Forum menu
OPEC+ is due to discuss increasing oil exports on Sunday.
Russia wants the increase kept low because they struggle to export larger quantities than they are now under sanctions, while Saudi Arabia wants to go much higher.The lower levels of increase will tend to boost prices, which suits Russia and its need to maximise income.
Russia got its wish, but the oil market is heading for over-supply so prices won't increase
"With the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and growing ambiguity on the demand outlook, oil prices are likely to stay capped despite OPEC+'s smaller-than-feared output hike," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
"The reality is that the market is gradually shifting toward a phase of oversupply, with seasonal demand expected to taper off into winter and macro data offering little upside impulse," she added. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-open-up-around-1-after-modest-opec-output-hike-2025-10-05/
Despite the fact they probably have around 150 - 200 built, a figure which is due to ramp up considerably in the next few months. What are they keeping them for?
A report from The Economist is widely circulated that Flamingos are starting to be used against targets in Russia. They think that production is still low at 2-3 per day and will rise to 7 by the end of the month.
Hopefully they've cracked whatever was holding them back
Denmark is tightening inspections of ships in a bid to target shadow fleet risks, but only those at anchor
Denmark is stepping up safety checks on ‘worn out’ shadow fleet tankers anchored at Skagen Red
Ships on alert for potential Russian retaliatory measures after French detention of shadow fleet tanker
Russian warship has been anchored in Danish waters for over a week
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155031/Denmark-steps-up-tanker-checks-as-Baltic-shadow-fleet-tension-rises
What's with all the media circus at a few drones entering the air space of certain countries? It's not even doing anything at all.
Basically, it is a warning message of don't play with the fire if they are from Russia, but again nobody knows.
By the way, who cut the Nord stream pipeline?
Russia did it. HTH.
And that "don't poke the bear" line stopped working some time ago. It's mostly for internal Russian propaganda now.
Moldova's Central Electoral Commission today confirmed the results of the Presidential election held on 28th September. This is an election that Russia tried hard to influence, including bomb threats at polling stations, which echoes allegations that were laid at Russia's door by the FBI during the November 2024 US elections in five "swing" states.
For Russia, Moldova has long been a target for destabilisation with the Russian-backed breakaway Transnistria region
Moldova is part of the Kremlin's Russkiy Mir and would form a useful state on Ukraine's border, similar to Belarus and at NATO's southern end
President Maia Sandu's pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) won a majority, but the hard work for her is only just beginning.
She's facing the likelihood of Russian destabilisation following the election, for which Russia has been setting the scene for a while.
In addition, the contract to supply Russian gas to Transnistria, via Ukraine, expired in January. The gas was supplied free and it formed the basis of Transnistria's economy by providing energy, electricity generation and steel. Ukraine warned in 2023 that the pipeline contract wouldn't be renewed.
Transnistria billed Moldova for the gas and electricity and kept the income while Russia used the supply as leverage on Moldova.
Transnistria's economy has been in meltdown since January and has been kept going by cobbled together agreements with energy suppliers in neighbouring EU countries, Moldova and Ukraine, paid for by Russia. Russia has now run out of banks due to secondary sanctions.
Moldova has also been supplied by its neighbours and has in turn supplied Transnistria, but energy costs have risen dramatically to European levels so increasing the chances of successful Russian destabilisation.
ISW has written comprehensively about a possible campaign and what it might look like, but it involves protest and the possibility of invading troops, this time blamed on NATO.
This has echoes of Russia's early invasion of Ukraine and will be a test of "western" resolve following the mistakes of 2014, should it happen as prophesied https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/warning-russia-may-be-planning-violent-protests-after-the-moldovan-elections/
Ukraine adjacent but a few might want to catch Von Der Leyens speech, either that or amuse themselves with some highly agitated Russian bot accounts in the comments maybe...
Despite the US federal government shutdown, the US Senate voted yesterday to pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This is a parallel but different piece of legislation to that passed by the lower House of Representatives; both houses in the US Congress have to agree to the legislation before it passes into law, which means that a period of fettling the two into a single agreed text needs to happen.
