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Somehow missed Turkiye as a NATO buyer of Russian oil. The editorial team has been put on a final warning ⚠️
It makes no difference to the original post, they won't be giving up the massive benefit to their economy as 3rd largest buyers
they are the only two NATO countries that I'm aware of that buy oil from Russia
Turkey is the biggest purchaser, I read.
EDIT - posts crossed 🙂
Its been said numerous times here before - but, its still shocking to see how NATO has so quickly gone from strong and united just a few months ago under Biden, to a disorganised and weak position now under Trump.
For all his rhetoric of being a tough man, Trump has done nothing but demonstrate himself as weak and cowardly. This is underlined by the TACO nickname he quickly picked up and how he does the typical cowardly thing of bullying those he knows won`t hit back .. namely his closest allies.
The UK and Europe relied too much on the USA, and that now has become a major risk. Its hard to see NATO being able to fill the gaps of USA and Turkey leaving.
Its hard to see NATO being able to fill the gaps of USA and Turkey leaving.
I'm interested in why you think that Turkiye might leave NATO.
It was widely discussed at the end of last year that Turkiye was looking at BRICS membership, but that's politically complex because India doesn't want an ally of Pak*stan as a full member, so partnership status was offered instead.
At the same time they expressed an interest in the hat will require some deft political footwork to separate the interests of NATO and SCO.
Turkiye has publicly criticised the Russian-led and is part of the Organisation of Turkic States, forging ahead with moves to merge the Turkic states in what was previously the Russian-influenced Caucasus region.
Interestingly, only today, it's reported that Turkiye's purchase of Russian S400 AD systems have never been deployed and Russia is offering to buy them back. Turkiye made the purchase to demonstrate independence from the US which refused to sell them Patriot, but it backfired https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60109
I see Turkiye as determined to be independent of the US, rather than NATO
There's a lot of to-ing and fro-ing in Congress over Ukraine, which must be giving President Trump a massive headache
He's also got trade talks going on with China hosted by Spain over ownership of TikTok of all things and full trade talks in November https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9zedgkm21o
This is probably one motivator for his demands for NATO countries to tariff China.
He's also got two Republicans, Senator Lindsey Graham and Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, pushing to attach the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 to future government funding. If it happens it will force a bust-up in Congress over Ukraine.
The bill has lain essentially dormant since January and says,
Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025
This bill imposes penalties on certain persons (individuals and entities) if the President determines that the Russian government or a person acting at Russia's direction is involved with (1) refusing to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine; (2) violating a negotiated peace agreement; (3) initiating another invasion of Ukraine; or (4) overthrowing, dismantling, or seeking to subvert the Ukrainian government.
If the President makes such a determination, the bill requires certain actions including
the President must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on specified persons such as the Russian president, certain Russian military commanders, and any foreign person that knowingly provides defense items to the Russian armed forces;
the President must increase the rate of duty on all goods and services imported from Russia into the United States to at least 500% relative to the value of such goods and services;
the President must increase the rate of duty on all goods and services imported into the United States from countries that knowingly engage in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products to at least 500% relative to the value of such goods and services;
the Department of the Treasury must impose property-blocking sanctions on any financial institution organized under Russian law and owned wholly or partly by Russia, and any financial institution that engages in transactions with those entities; and
the Department of Commerce must prohibit the export, reexport, or in-country transfer to or in Russia of any U.S.-produced energy or energy product.
It will penalise Trump allies in both Hungary and Slovakia and NATO allies, such as Turkiye. It may well catch other NATO and EU members out, but there's no point attempting to analyse that because the bill hasn't been debated and won't be in its final form yet.
Mike Johnson, the US Speaker in Congress, is against Congress forcing the issue by attaching it to government funding and will no doubt work very hard in that respect, as he did to cut aid to Ukraine under President Biden
Its hard to see NATO being able to fill the gaps of USA and Turkey leaving.
I suspect (obviously just guessing) Trump does not actually wants the US to leave NATO regardless of all the rhetoric and limp actions, it's leverage over Europe he'll not want to lose. It's a lot harder to bully someone if they are militarily independent.
