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What’s the message? That Europe can’t concentrate it’s defences anywhere?
It's probably about rattling the NATO cage and upsetting politicians. There are plenty, often further west and insulated, who would drop support for EU/NATO actions if they thought that it would cause more Russian aggression and economic loss, especially with the uncertainty of US support
It's noticeable that some of the greatest NATO contributions by GDP come from the east: Poland 4.12%, Estonia 3.43%, Latvia 3.15%, Lithuania 2.85%.
The US, contrary to claims about funding "close to 100%" of NATO, is third in that list and double-counts lots of expenditure simply because it has fingers in so many pies. Kit for Taiwan and SKorea is also in the NATO pot
The difference from the norm is that it took aircraft capable of almost 2000mph an alleged 12 minutes to cut a 40 mile corner. The recordings haven't been released so the public don't really know.
The Estonian Defence Force has now released a record of the flight path taken by the three Russian MiG31 aircraft. The twelve minutes equates to about 135 miles (220km) by my ruler
The violation went a long way west and well outside Russian controlled airspace
Poland has blocked the transit of freight by train arriving from china via Belarus. This is causing major problems in the Belarus train network apparently.
The violation went a long way west and well outside Russian controlled airspace
Huh, they should be shot down next time, the debris would only fall into the sea so no risk to Estonian citizens.
(I am not an international diplomat)
Huh, they should be shot down next time, the debris would only fall into the sea so no risk to Estonian citizens.
why? F35/F22/whatever 4th gen vs those clapped out soviet rustbuckets would be seal clubbing. They'd have been deleted almost as soon as they got into the air if that what the NATO forces wanted. We know this, they know this, getting baited into killing some russian pilots would be counter productive.
I'm fairly sure the NATO planes would have had a weapons lock on them, and they would have known about it. If they know you could shoot them down, you don't actually have to do it (unless you're really at war)
Putin would shoot down NATO jets in Russian territory in a heartbeat, he's testing and probing NATO's responses to this behaviour why not give him the full **** about, find out answer.
As I said above, I'm probably not the man to be leading the UK's consular response to such provocations. 😁
Can you force them to land at an airbase before threatening to shoot them down?
Turkey shot one down with no apparent repercussions.
Does this transgression differ in any way to Blackbirds over the USSR?
Turkey (a NATO member) shot down a Russian jet. World war 3 didn’t start an d I bet Russia doesn’t overfly their airspace any more .
Kaliningrad has been cut off from the Russian power grid.
All this activity in the Baltic makes me think that my upcoming city break to Tallinn might be a bit more spicy than I thought when I booked it.
Can you force them to land at an airbase before threatening to shoot them down?
Airliners tend to give up to fighter aircraft, like Ryanair flight 4978 did in 2021 while flying over Belarus. I'd imagine that a military aircraft is less likely to surrender IANAP
Turkey shot one down with no apparent repercussions.
This is doing the rounds, but times were different then. Russia held massive advantages in sanctions over Turkiye, from stopping Russian tourism to energy supplies.
Militarily, Russia parked a naval fleet up, attacked Turkish-aligned forces in Syria, etc.
Russia and NATO were co-operating to get rid of IS. Russia always uses the possibility of prising countries out of NATO, which together meant that a confrontation with NATO was low on the list.
A few months later and there was a coup attempt in Turkiye and the Turkish aircrew was arrested as possibly being involved in setting the scene. President Erdogan publicly apologised to Russia and eventually things settled back down https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-apologizes-to-vladimir-putin-for-shooting-down-russian-jet/
Does this transgression differ in any way to Blackbirds over the USSR?
Legally, countries can shoot aircraft down if the circumstances are in their favour. Whether it's diplomatically and politically wise is another matter.
The U2 shoot down was a CIA aircraft at the height of the Cold War, a subtlety that the US felt was important because it wasn't "military". They described it as a NASA weather research tool, but unfortunately for them the reconnaissance film was recovered and didn't show clouds but did prove spying against the pilot, Gary Powers.
Russia won both diplomatically and politically
Compare and contrast those incidents (and most importantly the background circumstances) with today
Kaliningrad has been cut off from the Russian power grid.