The new texts are notable for their bi-partisan support of NATO's eastern border (and the Baltic states in particular) and also impose responsibility for locating children removed from Ukraine by Russia on the US State.
They also reflect US concern about Russia's escalating contraventions of both sovereign and NATO borders
The bill’s success marks a moment of high-level bipartisan consensus on foreign policy, fueled by the immediate threat from Moscow.
The NDAA includes an amendment calling for the immediate return of these children, requiring the US to help locate them, thereby turning the humanitarian tragedy into an official mandate for the Pentagon.
“The message from the Senators is clear: The defense of NATO’s eastern flank is an enduring American priority,” one senior Senate staffer told Kyiv Post.
The key provision that has caught the attention of capitals from Kyiv to Tallinn is the robust authorization and three years of dedicated funding for the Baltic Security Initiative (BSI), a program designed to enhance the defenses of NATO’s frontline members: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61805
https://harvardharrispoll.com/
You'll find some polling on US public opinion on Ukraine on pages 75/76/77 poll dated September 2025.
I do not know how good this polling is.
Majority support for further sanctions, this is higher for Republicans at 86%
Majority support for punitive actions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil/gas, higher amongst Republicans at 66%
Majority support for continuing weapons supply/sanctions, this is higher amongst Republicans at 73%
You'll find some polling on US public opinion on Ukraine on pages 75/76/77 poll dated September 2025.
I do not know how good this polling is.
It's probably supported by other polls. A couple of nutshells from Phillips P. O'Brien in his article Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion,
In a nutshell, Trump seems to be losing control over Republican opinion on the Russo-Ukraine war, in a way that is very different from his hold over the party when it comes to practically every other issue.
In a nutshell, when Putin launched his full scale invasion in February 2022, Republicans and Democrats shared very similar visions of the war and the need to support Ukraine, but within a year the Republicans had become much more sympathetic to Russia and skeptical of aiding Ukraine.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/something-interesting-is-happening (full article)
Majority support for further sanctions, this is higher for Republicans at 86%
Majority support for punitive actions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil/gas, higher amongst Republicans at 66%
Majority support for continuing weapons supply/sanctions, this is higher amongst Republicans at 73%
The elephant in the room is US funding, but personally I'm relieved that Ukraine gets the support and weapons it needs to do as it needs. That levels the playing field with Russia, which is always very reticent to mention its levels of support, weapons and sanctions evasion from elsewhere
Really does feel like things are starting to unravel for the Russians. It's been a long time coming, but their economy seems to be in a very bad way if reports are right and one more shock to that or a big military surprise from Ukraine may push it over the edge. Sincerely hope this isn't just wishful thinking on my part.
Reading that piece from Phillips O'Brien, the interesting question is WHY did Trump flip the GOP from its traditional suspicion of Russia?
Tomahawk missiles have been under consideration since the end of September when it was raised by US VP JD Vance. This sort of delay in decision-making has been associated with a bargaining tool rather than a probable decision, as seen here,
"Regarding European pressure, Howard suggested: “If the US provides Ukraine with Tomahawks, it would undoubtedly increase pressure on Germany, which has thus far resisted providing the Taurus despite significant speculation.”
This move changes the strategic landscape considerably, particularly regarding the Kerch Strait Bridge and its future,” he concluded." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62010
There's an article here about how Ukraine would launch what is primarily a naval missile with details of land-based launchers including "the (US) Marine Corps received four to eight launchers for its now-defunct Long Range Fires (LRF) capability.
Since the US Marines technically abandoned the LRF, it is possible that whatever launchers they have could be transferred to Ukraine."
My understanding is that the USMC want to keep the LRF launchers for training purposes until their new system has been launched (so to speak) https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/62251
President Trump told reporters yesterday that he will be meeting with Putin in “two weeks or so” (or not. The meeting is scheduled for Hungary where the ICC warrant for President Putin's arrest is invalid, however, I think that a meeting in Europe will be seen as an unnecessary risk by Putin, especially as he isn't showing any signs of moving his position on this war)
Trump stated that Putin “really did not like the idea” of the United States sending “a couple thousand* Tomahawks” to Ukraine when Trump raised the question.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2025/
I'm not sure that “a couple thousand Tomahawks" is a serious number according to historical use, production figures and US military purchases planned for FY2026
*According to Pentagon budget documents, the U.S. Navy, the primary user of the Tomahawk, has thus far purchased 8,959 at an average price of $1.3 million each.