Although the US may, in practice be a meaningless member in the event of a war, apart from selling stuff.
Yes. Trump often gloats about making so much money selling USA weapons, its easy to assume he merely wants to be the best positioned supplier/seller of weapons than any active involvement. Its a good reminder that he also gloated of selling weapons that were not fully functional compared to those the USA would have ... countries must be desperate to be still buying them I think.
Yes. Trump often gloats about making so much money selling USA weapons, its easy to assume he merely wants to be the best positioned supplier/seller of weapons than any active involvement. Its a good reminder that he also gloated of selling weapons that were not fully functional compared to those the USA would have ... countries must be desperate to be still buying them I think.
- I'm interested in why you think that Turkiye might leave NATO -
Where to start!
Turkey haven`t demonstrated being a fully committed member of NATO for many years now. They have been on opposite sides to quite a few NATO members .. be that with Greece and Cyprus, or more complex issues regarding Kurdish groups. It may well be a play, such as what USA may be doing, to get leverage. But that too doesnt make Turkey look as if they`d be fully committed if things got hot.
- I'm interested in why you think that Turkiye might leave NATO -
Where to start!
Turkey haven`t demonstrated being a fully committed member of NATO for many years now. They have been on opposite sides to quite a few NATO members .. be that with Greece and Cyprus, or more complex issues regarding Kurdish groups. It may well be a play, such as what USA may be doing, to get leverage. But that too doesnt make Turkey look as if they`d be fully committed if things got hot.
That's why I'm interested. TLDR, there have been definite disagreements with the US on middle-eastern issues, but I'd like alternative takes too. The TL version;
Turkiye has walked a diplomatic tightrope on so many international issues and came close to open conflict with Russia in 2015 when a Turkish F16 shot down a Russian Sukhoi attack aircraft that had trespassed inside Turkish airspace.
It's thought that the threat of NATO under article 5 and the fact that President Putin wants to split Turkiye from the "west" kept everything calm.
Essentially though, Turkiye is diametrically opposed to the US in respect to Gaza, the Syrian Kurdish population, Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen who was accused of plotting to overthrow President Erdogan in 2016 and died in exile in the US afterwards, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy80638zgndo
Turkiye isn't in the most stable part of the world and bubbling in the background to those incidents was their need for a good air defence system, which has been undermined by trust issues. The modern story of relations with the US begins there https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/
Turkiye then fell foul of President Trump's "Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act" in 2019 and was taken off the list for F35, hence my comment about the S400 decision backfiring^^. It's also cost them a lot of money for aircraft and AD systems that have never been deployed
In the last year F35 might be back on the table for Turkiye with new conditions imposed by Congress. The S400 will have to go first though and it would be good to give first refusal to Ukraine, as we commented at the time on this thread
Yep - thats the wordy version. My more basic version is that Turkey, like USA today, appear to be NATO members for other reasons than what the alliance stands for. If things kicked off with Russia or China it wouldnt be any surprise if Turkey declined to help.
Maybe NATO needs a reset. There are other members too who dont appear committed to it.
Maybe NATO needs a reset.
NATO came about because of the USSR's desire to impose communism right across Europe. It's a distant memory now, but the Cold War was a scary time and the USSR was a terrible place. After the USSR disintegrated, it seemed like huge standing armies would not be needed any more (The End of History, etc.). Now we can see that Russia and other authoritarian countries are still a major threat to democracy, so an alliance focusing on that is needed. It's not clear that Turkey wants to be part of the liberal democratic bloc or do their own thing. Same with Hungary and other autocratic countries. If they don't want to be part of it, best to let them go IMO.
Maybe NATOs focus on expansion meant they lost sight on its actual purpose. and instead of strengthening, it was really weakening itself.
I agree that NATO in its current form is past its use by date. Ideally a reset is needed, probably a completely new organisation. One where only those who are fully committed to mutual defence and a robust response to aggression. Members with shared values who will cooperate fully on intelligence sharing, defence technology and manufacture.
