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@willard I agree to a point. Earlier in the war, provision of Tomahawks without targeting constraints would have made a very significant difference. However the failure to do so drove Ukraine to look at other options including domestic development of a range of long range weapons. Some of which actually have a longer range, bigger payload and are significantly cheaper than Tomahawk. Albeit easier to detect and intercept by Russian AD. So things have moved on, Ukraine's innovation means Tomahawk is no longer a big capability upgrade. However its extreme precision and the relative difficulty in stopping it, still make it a very useful weapon for Ukraine to use sparingly when a target requires absolute precision.
In terms of escalation, we've been there before with HIMARS, F16, Storm Shadow etc. etc. There will be a lot of huff and puff which won't amount to anything. Especially as it's fine it seems, for Russia to obtain long range weapons or technical assistance form other countries (Iran, N. Korea, China). It underlines to the Russian people that even Trump's patience with Putin's refusal to negotiate in good faith has run out.
Would a tomahawk be able to take out the Crimea bridge?
No
They carry about a half-ton warhead. I think if one hit at precisely the right spot, it would severely damage it. Multiple strikes at exactly the right spots might cause the deck to collapse on the center span. But, Russia will have jammed GPS in the area so I don't know how precise they would be without that. Just lobbing lots of missiles and hoping to get lucky would just be a waste of missiles.
Would a tomahawk be able to take out the Crimea bridge?
No
They carry about a half-ton warhead. I think if one hit at precisely the right spot, it would severely damage it. Multiple strikes at exactly the right spots might cause the deck to collapse on the center span. But, Russia will have jammed GPS in the area so I don't know how precise they would be without that. Just lobbing lots of missiles and hoping to get lucky would just be a waste of missiles.
At the start of the war I read a thing that a couple of B52's basically carpet bombing it would be rather more effective....Cannot find link now though!
They carry about a half-ton warhead. I think if one hit at precisely the right spot, it would severely damage it. Multiple strikes at exactly the right spots might cause the deck to collapse on the center span.
450kg. The 2022 attack used a truck believed to contain around 23 tons of explosives. So around 50 times bigger than a Tomahawk warhead. It still didn't damage the bridge irreparably. There have been several attacks since, including one below the water against a bridge support this earlier year using over 1 ton of HE. The effects of explosives against structures are amplified under water. Again, it didn't cause severe damage. A tomahawk could probably punch a hole in the deck, but it could be repaired. One and probably several, would not cause irreparable damage to the bridge IMHO.
People underestimate the resilience of large reinforced concrete structures to explosive attack. In a former life I did a lot of explosive trials against hardened structures, sometimes using very considerable quantities of HE. It is way harder than you think to damage them without very considerable quantities of explosives, usually far more than can be carried in the warhead of any missile.
Using shaped charges, tandem warheads etc. you can penetrate them and even cause the warhead to detonate inside a building which is effective. But against a structure like a bridge, penetration is no real advantage. You want the explosive to be in contact with the surface when it functions. Unless you have the luxury of placing multiple (dozens) linked charges on mechanically vulnerable points or drilling into the pillars first as in a prepared demolition, you have to rely on industrial quantities of a very brisant high explosive. The Royal Engineers use 1 ton pallets of plastic explosive for emergency bridge demolitions. Delivered by fork lift in multiples, connected by detonating cord. 5 tons or more would not be unusual to bring down a section of the deck of a small to medium bridge.
Trust me, it would be a waste of Tomahawks.
But, Russia will have jammed GPS in the area so I don't know how precise they would be without that. Just lobbing lots of missiles and hoping to get lucky would just be a waste of missiles.
Tomahawk has pretty sophisticated GPS which is very resistant to jamming and also has INS which is immune to it.
But... If you were the US and you had a bunch of Tomahawks that were nearing the end of their shelf life, I'm guessing you'd be keen on selling them on to someone rather than just writing them off.