The Tomahawk missile has been in production since the mid-1980s. In recent years, production has ranged from 55 to 90 per year. According to Pentagon budget data, the U.S. plans to buy 57 missiles in 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-tomahawk-missile-shipments-ukraine-unlikely-sources-say-2025-10-02/
US pressure on Venezuela seems to be increasing, despite Russia backing away from the idea of deploying Oreshnik missiles there as a counter-balance to Tomahawk in Ukraine.
Russia is now in favour of Cuba as an Oreshnik site in a clear attempt to sway US public opinion; the counter-balance is also widely publicised in Russian media.
Russia is believed to only have a handful of pre-production Oreshnik in any case.
Not sure how Putin could even get to Hungary. North of Ukraine would mean overflying Poland, I can't see them putting up with that. Romania also allied to Ukraine I think if he went south.
Naahhh ... use all the Tomahawks as much as they want, coz they will not have the chance to use or to make them again once the stock is used or depleted. No more raw materials available.
use all the Tomahawks as much as they want, coz they will not have the chance to use or to make them again once the stock is used or depleted. No more raw materials available.
LMAO. WTF is this even supposed to mean? "No more raw materials?" Tomahawks are still in production, how do you think that is happening if there aren't any raw materials to make them? Is this some wishcasting fantasy?
Not sure how Putin could even get to Hungary. North of Ukraine would mean overflying Poland, I can't see them putting up with that. Romania also allied to Ukraine I think if he went south.
It's possible, but it would need special dispensation from each of the countries flown over individually. It isn't either an EU or NATO matter.
Russian aircraft are banned from EU airspace on safety grounds (sanctions on parts), quite apart from the ICC arrest warrant. Hungary has announced its withdrawal from the Rome Statute that enforces ICC matters, but that doesn't come into effect until next year.
PM Netanyahu flew to Hungary in April, even before Hungary's withdrawal announcement, so there's a precedent for the Presidents https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250403-hungary-s-illiberal-orban-israel-s-staunchest-friend-in-the-eu
The "two weeks or so" is quite telling though
LMAO. WTF is this even supposed to mean? "No more raw materials?" Tomahawks are still in production, how do you think that is happening if there aren't any raw materials to make them? Is this some wishcasting fantasy?
I believe you're supposed to pretend the only places some of those raw materials come from are controlled wholly by countries that won't sell to the US. Which is incorrect, but I don't think that's important to the narrative.
Although it is true to a degree that refining capacity is heavily skewed to China, take Cobalt as an example. I'm not sure how much "for military use" the US is relying on that Chinese refining. Especially when they have access to Canada and Australia for the raw Cobalt and anything domestic or possibly Finland for refining.
Also the older tomahawks will need disposing of as they reach end of their life cycle - would it not be cheaper to sell these for what it takes to make new ones than decommissioning at a substantial cost/loss?
Also the older tomahawks will need disposing of as they reach end of their life cycle - would it not be cheaper to sell these for what it takes to make new ones than decommissioning at a substantial cost/loss?
I think that we need to start from the position that the supply of Tomahawks is "unlikely" as blokeuptheroad said ^^ a couple of weeks ago, but it's put the power dynamic with the WH again.
I've no idea of the shelf life of a missile, but the US has used 165 Tomahawks during the last twelve months in strikes on Yemen and Iran. According to wikipedia they get an airing every couple of years, apart from an occasional longer break, so there possibly aren't too many older missiles in storage.
There's a useful round up of the last week from Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, which includes an RTC in London attended by combat medics from Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62439
A slight wrinkle that you'll notice is this,
Thursday
International news agencies quoting the White House say India has cut its imports of Russian energy products by 50 percent.
