Forum menu
So Russia now lie about an attack on Putins residence?
An excuse to do a retaliation in the next few hours on a high profile target?
And bail from peace talks claiming that Ukraine is a nasty piece of work for targeting Putin.
Do we expect anything different?
If you actually read my quote, I qualified it with this “ Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?”
Yeah I read it. I’m not sure what stating your ridiculous assumption adds to the argument, but if it makes you feel better, go for it.
What I don’t do is bombard this thread with utter BS.
Ahem.
so, given
Yeah I read it. I’m not sure what stating your ridiculous assumption adds to the argument
what was ridiculous about it?
So Russia now lie about an attack on Putins residence?
An excuse to do a retaliation in the next few hours on a high profile target?
Russia attacked the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv in September, which is near to the Parliament building and President's residence https://www.kyivpost.com/post/59620
Russian "retaliation" already happened
And bail from peace talks claiming that Ukraine is a nasty piece of work for targeting Putin.
Do we expect anything different?
It isn't different, but President Trump is "very angry" about Ukraine's "unacceptable escalation". Other Republican's have urged him to get the facts first in some straight-talking, "liar", "lying" and "embarrassment" comments
“You know who told me about it?” the president said, recounting claims that Ukraine had tried to strike one of Putin’s residences in northern Russia. “President Putin told me about it.”
"Trump said he was “very angry” about the alleged attack, calling it an unacceptable escalation – even while conceding that the incident might not have happened at all.
“It’s possible too, I guess,” Trump said. “But President Putin told me this morning it did.”""Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, urged caution in a post on X.
“President Trump and his team should get the facts first before assuming blame,” Bacon wrote. “Putin is a well-known boldface liar.”
Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), a frequent Trump critic, went further.
“It’s been a year of Putin lying to him, and Trump believing it,” Kinzinger said, calling the episode “an embarrassment to our nation.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67134
Timba does a good job here without your inane ramblings getting in the way of good info.
Or you could say that it’s a good idea to keep in mind the overall picture, which is that Russia is a huge country with massive resources, and not get trapped in the weeds looking at Boys Own style minutiae. Or maybe there’s room for both?
Now we're talking! 
IIRC, a few folk suggested Ukraine at the time. Reading this I would suggest many people might want to stop this ship and it's cargo...
#CannotTrustRussia
I'm slightly mystified by this story.
Russia's greater export is its knowledge, which you can see in the improved accuracy of NKorean missiles deployed in Ukraine. It also secretly transports weapons with the shadow fleet
It was always the case that it was carrying two nuclear reactor hatches, reportedly for a project 10510 nuclear-powered icebreaker.
Each ice breaker has two reactors that are pressurised water types, similar to the single reactor in Russian submarines. None of this proves what they were actually for, especially when you're looking at a crated object from a distance.
The route doesn't really help, NKorea and Vladivostok are next door to one another. It just seems to be clicky-supposition
The war will drag on until such time as UK/EU or even USA can no longer see a way out (not economically viable) by abandoning Ukraine. Depending on the severity Trump may/may not be in office by that time. Then there is a greater risk of triggering some form of nuclear wars when the next person takes over the administration, and in desperation takes a pre-emptive strike on Russia (because that's the only way to "win").
Russia has a projected GDP for 2026, which is smaller than that of Italy. The EU has a GDP that includes Italy
Russia's oil is currently selling at cost (around $35 barrel) and its businesses are collapsing, so although its GDP by purchasing power parity is greater then either Japan or Germany, it can't buy as much locally.
According to Steve Rosenberg's Reading Russia (24 Dec), Russian media reports an “acute labour shortage. More than 800,000 blue-collar workers needed.”
Show me why you'd think that economics are on Russia's side.
Where do you think that 800,000 blue-collar workers have disappeared to?
I reckon I can have a guess at that
approx half joined up , got 2 weeks basic training and were sent in daylight frontal assults against dug in positions backed up with artillery, drones and IFV's. Using a combination of mopeds , donkeys and Trabant troop carriers they quickly became statistics.
