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Russian forces are likely aiming for starting positions for assaulting Ukraine's "fortress belt" for their Summer 2026 campaign.
It's going a lot slower with greater losses than the strict targets laid down by Russian military planners; these targets partially account for claims that a settlement has been captured weeks before it is (or isn't in the case of Kupyansk).
The slipping timeline has happened despite advantageous weather conditions that prevented Ukraine's reconnaissance and strike drones from flying and gives an idea of how difficult the campaign will be.
"The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however."
"The Russian military command will likely have to choose between deploying its likely limited strategic reserves now to better prepare for the summer offensive or risk using the strategic reserve later in the summer but from less advantageous positions."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2026/
ISW has also assessed that Hulyaipole has fallen (claimed by Russia a month earlier on 27th Dec). The town is 3 miles x 3 miles on its longest axes and had a pre-war population of less than 13,000, but took three full months to be captured. It is classified as a city, however the "fortress belt" cities are much larger and will be far harder to take.
The late timeline will leave Russian forces struggling with already stretched logistics as poor ground conditions return in autumn and winter.
"ISW assesses that Russian forces likely seized Hulyaipole — a town with a pre-war population of roughly 13,000 – after three months of fighting and are unlikely to make rapid advances beyond Hulyaipole without deprioritizing other areas of the frontline. Geolocated footage published on February 6 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Zaliznychne (west of Hulyaipole), indicating that Russian forces advanced beyond Hulyaipole at a prior date. ISW has not observed evidence in the past few weeks that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions in Hulyaipole, and the pattern of recent Russian infiltrations and advances in area suggests that Russian forces hold the town."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2026/
There are various reports on SM that the loss of Starlink is causing problems in the Command and Control of a variety of Russian operations. There are also reports of so-called friendly-fire incidents because of a lack of comms. The loss of Starlink is reportedly affecting 90% of Russian units and won't help the speed of their summer campaign.
Reconnaisance drones were using modems with Ukrainian SIM cards, which were defeated by Ukraine's telecomms operators. Russia then developed mobile Starlink comms to transmit live video and direct troops.
The loss of Starlink may partially explain why Mavic drones are now being heavily used on the frontline by Russia around Pokrovsk with reconnaisance drones further back while artillery is being moved into Myrnohrad.
It appears that Russian forces are asking for donations of comms equipment, which is an indictment of a military that doesn't have a back-up of personal radio comms.
"In a video posted by the channel, one fighter complained: “We’ve been left without communications!” Russian independent outlet The Moscow Times reported."
Full article https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69587
Came across this recent development in anti-drone operations, mini-gunships!
America will be replacing all the minigun rotary machine guns that have been in use since the 60’s with new upgraded guns, I’m sure the Ukrainians would be happy recipients of them…
In 2023 Slovakia's former PM, Eduard Heger, transferred MiG-29 aircraft and other materiel to Ukraine without their replacements being in place.
The transfer has bubbled to the surface again under PM Robert Fico and President Peter Pellegrini, with both claiming that this was a mistake that won't be allowed to happen again.
Slovakia, like PM Viktor Orban's Hungary, has opposed EU funding to Ukraine, opposed military aid to Ukraine, opposed Ukraine's membership of NATO and is clinging to Russian energy products as well.
Pellegrini is up for re-election in April, but Fico only came to power in October 2023, however, more than 350,000 people have signed up to a motion that would force a national referendum on early governmental elections and the resignation of Robert Fico’s government.
Pellegrini leads a party that split from Fico's party in 2020 because he doesn't agree with Fico's direction of travel. There is a build-up of public opposition to Fico for a variety of reasons and it seems unlikely that Pellegrini would use his power to prevent the referendum, especially on the "eve" of his own re-election:
Fico's national security adviser, Miroslav Lajčák, has emerged from the Epstein files in e-mails and resigned at the end of January because of that.
Fico's government has been in trouble for some time, operating on the slimmest of majorities with a series of no-confidence motions stacking up for discussion in Parliament.