Also, they'd get good data on how they perform in actual war with a [relatively] modern air defence network, so win:win for the manufacturer, not quite so win for UKR and a possible win for RU if they shoot a few down or the targets are not too damaged.
If one side is already using cruise missiles (Russia) it’s hardly an escalation if the other side starts using them. Ukraine seems to want them so maybe they have something specific in mind?
Sure there will be bluster from the usual suspects - but that’s all it will be.
Have any Flamingos migrated yet?
Iirc Tomahawk missiles were road tested in gulf war 2. The US used them as first strike weapons on Gaddafis military command centres in Downtown Baghdad.
Very effective on non hardened structure like blocks of flats poorly built in Iraq. Super accurate and were seen flying into windows by journalists before det.
Have any Flamingos migrated yet?
It was reportedly used in Crimea against an FSB base a few weeks ago. This is obviously quite close and doesn't test the Flamingo's very significant reported range. It was probably done in part so they could evaluate accuracy of a new system and do a battle damage assessment somewhere a bit closer to home. Accuracy wasn't great tbh, so there's a little work to do there. There are reports that some of the refinery attacks have been Flamingo, but not confirmed. Ukraine has also used Neptune and other solid fuelled missiles, and plenty of piston engined drones up to light aircraft size against these targets, so it's difficult to say from satellite images alone, which weapon was used. What will point to Flamingo use more convincingly is if they strike targets much deeper into Russia beyond the range of the other systems.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lxyqxm5h3k2a
Gaddafis military command centres in Downtown Baghdad
Helluva long way from Libya, maybe the rent was cheap...
Wrong tyrant. Sorry. Been up since 0400. Saddam Hussein would be the man in question.
Gaddafis military command centres in Downtown Baghdad
Helluva long way from Libya, maybe the rent was cheap...
Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry. (Winston Churchill, 1937)
Tigers are also rubbish at following directions. I can think of one or two in that predicament right now
A bit more on EU spending in Russia; an estimated $20bn in energy and raw materials alone in 2025
Four EU Countries Paid Russia More for LNG Than They Gave Ukraine in Aid, Report Says
The revenue stream from European countries “could be used to fund the purchase of deadly armaments currently being used by Russian forces in their war of aggression against Ukraine,” Greenpeace said.France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands collectively paid Russia more for liquefied natural gas (LNG) than they contributed in bilateral aid to Kyiv between 2022 and June 2025, according to a new report by Greenpeace.
Meanwhile, in May the German tabloid Bild estimated that Russia was on track to generate €20 billion ($22.7 billion) in 2025 from selling energy and raw materials to the EU.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61186
The EU plan to use Russian asset capital of €200bn has foundered. Belgium and the European Central Bank have expressed concerns.
There's also the problem of "normal" EU funding being held up by Hungary. If PM Orban loses the GE, then it's possible that the Czech Republic might step up as blocker following the imminent GE there
The first is a plan to use roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets to provide long-term financing for Ukraine. The Commission outlined the idea last week in a short, loosely sketched note to member states, emphasizing it would avoid outright confiscation – a move fraught with legal risk that could also spark economic blowback.
Friedrich Merz backed the proposal. But Belgium, where most of the assets are held, has savaged it, with Bart De Wever warning his country cannot be left carrying the risk. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, also expressed frustration at the Commission for failing to explain how the plan would workSome suggest it reflects the absence of better alternatives, short of waiting for Hungary’s election next year and hoping Orbán is voted out. By then, the Czech Republic might be led by his ally Andrej Babiš.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61137
Problems at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been going on for a week now with emergency diesel generators providing power after the power lines were cut.