The other half went for a long walk and are over a border that adjoins Russia and are waiting it out for a regime change or end of hostilities. Then they can return to their factory jobs making chairs.
Leaving soft furnishing manufacturers short of manpower .
I reckon I can have a guess at that
approx half joined up , got 2 weeks basic training and were sent in daylight frontal assults against dug in positions backed up with artillery, drones and IFV's. Using a combination of mopeds , donkeys and Trabant troop carriers they quickly became statistics.
The other half went for a long walk and are over a border that adjoins Russia and are waiting it out for a regime change or end of hostilities. Then they can return to their factory jobs making chairs.
Leaving soft furnishing manufacturers short of manpower .
How well are the foreign workers received?
"Coming over here, taking our jobs while our boys are dying for our country"
Russia has a projected GDP for 2026, which is smaller than that of Italy. The EU has a GDP that includes Italy
Russia's oil is currently selling at cost (around $35 barrel) and its businesses are collapsing, so although its GDP by purchasing power parity is greater then either Japan or Germany, it can't buy as much locally.
According to Steve Rosenberg'sReading Russia(24 Dec), Russian media reports an “acute labour shortage. More than 800,000 blue-collar workers needed.”
Show me why you'd think that economics are on Russia's side.
Where do you think that 800,000 blue-collar workers have disappeared to?
Exactly. The only thing that prevents Europe defeating Russia in the Ukraine is political will. We don't even need to send troops. Money and arms will do.
The only thing that prevents Europe defeating Russia in the Ukraine is political will.
And recycling. I'm pretty sure the only thing between the rest of us and the German 5th Reich is more productive channelling of the fact they love to sort.
Significant power outages in Moscow being reported... Nice gift for New Year...
https://twitter.com/grok/status/2006235689180934585?s=20
How well are the foreign workers received?
"Coming over here, taking our jobs while our boys are dying for our country"
It's something that you'd need to google. There are numerous tales from every corner of the Russian-influenced world of men being coerced to visit with job offers and press-ganged within Russia, especially during the last couple of years.
Some are running into far-right extremists and some are enjoying the high life. Women seem to do better because they don't run the risk of press-gangs
This Iranian photographer was forced onto the frontline before becoming the first Iranian PoW (reported yesterday),
"Arash Darbendi’s capture by Ukrainian forces marks the first publicly confirmed case of an Iranian national taken prisoner of war (POW) in the ongoing conflict."
"Darbandi’s case highlights a broader, controversial trend in the Russian military’s recruitment strategy. Over the past year, reports have surfaced of citizens from India, Nepal, and several African nations being lured to Russia with promises of high-paying jobs, only to be coerced into front-line combat through visa threats or legal pressure."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67171
I'm seeing more reports from economists warning of real systemic issues for the Russians. This could of course be the algorithms showing me more of them because I read a couple, but this is interesting
Russian banks restricting large cash withdrawals.
Now it says it's a fraud prevention measure, but I'm wondering if that's just a story to prevent a run on the banks. Fingers crossed it really is coming to pass.
Russia has donated $500k to Ukraine's drone manufacturers in a sting operation by Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate,
"Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) helped Denis Kapustin, the founder of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) who was announced dead last week, to fake his death before claiming the bounty placed on his head by Russian security services, it said on Thursday."
"HUR said that the murder of Kapustin – considered a “personal enemy” by Russian President Vladimir Putin – had been “commissioned by the special services of the aggressor state Russia, which allocated half a million dollars to carry out the crime.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67268
The RVC is one three units of the HUR International Legion that fights for Ukraine.
An end of year interview was reported with Kaupo Rosin, Director General of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, who said (translated),
"Also, after the launch of the NATO mission (Baltic Sentry), there were no more incidents with cables. That's the current situation. Of course, this does not exclude the fact that in the future incidents can happen, since military activity is high, the war in Ukraine continues actively - theoretically it is still possible."
"Let's say that the interest of Russia, if we talk about the shadow fleet, is primarily to preserve freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea in order to secure income, since a significant part of oil transportation passes through the Baltic."