In mid-January Fico announced that a no-confidence debate in Parliament would have to be held in secret because he would be referring to security service documents about a coup allegedly planned by the opposition. This meant that the vote would be held without the debate on Government failures being aired publicly, causing the opposition to walk out.
The opposition was later given the emails that formed the basis of the secret documents and promptly published them on Facebook because there wasn't a secret element to them and very little evidence of a coup.
There have been public protests in Slovakia since 2024 because of closer ties to Russia, the failure to back Ukraine fully, a more authoritarian stance and allegations that Fico would take Slovakia out of the EU.
Hungary is due to vote in April and Orban has been trailing in independent polls throughout the campaign. Government polls indicate the opposite.
I think that we have to remember that Hungary's government mechanisms are firmly steeped in 16 years of Orban's Fidesz party, while the opposition Tisza party leader Peter Magyar is a former colleague of Orban who has pledged to reduce corruption and stop Russian energy supplies by 2035.
We don't know whether early elections will happen in Slovakia, but in common with Hungary, this is Fico's fourth (non-consecutive) spell as PM and government mechanisms will surely reflect his tenure.
Maybe things will change for Ukraine in April, or maybe not.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69661
https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-adviser-resigns-jeffrey-epstein-revelations-disclosures-fico/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgr4zrvv4po
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/slovakia-seeks-early-elections-what-is-known-1770411201.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/hungarys-opposition-tisza-promises-wealth-tax-euro-adoption-election-programme-2026-02-07/
An article on the announcement of elections in Ukraine in Spring 2026. The concept of the US having to provide security guarantees before any election was mentioned on here a while ago ^^
President Zelensky is very capable of smart political moves, e.g. conceding to elections that he knows Russia will probably refuse because security guarantees currently include NATO boots in Ukraine
"In a surprise announcement on February 10, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that his administration was preparing to hold presidential elections before the middle of May. Alongside these elections, he is reported to be planning to hold a referendum on a peace deal with Russia."
"Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has got to this situation without making any concessions. He has played the US president perfectly so far, and there is no indication that he is done playing him. Trump is almost certain to continue to do Putin’s bidding – and to walk away as and when his grandiose plan unravels."
"Offering logistically almost-impossible elections and a referendum with a highly uncertain outcome would be a smart way for the Ukrainian president and his European allies to buy themselves the time they need for a new strategy."
"Five reasons Trump’s plan for Ukrainian elections and a peace referendum will only prolong the war:
1. Organising a free and fair vote in wartime
2. There’s no realistic peace deal yet
3. Ukrainians might say no to peace
4. Europe must play a part
5. Russia can’t be trusted"
Ukraine has announced today that Starlink is looking at this again
There are lots of reports that the recent loss of access to Starlink by Russia at the front line is seriously hindering their capability. Both to use Starlink equipped drones and for comms. They are reverting to commercial hand held radios in some instances, often provided via gofundme me type whip rounds in Russia.
These comms are easily intercepted by Ukraine. There are also reports that the FSB/GRU are trying to get civilian assets inside Ukraine to provide unblocked Starlink codes to them to get around the ban. A sign of desperation that is unlikely to yield significant results.
Elon is still a throbber, but credit to him for this, it is actually having an effect on Russia's offensive ops.
Elon is still a throbber, but credit to him for this, it is actually having an effect on Russia's offensive ops.
how much credit does he actually get? It's probably just MDS cos i've got no evidence at all, but id ahve thoguht this is some part of the USG telling him to do it rather than him seeing the light
You have a point. I don't suppose it matters who gets the credit, just a good thing it's happened 👍
There are also reports that the FSB/GRU are trying to get civilian assets inside Ukraine to provide unblocked Starlink codes to them to get around the ban. A sign of desperation that is unlikely to yield significant results.
Ukraine's 256th Cyber Assault Division set a "sting" operation up, which identified 31 people within Ukraine who would register terminals on behalf of Russia.
They also took almost $6k from Russian troops occupying Ukraine to get around the "whitelist" while gathering unit information and terminal locations to pass to on for action.