This something of a hardy-perennial, but Russia seems not to be in a rush to sort it out this time. One theory is that it'll be used as an excuse to connect into Russian-occupied territories relieving problems there. The IAEA is negotiating
‘This Is a Threat to Absolutely Everyone’– Zelensky Warns of ‘Malfunctioning’ Nuclear Power Plant
“It has been seven days now. There has never been anything like this before,” Zelensky said in his nightly address on Tuesday about the Zaporizhzhia plant. “The situation is critical.”“Emergency diesel generators are considered a last line of defense to be used only in extreme circumstances,” NGO Greenpeace Ukraine said.
The group claimed Moscow could use the crisis “to try and reconnect to the temporary Russian-occupied grid of Ukraine,” to restart one of the reactors later.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61188
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been raising military morale in the US with a rousing critique of the path of "Ideological Garbage"
Pentagon Chief Pledges Major Military Overhaul, Criticizes ‘Ideological Garbage’
Speaking to generals called in from bases worldwide, he said the department would remove identity-focused programs, diversity offices, and other initiatives he called divisive or distracting.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61170
Perhaps he ought to speak to people that have fought alongside diverse groups and consider why they're being encouraged
Female Combat Medic Destroys Russian Assault Group, Awarded for Heroism
With her unit surrounded and no one in command, Svitlana took over, seized a grenade launcher, and used it to wipe out the group of enemy attackers.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/52529As Russia continues to pound Ukraine, efforts to defy Vladimir Putin’s war machine have been boosted by the presence of 60,000 women serving in the country’s armed forces, with 10,000 in combat roles.
Now, the story of one of these women has been turned into a book by the acclaimed journalist Lara Marlowe.
Titled ‘How Good It Is I Have No Fear of Dying,’ Marlowe’s book centers itself on the life of Yulia Mykytenko, a 29-year-old lieutenant commanding a frontline reconnaissance and attack unit. Described by Marlowe as “one of the most extraordinary people I’ve met in 42 years of journalism,”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42877
Thanks for information Timba. What's happening in the background inevitably has a big impact on the frontline.
Russia's oil shadow fleet is under suspicion for the recent drone flights over Denmark. Boracay (aka Pushpa, aka Kiwala also detained and later released by Estonia in April).
Astrol and Oslo Carrier 3 (both are freighters) were also in the vicinity and have links to Russia
The French Navy on Tuesday said authorities were investigating a suspected infraction by the Benin-flagged oil tanker Boracay, a vessel which is listed under British and European Union sanctions against Russia.
The EU said the vessel was linked to the transport of Russian crude oil and petroleum products "while practising irregular and high-risk shipping practices".
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250930-france-investigates-oil-tanker-listed-under-russia-shadow-fleet-sanctions
Problems at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been going on for a week now with emergency diesel generators providing power after the power lines were cut.
It's not clear from the article whether the problem is a risk of nuclear accident, loss of generation capacity or potential for dubious Russian actions. The reactors are in cold shutdown, so shouldn't be at risk of release, and aren't generating any power. If the risk is that Russia may restart them for political purposes, that would be serious. They do need to stay in cold shutdown until the fighting stops.
It's for another thread not here but Pete Hegseth / Dogbreath and his address to the assembled top brass was awkward, at best. Very cringeworthy. General Mark Milley might have an opinion.
Problems at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been going on for a week now with emergency diesel generators providing power after the power lines were cut.
It's not clear from the article whether the problem is a risk of nuclear accident, loss of generation capacity or potential for dubious Russian actions. The reactors are in cold shutdown, so shouldn't be at risk of release, and aren't generating any power. If the risk is that Russia may restart them for political purposes, that would be serious. They do need to stay in cold shutdown until the fighting stops.
ZNPP has six spent fuel wet pools that need cooling.
They were compacted about ten years ago, which makes it more of a risk.