Primarily European, but excluding those under the sway of the main threat to European security (Hungary, Slovakia). But also non-European democracies with whom we share values and interests like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and maybe a few others. Obviously excluding the car crash that is the United States in its current form unless and until it undoes the huge damage to trust of recent years.
It's all pie in the sky I know. European politics is too fractious and changeable and the lurch to the right everywhere will torpedo such aspirations. I absolutely shudder to think of how we will roll over to anything Putin and Trump demands if (when?) Farage is PM.
If NATO hadn’t expanded into the Baltics they’d be Russian by now, or the next in line!
Maybe NATOs focus on expansion meant they lost sight on its actual purpose. and instead of strengthening, it was really weakening itself.
They didn't. Other countries asked to join because they were afraid of Russia, with good reason as it turns out. Poland and the Baltic states now seem to be the most reliable members - those are the newest members, the ones who most fear Russia. They have strengthened NATO, not weakened it.
It’s worth remembering that despite Russian claims that it was Ukrainian desire to join NATO that triggered the invasion, Ukraine had never actually asked to join, likewise with Finland and Sweden, it was entirely because of Russian expansionism that they decided to join.
Going off that slightly, the RAF have had one of their P8 Poseidon aircraft from Lossiemouth on patrol along the Poland, Belarus border very recently, just a wee bit outside of its comfort zone!
And there’s a Global Hawk cruising around at 58,000 ft keeping tabs on things all along the stretch from the Med up to the Baltic, in particular around Kaliningrad.
Maybe NATOs focus on expansion meant they lost sight on its actual purpose. and instead of strengthening, it was really weakening itself.
They didn't. Other countries asked to join because they were afraid of Russia, with good reason as it turns out. Poland and the Baltic states now seem to be the most reliable members - those are the newest members, the ones who most fear Russia. They have strengthened NATO, not weakened it.
Mostly because they understand life under Russian occupation.
If NATO is weaker then it's because western politicians are even more insulated from reality by the newer members.
Ideally a reset is needed, probably a completely new organisation. One where only those who are fully committed to mutual defence and a robust response to aggression.
I'm not sure how that can be achieved.
The transitory nature of western leaders mean that within a few years it's all changed. I expect Hungary to be under new management in April and it's been buying a lot of NATO-standard kit over the last few years from European suppliers, replacing Soviet kit. The major exception to the European rule is the
Should the UK be hoofed out if Farage decides not to commit to the defence of EU states?
What NATO needs is a proper review of who provides what (and what needs to be procured) so that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Italian contribution of a bridge should be ignored; it's Sicily 🤣
Ideally a reset is needed, probably a completely new organisation. One where only those who are fully committed to mutual defence and a robust response to aggression.
I'm not sure how that can be achieved.
The transitory nature of western leaders mean that within a few years it's all changed.
agreed, hence my final para:
It's all pie in the sky I know. European politics is too fractious and changeable and the lurch to the right everywhere will torpedo such aspirations.
👍
The lurch to the right isn't as great a concern IMHO.
I prefer that to politicians who have a firm opinion, surround themselves with accolytes and don't connect to the greater reality
General Gerasimov has made another appearance following Zapad 2025
"Our troops in the zone of the special military operation are advancing in practically all directions," the Defence Ministry quoted Gerasimov as saying.
https://www.reuters.com/world/top-russian-officer-reports-advances-all-ukrainian-fronts-2025-09-17/
Which doesn't really chime with everyone else's reality during Russia's Summer Offensive in which they lost the equivalent of 26 divisions (over 210,000 troops) for just 0.3% of Ukraine’s territory.
From Kherson to Pokrovsk, Kupiansk to Kursk, Russian forces bled for marginal ground while Ukrainian defenses adapted, counterattacked, and destroyed entire battalions. Putin’s summer blitz revealed a war machine plagued by logistical collapse, command ineptitude, and cratering morale.