"Russian servicemen were instructed to submit identifying information and the coordinates of their terminals under the guise that the devices would be reactivated through Ukrainian administrative service centers.
The group said they collected 2,420 data packets related to Russian-used terminals and transferred them to Ukrainian law enforcement and defense agencies.""The group also said it received $5,870 from Russian soldiers seeking to restore connectivity which it is donating to fundraising efforts for Ukrainian drones.
It also identified 31 Ukrainian "traitors" willing to assist Russian forces by registering terminals. According to the statement, that information has been forwarded to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU)." https://kyivindependent.com/using-starlink-ruse-ukrainian-cyber-forces-trick-russian-soldiers-into-revealing-positions-donating-to-armed-forces/
The contemporaneous decision for Roskomnadzor to "throttle" Telegram isn't helping Russian comms. The state wants everyone to move onto its own messaging app, Max, because there are "no effective measures to counter fraud and the use of the messaging app for criminal and terrorist purposes." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/telegram-messaging-app-faces-fines-russia-state-media-report-2026-02-10/
Russia is pushing mesh and wi-fi repeaters out to troops (very jammable, unlike Starlink) and Russian satellite terminals.
The maiden voyage of the Anglo-German hypersonic missile Project Nightfall has taken place after only nine months development. It's Europe's first privately-funded hypersonic missile and it achieved hypersonic speeds. The next test stages (broadly) will be hypersonic flight control and complex hypersonic anti-AD manoevres.
There's a short promotional video (linked below), which is only missing a fluffy white cat 😀
"Hypersonica, the Anglo-German defence and aerospace company building Europe’s sovereign hypersonic strike capability, today announced successful completion of its first hypersonic test flight at Andøya Space in Norway – the first privately funded European defence company to achieve this technological milestone.
Hypersonica’s missile prototype accelerated to speeds exceeding Mach 6, with a range of over 300km. Throughout the ascent and subsequent descent through the atmosphere, all systems operated nominally. System performance was successfully validated down to subcomponent level at hypersonic speeds."
"Hypersonica’s goal is to develop hypersonic strike capability by 2029. This timeline is a phased approach with successive test flights aimed at: achieving hypersonic flight, demonstrating advanced flight control at hypersonic speeds, then achieving complex manoeuvrability, and finally achieving full mission requirements." https://www.hypersonica.com/en/news/hypersonica-successful-test/
That sounds promising. I have no doubt the Europeans, now fully aware of the need to develop their own military defence, will in the not too distant future be developing military kit far superior to that of the USA.
no doubt the Europeans ... will in the not too distant future be developing military kit far superior to that of the USA.
Which, of course from an American perspective would be a blinding piece of "Oh, shit, we didn't think of that"-ery when they're next trying to sell F35s or whatever around the world 🤦♂️
There's been a flurry of reporting over the last week of a counter-offensive from Ukraine in the southern Zaporizhzhia frontline area between Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk.
Initially, it amounted to not much more than reporting, but it now seems to be morphing into something a little more solid in a few small areas in the south. This is quite localised but exceptional enough to put fingers to keyboard.
Russia initially presented this as taking advantage of their loss of Starlink and a major offensive. Yes and no.
Yes, it was taking advantage of Starlink, but no, it was about clearing pockets of Russian troops out of villages that are firmly in Ukrainian-held territory, e.g. Ternuvate, which was claimed as "captured" by Russia at the end of January, but is in reality 15km behind their evidenced frontline https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/flag-planted-captives-taken-russian-forces-1769797542.html
I suspect that from Russia's POV they can take the "defeat caused by Starlink" and back away from some of the more fanciful claims made by their commanders of ground captured. It's a convenient reset for them.
This article by Stefan Korshak (linked below) is more balanced in that respect than many that echo the Russian line,
Ukrainian assault infantry, armored transport and drone units operating in combined arms attack teams scored their biggest gains in assaults over the weekend in the Zaporizhzhia sector, liberating 5 villages across a 30-kilometer (19-mile) front near the city of Hulyaipole.