That was planned ages ago and in February the Baltic states transferred from the Russian power grid to the European grid. Russia built lots of power stations in Kaliningrad.
AIUI this is the final bit of redundant Russian infrastructure being removed from Lithuania
Has Russia carried on overflying Turkey ?
Poland says it will shoot down any future Russian aerial incursion. Okay.
I have some Lithuanian friends in Spain, they lived in the UK for a bit before going to spain- they have absolutley no love for the Russians, to put it very politely.
All this activity in the Baltic makes me think that my upcoming city break to Tallinn might be a bit more spicy than I thought when I booked it.
I would be more worried about the pick pockets and local 'characters' who follow early morning solo runners and try to stop them for a 'chat'...from experience.
Has Russia carried on overflying Turkey ?
They did it again a few weeks later. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35449152
Shortly after that some NATO nations, including France and Germany, reportedly warned that they wouldn't support Turkiye if they escalated again
I have some Lithuanian friends in Spain, they lived in the UK for a bit before going to spain- they have absolutley no love for the Russians, to put it very politely
A lot of history going on there. I lived in Czechia in the late 00s and my GF at the time was Belarusian. Although she could speak fluent Czech, she generally pretended not to, as the Czechs were less likely to notice her Russian accent when she spoke English instead, and she'd be treated much more nicely.
I have some Lithuanian friends in Spain, they lived in the UK for a bit before going to spain- they have absolutley no love for the Russians, to put it very politely.
It's worth remembering that there are a lot of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states, so that view is by no means universal.
We3ll, like I said, I'll be there (assuming no WW3) in a couple of weeks, so I will ask around. I think I still have a press card somewhere...
Back to this thread for a catch-up read...
The Drone Wall Project. Hungary and Slovakia are sidelined, finally .... Not paywalled.
https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-hungary-excluded-from-initial-eu-drone-wall-talks/
The Drone Wall Project. Hungary and Slovakia are sidelined
Not sure why you'd include them in the first place. You can either participate in working with your neighbors to defend against imperialism, or prioritize getting yourself an enormous mansion as Orban has done.
Good morning [teacher], I can't attend classes for two weeks
I am going to Ukraine to process the paperwork for my destroyed house
Sorry, Lyudmila
F*ck Putin
Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure continue on a daily basis. Several major refineries have been hit in the last 24 hours, some for the second time this week. Because many spares are not made in Russia they are in short supply due to sanctions. Ukraine has been deliberately waiting until repairs have been carried out using scarce spares, before striking again. It's taking longer and longer and apparently the limited number of teams with the tech skills to bring facilities back on line are run ragged and massively overstretched.
Ordinary Russians, even in Moscow are feeling this now. A lot of people for whom the war was an abstract, distant concern are now feeling its effects. More importantly, Russia's main export and means of paying for its aggression is being degraded day on day. Of all the innovative Ukrainian tactics, even over and above spectaculars like sinking the Moskva, "Op Spiders web" and the Kerch bridge attack, I think it's this that will tip the balance. It's not widely reported, it's not spectacular but it's relentless and highly effective.
That's an interesting one as well. Bulgaria to Georgia, fag-packet longest distance in the Black Sea, about 1000km, but Toloka TLK-1000 expensively over-engineered at double the range. I think that's more of an export item, but it could be used in specific operations locally.
There has been a bit more technical detail released about these and it seems they have a loitering capability of up to 60 days. So the range isn't necessarily straight line, it could be a patrolling pattern waiting for an opportune target. A warship entering or leaving Novorossiysk for example.
The fuel infrastructure strikes are supported by Ukraine's strikes on chemical factories, most recently EuroChem-Belorechensk Mineral Fertilizer plant overnight.
This is a follow up to earlier strikes on Azot plants in May and June
The Nevinnomyssk Azot plant produces up to one million tons of ammonia and more than one million tons of ammonium nitrate annually – both used in the production of explosives and artillery shells. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/56950
This will slow Russia's war machine massively in the production of explosives and propellants as well as its agriculture.