The pressure of Baltic Sentry is high, especially as Russian shadow fleet vessels have been detained elsewhere, eg by French authorities, and cable breakages have massively reduced in preference to freedom of navigation.
During the New Year a cargo ship was detained for damaging a cable in the Baltic Sea, which may be a coincidence, but may also be testing the boundaries to see if NATO has relaxed.
The ship's cargo is steel destined for Israel, so it may be an attempt to bring the US down on Baltic Sentry for delaying an Israel-bound cargo.
"Finnish police detained a cargo vessel sailing from Russia on suspicion of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable running from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67256
There's a bit more geo-political stuff from July for those who'd like some background https://jsis.washington.edu/news/baltic-sea-undersea-cable-security/
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
I dunno why Poland and Lithuania don't bilaterally annex kalingrad.
That would be a baller move whilst the Russians are busy in Ukraine and would really **** their shit up.
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
Probably not if it's purchased via a 3rd party intermediary because it's not technically Russian any more.
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
Yes, but only as an import to participating countries, eg EU, UK and others.
Export is generally allowed.
Russian steel is generally considered "Russian" regardless of where it's processed, but there are a boatload of exemptions in relation to steel and other metal imports
2025 shows that the Russian strategy has failed. In 1 year they have taken roughly 0.8% of Ukrainian territory,- mostly fields. In 18 months they still haven’t taken all of Pokrovsk. This has come at massive cost in terms of men/equipment and their economy.
There's a definite pattern of offensive operations by Ukraine's forces in both Rodynske and Huliaipole.
Flags have been raised in parts of Rodynske and there's been a consistent fight back over a few days in Huliaipole.
Hopefully this will continue as both sides face the snow which tends to limit drone operations
Venezuela risk accelerates Russian intake of shadow fleet vessels
Last month, 17 shadow fleet tankers left fraudulent registers and joined the Russian flag directly
The shift into Russia’s register is accelerating — over 40 shadow fleet ships have joined since June 2025
Venezuela callers appear to be following Russia’s shadow fleet choice, further accelerating the shift"Following a two-week pursuit of the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 (IMO: 9230880), Moscow officials issued a diplomatic notice to the US State Department on December 31 confirming the tanker had formally changed its name to Marinera and switched its registration to the Russian ship register.
The mid-voyage flag change effectively gave the tanker, which started its journey in Iran and had been on its way to pick up oil in Venezuela when US forces tried to stop and board it in the Caribbean Sea, Russian protection.""That shifts in flagging towards Russia, first reported by Lloyd’s List last month, points to a more permanent evolution of the shadow fleet with direct oversight and protection from Russia."
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155992/Venezuela-risk-accelerates-Russian-intake-of-shadow-fleet-vessels
This is interesting because Russia is putting an awful lot of effort into protecting one vessel, including painting a Russian flag on the vessel while sailing, while NATO is putting an awful lot of effort into surveilling a tanker that can literally be seen from space. On Sunday The Irish Times reported that,
"On Sunday afternoon and evening, the US deployed several maritime surveillance aircraft about 400km west of Ireland near the suspected area of the Russian flagged tanker.
The aircraft took off from Nato bases in Britain and Iceland. The oil tanker, the Marinera, which until a few days ago was registered as a Guyana-flagged vessel called the Bella 1, has been pursued by US naval forces since mid-December https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2026/01/04/us-military-monitors-oil-tanker-off-irish-coast-as-it-sails-towards-russia/
Yesterday The Irish Times reported,
"However, on Monday afternoon a P-8 departed from RAF Mildenhall in Sussex and travelled across the middle of Ireland to the North Atlantic. It remained in Irish airspace for about 40 minutes.
It then patrolled the area containing the Marinera for nearly five hours before returning by the same route over Ireland and landing in the UK.
The aircraft’s route was highly unusual.""Irish and US sources said permission had been sought for the flight at a Government level. The aircraft also received clearance from Irish air traffic control (ATC). However, it is not clear how this was justified under current Irish Government policy."