Key highlights:
- Kherson: Drone strikes cripple Russian supply lines
- Pokrovsk: Ukraine cedes useless terrain, then counterattacks
- Kupiansk: HIMARS obliterates two Russian battalions in 30 minutes
- Kursk: 19,000 Russian troops eliminated in Ukraine’s surprise incursion
- Chemical warfare: Russia resorts to banned weapons as desperation grows
- Strategic tally: Russia loses the equivalent of 26 divisions for just 0.3% of Ukraine’s territory
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/60021
Russia's May-June success in Sumy Oblast has been overturned https://kyivindependent.com/russian-offensive-in-sumy-oblast-completely-thwarted-zelensky-says/
The Russian advancing salient at Moskovka (north of Kupyansk) is currently in danger with Ukrainian attacks on three sides and they still haven't taken Pokrovsk, despite an offensive there since July 2024
Other Russian offensives are stronger and have plenty of "ifs", e.g. towards Poltavka
It seems that Russia's Summer campaign is over and more offensives are planned for Autumn/Winter 2025 https://kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-2-more-heavy-offensive-campaigns-zelensky-says/
i thought olde chuck was a busted flush?
i thought olde chuck was a busted flush?
I don't know much about him, but I think that the Kyiv Post is reasonable. Please let me know if he's sometimes off-track (aren't we all?) and I'll be more wary, thanks
I haven't watched the video (of course 😔) I was more interested in the number summary.
The subsequent four paras are my summaries from different sources
yeah hes not a reliable source. He was one of these people who blew up on twitter in the early days of the war when the "mainstream media" (for want of a better expression) went looking for alternative commentary that actually matched what seemed to be happening. Much like the tyres guy, it turned out he was mostly making up rubbish that people wanted to hear.
I'd not heard from him for a while, but he had an habit of making lots of claims that soon after were proved to be bllx in the first year or so of the war. Mind you, plenty out there still doing just that.
yup, and worse after being called out on it he'd block people and double down, so i took him off the list of people to pay attention to
On the subject of Ukrainian air defence capability.
Recently there was discussion here, about the feasibility of repurposing ship protection gun systems for ground mounted use against UAVs in Ukraine. Specifically the Phalanx 20mm system. Sweden has done exactly that albeit with a different system. The Bofors 40 Mk4. It's a remotely fired, turret mounted 40mm autocannon used by several navies and will be fitted to the UK type 31 frigates.
Bofors have developed a land based version mounted to trucks - the Tridon Mk2. In Feb this year, Sweden announced a $100 million package of air defence support to Ukraine which would include the provision of Tridon systems.This is a very capable system, a much more modern version of the Bofors L70 40mm anti aircraft gun which has been around since the 1940s (also provided to Ukraine). It can switch automatically between ammunition types which include proximity-fuzed airburst HE and discarding sabot anti armor rounds.
I don't know how many systems Ukraine has or will receive, but they will be a very welcome addition to their layered air defence capability. Short video on it here.
Re Chuck Pfarrer: Forewarned and all that, so thanks all
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting on September 9 that Russian forces have suffered 299,210 casualties killed and wounded in action since January 2025 alone.[5] Russian forces have been advancing at a creeping foot pace throughout 2025, and Russia’s casualty rates have been disproportionately high compared to the amount of territory seized. Putin has also mismanaged Russia’s economy throughout the war, resulting in increased and unsustainable wartime spending, growing inflation, and significant labor shortages.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18-2025/
Those numbers support Chuck Pfarrer's assessment for Summer 2025 numbers of 210,000^^
The only wrinkle is that he talks about "equivalent to 26 divisions", which doesn't mean much because Ukraine uses a Corps/Brigade structure, having phased divisions out
The Kursk number for 2025 looks about right, but just for "Summer"? Maybe, because numbers vary massively according to source
I haven't bothered to crunch the 0.3%, but it wouldn't surprise me
I'll try to keep on top of my sources, publishing links helps us all, so keep challenging, but not too much, this isn't a career choice 🙂
General Gerasimov has had his service term extended beyond the mandatory 70th birthday, when he was also awarded the Order Of Courage. Some Russian veterans aren't as supportive of the extension of service
A source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) told Russian outlet RBK on September 18 that the Kremlin extended Gerasimov’s service term, with another source specifying that the Kremlin extended his term for five more years. Gerasimov turned 70 years old on September 8, reaching the standard mandatory retirement age. Putin notably signed a decree in March 2021 that removed the mandatory retirement age for senior presidential appointees, allowing them to serve past the age of 70. Putin awarded Gerasimov with the Order of Courage on September 8, despite the fact that Russian veterans and ultranationalists frequently criticize Gerasimov for his command incompetence.