India refiners buy Guyana oil for the first time ever, from ExxonMobil.Friday
News from India, the government has no idea of a plan to cut oil imports from Russia
I think that it's a combination of two leaders maintaining their respective strong images for the domestic audience and the time that it takes for oil purchases to hit the docks.
Oil bought now won't land until Christmas/New Year and the sheer bulk of India's imports from Russia mean that 50% couldn't be replaced overnight.
The oil from Guyana will fit into a handful of large tankers (or one ultra-large crude carrier) and at best represents three day's worth of imports
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Two Indian refiners have bought 4 million barrels of Guyanese crude oil from U.S. major Exxon Mobil to be delivered at the end of 2025 or in early 2026, in rare imports from the South American producer, trade sources said on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-buy-first-guyanese-oil-exxon-sources-say-2025-10-17/
Anyone have an honest assessment of Pokrosvk?
Anyone have an honest assessment of Pokrosvk?
There's a daily summary on ISW, which seems to be as objective as any other open-source https://understandingwar.org/map/assessed-control-of-terrain-near-pokrovsk-and-myrnohrad-october-18-2025-october-18-2025-at-130-pm-et/
The full article is https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18-2025/
HTH
aaaaand the trump/putin talks are off. I have no idea what's going on anymore 😂
Putin dangled peace talks in front of Trump, who fell for it again, and Putin persuaded Trump to reverse his latest position on Ukraine. He got Tommahawks off the table too. Putin never intended to hold peace talks.
Course they are. At least the Whitehouse frat pack got their shouting in at Zelensky - the guy who started the war.
Europe needs to decouple from that regime.
aaaaand the trump/putin talks are off. I have no idea what's going on anymore 😂
I know the feeling!
On oil and sanctions:
The EU has formally adopted its 19th sanctions package and the US has also imposed new sanctions,
The US Treasury announced on October 22 that its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing further sanctions on Russia as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to the process to end the war in Ukraine. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States is sanctioning Russian state oil company Rosneft and the private Russian oil company Lukoil – Russia’s two largest oil companies – and that the US Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support US President Donald Trump’s effort to end the war. OFAC also blocked all entities of which Rosneft or Lukoil directly or indirectly own 50 percent or more.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2025/
Oil prices have risen 3% because of a variety of factors. One of these is that reports of over-supply may have been over-played and that oil futures are rising. Current oil supply is plentiful, but futures are not so set in stone.
Needless to say, rises will impact markets and action limiting Ukraine's strikes on Russia oil production may be taken (or not) before the US mid-terms, as happened in the Biden-era.
US slaps sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil over Ukraine war
India refiners reviewing their Russian oil purchases
US crude, fuel stocks down on strong refining and demand
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-futures-up-13-after-us-sanctions-russias-rosneft-lukoil-says-more-come-2025-10-22/
aaaaand the trump/putin talks are off. I have no idea what's going on anymore 😂
The biggest area of confusion for open-source public consumption is the number of contradictory statements.
This seems to stem from a difficult to determine WH strategy which leads to free-styling by individuals within the US administration pushing personal agendas.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 22 that US officials stated that the Trump administration lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles, which use US intelligence for targeting, to strike Russian territory. A source reportedly stated that the decision to lift the restrictions occurred before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump on October 17. The WSJ reported that two US officials stated that the Trump administration had not approved any Ukrainian Storm Shadow strikes until recently, when the authority for such strikes moved from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich. US officials reportedly stated that they expect Ukraine to conduct more Storm Shadow strikes against Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that elements of the Ukrainian Air Force, Ground Forces, and Navy struck the Bryansk Chemical Plant in Bryansk Oblast with Storm Shadow missiles on October 21. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the plant produces gunpowder, explosives, and components for rocket fuel. ISW continues to assess that economic instruments coupled with measures that allow Ukraine to maintain pressure on the battlefield are vital to push Putin to reconsider his theory of victory.
Western reporting indicates that the United States called off the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia continued to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war demands in Ukraine. Fox News reported on October 22 that Trump called off a meeting with Putin in Budapest after Russia rejected Trump’s push for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump stated on October 21 that he does not want to have a “wasted meeting.”