The attacks forced Russian units in the area to retreat across the tactically important Haichur River, and re-established Ukrainian control in territory held by Russian forces since late summer.Ukrainian news reports and even some unit information feeds reported veteran Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) combat formations concentrated in the sector in early February to carry out the attacks against a line of Zaporizhzhia villages between the frontline cities of Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk. By Saturday, even Ukrainian mainstream news was reporting the AFU’s elite 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades, along with the veteran 33rd and 475th Assault Infantry Regiments, were leading the attacks.
In some areas the clearing operations are continuing further forward into outright offensives against established Russia positions, taking advantage of Starlink, momentum and morale.
I think that Ukraine has seen the propaganda advantage and is using the comms advantage and sticking a bit of combined arms manoeuvring in there, something that Russia has failed to do successfully for years.
This won't harm their chances during peace negotiations because they can show the US team that they are rolling Russian claims back (claims made with huge casualty numbers over several months) in the space of only a week given the resources. This is more likely to result in a lasting peace deal.
Ukrainian assault groups using, among other equipment, US-made M1A1 Abrams tanks and Swedish CV-90 infantry assault vehicles were able to “quickly clear” Russian troops from the five settlements, Euromaidan reported.
We've previously touched on the concept of Ukraine altering its fixed defensive lines in this sector so that Russia has to attack them head-on rather than running parallel and along them ^^. This current offensive is giving Ukraine time to finish that work to a decent standard.
From an operational/tactical POV, Ukraine can now safely move drone operators further forward, knowing that there isn't a Russian group in the next cellar, which gives them the greater range to strike deeper.
French military analyst Clément Molin in a Sunday overview of Ukrainian operations said the Ukrainian attacks were widely separated and not a counteroffensive, but “a clearing operation” with the objective of establishing stronger defensive positions before a probable Russian spring offensive kicks off. “Ukraine isn’t trying to break through – it’s racing to dig in,” Molin said.
The final words go to Russia on the pro-Kremlin channel Tsargrad, a popular information platform. IMHO, "Yes, and no".
"The situation in the ‘East’ grouping zone is difficult. The enemy is trying to get into the gaps between our strong points under the cover of fog, taking advantage of the fact that the coordination between units has deteriorated,” the report said in part. “Today we are paying for these pictures [inaccurate reports to the Kremlin] with blood and territory. However, despite the enemy’s advantage in communications, there is no catastrophe."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70158
Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure went quiet more recently, I suspect because there's little point wasting munitions on damaged infrastructure when Ukraine can wait for it to be replaced. And repeat.
That hasn't been the game-changer that I think Ukraine had hoped for, but sanctions and trade deals seem to be making greater inroads. India's imports seem to be permanently reduced (I'd expressed some pessimism ^^ but it's holding) and Russia is producing below OPEC+ allowances.
Russian oil storage is reaching capacity so the next stage will be self-imposed production cuts and closures. This is the game-changer
As a result, oil and gas revenues have plunged. In January 2026, budget income from the sector fell to 393 billion rubles – about half the level recorded a year earlier and the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70154
Remaining Ukrainian forces in the NW of Pokrovsk city are being quite heavily pressured, with Russia trying to close their withdrawal routes to the NW. I think that they will have to make a decision to leave soon while the balance and comms advantages are with them.
its not just Starlink that Russia has lost, the Kremlin has also disabled Telegram usage. this was widely used on the front line as there is no military coms as such.
Do we think that finally after so many years the Russian economy may be about to properly stop working and funding the war machine? It seems that so many times it has been predicted that finances may be what ends this war.
Do we think that finally after so many years the Russian economy may be about to properly stop working and funding the war machine?
There does seem to be an increase in reporting to this effect recently, and Trump seems to have cut off the flow of oil from Russia to India largely by signing his trade deal the other week.
We can but hope that it happens. Seems a few folk suggest when it collapses it will happen quickly.
President Trump has decided that it's a good idea if Steve Witkoff handles negotiations with Iran, Russia and Ukraine simultaneously in Geneva.