Gerasimov inspected the Central Grouping of Forces on September 17 and claimed that the most intense fighting is occurring in the Pokrovsk direction and that Ukrainian forces have failed to stop Russian advances.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18-2025/
Presumably that assessment doesn't include the lack of Russian advances on Pokrovsk since July 2024 that are still being stopped by Ukraine's forces.
The UK Defence Intelligence update for 17th September summarises Pokrovsk,
The logistics hub of Pokrovsk remains the focal point for Russian offensive operations. Pokrovsk is an important defensive lynchpin, constraining Russian advances in the wider Donetsk oblast and towards the Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both of which are also Russian objectives.
Major elements of Russia’s Naval Infantry have been transferred from Russia’s Kursk region and Ukraine’s Sum region to the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia axis, where they have started to conduct offensive activity in small groups.
The transfer of Russia’s Naval Infantry from Kursk and Sumy regions is interesting, in that Ukraine has in the last few hours attacked a logistics hub for Russian Marines in Kursk. Is something afoot?
Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck the logistics hub of Russia’s 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region early on Thursday, Sept. 18. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60442
Further to @willard posting on the previous page^^
The EU is exploring a “reparation loan” for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets, aiming to bypass Hungary’s veto and address shrinking US support for Kyiv’s wartime finances.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60417
It seems that Belgium^^ is interested in the scheme, despite last week's reporting. It's basically an IOU earning 0% interest with the capital paid back to Russia when they've paid reparations to Ukraine. It's a reasonable bet that Russia will run out of funds, thus concluding the war, before the reparation loan monies run out. Belgium alone holds $200bn in frozen Russian assets.
There are risks, but if other countries weigh in more heavily to support Russia then I think that they'll want payment. It's noticeable that Russia isn't getting charity currently with demands for discounted energy exports, secrets traded with its allies making NKorea's missiles more accurate, etc.
I don't know how many systems Ukraine has or will receive, but they will be a very welcome addition to their layered air defence capability.
Indeed. The more options the better because systems now are often designed to be adaptable, but this sometimes causes problems with availability.
As an example, Ukraine has two European SAMP/T land AD batteries in Ukraine with a third scheduled for delivery next month.
European militaries, including the Royal Navy, use SAMP/T missiles (called Sea Viper), so while there are stocks there's a lot of competition for production and it takes an age for that to ramp up with the more elaborate systems
European militaries, including the Royal Navy, use SAMP/T missiles (called Sea Viper), so while there are stocks there's a lot of competition for production and it takes an age for that to ramp up with the more elaborate systems
Which is why these radar guided automated gun systems are really useful, as they use relatively* plentiful and cheap 20mm, 35mm and 40mm ammunition. Obviously range is shorter than SAMs, which is why each is important as part of a layered air defence system.
*compared to guided missiles costing tens or hundreds of thousands a pop.
And, if they are container or flat-bed based all-in one systems (Bofors did a twin 30mm rotary systems several years back that was designed to sit in a standard ISO container IIRC), then you can pick them up and move them off to where they are most needed relatively easily.
Regulars on this thread will have seen plenty of coverage of top Kremlin TV propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov. Usually spitting bile, apoplectic with rage and calling for genocide in Ukraine and for every Western capital to be nuked on a weekly basis. He is a proper pantomime villain. Try not to shed any tears for him, but he is in deep doo doo. He filmed a piece in the headquarters of "Rubicon" the centralised Russian agency which coordinates UAV R&D, manufacture, training, deployment and operational C&C.
