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How does he ever get to sleep at night
He curls up on top of his gigantic testicles and drifts off.
The European Commission has granted €64mn to Moldova, €20mn of which buys gas as humanitarian aid for Transnistria.
PM Dorin Recean said, “The European Union is saving Moldova again. While Russia leaves people in the cold and dark, Europe provides financial and direct support to end this energy blackmail once and for all."
(Reported in various media)
A transactional business deal has been declared by the US
President Donald Trump said on Monday he wants Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earth (RE) minerals as a form of payment for financially supporting the country's war efforts against Russia. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-says-he-wants-ukraine-supply-us-with-rare-earths-2025-02-03/
This fits with US trade wars with China and the EU because 35% of the world's RE supply is controlled by China, which is naturally using that in negotiations with the US
In 2024, the United States was reliant on China, Malaysia, Japan and Estonia (EU) for 80 percent of its rare earths needs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Several Western Balkan countries also have RE deposits and are in a special accession process to join the EU, but aren't yet members. China has also been active in the region, e.g. building an EU-funded bridge in Croatia, which is now an EU member and still has bauxite deposits despite mining until the 1990s.
The majority of RE in Ukraine is in the Russian-controlled Donbas (no surprise there) and mining in the next few years will be impossible unless peace falls quickly. The 100 days declaration and RE proposal puts the US in a negotiating bind with Russia, which is causing some consternation amongst observers, e.g. the pessimistic Phillips P. O'Brien https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-118-the-trump-administrations
I think that we'll have to see what happens, but the invasion(s) of Ukraine should have dealt with more firmly in 2014 and 2022 by the collective "west"
Steve Rosenberg's Reading Russia on Youtube:
5th Feb- Russian papers return to cost of living, "In 2025 inflation promises to be a serious challenge for the country's economy and ordinary Russians. Everything around us keeps jumping in price"
Despite posturing to the contrary, Russia needs a deal too. The question is who needs the deal most
Despite posturing to the contrary, Russia needs a deal too. The question is who needs the deal most
Putin doesn't need a deal, ordinary Russians do. Putin doesn't care about them, he cannot afford to back down on this, for him personally, this is existential.
Starlink being turned off on the front line?
https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3lhgafe7db62n
Putin doesn’t need a deal, ordinary Russians do. Putin doesn’t care about them, he cannot afford to back down on this, for him personally, this is existential.
Yes, I broadly agree, but like everything it isn't that simple. President Putin does have domestic pressures and red lines.
ISW reported yesterday (4th) that President Putin is still holding off from a state-mandated call-up of reserves, despite voluntary recruitment at best equalling losses and at worst less than current losses. Voluntary recruitment isn't meeting targets either, but it's a red line that he's observed since 2022.
Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin's decision to not conduct an involuntary reserve call up at this time despite indications that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace its high casualties.
AND
These Russian Duma deputies are likely claiming that Russian recruitment rates are sufficient in order to assuage fears among the Russian public of a widely unpopular potential new partial involuntary reserve call up. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2025
In 2023, following Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow,
Some have speculated that Prigozhin agreed to end his rebellion after winning concessions from Mr Putin, which could include changes at the top of the defence ministry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66013532
Despite Prigozhin's demise, Sergei Shoigu was moved from his post as Minister of Defence and is now secretary of the Security Council.
None of this makes anyone's opinion more or less valid, but they are points for consideration
Starlink being turned off on the front line?
There are possibilities; this was announced in Feb 2024
Ukraine's Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov revealed that Ukraine is "working with SpaceX" to find a solution to disable Russia's use of Starlink satellite terminals in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
"We found an algorithm, proposed it to SpaceX, and now we are in communication with them on how to prevent such cases," Fedorov said during the interview. https://kyivindependent.com/suspilne-ukraine-working-with-spacex-to-disable-russias-use-of-starlink-on-front-lines-minister-says/
Another possibility is that in December 2024 Ukraine signed an agreement with Starlink to take their new 4G Direct-to-Cell service. It's technically difficult linking to 4G data services via a satellite constellation so I don't know whether the full service has rolled out, but it's possible that "normal" Starlink data has been switched off.