There's dry spent fuel storage too, but that isn't a cooling risk
US to give Ukraine intelligence on long-range energy targets in Russia
Summary
US also asking NATO to provide similar intelligence - officials
US mulling Ukrainian request to for long-range Tomahawk missiles
Trump recently backed Kyiv retaking land in apparent about-face
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-provide-ukraine-with-intelligence-missile-strikes-deep-inside-russia-wsj-2025-10-01/
An AI-powered autonomous machine gun called the "Bullfrog" has been successfully tested in the US (apart from the gun jamming). Priced around $350,000 and can swivel 400° in less than a second (why not 360°? Faster, I guess)
But now he is the co-founder of a different kind of startup, Allen Control Systems, which makes a product far removed from menu QR-codes: an AI-powered autonomous machine gun called the "Bullfrog" designed to shoot drones out of the sky.
During a demo for the U.S. Army, intelligence community and investors last month at a ranch in Austin, the Bullfrog’s M240 machine gun was mounted on the back of a pickup truck and pelted bullets at drones in the sky. After shooting a burst of about a half dozen rounds, one drone fell from the sky in flames.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/how-silicon-valley-warlord-got-pentagons-attention-2025-10-01/
It chambers the belt-fed 7.62x51mm NATO cartridge, of which there must be billions in the world. The M240 machine gun is under possible replacement in the US
Fuel oil used in ships and power plants is seeing unexpected demand.
"While global demand for diesel and jet fuel have fallen globally since 2019 pre-pandemic levels, and gasoline consumption has risen by just 1.9%, fuel oil demand is up by 4.8% to an average 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s June annual report."
In an oil exporting irony, Russia's oil "shadow fleet", estimated at 1,200 to 1,600 tankers
"consume more than 106,000 bpd, or about 2% of global demand, based on Reuters calculations using 2023 bunker data from the International Maritime Organization.
"Many of these vessels will be proverbial rust buckets that are more than 15 and, in some cases, even older than 20 years," said FGE's Eugene Lindell, adding that these ships are less fuel-efficient and undertake long-haul routes, further increasing fuel oil consumption."
Western sanctions on Russia have also contributed, with Saudi Arabia importing discounted Russian fuel oil to free up more of its own crude for export.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fuel-oil-demand-defies-forecasts-due-red-sea-disruptions-shadow-fleet-expansion-2025-10-02/
Russia's oil shadow fleet is under suspicion for the recent drone flights over Denmark. Boracay (aka Pushpa, aka Kiwala also detained and later released by Estonia in April).
PARIS, Oct 2 (Reuters) - French police have arrested two crew members of a tanker suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet after the French navy boarded the vessel over the weekend, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said in a post on X on Thursday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/two-crew-members-detained-russian-tanker-have-been-arrested-french-pm-says-2025-10-02/
Defeat of Ukraine would embolden China towards Taiwan, Taiwanese officer says in Poland
TAIPEI, Oct 2 (Reuters) - If Russia defeats Ukraine it will embolden China's moves towards Taiwan and Taipei hopes that Kyiv emerges victorious, a senior uniformed Taiwanese military officer said this week in a rare visit to Europe to attend a security forum.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/defeat-ukraine-would-embolden-china-towards-taiwan-taiwanese-officer-says-poland-2025-10-02/
Would this be the same Taiwan that is the world's leading importer of Russian naptha, an oil product that can be bought from many countries, including Japan that's half the distance away (or China, but I get that one)?
"Taiwan Tops List of Russian Naphtha Buyers, Despite Backing Ukraine
Naphtha, a petroleum product crucial in making semiconductors, underpins Taiwan’s biggest industry and plays a central role in global supply chains.
That figure marks a 44% rise from the same period last year and represents nearly six times the monthly average in 2022, before the full impact of sanctions took hold.
“This is opportunism by Taiwan’s petrochemical industry,” said John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, as quoted by The Guardian."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61246
can swivel 400° in less than a second (why not 360°? Faster, I guess)
To respond to a sneaky drone coming in from below the platform the gun is mounted I'd guess.