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2025/
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has always been pro-Ukraine, and it appears (to me, at least) that Rubio is overcoming the foot-dragging on Ukraine. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby was reportedly behind the decision in June to limit certain weapons being supplied to Ukraine.
An article from The Hill, written back in July by Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet (former US Army intelligence officer) and Mark Toth (national security and foreign policy journalist) was extremely prescient in suggesting that US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich needs to win the battle to arm Ukraine. It says,
Elbridge Colby, President Trump’s Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, is fast becoming the new Jake Sullivan on Capitol Hill — well meaning, perhaps, yet befuddled and self-defeating. In attempting to hoard U.S. military assets, Colby is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — intentionally or not."
"Like the fictional Krook in “Bleak House,” Colby, in part, holds Trump’s key to winning the global war that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are waging against the West. Colby must not be allowed to hoard America’s military might in the Pacific when the path to victory is now alongside our allies in Ukraine. Kurilla won that battle against Colby in Iran. Now, the newly appointed commander of U.S. European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, must do so for Ukraine.
As we argued last month, for Team Trump, World War III begins in Iran and ends in Ukraine."
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5382033-elbridge-colbys-bleak-vision-could-lead-to-ukraines-defeat/
The Wall Street Journal has reported on reasons for the cancellation of the Budapest summit. The venue alone was an appalling choice that the US doesn't appear to have spotted as Russia rubbing US noses in the failed Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that gave Ukraine's nukes up for security guarantees.
It also handily splits the EU from negotiations within the EU and bolsters PM Orban through the peace process ahead of Hungary's GE. Both the US and Russia are friendly with Orban. Orban is still frantically preparing for the summit that now won't be happening, just in case.
The Wall Street Journal reported that officials stated that the October 20 call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,showed that the Kremlin was not compromising on its long-held demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia and that Rubio subsequently briefed White House officials after the call, stating that a summit between Trump and Putin was unlikely to yield positive results."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2025/
The big political question is who limited over-reach by the Dept of Defence, transferred authority to the US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe and allowed US data to be used by Storm Shadows targetting the Bryansk Chemical Plant earlier this week. It's all the more mysterious because President Trump has denied the reports,
US President Donald Trump denied reports that the US had quietly lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some Western-supplied long-range missiles on Wednesday. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62768
The big practical question is whether US gloves are finally coming off sanctions and weapons. A small number (not a "couple thousand") of long-range Tomahawk TLAMs, combined with the necessary US targetting data for all systems, would throw Russia off-balance at this stage. President Zelensky said of Russia that it was "afraid because it is a strong weapon", so why not put a handful into the mix while maintaining US stock levels?
However, this appears to be off the table ATM because President Trump has now gone for the Biden-era F16 logic and pointed to the “tremendous learning curve” of the Tomahawks as the decisive factor.
“The problem with the Tomahawk that a lot of people don’t know, it’ll take a minimum of six months, usually a year, to learn how to use them,” Trump explained. “They’re highly complex.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62773
As we know, F16 proved not to be too difficult for experienced pilots, regardless of the English language barrier.
It was reported yesterday that Ukraine continues to strike Russian miltary manufacturing logistics, including the Makhachkala Oil Refinery, which provides fuel for Russia’s Caspian Flotilla naval base, and the Saransk Mechanical Plant, which provides munitions parts.
I did put an edit in, but it hasn't appeared, which might be an STW time-lag or a problem with the edit pane,
An article from The Hill, written back in July by Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet (former US Army intelligence officer) and Mark Toth (national security and foreign policy journalist) was extremely prescient in suggesting that US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich needs to win the battle to arm Ukraine. It says,
Ukraine appear to have decided they want a lot of Gripens for their air force:
Yup, between 100 and 150, which is a lot (and explained the large jump in the Saab share price yesterday). The JAS Gripen is a good fit for them. Up there with the best in terms of performance, rough/unprepared landing capability, single pilot, can drop/shoot about everything NATO has, cheap, or at least waaaaay cheaper than F35.
The latest version (E?) is just out (like wednesday or something) and is a monster, despite not being stealth.