Starshield is the military version of Starlink and Ukraine may have subscribed to that service. Elon Musk has long objected to military use of Starlink
Side notes: Starlink has geo-fenced signals to prevent use by Russia, but that also denies nearby Ukrainian use.
The Russian state officially doesn't approve of its military using Starlink, but they don't have the capability to widely interrupt signals. They have launched cyber-attacks on the software running the system on hand-held devices and have attempted localised jamming to disadvantage Ukraine
Damn. Just clicked that link. I'm trying to avoid clicking twitter links so as to deactivate my account.... must look more carefully.
Ukraine on the offensive inside Russia again. Battalion sized mechanised assaults in Kursk oblast. ISW saying 5km advance SE of Sudzha.
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lhkgaackss2a
Azerbaijan seems to be moving further away from Russia over the shooting down of the AZAL airliner on Christmas day and has been preparing an international court case following the release of their preliminary report into the disaster a couple of days ago.
Azerbaijan is an independent state that wants to open the controversial Zangezur corridor which transits Armenia. The controversy ranges from connotations of the term "corridor" to Azerbaijan taking Armenian territory for the project, which are two states in regular armed conflict
Russia has been backing the Zangezur project since last year because the project would give Russia land access to the middle-east and, as security guarantor between the two sides, give it some control over both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia has moved away from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) because of Russian military inaction over the Sept 2022 conflict with Azerbaijan (possibly because Russia was defending against Ukraine's Kharkiv counter-offensive). Armenia joined the ICC a year ago, against Russian interests https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/international-criminal-court-welcomes-armenia-new-state-party
It now looks like Azerbaijan (not CSTO) will be moving further away from Russia as well.
Azerbaijan is an independent energy-rich state that has been supplying Ukraine with humanitarian aid throughout the invasion, while allowing western overflights and getting diplomatically closer to Israel.
Azerbaijan and Iran are neighbours and don't get on. There have been allegations of serious provocation between the two, including sabotage, assassination plots and Iran supplying Armenia with weapons. This increasing shift in the region away from Russia (see also Syria) will worry both Iran and Russia and can be laid partly at the door of invading Ukraine
Apologies. This was meant as an addition to my previous post about the AZAL airliner tragedy, but after 30+ minutes I still can't see the post to edit it
The situation is ripe for U.S. engagement. Prime Minister Pashinyan is Armenia’s most pro-Western leader in decades, while Azerbaijan is already partnered with the United States on issues such as military overflights. As former assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Karen Donfried told Congress in November, U.S.-provided nonlethal border security assistance to Baku has helped counter transnational threats from Iran and disrupt smuggling routes to Russia and Europe.
If anyone needs a more optimistic take on what ordinary Russians think, this channel is worth a look. Vox pop style street interviews with ordinary Russians, asking them questions about the war with Ukraine, relations with other countries, state control of the media, LBGT rights and loads of other stuff. This is one example, there are literally hundreds more. Most are just a few minutes long. It's fascinating stuff and quite an insight. It's surprising to me how many have the courage to speak so freely and be openly critical of (for example) the war when they could be jailed for doing so. The interviewer obviously has his bias and some of the questions are a little leading, but still - to hear so many Muscovites being openly critical of Putin, the state apparatus, controls on freedom of speech and the war is great. It restores some faith in human nature and gives me a smidge of optimism about the future.
It's surprising to me how many have the courage to speak so freely and be openly critical of...
Steve Rosenberg's Reading Russia on Youtube. From newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta:
7 Feb 2025
One Russian paper today calls elections in Russia “…a vote to reappoint…to elect those currently in power” & reports that when the Central Election Commission here held a competition to promote elections the first prize was a book of Russian Fairy Tales.
It’s sounding like the deal is all but done. Russia to keep at least some of Ukraine. No direct USA involvement in stopping Russia advancing again. USA aid to Ukraine (either rebuilding or rearming) to be traded for natural materials (where those aren’t behind the new Russian border of course).
Trump seemingly on his way of throwing Ukraine under the bus as lots predicted. We know where this leaves Ukraine .. but where does it leave USA?
Whilst coming to the aid of European allies twice prior to 1945, it has a more recent history of deserting it's allies since then.