An AI-powered autonomous machine gun called the "Bullfrog" has been successfully tested in the US (apart from the gun jamming). Priced around $350,000 and can swivel 400° in less than a second (why not 360°? Faster, I guess)
But now he is the co-founder of a different kind of startup, Allen Control Systems, which makes a product far removed from menu QR-codes: an AI-powered autonomous machine gun called the "Bullfrog" designed to shoot drones out of the sky.
During a demo for the U.S. Army, intelligence community and investors last month at a ranch in Austin, the Bullfrog’s M240 machine gun was mounted on the back of a pickup truck and pelted bullets at drones in the sky. After shooting a burst of about a half dozen rounds, one drone fell from the sky in flames.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/how-silicon-valley-warlord-got-pentagons-attention-2025-10-01/It chambers the belt-fed 7.62x51mm NATO cartridge, of which there must be billions in the world. The M240 machine gun is under possible replacement in the US
Aside from the AI bollocks, it sounds a bit like a (much) cheaper version of Phalanx?
Ukraine have also apparently been testing a laser anti-drone weapon. Dragonfire (uk laser weapon) is still in development, I know there was talk about sending demonstrator units over a while back but I'm not sure if the recent tests were that or a Ukrainian home-grown system. I presume dragonfire is very very expensive! (to build, not to fire)
Case dismissed
HELSINKI, Oct 3 (Reuters) - A Finnish district court ruled on Friday that Finland does not have jurisdiction to prosecute the captain and two officers of the Eagle S oil tanker, who were accused of breaking undersea power and internet cables in the Baltic Sea.
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/finland-lacks-jurisdiction-baltic-sea-cable-breach-case-court-says-2025-10-03/
Soooo, who does have jurisdiction then I wonder?
In international waters and in practice, nobody. It's on the country of origin of either the ship or person responsible https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/hybrid-warfare-project/international-law-doesnt-adequately-protect-undersea-cables-that-must-change/
Update 318 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
Loss of external power to both Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and the New Safe Confinement at the Chornobyl site
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-318-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
And a bit further afield than Ukraine and the Baltic Sea
Russia targets UK military satellites on weekly basis
“I would say the Chinese have by far the more sophisticated capability but the Russians have more will to use their counterspace systems,” (Major General Paul Tedman, British Army) explained to the BBC.It came after German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius issued a similar warning last month, saying that Russia’s behaviour, “especially in space, poses a fundamental threat to us” as he revealed that Moscow had been stalking satellites used by the German military.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gkyl1j6n9o
And on imports and exports by Russia:
It's widely reported that thousands of trucks carrying goods from China are queuing at the border from Kazakhstan into Russia. Kazakhstan has tightened border checks for sanction-busting in the last few weeks. There are between 2000 and 7500 trucks waiting (wide reporting, lots of sources)
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OPEC+ is due to discuss increasing oil exports on Sunday.
Russia wants the increase kept low because they struggle to export larger quantities than they are now under sanctions, while Saudi Arabia wants to go much higher.
The lower levels of increase will tend to boost prices, which suits Russia and its need to maximise income. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-another-oil-hike-saudi-russia-debate-size-sources-say-2025-10-03/
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Russia is having to import petrol to alleviate mounting problems amongst the general population. It's made the media too, "a source familiar with supply balances told Russian newspaper Kommersant the situation is critical." Russian fuel import tariffs have been lifted until June.
Russia hasn't been able to get oil and gas industry spares from major companies since the beginning of their 2022 invasion and copies won't crack (sorry) the problem.
At its most basic level, Russian workers can't get to the factories and fields to supply their army in Ukraine.
Belarus has swapped a future new-build nuclear power plant (NPP) for discounted petrol; the last NPP was completed in 2021 and cost $11bn. That's a punishing deal, however Russia has agreed a discounted price for the fuel now, which overall tells us something about the financial situation currently
“This is a fuel crisis in Russia, which directly affects logistics and the supply of its army,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 26 September.
Ukraine’s General Staff revealed in mid-August that 42% of its long-range strikes since January targeted oil refineries, making them the most frequently hit target category.