Russia’s military operation "would look like garbage" without support from China, Iran and NKorea according to a new report.
There's a lesson in there for the other CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, NKorea) states too; don't go to war or you will also become a strategic asset of your "partners".
The most striking assessment came during the expert panel. When asked what Russia’s military operation would look like without the CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, NKorea) partners, Debra Cagan, senior advisor at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, did not mince words.
“It would look like garbage,” she stated, explaining the fundamental dependence. “Russia needs computer chips. They need special metals, rare earth minerals, to continue to have their defense lines running, and they would not be able to do that, especially without China on most of these major pieces of equipment,” she explained.If the political or economic costs of supporting Moscow rise too high—for instance, due to secondary sanctions from the West — China retains the full flexibility to reduce or completely cut off support. Russia, by contrast, is locked in.
This dynamic means China could effectively hold the key to ending the war in Ukraine, but not out of principle. Instead, it is a cold, hard strategic asset Beijing is using to gain leverage against the West and solidify its control over its newly dependent partner.(Angela) Stent’s (author and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute) final policy bottom line: “The US does need to devise a consistent, targeted strategy of seeking to exploit the points of tension between the two countries, however difficult that is.” https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62858
Strategy, strategy, strategy rather than talking up to the line and then walking back again
However, this appears to be off the table ATM because President Trump has now gone for the Biden-era F16 logic and pointed to the “tremendous learning curve” of the Tomahawks as the decisive factor.
“The problem with the Tomahawk that a lot of people don’t know, it’ll take a minimum of six months, usually a year, to learn how to use them,” Trump explained. “They’re highly complex.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/62773As we know, F16 proved not to be too difficult for experienced pilots, regardless of the English language barrier.
Retired US Army General Jack Keane (and current Fox News senior strategic analyst) suggested an option on Fox News during 'The Sunday Briefing' on 26th October.
"They go out seven days a week, fourteen or fifteen hours a day...the Tomahawk would be six weeks. They have exceeded our expectations on everything we've given them"
TBF, the standard US training is six months to a year, but this is when mixed in with other programmes.
The news of successful testing of Russia's latest weapon was released on Sunday.
The 9M730 Burevestnik (Storm Petrel) is a nuclear-powered cruise missile that has been in development for several years and has a somewhat chequered past
The Burevestnik has a poor test record with numerous past failures, according to Western experts. In 2019 at least five Russian nuclear specialists were killed in an explosion and release of radiation during an experiment in the White Sea, and U.S. intelligence sources said they suspected it was part of a test of the Burevestnik. Putin presented their widows with top state awards, saying the weapon they were developing was without equal in the world, although he did not name it. Putin announced a successful test of the missile in October 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/what-is-russias-burevestnik-missile-2025-10-26/
On the surface it doesn't really add anything to Russia's arsenal:
- It's a nuclear-capable cruise missile. They've got them.
- It's probably too big to be air-launched and has to be ground-launched, unlike other missile options.
- It's so big, potentially in the air for so long, sub-sonic, hot and probably spews a radio-active exhaust that it's eminently detectable.
- It's nuclear-powered. Nobody has them because the US and USSR gave up on that in the 1950s.
Putin said on Sunday that he had once been told by Russian specialists that the weapon was unlikely to ever be possible, but now, he said, its "crucial testing" had been concluded. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-tested-new-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile-top-general-says-2025-10-26/
It's so safe and practical that the latest successful test site wasn't mentioned in the initial press release.
Norway's military intelligence service revealed that it was launched from the Arctic Barents Sea archipelago of Novaya Zemlya. This is quite literally the top of the world and a fair bit north of Moscow and its 2024 storage site near to Chebsara (295 miles (475 km) north of Moscow.).
The prevailing winds coincidentally tend to be westward here, rather than eastward (and into Russia) as they are at lower latitudes.
