closed to the Russian shadow fleet, excellent news, 3 years too late of course 🤷♂️
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and Elon Musk have been trading insults for a year over Ukraine's access to Starlink, which is paid for by Poland.
Yesterday's spat culminated in Musk calling Sikorski a “drooling imbecile” last night,
Elon Musk called Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski a “drooling imbecile” on Wednesday after Sikorski shared a report from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showing that Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellites to guide drone attacks on Ukraine.
I guess that includes me for daring to share the report with STW^^. Comments not required 😀
Shares of Franco-British satellite operator Eutelsat, a potential alternative, surged as much as 650% in early March 2025, reflecting investor interest in satellite communications amid the war. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68933
Eutelsat doesn't have anywhere near the same bandwidth capability as Starlink and its ground terminals are bigger, more complex, much more expensive and around 10x the weight. That's two gallons of water that a drone can't carry to troops, or an anti-tank mine that can't be delivered.
The Intellian Compact Flat Panel for Land Mobility is 560 x 450 x 120 mm (22” x 17.7” x 4.7”) and 12.2kg (26.9lb) https://intelliantech.com/en/products/eutelsat-oneweb-series/ow10hv#
The Starlink Mini terminal is 298.5 x 259 x 38.5 mm (11.75" x 10.2" x 1.45") and a measly 1.1kg (2.43lb) https://starlink.com/gb/specifications?spec=5
The Baltic Sea is to be closed to the Russian shadow fleet, excellent news, 3 years too late of course 🤷♂️
I agree that it's too late, but it's been discussed for a few years and a "closure" isn't legal. It also includes the North Sea.
The US isn't going to bring peace any time soon, IMHO. The noises coming from the UAE are that neither Ukraine nor Russia will be satisfied with the peace deal; both Ukraine and Russia will need to give up territory that they currently occupy. NATO expansion isn't addressed to Russia's satisfaction and Ukraine won't get a defence agreement before signing up to cede territory.
The "closure" is a European effort, with Iceland, to bring the war to a conclusion through economic pressure before the US throws a major spanner in the works with threats to force Ukraine's hand.
The Coastal States of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea have posted a background to action, which is basically around safety concerns, and will take action accordingly https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safety/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safety
Legally it's better if there are firm safety concerns, e.g. to cables, environmental damage, etc, rather than flags and transponder issues. Successful boarding in the Baltic has been undertaken, which has proved to be non-escalatory, but always in concert with cable investigations.
The problem is that action without firm accusations often leads to escalation, e.g. the attempt by Estonia to detain the tanker, Jaguar, in May led to Russian fighter aircraft intervening. The tanker refused to stop and Estonia didn't have boarding capability so escorted it to Russian waters.
More Russian tankers are now being escorted by Russian navy vessels so escalation is more of a threat than if this had been done years ago.
Denmark's Maersk group could get caught up in retaliatory moves, which is a consideration probably shared with shipping lines in other Baltic and North Sea states.
I'll see how this one develops, but the outcome of the first military escalation will be key
The ‘closure’ will only affect ships flouting the rules, so there is a legal basis. The ships flouting the rules are the shadow fleet. Sure the Russian navy will escort some of the tankers,- but this must increase the cost of delivery, right? And surely they can’t escort every ship!
I agree that there's a legal basis, but I remain to be convinced of how the plan will survive its first escalation
(see page 2)
While the letter stops short of threatening more direct vessel boardings, government officials behind the letter have warned that “coastal states have the right to react if these requirements are not met”.
We'll see I suppose!!!
Starlink has been searching for a solution to the unauthorised use of terminals since late 2024, but hasn't demonstrated a lasting fix
Ukraine has announced today that Starlink is looking at this again https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-and-spacex-seek-solution-to-russian-1769696180.html
They get a pass for grammar!
No wonder President Zelensky was exasperated at the Davos summit, which ended 23rd January
23rd Jan
"The BBC understands that the UK government received legal assurances earlier this month that such vessels can be detained. Yet 42 sanctioned tankers tracked by BBC Verify passing through the English Channel did so after that advice was received."
"In January, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the British government was ready to "tighten the chokehold" on Russia and take new "assertive actions" against shadow fleet vessels. Her comments came after officials were told troops could board and seize tankers under the Sanctions and Money Act 2018." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2d77rr51rko
30th Jan
"We reported this morning that eight oil tankers that have been sanctioned by the UK for transporting Russian oil are sailing through the English Channel today." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy8yw4y7dw9t
Two BBC things of interest.
Programme on Steve Rosenberg and operating as a journalist in Russia
The BBC website as dropped specifi headers for War in Gaza and War in Ukraine. Disappointingly I guess these are in with the main news stuff...