The ongoing campaign has knocked out 38% of Russian refining capacity, up from 13.5% in mid-August. https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/01/russia-fuel-crisis-drone-strikes/
ZNPP has six spent fuel wet pools that need cooling.
They were compacted about ten years ago, which makes it more of a risk.
Ah, thanks, that makes sense.
More ships hit...
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-struck-russias-missile-ship-grad-in-karelia-military-says/
I don't normally make comment on specific frontline situations, but here are a couple that stand out for Ukraine's development of tactics where massed air support is difficult:
This is interesting for the use of mutual support to prevent the Russian assault on Lyman. Air-launched bombs that can be launched from 50 miles away destroy Russian bridging attempts, FPV drones strike individual tanks and then the massed firepower of artillery on access routes and staging areas
GBU-39 air-launched bombs resisting Russian GPS jamming is worth keeping an eye on too. These are a component that needed "hardening" to make the Boeing-SAAB Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb viable. This removes the need for aircraft and can be launched from any HIMARS or similar platform https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb
The GBU-39 air-launched bombs that Ukrainians are using show incredible resistance to Russian GPS jamming, as a total of five bridges were hit and completely destroyed.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian FPV drone operators are striking Russian tanks as they are moving up their remaining reserves all the way near the frontline, most notably scoring a confirmed hit on a modern T-90M Proryv tank near the village of Terny.The 52nd Separate Artillery Brigade, created and publicized through volunteer fundraising and unit announcements, has been added.
Notably, this unit sports domestically produced Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems, alongside other 152-155 millimeter tube artillery. This addition places significantly more sustained firepower directly to the Lyman sector, able to engage river approaches, road nodes, and staging areas repeatedly and accurately, while moving away before being hit by Russian counterbattery strikes.By contrast, Ukraine's layered interdiction, combining air and FPV strikes with persistent tube artillery fires and targeted air strikes, turns approach roads and river crossings into kill zones rather than simple avenues of advance.
If this pattern holds, Lyman will be defended in depth, as the town itself will remain protected and surrounding by pre-designated fire zones and zeroed in highly mobile artillery systems as even Russian infiltration groups will now come under constant Ukrainian artillery fire.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/04/frontline-report-2025-10-03/
The other is a former Ukrainian officer who defected in 2014 to Russia and has the ignominy of running poorly executed offensives and is currently in Kupiansk
Lieutenant General Serhii Storozhenko, in fact be Ukraine’s best spy?
Storozhenko was once a decorated Ukrainian officer, the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade. But during the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, he defectedOverall, a general once branded by Russians as a loyal defector to Russia is now presiding over a catastrophe so severe that Russian soldiers do not know whether to question his competence or allegiance. The irony is bitter: a man who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 may have turned out to be the single most effective instrument of Ukraine’s defense, orchestrating Russian defeats from within their own chain of command.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/03/frontline-report-kupiansk-became-a-graveyard-for-russias-6th-army-and-its-still-digging-deeper/
He probably isn't an instrument of Ukraine's development of tactics, but he appears to make up for a lack of massed air support by Ukraine
An interesting video from APN considering the development of Ukrainian long range strike capability and how they might use it over the winter and beyond. A capability that only Russia had at the beginning of the war, but which Ukraine has now developed from necessity and how this gives them leverage they didn't have even a year or so ago.
It considers why Ukraine is seemingly stockpiling their "Flamingo" cruise missiles? They've not really been used in the refinery and oil infrastructure attacks. In fact there has only been one confirmed use (against Russian forces in Crimea) so far. Despite the fact they probably have around 150 - 200 built, a figure which is due to ramp up considerably in the next few months. What are they keeping them for? How would they use Tomahawks if they get them (unlikely)?