“Trump seems more focused on quantity over quality instead of the difficult detailed work of diplomacy,” said Brett Bruen, who was a foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration and now heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy. “Tackling both issues at the same time in the same place doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
”We’ve seen a hollowing-out of our diplomatic bench,” said former Obama foreign policy adviser Bruen. “So there’s a question of whether we still have the right people to work on these big issues.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-envoys-juggle-two-crisis-talks-raising-questions-about-prospects-success-2026-02-17/
It's circulating on SM that Iran was surprised to be offered Crimea providing it remains nuclear-free, Russia must leave the West Bank and Ukraine will have the Fordow nuclear facility 🤣 🤣
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
No idea if it's either correct or meaningful overall.
Edit, think it probably ties in with @Timba post yesterday
Politics and the intertwined world mean that sanctions are slow and aren't going to solve anything soon, while recent trade deals seem to be at least as effective within a much shorter timescale.
A handful of current pieces:
Ukraine is still finding EU-made components in Russian Geran drones. There isn't any evidence of direct exports and these components are likely either re-directed by third-parties from legitimate sales or the parts stripped from other goods by third-parties.
Hundreds of components made by European companies are still turning up in Russian ‘Geran-2’ attack drones despite EU sanctions aimed at crippling Moscow’s war machine, an investigation by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and media partners has found.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70387
********************
US sanctions, due to end in March, have been extended for another year.
"According to United24, sanctions pressure has pushed Russia’s trade exposure to its lowest level in more than three decades, with figures comparable to the final years of the Soviet Union."
"David O’Sullivan, the EU’s special envoy for sanctions, cautioned that restrictions are “not a silver bullet” and remain vulnerable to circumvention, but added that he is increasingly confident they are weakening Russia’s economic foundations."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70407
********************
Three German subsidiary companies of Russia's PJSC Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft Deutschland GmbH, RN Refining & Marketing GmbH and a subsidiary) were placed under German control through a trusteeship.
The UK, US and others exempted the subsidiaries from sanctioned trade by special licence because they were necessary to Germany's energy supply; 90% of the cars in Berlin and its airport run on fuel supplied by those companies. The companies supply other parts of Germany and Poland as well.
Those licences have different expiry dates by state. The UK licence expires October 2027, the US in April 2026, which is a sticking point because Germany is already sourcing oil for April delivery.
Suppliers, insurers, banks, etc. are all very wary of possibly violating US sanctions if their licence isn't renewed before April's expiry
There's a massive lesson there on over-reliance on a single country, the deeper issues of politics and the intertwined world.
Spring is coming and it would seem like Flamingos are migrating..... Quite a turn around from an earlier attack on the factory by russia.
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
It's been acknowledged on a lot of Russian Telegram channels. Looks legit. In many places though it was just clearing out small pockets of Russians who had occupied buildings in the grey zone, then consolidating those positions. So not really a full on counteroffensive, more a coordinated clear out of dispersed groups of infiltrators. Significant though and highly embarrassing for Putin. There are claims the front line has been pushed back 18 km in some places.
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
It's been acknowledged on a lot of Russian Telegram channels. Looks legit. In many places though it was just clearing out small pockets of Russians who had occupied buildings in the grey zone, then consolidating those positions. So not really a full on counteroffensive, more a coordinated clear out of dispersed groups of infiltrators. Significant though and highly embarrassing for Putin. There are claims the front line has been pushed back 18 km in some places.
Yes, I think that you're right.
The grey zone is a nebulous patch of ground between two separated front lines. From the Ukrainian side it has an occupation gradient that's majority Ukraine with a smattering of Russia, gradually balancing out in the middle with decreasing Ukraine, increasing Russian, as you head towards the Russian side.
In the southern area of the front line(s), Ukraine has consolidated some of its half and in a few small areas consolidated into the Russian half, effectively advancing their front line and decreasing the grey zone. In fewer cases within those few small areas, Ukraine has continued into the accepted Russian front line pushing that back a little as well.