It has actually been very effective at delivering drone capability against Ukraine. 
Open source intelligence analysts were able to geolocate the facility to an exhibition hall near Moscow, in large part due to visual clues from Solovyov's videos. Details here.
Unfortunately it hasn't yet been in receipt of any Flamingo cruise missiles. Solovyov is a nasty piece of work. Elsewhere there is a suggestion that he is being investigated for corrupt real estate deals and is about to have properties seized. As almost everyone in the Russia elite has their hands in the till to some degree, the fact he is being investigated shows he has upset someone. I wouldn't stand near any upper floor windows if I were him.
More on drones, this time Ukrainian maritime sub-surface variants. The Toloka series of sub-surface drones was initially announced a couple of years ago, but more details have come to light at a recent defence equipment expo in Lviv. More info here. 3 variants, with increasing size, range and payload up to the TLK-1000 with a claimed range of 2000km and a payload of 5000kg.
I'm a little sceptical of these figures, but Ukraine does have a lot of experience and success with maritime surface drones, particularly against Russia's Black Sea fleet. So an indigenous sub-surface variant with a large payload is feasible. If these claims are anywhere near accurate, this will be a formidable weapon. The Kerch bridge seems an obvious target and a 5 tonne warhead is going to do a lot of damage to a bridge support. It also threatens Black sea fleet ships which have been forced to move from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk.
Russia has already massively increased air defences for the bridge, this will give them another threat to worry about. Even if the capability claims are exaggerated, Russia will have to take them seriously and act accordingly. There has already been an attack on the bridge with 2 surface drones in 2023, each with an 850kg warhead. This damaged the span above and bridge support leading to a temporary closure. Another attack in June this year this year used a claimed 1.1 tonnes of high explosive detonated underwater against a bridge support. Ukraine claimed the explosives were placed over a 6 month period by divers, Russia claimed it was an undersea drone. An earlier, smaller Toloka variant perhaps? The effect of high explosives against structures underwater is amplified because of the "tamping" effect of the water. 5 tonnes, detonated sub-surface in intimate contact with a bridge support has a very high chance of collapsing it.
After previous attacks Russia deployed countermeasures to defeat surface drones, such as booms and barges moored end to end. a sub-surface drone can obviously pass beneath these. It could probably be stopped fairly easily with anti-submarine netting but the bridge is 16 odd Km long, that's a lot of netting to install and maintain.
Like I say, the claims may be exaggerated but they will still have the effect of causing Russia a massive headache and lead to redeployment of resources that then can't be used elsewhere.
More airspace incursions from the Russians. This one seems a particular piss take, as 3 Mig 31s did a low pass over a Polish drilling platform in the Baltic sea. Sweden escorted them away with Gripens.
At this point it almost feels like they're goading somebody into shooting at them so they can say "look what NATO are doing to our innocent aircraft!"
At this point it almost feels like they're goading somebody into shooting at them so they can say "look what NATO are doing to our innocent aircraft!"
This is William Spaniel's take too, maybe a shootdown of a Russian aircraft will enable Putin to recruit more soliders.
More airspace incursions from the Russians. This one seems a particular piss take, as 3 Mig 31s did a low pass over a Polish drilling platform in the Baltic sea. Sweden escorted them away with Gripens.
At this point it almost feels like they're goading somebody into shooting at them so they can say "look what NATO are doing to our innocent aircraft!"
There are two incidents mixed up there. The three MiG 31 incident was in Estonian airspace and involved cutting a corner that Russian pilots frequently cut.
The island that was overflown is in Estonian airspace, but controlled by Russian ATC in the St. Petersburg Flight Information Region.
The difference from the norm is that it took aircraft capable of almost 2000mph an alleged 12 minutes to cut a 40 mile corner. The recordings haven't been released so the public don't really know.
The Polish drilling rig isn't in Polish airspace, but in international waters in Poland's E
Two Russian aircraft breached the safety zone for air traffic.