Friends in Kyiv are feeling the power outages and utility strikes.... long periods of no power which is also hitting heating systems. It would also seem that after a 1 day break, russia is back full steam with drones again.
Lastly, this gets Ukraine on the first STW page again.....
Just listened to an interview on The Rest Is Politics Leading with Bill Browder, an American business man who worked in Russia as Putin rose to power.
He gives an interesting take on how Putin got where he is and why he'll never agree to peace in Ukraine. He reckons it's nothing as 'noble' as expansionism or restoring Russia's greatness - he simply needs a war to stop the people uprising and toppling him.
All the current global turmoil is just down to a bunch of greedy old tossers in power who always want more.
Same as it ever was I guess.
Russian forces have completely taken the City of Myrnohrad in the last few days and are establishing bases there. Ukraine reports that it's been costly for Russia and attacks on the adjacent northern part of the city of Pokrovsk, which is the part of the city still occupied by Ukraine's forces, have decreased as a result.
I'm still of the opinion that if one falls the other will follow but Ukraine is continuing its defence of northern Pokrovsk. The southern part of the town of Svitle, which is between the two cities has also fallen to Russia. The town of Rivne, between Pokrovsk and Svitle, is still controlled by Ukraine.
It seems likely that Russian forces have also completely taken the City of Hulyaipole, although the southwest might still be very "grey". ISW's map shows that most of the city is in Russian control and the southwest of the city as "claimed" by Russia.
Ukraine's latest confirmed advance is towards the city and 1km to the south, with Russia attacking west into the Donbas and away from the city, which tends to confirm Russia's claim.
The two forces are still engaged around Hulyaipole with both making confirmed advances. This may point to both forces being stretched and unable to hold ground around the city with troops, relying instead on mines and drone strikes.
Claims are difficult to verify and often a city is designated "grey" in parts because substantial pockets of troops from both sides may be in adjacent buildings.
The cities are prized because it's something to point to on a map, they're useful in peace negotiations should front lines be frozen while logistics routes tend to be better and more numerous. That doesn't prevent forces from continuing to fight outside the cities.
"Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 3 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian artillery system in southern Myrnohrad, and Ukrainian new outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on January 28 that Russian forces have begun moving command posts into Myrnohrad, indicating that Russian forces seized Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) on a prior date.
ISW has not observed evidence in the past few weeks that would indicate that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions in the area. Geolocated footage published on February 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northwestern Pokrovsk.""Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and toward Bilytske; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad and Svitle; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske on February 3 and 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Rodynske."
"Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2026/
Social media reports suggest that Starlink coverage is being denied to Russian forces. A "whitelist" system has been agreed with Starlink and Ukraine's military and civilian populations have separate free registration systems to authorise their terminals.
There is a slight information security risk in that it geo-locates Ukraine's military to Starlink employees, however, I'd be surprised if Starlink couldn't piece that information together from existing data.
Russia is experimenting with mesh networks and repeater drones to maintain comms. It's not a technology that I understand at all well, but combine the mesh network with AI to supplement the low bandwidth and you can develop controllable drone swarms. The AI will also overcome system shortcomings if electronic warfare is turned against mesh comms.
https://cepa.org/article/how-russian-drone-developers-outpace-the-west/
Just listened to an interview on The Rest Is Politics Leading with Bill Browder, an American business man who worked in Russia as Putin rose to power.
He gives an interesting take on how Putin got where he is and why he'll never agree to peace in Ukraine. He reckons it's nothing as 'noble' as expansionism or restoring Russia's greatness - he simply needs a war to stop the people uprising and toppling him.
All the current global turmoil is just down to a bunch of greedy old tossers in power who always want more.
Same as it ever was I guess.
Followed Bill for a while including reading his books. At the out break of this war he said Putins ratings were tanking and he needed to shore up his position. This is purely about clinging onto power to protect his wealth and as soon as he stops he will fall out of a window. coward.
Ukrainian civilians really suffering with the relentless strikes on the energy infrastructure. Kyiv independant article.
Ukrainian civilians really suffering with the relentless strikes on the energy infrastructure.
Sadly yes.
Another war crime compounded by Ukraine's Minister of Energy, Herman Halushchenko reporting that Russia is sometimes using cluster munitions to achieve maximum damage. The civilian population is sometimes victim to these munitions (another war crime).
The electrical system is extremely fragile and collapsed due to an ice storm bringing cables down; something that it would normally cope with.
The US has started LPG exports but really needs to take more positive action to prevent strikes on civilian infrastructure and to increase AD supply