In a fortnight Ukraine has taken full control of some 20 villages and towns in Zaporizhzhia and neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk, regionally "significant though and highly embarrassing".
Ukraine has also reduced the Russian bridgehead on the Haichur river
For the first time it's believed that more Russian troops are hors de combat per month than are being recruited.
Some EU wrangling going on (again):
Hungary has blocked the €90bn loan to Ukraine until it receives Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline.
Slovakia has said that it will stop supplying electricity to Ukraine unless the Druzhba pipeline is restored.
April can't come soon enough, especially if Fico is forced to the polls in Slovakia as well ^^
The EU does have the option of putting an indefinite expiry date on any agreement, saving a repeat performance, but Hungary (along with Slovakia and the Czech Republic) had agreed not to obstruct the loan providing they didn't have to participate in repayment.
“At the European Council meeting in December, a unanimous political agreement was reached to provide €90 billion in resolute support for Ukraine’s budgetary and military needs over the next two years,” (European Commission spokesperson Balázs) Ujvári said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70498
And just for good measure Europe can't agree, can't co-ordinate and can't strategise defence appropriation.
You've agreed the 5%, you're united on reliance on the US and yet there are major issues including:
Germany is reportedly* looking to buy more F35 aircraft because France and Germany can't agree on their European (with Spain) FCAS fighter aircraft project**
The EU Drone Wall project has stalled
*reporting officially denied by Germany
**separate from the Italy/Japan/UK FCAS project
FFS, NATO and your own Generals are telling you that there's likely to be a serious Russian threat within five or so years. Your comms cables are being cut, your airports are being closed by drone threats that you can't counteract, you're suffering sabotage. What more do you need to see?
"The European Drone Wall, presented as a flagship EU initiative to counter Russian hybrid threats, illustrates these divisions. Disputes over technology and governance have stalled the project, leaving it effectively frozen despite its political prominence." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70509
From my superficial reading, the major part of the German/French FCAS going sideways is dassault being dassault, combined with them preferences ng to keep selling the rafaele
Blue Advances, Trading Bombardments, De-Bunking Goofy Ukraine News by Stefan Korshak
Article sections:
News from the front – Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk
Missile Mensheviki
So how’s the damage in Ukraine?
Drones over Russia. Lots of drones. No, seriously, lots and LOTS of Drones
Belarusian angle and electronic warfare
Bad news from Russia
Palliative palaver
Flying tigers over the Dnipro?
The Economist just reported Budanov wants peace now
As usual a couple of explanatory notes:
Don't read too much into the section headline, read the section.
"There were about eight to ten attack operations carried out to capture lightly held villages in the gray zone", which is consistent with my own "full-control" estimate of around twenty settlements, i.e ranging from minimal, if any, Russian presence to "lightly-held".
The sq. km added to "full-control" varies from 200-400 depending on the source. This may be consistent, just over differing time periods, different methodologies, etc.
Ballistic missiles are the least frequently shot down.
This is a recurring problem, partly because the US THAAD system is too expensive for Ukraine's coffers and partly because Patriot PAC3-MSE missiles are in short supply. There is a PAC3-CRI version, but I can't find much info on that; maybe those that know that can jump in?
The numbers of Patriot batteries sent to Ukraine is a double-edged sword. More batteries give more protection. More batteries need more missiles, but there is slow annual production (620 PAC3-MSE in 2025).
A single launcher (one or more in a battery) can hold up to 16 PAC3 missiles and that limited production is spread amongst 20 countries. A seven year agreement was announced last month for accelerated production up to 2000 PAC3-MSE missiles pa.
An interesting linked article on the development of Electronic Warfare (EW) pertinent to drone warfare (needs browser translation from Ukrainian):
The speed of jet-powered drones, e.g. Russia's Geran 5, doesn't matter; EW will always be faster. Speed poses a problem for people shooting at the aircraft.
Signal repeaters and drone-to-drone comms to increase range need different EW approaches. (President Zelensky hinted this week that Russian signal repeaters in Belarus are being taken out of use)
Saving missiles by watching the effects of EW on aircraft; if it flies away from a city, why shoot it down?