Russians aren't strangers to petrol shortages because producers will export for more profit than to an artificially-priced domestic market. The state started to compensate producers in 2019 to prevent this, but shortages occurred in 2021 and petrol prices reached a record in September 2023 because subsidies were reduced. September is a traditional peak month for shortages and prices anyway.
The Druzhba oil pipeline was targeted to change Hungary and Slovakia's buying habits, but also to prevent Russia transporting oil to refineries in Belarus. While Russia has crude they will find refiners, so expect to see more pumping station and pipeline strikes. These are quickly repaired within a couple of days and Russia also has refined fuel reserves.
Russia has started to accelerate a campaign targeting Ukraine's trains that form a major logistical route.
It's now all about logistics
That's an interesting one as well. Bulgaria to Georgia, fag-packet longest distance in the Black Sea, about 1000km, but Toloka TLK-1000 expensively over-engineered at double the range. I think that's more of an export item, but it could be used in specific operations locally.
There has been a bit more technical detail released about these and it seems they have a loitering capability of up to 60 days. So the range isn't necessarily straight line, it could be a patrolling pattern waiting for an opportune target. A warship entering or leaving Novorossiysk for example.
Absolutely👍
Just re-reading my post about petrol shortages^^
This isn't intended to imply that it's business as usual in Russian O&G; the shortages that @blokeuptheroad highlighted are unusual and are because of Ukraine's actions. Russia is finding ways to alleviate the pressure as ^^ because they have seasonal experience.
Russia is producing crude oil at near capacity according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER HIKES
OPEC+ is due to raise production by 547,000 bpd in September and a further 137,000 bpd in October.
Data for those months is not yet available but actual production increases will likely represent only half of targets, analysts said.
OPEC+ members Algeria, Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia are already producing near capacity, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-is-poised-slip-further-below-oil-output-target-2025-09-26/
The tipping point will come when crude oil production has to be reduced because Russia can't export it and can't refine it and we're believed to be close to that point.
The price of crude oil is rising because OPEC+, of which Russia is a member, cannot produce the increased volumes forecast. There is the possibility of the US pressuring Ukraine to reduce its attacks as they did under President Biden
To preserve domestic supplies Russia is extending its ban on petrol exports and introducing a partial ban on diesel exports. The petrol ban isn't a full ban, but continues inter-governmental exports to other countries
MOSCOW, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Russia will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was quoted as saying on Thursday, following a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.
The attacks have reduced Russian oil refining by almost a fifth on certain days and cut exports from key ports. The fall in capacity to refine oil has pushed Moscow close to reducing crude output. Several Russian regions are facing shortages of certain grades of fuel. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-plans-partially-ban-diesel-exports-until-end-2025-ifx-reports-2025-09-25/
Russia's defence budget for 2026 has been reduced from that of 2025, VAT to increase from 20 to 22% in January 2026
O&G revenues as a share of the overall budget forecast to decrease to 20-22% in 2026
"Continued or worsening gasoline shortages, possibly coupled with rising inflation due to the VAT increase, may fuel additional social discontent in the near future." ISW
Reuters reported on September 24 that it viewed documents from the Russian Finance Ministry stating that Russia plans to allocate 12.6 trillion rubles (about $150 billion) to “National Defense” spending in 2026 — down from 13.5 trillion (about $160 billion) in 2025.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov claimed on September 18 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales funding the Russian federal budget to be about 20 to 22 percent in 2026, which Siluanov noted is a decrease from about 50 percent previously. The Kremlin is likely seeking other revenue streams as oil and gas revenues, on which Russia has relied to fund its war in Ukraine, are decreasing in the face of impending Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure.
Russia continues to suffer from gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Kremlin officials are attempting to downplay the gasoline shortages to domestic audiences as a result of reduced production at refineries, however. Several milbloggers from Russia’s ultranationalist community — one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most important constituencies — complained about the gas shortages and rising taxes on Russian citizens. Continued or worsening gasoline shortages, possibly coupled with rising inflation due to the VAT increase, may fuel additional social discontent in the near future.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25-2025/
To preserve domestic supplies Russia is extending its ban on petrol exports and introducing a partial ban on diesel exports.