Putin couldn't do a much better job of destroying western alliances than Trump is doing at the moment - concerning stuff!
Trump is a dick, cozying up to Putin, dictating terms before talks have even started and then calling Zelensky as an afterthought. Whilst getting their 2014 borders back was realistically unlikely, effectively ruling out NATO membership at this stage is madness. It's exactly what Putin wanted all along. Without an effective security guarantee, Russia will rearm, reorg and it will all kick off again a few years down the line.
Ukraine has agency in this, they don't have to accept terms that create a permanent existential threat.
Europe needs to step up. Up defence spending, provide Ukraine the support the US will undoubtedly withdraw and provide them with a strong security guarantee. The US is no longer a reliable ally.
This seems to be an about face on US rhetoric through January, which was positive for Ukraine and for Europe
It’s sounding like the deal is all but done.
A deal between who? Has Ukraine signed off on it?
This 100%.
The negotiation technique has been interesting as well. Telling the other party that you only have 100 days to make an agreement is an imbalance, but the next moves are...unusual
...the author of "The Art of the Deal" may have already complicated his task by sacrificing leverage.
"Why is the Trump administration giving Putin gifts - Ukrainian land and no NATO membership for Ukraine - before negotiations even begin?" McFaul asked on social media site X."I've negotiated with the Russians. You never give up anything to them for free." https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-backs-ukraine-early-concessions-russia-spark-concerns-2025-02-13/
Europe needs to step up. Up defence spending, provide Ukraine the support the US will undoubtedly withdraw and provide them with a strong security guarantee. The US is no longer a reliable ally.
For trump that’s still a win! He thinks the US is subsidising global stability and the beneficiaries are not contributing enough. If he negotiates peace he’ll claim he was a hero, if he fails to negotiate peace but the US spends proportionately less he’ll be a republican hero, if he antagonises the situation he can claim to be being strong in the face of unreasonable aggression. He can’t really lose here.
It’s sounding like the deal is all but done.
A deal between who? Has Ukraine signed off on it?
Ukraine may not have much of a choice unless the European arms industry dramatically increases capacity with accompanying political will.
I suspect Europe 'might' be next under the bus, with the only beneficiary being European arms manufacturers if we manage to avoid further invasions, and not just of Ukraine. It's a long way to the US mid terms for a (arguably unrelated) political backlash to hamper/cripple the current guy, if it even happens.
media does seem to be pushing that narrative.
if that's the outcome, I expect there will be another conflict in the region in once Russia has managed to stablise and rearm. unless there is a change of leadership.
If anyone needs a more optimistic take on what ordinary Russians think, this channel is worth a look. Vox pop style street interviews with ordinary Russians, asking them questions about the war with Ukraine, relations with other countries, state control of the media, LBGT rights and loads of other stuff. This is one example, there are literally hundreds more. Most are just a few minutes long. It's fascinating stuff and quite an insight. It's surprising to me how many have the courage to speak so freely and be openly critical of (for example) the war when they could be jailed for doing so. The interviewer obviously has his bias and some of the questions are a little leading, but still - to hear so many Muscovites being openly critical of Putin, the state apparatus, controls on freedom of speech and the war is great. It restores some faith in human nature and gives me a smidge of optimism about the future.
My wife has a Dutch colleague who is married to Russian - her family still live there & she wants to go & see them. But she can't because bank cards don't apparently work anymore & she'd need to carry cash - then with various travel restrictions there is a possibility that she might not be able to leave.
She also gets harassed in the street when people realise that she is Russian.
Not a fun time for the people.
If anyone needs a more optimistic take on what ordinary Russians think, this channel is worth a look. Vox pop style street interviews with ordinary Russians, asking them questions about the war with Ukraine, relations with other countries, state control of the media, LBGT rights and loads of other stuff. This is one example, there are literally hundreds more. Most are just a few minutes long. It's fascinating stuff and quite an insight. It's surprising to me how many have the courage to speak so freely and be openly critical of (for example) the war when they could be jailed for doing so. The interviewer obviously has his bias and some of the questions are a little leading, but still - to hear so many Muscovites being openly critical of Putin, the state apparatus, controls on freedom of speech and the war is great. It restores some faith in human nature and gives me a smidge of optimism about the future.