EW identifies the drone type and then targets it with specific suppression.
AI targetting can be easily fooled.
EW technologies exist, but they're massively expensive at the scale needed in Ukraine.
The article (finally):
"The number kicking around by Friday is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had liberated about 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) of territory in about five days. Roughly speaking, that’s about one-to-two months of Russian assaults that need to take place for the Russians to recover that ground."
Commander of 1st Assault Regiment, Dmitry “Perun” Filatov said,
“I can assure everyone that we should not expect any grandiose counterattacks from our side. These are actions that are limited to the operational level. But these are important regroupings, important strikes that put the enemy in an awkward position.”"All in all, battles are still in progress, but roughly, the Ukrainians seem to have recaptured in about ten days ground that the Russians fought and bled six months to conquer and then lose, is my read."
"There was more evidence supporting my theory that the Russians are running out of missiles." (Observation on a previous post ^^ that production numbers on Russian missiles are contemporaneous to use)
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/70606
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2026-01-06-Lockheed-Martin-and-Department-of-War-Advance-Landmark-Acquisition-Transformation-to-Accelerate-PAC-3-R-MSE-Production
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/several-already-gone-zelenskyy-hints-ukraine-1771848615.html
https://armyinform.com.ua/2026/02/19/reaktyvna-geran-5-ta-shahedy-yak-ukrayinskyj-reb-gotuye-vidpovid-na-evolyucziyu-povitryanogo-teroru-rf/
Russia has opened a criminal investigation into Pavel Durov, Russian co-founder and CEO of the Telegram app.
The state is cracking down hard alleging that the app is used for drug deals, terrorism, criminal activity, etc. and is compromised by "western" intelligence agencies https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-telegram-messaging-app-has-violated-law-many-times-2026-02-24/
This has just come on iplayer and looks like it's well worth a watch. They've just interviewed the director on Five Live and he's confirmed what everyone long suspected about the way Putin and his generals regard their military. You can't even call them canon fodder. They'd have to be treated considerably better than they are to qualify as that. They are literally regarded (and referred to) as meat.
Some of the stories are absolutely horrific. One guy was forcefully conscripted with 79 other men from his village and sent to the front in 2024. He deserted and said he now knows he's the only one of them left alive. Troops are thrown toward Ukrainian lines in what the generals refer to as 'meat-storms' and are just suicide missions done purely to wear down Ukrainian troops, no matter what the cost. Failure to follow orders to do so leads to torture, then execution
The level of barbarism is absolutely appalling, though unsurprising. Putin really is a monster and god only knows how many dead he has on his hands
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002rxvc
It looks like by focusing their air attacks on Ukranian civilian infrastructure that teh Russians have neglected some of teh front lines, giving teh Ukranians space to counterattack
While Im sceptical the russians are running out of missiles & drones, It looks like their supply is limited and they are not able to ramp up
For the last 200 years Russia has had little regard for its soldiers, seen as peasant cannon fodder. Didn't that nice Mr Stalin say something about quantity has a quality of its own.
I’ve just watched that Zero Line documentary and it makes for truly grim viewing.
Take the drones out of the footage and it’s just First World War trench warfare, complete with officers executing soldiers on the spot for refusal to go over the top. It is terrifying!
It puts Russias dead or injured at 1.2 million, but Putins repression is so complete that there’s nothing anybody can do. There’s no protests as they are just brutally dealt with. He’ll just carry on throwing millions of troops into ‘the meat grinder’ with no ****s given.
I read the BBC article on the documentary, that was saddening enough with torture and humiliation rife.
I'm not sure I want to see the visuals. The words are bad enough.
He’ll just carry on throwing millions of troops into ‘the meat grinder’ with no ****s given.
This is why I don't really get the wider panic about further traditional military aggression after Ukraine. The number of fighting and reproductive age men that have been killed, seriously injured or escaped Russia, plus Ukraine's diligent destruction of their heavy industry is giving to **** Russia for decades even if sanctions are relaxed after a few years. I really can't see them having the capacity to tackle a second modern military force, especially a NATO nation.