"A spokesman for the US European Command said details on the flight are “not releasable at this time”."
"The Pentagon did not respond to request for comment."
"A Defence Forces spokesman said it does not comment on operations but said “when necessary, specific intelligence-led maritime defence and security operations are executed as a stand-alone operation”."
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2026/01/06/us-naval-aircraft-crossed-ireland-during-pursuit-of-sanctioned-oil-tanker/
What's on the tanker that came from Iran? Government? Something nuclear? Or is it a sub sheltering beneath?
It looks like Ukraine will receive new batch of weapons soon judging from the Hercules transport planes flying to EU from America recently. Wonder who pays for the weapons? 🤔
Wasn’t the shadow fleet an evolution to avoid sanctions? How does reflagging shadow ships as Russian help?
How does reflagging shadow ships as Russian help?
It's to deter the Americans from arresting the vessel
US carrying out operation to seize Venezuela-linked tanker, official says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwynjdqgellt
The US have boarded the Russian tanker called the Bela 1, so reflagging it from the shadow fleet was ineffective.
Suspected that it may be carrying weapons?
Has the Russian sub arrived to "escort" the tanker yet?
Has the Russian sub arrived to "escort" the tanker yet?
The tanker is empty, see the still image partway down this article (actually pops up as the link image). Way too much hull visible https://news.sky.com/story/what-we-know-about-us-seizure-of-russian-flagged-oil-tanker-linked-to-venezuela-13491539
Chased for 5000miles (or whatever)
Russian sub en route? Absolutely nothing to see here!
Russian sub en route? Absolutely nothing to see here!
It's an odd one, why now all of a sudden. And Russia sending a sub to escort also raises an eyebrow, although maybe that's just a case of it being the only thing around.
Iran and Venezuela are linked by terrorism, apparently https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-maduro-hezbollah-nexus-how-iran-backed-networks-prop-up-the-venezuelan-regime/
The thing with saying you're sending a sub is you can then NOT send a sub and claim your sub is SO STEALTHY. Double win.
The thing with saying you're sending a sub is you can then NOT send a sub and claim your sub is SO STEALTHY. Double win
This. See that big empty bit of sea? The escort sub is there somewhere lurking, ready to ruin your day, not rusting in a port somewhere (honest!).
Iran and Venezuela are linked by terrorism, apparently
A lady in Minnesota driving a car was a terrorist too. Most people are terrorists these days.
US carrying out operation to seize Venezuela-linked tanker, official says
“Woof woof” says UK poodle.
It seems that President Putin has finally over-stepped with President Trump. First with his allegation of an attack on his private home, which Trump took at face value before having to publicly retract and then protecting a ship linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and operating in the Americas.
I'm remaining cautious because this bill has been on life-support for months, despite its popularity in US Congress, because Trump won't sign it in its current form.
"President Donald Trump has officially greenlit a long-stalled bipartisan sanctions bill, opening the door to what lawmakers claim could be the most aggressive economic pressure campaign yet aimed at Vladimir Putin."
"“The drone theatrics backfired,” one GOP aide told Kyiv Post Wednesday afternoon, referring to a recent, easily disproved Russian claim of a Ukrainian attack on a Putin residence. “The president doesn’t believe Putin – and now Congress has been told to act accordingly.”"
"“First, the tankers get taken down. Now the president has greenlit secondary sanctions – something the administration had been holding off on,” Plitsas wrote. “The message to Putin is clear: the president doesn’t believe him.”
Plitsas emphasized that if the bill is signed, the “bite” would be felt quickly, likely within a month of implementation." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67636
If the bill is signed
Always a big if. He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
We’ve been up this blind alley too many times now. Let’s see what he actually does.
We’ve been up this blind alley too many times now. Let’s see what he actually does.
My guess: nothing.
He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
"You can take ma toon, but you can never take ma pudding!"
Another Russian tanker struck by Ukraine today.
If the bill is signed
Always a big if. He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
Before or after Caithness?