Two (more) provocations probing for NATO weakness in command, control and response, but nothing IMHO to get in a shootout over
Two (more) provocations probing for NATO weakness in command, control and response, but nothing IMHO to get in a shootout over
Yeah it seemed like BAU trolling to me, only the timing elvating the interest of it
What’s the message? That Europe can’t concentrate it’s defences anywhere?
Regulars on this thread will have seen plenty of coverage of top Kremlin TV propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov. Usually spitting bile, apoplectic with rage and calling for genocide in Ukraine and for every Western capital to be nuked on a weekly basis. He is a proper pantomime villain. Try not to shed any tears for him, but he is in deep doo doo. He filmed a piece in the headquarters of "Rubicon" the centralised Russian agency which coordinates UAV R&D, manufacture, training, deployment and operational C&C.
It has actually been very effective at delivering drone capability against Ukraine.
Open source intelligence analysts were able to geolocate the facility to an exhibition hall near Moscow, in large part due to visual clues from Solovyov's videos. Details here.
Unfortunately it hasn't yet been in receipt of any Flamingo cruise missiles. Solovyov is a nasty piece of work. Elsewhere there is a suggestion that he is being investigated for corrupt real estate deals and is about to have properties seized. As almost everyone in the Russia elite has their hands in the till to some degree, the fact he is being investigated shows he has upset someone. I wouldn't stand near any upper floor windows if I were him.
I saw this elsewhere. There seems to have been time for Ukraine to take kinetic action,
an October 2024 clip from Russia’s Defense Ministry,
Solovyov’s February 2025 program, and
Rubicon’s own anniversary film in August 2025.
maybe they're going for more subtle objectives
If it's in an exhibition hall near Moscow, that would suggest a lot of collateral civilian damage and possibly deaths if the Ukrainians did blow it up, which could be credibility damaging.
Or, to put it another way, the Putin using human shields.
More on drones, this time Ukrainian maritime sub-surface variants. The Toloka series of sub-surface drones was initially announced a couple of years ago, but more details have come to light at a recent defence equipment expo in Lviv. More info here. 3 variants, with increasing size, range and payload up to the TLK-1000 with a claimed range of 2000km and a payload of 5000kg.
I'm a little sceptical of these figures, but Ukraine does have a lot of experience and success with maritime surface drones, particularly against Russia's Black Sea fleet. So an indigenous sub-surface variant with a large payload is feasible. If these claims are anywhere near accurate, this will be a formidable weapon. The Kerch bridge seems an obvious target and a 5 tonne warhead is going to do a lot of damage to a bridge support. It also threatens Black sea fleet ships which have been forced to move from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk.
Russia has already massively increased air defences for the bridge, this will give them another threat to worry about. Even if the capability claims are exaggerated, Russia will have to take them seriously and act accordingly. There has already been an attack on the bridge with 2 surface drones in 2023, each with an 850kg warhead. This damaged the span above and bridge support leading to a temporary closure. Another attack in June this year this year used a claimed 1.1 tonnes of high explosive detonated underwater against a bridge support. Ukraine claimed the explosives were placed over a 6 month period by divers, Russia claimed it was an undersea drone. An earlier, smaller Toloka variant perhaps? The effect of high explosives against structures underwater is amplified because of the "tamping" effect of the water. 5 tonnes, detonated sub-surface in intimate contact with a bridge support has a very high chance of collapsing it.
After previous attacks Russia deployed countermeasures to defeat surface drones, such as booms and barges moored end to end. a sub-surface drone can obviously pass beneath these. It could probably be stopped fairly easily with anti-submarine netting but the bridge is 16 odd Km long, that's a lot of netting to install and maintain.
Like I say, the claims may be exaggerated but they will still have the effect of causing Russia a massive headache and lead to redeployment of resources that then can't be used elsewhere.
That's an interesting one as well. Bulgaria to Georgia, fag-packet longest distance in the Black Sea, about 1000km, but Toloka TLK-1000 expensively over-engineered at double the range. I think that's more of an export item, but it could be used in specific operations locally.
The smaller variants will probably be more useful, overall