Russia has already begun attacks on Ukrainian domestic energy infrastructure in the lead up to winter in a bid to weaken the resolve of the civil population to keep fighting. This will be the 4th winter they have done this, without achieving their aim and with Ukraine getting more resilient and adept at swift repairs as time goes on. Zelensky has said that if they continue, Ukraine will respond in Kind. Potentially plunging Moscow into darkness and freezing the population in their inhospitable winter. Is this simply an attempt to deter Russia, or will they follow through?
This is illegal under the international laws of armed conflict, but as Russia don't give a toss about that, would Ukraine be morally justified by responding in Kind after 4 years of having to take it on the chin? APN claims there is an argument that the Russian population would be less resilient and able to deal with such tactics than Ukraine has been. I doubt that. My personal view is that attempts to break civilian resolve by aerial bombardment don't work and often have the opposite effect of hardening resolve. I can't see it being any different in Russia and indeed there are enough historical examples of Russia's ability to endure hardship to confirm that.
Ukraine would be far better imo using their long range strike capability to hammer oil and chemical infrastructure, munition and electronics factories, railheads, ports, aerodromes and military bases. Stay "legal" keep international support onside and degrade Russia's ability to earn foreign income and to wage war. It is already having a significant effect and increasing strike capability will only exacerbate this.
It is interesting though how the scales are tipping. How things Russia could once do with impunity now might have consequences and how indigenous capability driven by the existential threat has given Ukraine the confidence, backed up by capability to meaningfully threaten Russia.
I think the gloves can come off when your enemy starts double tapping civilians on a train with targetted drone strikes , followed up secondary attacks once the civilian emergency service arrives on scene.
I think random things that on the surface might not seem to have a big impact but massively inconvenience thousands of Russian people would be totally legit now. Petrol tankers , electric sub stations , food warehouses , telecom hubs , TV masts , railway train depot etc
But will that hasten the end of the war, or is it wasting a precious resource simply for "vengeance" which might feel cathartic and justified, but historically has been shown not to win wars? I think it would be a mistake. It could lose them the international support they rely on. Ukraine is having great success attacking Russia's key revenue earning commodity and their military infrastructure. I think they should maintain and expand that.
there is an argument that the Russian population would be less resilient and able to deal with such tactics than Ukraine has been. I doubt that.
That was the same argument used in the WWII bombing of Germany. With their "stiff upper lip" the plucky Brits would pull through but the regimented German population wouldn't cope and sue for peace.
My grandad was in the Civil Defence in London so was dealing with the Blitz, V1s & V2s. I was surprised that he thought we shouldn't have targeted civilians in retaliation having been on the receiving end/seen the aftermath. His view was that we should only attack military targets and not stoop to their level.
I'm not talking about a Desdren style carpet bombing raid . More indirect infrastructure, like a railway bridge that carries workers and materials to a steel works, just need to move a single track by a meter and it's out of use for a time . Ditto coach park that carries workers to a tyre factory. No lorry tyres for a while means moving stuff by road becomes harder.
I think the quickest way to end all the stupid waste of lives is from within Russia, regime change by coup , and a negotiated withdrawal. The harder it is to carry on as normal or keep up with resupply the more likely that is to happen. Indiscriminate destruction of peoples homes does the opposite.
Despite the fact they probably have around 150 - 200 built, a figure which is due to ramp up considerably in the next few months. What are they keeping them for?
I think that the accuracy was at the lower end as demonstrated in Crimea and they'll be looking to improve that
How would they use Tomahawks if they get them (unlikely)?
Tomahawk seems to be unlikely as you suggest, mainly because production rates are low and the US Navy needs stock, having said that the Russian media machine is acting as though it's extremely likely so who knows?
In an interview published Oct. 5, Putin warned that US provision of Tomahawk missiles would “lead to the destruction” of an “emerging positive trend” in ties between Washington and Moscow. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61501
As far as using them is concerned ISW produced a map https://understandingwar.org/map/russian-military-and-security-service-objects-within-range-of-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-in-the-russian-federation-control-of-terrain-assessment-as-of-october-3-2025/