And considering that fossil fuel exports are pretty much Russia's only source of the foreign exchange and gold bullion that they need to buy weapons from China/Iran/North Korea that's going to further restrict the war effort.
To preserve domestic supplies Russia is extending its ban on petrol exports and introducing a partial ban on diesel exports.
And considering that fossil fuel exports are pretty much Russia's only source of the foreign exchange and gold bullion that they need to buy weapons from China/Iran/North Korea that's going to further restrict the war effort.
Yes, but Russia has currency reserves estimated around $700bn. $300bn of that is frozen and subject to debate at the moment, so $400bn to spend.
They also have fuel reserves, but I doubt that they will be too big because they are a producer.
IMHO, the tipping point is where they have to reduce production and can't top the war chest up and is key to a rapid peace.
Loss of exports is painful, but bearable ATM
The US needs to step up with sanctions rather than their insistence on tariffs
If they have fuel reserves - how come the shortages ?
Also haven’t Russia already blown through their war chest cash reserves in the last 3.5 years? If they have 400 billion like you say, why put up VAT?
Yeah, they started with a huge war chest but they've burning through it at a terrifying rate and losing this key export business will accelerate that.
If they have fuel reserves - how come the shortages ?
Processing plants (and refineries) were hit... so they might well have raw reserves but not enough finished usable fuel to spare.
If they have fuel reserves - how come the shortages ?
Russia has a surplus petrol production of around 20% (compared to 100% for diesel) in good times when everything works, so petrol is sometimes in short supply during routine maintenance periods, which are usually around now.
Russia is currently building the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline to offset losses of EU pipeline gas sales. It runs to China via Mongolia, so to keep everyone sweet Russia sends petrol to Mongolia which is exempt from the export ban ("inter-governmental exports to other countries" ^^)
Ukraine has hit refineries so the Russian public suffers. Unfortunately this means that the work force can't get petrol either, so...
Also haven’t Russia already blown through their war chest cash reserves in the last 3.5 years? If they have 400 billion like you say, why put up VAT?
Russia exports a stack of products including grain, oil, oil products (naptha, bitumen, etc.), agri and fertiliser products, and gas. The EU takes more Russian pipeline gas and more LNG than China.
Russia has also re-opened exports by container shipping in Crimea. So what else is it exporting?
Russia’s confidence in the permanence of its illicit gains is such that it has resumed containerised exports from Sevastopol. Trade had previously been limited to agricultural commodities.
According to our data, Chinese boxship Heng Yang 9 (IMO: 1059979) has made four calls since June, spoofing its Automatic Identification System signal to do so.
At least some of the content in the boxes appears to have been manufactured in the industrialised Donbas region, which probably means that rail links have been restored.But the law of unintended consequences has kicked in. We always suspected that making the $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude stick was going to be a tall order to enforce, and so it has proved.
There are few signs that the ‘dynamic price cap’ due to be rolled out next week has dramatically better prospects.
The emergence of both a shadow fleet of tankers and alternative P&I providers of untested quality have rendered sweeping circumvention of the ostensible prohibitions simple.
These vessels are even pioneering new routes. At least five of them have been tracked transiting the Arctic to deliver Russian oil to China over the summer. Basis willing buyer/willing seller, naturally.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154657/Don%E2%80%99t-let-Russia-normalise-maritime-trade-with-occupied-Ukraine
The % spent on the military and security services is around 40% of the budget, with a planned reduction from $160 to $150bn in the next budget. The military budget is decreasing, but the security and law enforcement budget will increase
"Continued or worsening gasoline shortages, possibly coupled with rising inflation due to the VAT increase, may fuel additional social discontent in the near future." ISW^^
Some more about the "shadow fleet", there are 200 tankers registered in Panama alone. The Heng Yang 9 containership ^^ is also registered in Panama
THE presidents of Ukraine and Panama got together on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, with the shadow fleet* inevitably the main topic up for discussion.