Asymmetric warfare, yeah, they could make themselves a right pain in the arse and have serious financial impacts, but expansionism, no, I don't see it.
^^ The Baltic states geographically closest to Russia and perhaps with the best insight into the their psyche are far less optimistic in regard to Putin's Russia.
NATO without US involvement, which can no longer be taken for granted, is still not anywhere near being able to sustain a prolonged war against a foe like Russia that is willing to accept huge fatalities.
Just my take anyway.
is still not anywhere near being able to sustain a prolonged war against a foe like Russia
That seems fair, but I think if Russia did try to make a move on Finland say, they'd get destroyed within few hours of rolling over the border.
^^ The Baltic states geographically closest to Russia and perhaps with the best insight into the their psyche are far less optimistic in regard to Putin's Russia.
And of course they are absolutely correct to be wary and prepared for any incursion.
Also, just my opinion, I'm no expert.
The scenario where Russia carries out a widespread incursion into several European countries at once? Unlikely.
A small scale incursion in the Baltics to test NATO resolve? Likely. Support from the US is no longer a given and some smaller NATO members might be reluctant to invoke article 5 and risk a wider war for something they might see as not their fight. Not only cuckoos in the nest like Hungary, but those to the south and west of Europe like Spain who have been (relatively) reluctant supporters of Ukraine.
There would be a response, but probably a slow and and disjointed one. Russia would probably be pushed back. But NATO would be massively undermined if their hadn't been a swift, cohesive response involving every NATO member. Which there wouldn't be. Russia would see the weakness and try again and again. Rinse and repeat, nibbling away at the edges, pushing all the time. The Baltics initially but Eastern European countries next. Probably not completely annexing these countries, but stealing bits wherever they can.
Alongside asymmetric stuff like pipeline sabotage, electoral interference, assassinations in European countries etc. which they are already doing.
This is what world war 3 looks like. Not thousands of T72s and BMPs flooding through the Suwalki gap and Poland and into Germany as cold war warriors like me prepared for. But still with the risk of nuclear escalation.
This has just come on iplayer and looks like it's well worth a watch.
Watched this yesterday. It's pretty brutal, but very compelling
Ukraine-UK drone manufacturing has now started in Suffolk, deal only agreed in September
Airless tyres available in a variety of sizes including 650b (on request) https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-develops-sectional-airless-wheels-for-military-equipment/
Back to the cycle of reply, reply doesn't appear. CBA to wait 10mins for an edit
Missed the link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0dvjwygk1o
Ukraine struck the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant on Friday with FP5 Flamingo home-grown heavy missiles. This is a first for the missile on a plant that's significant to building Russian solid-fuel ballistic missiles, including Iskander and Oreshnik that have been used to strike Ukraine.
It also produces components for Russia's oil and gas industry.
It's well-known that Flamingo has the radar cross-section of a barn making it an easy target for AD systems and its accuracy is still suspect within the open-source community, however, President Zelensky sees this as a success for a missile that doesn't rely on "foreign" targetting systems, apart from "electronically-hardened" GPS.
"I will not say what quantity of Flamingo was used to strike this time. I only want to say that there were interceptions by the Russian air defense, there were non-interceptions, and there were direct hits. But most importantly, all the missiles that were launched, all of them reached the facility. I believe this is the most significant success; that is, we are speaking about high quality and accuracy," Zelenskyy said at a press conference with the Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre in Kyiv. (source: interfax Ukraine)
There's a full assessment by Fabian Hoffmann, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (link below)
The strike on the Votkinsk plant marks the first confirmed successful use of the Flamingo against a high-value target and, in some ways, represents a comeback for the missile and its manufacturer, which have faced growing criticism in recent months.
If European governments believe they could be involved in a prolonged war of attrition against Russia in the coming years, preparing for such a scenario, including by acquiring the deep-strike capabilities needed to target enemy production, is anything but optional. Europe’s current capability gap in this area, therefore, remains highly concerning.
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-finds-its-target