My wife has a Dutch colleague who is married to Russian - her family still live there & she wants to go & see them. But she can't because bank cards don't apparently work anymore & she'd need to carry cash - then with various travel restrictions there is a possibility that she might not be able to leave.
She also gets harassed in the street when people realise that she is Russian.
Not a fun time for the people.
unless there is a change of leadership.
im not sure the others in the wings are any less revanchist 🙁
Time to go buying shares in uranium miners. Baltics and Poles etc have been put on notice that they are on their own. I don't see western Europe picking up the slack.
unless there is a change of leadership.
im not sure the others in the wings are any less revanchist 🙁
Time to go buying shares in uranium miners. Baltics and Poles etc have been put on notice that they are on their own. I don't see western Europe picking up the slack.
unless there is a change of leadership.
im not sure the others in the wings are any less revanchist 🙁
Time to go buying shares in uranium miners. Baltics and Poles etc have been put on notice that they are on their own. I don't see western Europe picking up the slack.
I suspect I'll get flamed for this, but after 3 years and with no other prosect of a conclusion, at least SOMETHING has been initiated. Talks would have to be held at some point in the process of concluding the war, and no doubt there's many inventive ways this particular American administration can **** it up to the detriment of the Ukranians, but maybe if the right counter parties can be drawn in to the talks some good can come from it. The alternative appears to be stalemate for more years, more death, more destruction of Ukraine, I'm trying to see this as a glass 5% full situation.
But not talks between Ukraine and Russia, the two countries at war.
They'll be one of the parties that need to be round the table, critical to it, but for understandable reasons couldn't themselves start the process. I'm not denying that Trump went about it the wrong way, but for now some engagement has more chance of progress than none. A very slim chance of course.
But not talks between Ukraine and Russia, the two countries at war.
This comes quite late on in peace talks. It appears to go something like shuttle diplomacy, warring sides' representatives in the same town, then in the same hotel, then in the same room. Or it may not get to the last bit. It also depends on the diplomatic level at which these things take place of course.
I suspect I'll get flamed for this, but after 3 years and with no other prosect of a conclusion, at least SOMETHING has been initiated. Talks would have to be held at some point in the process of concluding the war, and no doubt there's many inventive ways this particular American administration can **** it up to the detriment of the Ukranians, but maybe if the right counter parties can be drawn in to the talks some good can come from it. The alternative appears to be stalemate for more years, more death, more destruction of Ukraine, I'm trying to see this as a glass 5% full situation.
And if YOU were Ukrainian, would you still think the same?
A better analogy is the one I heard this morning, if this was 1940 and Roosevelt was brokering a deal so the Germans kept Poland & France, what would you think?
And if YOU were Ukrainian, would you still think the same?
Depends what the "settlement" looks like. It is unlikely that any peace deal is great, but then neither are several more years of war.
That is kind of assuming that Trump is brokering a "bad" deal just to stop spending on arms. I dare say if you were Polish by the late 70's, you might be looking at Europe and wondering how your allies had won the war but you seemed to have come out of it worse than Western Europe. That's not to say that any settlement is a good idea, but talking about what it takes to stop the war has to be a good idea. Ultimately Trump has the ability to turn up or down the heat on Russia, and obviously a significant influence on Ukraine's options. I despise the man but I can see his point about this being on Europe's doorstep and Europe not doing enough: EU countries continued to buy huge amounts of Russian gas until very recently!A better analogy is the one I heard this morning, if this was 1940 and Roosevelt was brokering a deal so the Germans kept Poland & France, what would you think?
The world of international relations is never simple. Trump does not have the intellect and diplomacy you would normally want to solve it - but Putin isn't exactly a prime example of considered thought.
Just read in the Economist's interview with Zelensky that Russia has 220 divisions, Ukraine has 110 and Europe has 80.
Without Ukraine the rest of Europe is easy for Putin.
Trump does not have the intellect and diplomacy you would normally want to solve it - but Putin isn't exactly a prime example of considered thought.