Jose Raul Mulino assured Volodymyr Zelensky that his country, the world’s largest open registry, had revoked registration of 200 tankers contravening sanctions on the export of Russian crude.
Heng Yang 9, incidentally, is flagged in Panama.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154943/The-last-thing-shipping-needs-is-a-shadow-fleet-20
And sanctions aren't particularly tight
EU sanctions target non-Russian ships and companies but largely ignore fake flags
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154945/EU-sanctions-target-non-Russian-ships-and-companies-but-largely-ignore-fake-flags
Russian oil refined in third-party countries finds its way back west as well, perpetuating Russian crude oil exports
Some $15bn will be taken from public services in Russia and the VAT increase will net another $52bn, so again the public pays. That's part of keeping the published state deficit around 1.5% GDP (figures from Meduza.io)
EU rules are 3% while France is fighting get below 5%, so that figure may not be realistic
A selection of people are coming around to the idea that Russia cannot win this war.
Ukrainian Tatiana Montyan, who is a pro-Russian blogger, claims that Russian demands put forward in negotiations with Ukraine are unachievable, and Russia lacks the strength to capture all the territories it desires. Various Om TV Youtube videos since June 2025.
She's recently repeated similar claims which were seconded by Igor Girkin and most recently by Dmitry Rogozin, a senator representing the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region, who said Russian forces are advancing only
“with enormous difficulty and at a colossal cost.” https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/60816
President Trump on President Zelenskyy, “He’s a brave man, and he’s putting up one hell of a fight.” 23 September 2025.
This is an important concept for the "west's" coalition of the unwilling; those politicians who will happily turn away in the hope that the war in Ukraine will just go away.
It won't, Russia cannot win. So get behind Ukraine, join the coalition of the willing and end this war
Just popped up this morning. I did wonder where the Ukraine troops covering losses were coming from. Numbers here are small....
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cvgjk8z47gko
A bit of a placeholder post yesterday to keep the Ukraine thread current and today there are some significant moves reported:
There's a video here (not that I've watched it 😀) with more detail on Russia's budget as briefly discussed ^^.
I've pasted the full written comment, it includes the point ^^ that the war economy is in part being passed to households, which propaganda cannot cover
Russia: Out of Cash, Full of Despair
Economist Yuriy Gorodnichenko highlights how the Kremlin’s economic choices prioritize war over citizens’ well-being: an unsustainable path that no propaganda can cover.Russia’s economy is far from stable. It is buckling under wartime spending, capital controls, and manipulated statistics. In this interview, we test the claim that skeptics are “deluding themselves” and present the data that Moscow cannot erase.
A 17% key rate paired with inflation above 8% points to a system in distress. The official unemployment rate of 2.2% looks impressive on paper, but becomes meaningless when surveys show millions of Russians seeking second jobs to make ends meet. The state is choosing guns over butter.
A higher VAT shifts the cost of war onto ordinary households while wages continue to erode. Deficits are rising, debt service is consuming more of the budget, and the National Welfare Fund is being drained to keep the illusion alive.Like gravity, economic laws cannot be denied. Propaganda does not stop the ground from coming up fast when you fall. Professor Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a Ukrainian-born economist and faculty member at the University of California, Berkeley, speaking with Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart provides this critical assessment of Russia’s economy.
He is one of the most cited macroeconomists of his generation, with expertise in inflation, fiscal crises, and emerging markets. His scholarship has been published in leading journals, and he has advised institutions from the IMF to national central banks. His insights on Russia’s economy combine rigorous data analysis with deep knowledge of post-Soviet systems, making his warnings especially significant. https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/61098
The US isn't imposing any limits on strikes by Ukraine on targets within Russia, unlike the US under President Biden.