Norway's military intelligence service said on Monday that Russia's test last week of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik long-range cruise missile was launched from the Arctic Barents Sea archipelago of Novaya Zemlya. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-says-russias-burevestnik-missile-was-launched-novaya-zemlya-2025-10-27/
Reference articles:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-tested-new-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile-top-general-says-2025-10-26/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/what-is-russias-burevestnik-missile-2025-10-26/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-researchers-find-probable-launch-site-russias-new-nuclear-powered-missile-2024-09-02/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-says-russias-burevestnik-missile-was-launched-novaya-zemlya-2025-10-27/
The US has decided to withdraw around 1000 troops from Romania, a country bordering Ukraine, which has had Russian drone overflights and sea mines in waters off the Black Sea coast.
Romania says it was notified of US troop downsizing
US focusing on own borders and Indo-Pacific region
NATO says alliance in close contact about deployments
Permanent allied presence in Romania 'sufficient' at 3,500, minister says
Some powerful Republican lawmakers criticise the move
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-will-withdraw-some-troops-stationed-romania-eastern-flank-bucharest-says-2025-10-29/
It's an interesting message to send at a time of Russia testing NATOs eastern borders, but it's not "an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO".
“the decision has sparked rare criticism from congressional allies of Donald Trump, who attacked the Pentagon for announcing the policy without consulting with military commanders or lawmakers” The Guardian.
This might be of interest. Stefan Korshak is always worth reading IME
Street Battles, ‘Critical Situation’ in Pokrovsk
Raiding Russian infantry has seeped within the city limits of a top Putin objective, threatening to encircle it. Ukrainian special forces are engaging in urban warfare.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63226
why aren't they just flattening it like they do with everything else? Can't use artillery like that anymore cos drones?
@timba thanks for the updates. It's useful to have a precis of significant stuff going on when I don't have time to dig myself 👍
Interesting assessment of the UK's contribution to Ukraine's defence and how effective it has been. From off the shelf weapons systems like NLAW, Storm Shadow, AS90 and Challenger 2, innovative and quickly developed "Frankensaam" systems like Gravehawk, drone manufacturing collaborations, training packages (Op INTERFLEX) and lots more. It also highlights the public and cross party political support which has provided continuity and a steadying hand when others (the US) have flip flopped due to their turbulent domestic politics.
Even BoJo, for all his many faults was the first G7 leader to visit Ukraine after the 2022 invasion and that support has been sustained ever since through a change of government. It's actually a pretty positive spin and shows that whatever else they may have effed up, recent UK governments have actually shown some integrity and leadership when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
This channel is run by a former Finnish military officer and defence analyst and is a lot more credible than a lot of the AI voiced, clickbaity rubbish on youtube. Worth a watch if you have 15 mins to spare.
As long as the Russian does not mistake Storm Shadow, Tomahawk etc as carrying nuclear war head(s), they will not retaliate with similar nuclear capable war heads. The problem is that when the Russia suddenly think that a nuclear capable "vessel" is on their way to Russia, they might counter strike immediately. Then the whole place is uninhabitable for several hundred years.
Ukraine doesn't have any nuclear weapons. You've seen the massive hand wringing and fear of "red lines" over permission to use western supplied conventional weapons inside Russia. There is absolutely zero chance of the West ever providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine and Russia knows this. Complete red herring.
Ukraine doesn't have any nuclear weapons. You've seen the massive hand wringing and fear of "red lines" over permission to use western supplied conventional weapons inside Russia. There is absolutely zero chance of the West ever providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine and Russia knows this. Complete red herring.
They don't trust the words of the West or if they suddenly feel very threaten, the melt down begins. All Ukraine needs to do is to create the Franz Ferdinand moment out of desperation, and with the Russians thinking there is a pre-emptive strike from the West/Ukraine they will retaliate accordingly.
Ukraine doesn't have any nuclear weapons. You've seen the massive hand wringing and fear of "red lines" over permission to use western supplied conventional weapons inside Russia. There is absolutely zero chance of the West ever providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine and Russia knows this. Complete red herring.
That's not the point. The point is to say "continue support for Ukraine and you get WW3"
It doesn't have to be credible, it just needs to be "said"
It doesn't have to be credible, it just needs to be "said"
Said, then given a good ignoring as it's bollocks.
Thankfully that's what European countries (bar outliers like Hungary) seem to be doing. In Trump's America? Who knows?