I agree with the first assessment, but not the second. Putin is a ruthless, murderous dictator sure. But I think he's actually highly intelligent, cunning and shrewd. If it was just the two of them in a room together, Putin would eat Trump for breakfast. Trump has already shown open admiration for Putin in the past (and contempt for Zelenskyy). Putin will blow feathers up his arse and generally flatter his ego and Trump will fold like a pack of cards. I just hope, there are wiser heads in the room on the US side
if this was 1940 and Roosevelt was brokering a deal so the Germans kept Poland & France, what would you think?
Without Ukraine the rest of Europe is easy for Putin.
Nope. Whatever the paper figures, Russia has had to resort to released convicts, private military companies, North Korean conscripts etc. just to keep momentum. Most of these are being decimated - a 1000 or more a day atm, in the delightfully named "meat assaults" on fixed Ukrainian defences. Most of Russia's best units were hammered in the early days of the war and are disbanded, severely under strength or reinforced with under trained replacements. Some units are using mules as transport FFS!
They are struggling to take a few kilometres of a country which borders them, with short lines of communication. This and dozens of other technical and tactical reasons mean in no way will Europe "be easy for Putin". Europe does however need to invest massively and prepare, just in case. "Walk softly, and carry a big stick".
"If" there is a war between NATO and Russia, would it not be more likely to be a limited but very high intensity land grab of one of the Baltics. Then sit back in an increasingly entrenched position and threaten nuclear escalation.
That is kind of assuming that Trump is brokering a "bad" deal just to stop spending on arms.
This isn't the issue that it's seen as by some in the US. The numbers are large, but in comparison to various others are comparatively small, e.g. US Dept of Defense has requested $849.8 billion budget for FY 2025. Assuming $61bn spend on Ukraine in 2025 that's around around 7% (The US spent $61bn on Ukraine in FY2024, $60bn in 2023, $55bn in 2022)
NASA cost $25.4bn in FY 2024 v Ukraine $61bn https://www.nasa.gov/fy-2025-budget-request/ . Most of the Ukraine money has been spent in the US employing tax payers and paying for new kit to restock US shelves while older kit is sent "off the shelf" before it would have to be disposed of at no gain.
"We must continue to adapt, advance and innovate at speed and at scale across all domains, prioritizing China as the pacing challenge and Russia as an acute threat," Grady said. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3703751/dods-2025-budget-request-provides-45-raise-for-service-members/
If Ukraine is enabled then that is a (very) cheap partial win for the US.
Europe not doing enough: EU countries continued to buy huge amounts of Russian gas until very recently!
The combined "west" hasn't done enough, either for NATO or Ukraine, but major economies within the EU have been especially slow to adapt to the new reality.
The top four "other" donors to Ukraine (the EU, Germany, UK and Japan) equal the US in bilateral aid between Jan '22 and June '24, despite what some think https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/
(There is a discrepancy between statistics, which I'm trying to "bottom")
That is kind of assuming that Trump is brokering a "bad" deal just to stop spending on arms.
Or something more horrible, Ukraine as macguffin with a destabilised and weakened EU being the aim.
Re: my post ^^
The financial picture is complicated by the stopping of USAID and the Presidential Drawdowns under President Biden that aren't included in many headline figures.
None of the "west" has sent all of the aid pledged to Ukraine, which further complicates things and I can't be bothered to sort through it now
Just read in the Economist's interview with Zelensky that Russia has 220 divisions, Ukraine has 110 and Europe has 80.
Well, the "Ukraine deal" has taken another turn. Earlier this week Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that Ukraine's pre-2014 borders were an unrealistic expectation and NATO membership wasn't a solution, it's now reported that,
"Right now, that is still on the table," said John Coale, President Donald Trump's deputy Ukraine envoy, when asked whether the U.S. had ruled out possible NATO membership for Ukraine. Speaking in an interview with Reuters in Munich, he added that a possible return to Ukraine's pre-2014 lines was also still on the table.
and
Speaking after Coale's comments, Trump told reporters in the White House that he did not believe Russia would "allow" Ukraine NATO membership, blaming President Joe Biden's administration for broaching the subject in the first place.
"I believe that is the reason the war started," Trump said. "Biden shouldn't have said that."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-membership-ukraine-not-off-table-us-official-says-2025-02-13/
Ramstein Conference 26 began on the 12th in Germany, which may explain the change in negotiation strategy, chaired by our very own John Healey.