There's the possibility of Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine. It's under consideration now by President Trump, which if it happens will be a spectacular pivot,
US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory. Kellogg responded in an interview on September 29 with Fox News to a question asking if US President Donald Trump has authorized Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian territory. Kellogg stated that Trump’s, US Vice President JD Vance’s, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statements all indicate that there are no sanctuaries in Russia and that this is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has requested US Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs). Kellogg stated that it is up to Trump to decide whether the US will provide Ukraine with Tomahawks. ISW has long argued that Russia should not be permitted to leverage sanctuaries that Western restrictions on Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory create. Russia has, in the past, been able to amass ground forces, materiel, and subsequently launch new offensives into Ukraine and conduct long-range strikes against Ukraine within the protection of these sanctuaries. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/
There's a comprehensive Tomahawk article here, which saves a tonne of writing,
‘Operational Requirement’ – Experts Detail Why Tomahawks Are Key to Striking Russia’s Deep Rear
In an interview with Kyiv Post, Institute for the Study of War analyst argues Ukraine needs a system to strike Russia’s “intermediate and deep rear” to damage logistics.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61109
Would a tomahawk be able to take out the Crimea bridge?
Have they been used in anger elsewhere? The bomb people must be itching to see how well they work.
Alexei Zhuravlev of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee has, IMHO, made a bad decision when he threatened to move Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Venezuela.
First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev claimed that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will be a new stage in the war, with the United States becoming a direct participant. Zhuravlev threatened that Russia will respond by moving its Oreshnik ballistic missiles closer to the United States, possibly to Venezuela.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/
The US already has a naval and air presence off the Venezuelan coast and has conducted strikes this month on Venezuelan boats that are claimed to belong to drug cartels running narcotics to the US.
Venezuela has had good relations with Russia for most of President Putin's reign and in return has gold and enormous oil and gas reserves (5x the US reserves of oil alone).
Venezuela has supported Russia at various points in its war in Ukraine: pro invasion, anti-sanctions, etc.
In return, Russia supported President Maduro's return to power in the heavily contested result of the 2024 election.
In January, it was reported that Venezuela was planning to disrupt key shipping on the Panama Canal using Peykaap-III-class missile boats bought from Iran and derived from a N.Korean design.
Specifically, there is real concern on the part of some U.S. strategists that Venezuela is planning to disrupt key shipping on the Panama Canal in much the same way that the Houthis have been disrupting international shipping in both the Red Sea or the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb or the way in which the Iranian Navy plans to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a direct conflict with the United States.
This further explains the incoming Trump administration’s seemingly random fixation on restoring direct U.S. control over the Panama Canal Zone, even at the risk of violating international agreements made with Panama. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pentagon-panicking-over-venezuelas-peykaap-iii-missile-boats-214234
It won't take President Trump much to see his "Cuba" moment as he pursues a Nobel prize. President Kennedy had four options:
ignore the rhetoric
go to the UN
blockade Cuba
invade Cuba
Russia has lost Moldova to Europe in the elections there. Russia also lost $$$$ in the cost of attempting to influence the outcome, anything from $200mn to $400mn depending on which reports you read.
It's another loss of regional influence and is ironic in that in trying to increase the Russkiy Mir by invading Ukraine, Russia has lost several neighbouring regions,
The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in the September 28 elections in Moldova, as Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians and Russian officials are preparing to appeal the results and call for protests in the coming days. PAS won 50.2 percent of the vote, securing 55 out of 101 seats in the Moldovan Parliament.
Kremlin-linked Moldovan and Russian officials are alleging election fraud and procedural violations to set conditions to appeal the results and call for protests. Shor claimed that the elections were “obviously rigged” and that Moldovan authorities intimidated ten to twenty percent of voters to prevent them from voting.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2025/
I think Tomahawk would be a mistake, both from a tactical and strategic point of view.
Tactically, the non-nuke warheads are not much bigger than the existing drones that are currently in use. Tomahawk might be more accurate and able to terrain follow, but they can be shot down in the same way and are very expensive, so cost/effectiveness might not be good.
Strategically, Tomahawk can take nukes and it is possible that Russia could see that as a reason to escalate as any Tomahawk activity could be "proof" of a decision by NATO to raise the stakes. I'd hate that to be the tipping point from proxy war to global. Ukraine would also be reliant on the US for them and, likely, the launch mechanism and that's not a healthy relationship right now.
Purely from that last point and the cost, I'd be looking at other options (but I am a) not at war and b) not a general)