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Russia is getting some different cues and the US public is getting a look at the value in supporting Ukraine
Speaking on Fox News after a brief trip to Kyiv, Bessent said his trip was part of President Donald Trump's push to end the Ukraine war, but also to "let the American people know that we have a stake and that there will be value created for them." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-treasurys-bessent-says-americans-will-see-value-ukraine-them-2025-02-14/
U.S. Vice President JD Vance has weighed-in, saying,
the U.S. could hit Moscow with sanctions and potential military action if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv's long-term independence, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-threatens-sanctions-military-action-push-putin-into-ukraine-deal-wsj-2025-02-14/
Adding to the headache is the upcoming anniversary of Alexei Navalny's death.
Ordinary Russians are still supporting his political movement and being imprisoned. Displaying his name is an offence and showing a photo is extremism https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-pursues-navalny-supporters-one-year-after-opposition-leaders-death-2025-02-14/
While ISW reports,
Azerbaijani outlets also reported on February 6 that Azerbaijani authorities announced the closure of the local Rossotrudnichestvo branch in Baku, Azerbaijan citing national security concerns and a move away from “external interference."
Russia currently has over 80 Rossotrudnichestvo branches concentrated in Europe, Africa, Latin America, and Central and Southeast Asia aimed at promoting Russian culture, strengthening the influence of the Russian language, supporting “compatriots abroad,” and preserving historical sites abroad with significance to Russia.
Moldovan and Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russian officials use the branches to promote Russian propaganda and conduct “subversive work” abroad. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2025
This underscores the movement of Azerbaijan away from Russian influence as mentioned ^^
In an Oval Office presser Trump confirmed that he would continue with arms shipments to Ukraine. We’ll obviously have to wait and see if it’s true or not.
It feels like some super advanced 3D chess is going on.....or no-one actually has a clue what trump is going to do or say....
or no-one actually has a clue (including Trump himself) what trump is going to do or say....
7D pigeon chess, its like 3d chess, but with 4 extra dimensions that you didnt know about, that somehow have also been shat on
Richard Tice being turned inside out on how much to concede to end a war
So it’s clear what Trump is giving Putin, but Trump is transactional, so what is Putin giving Trump that we don’t know about?
Zelensky suggesting a European army is needed, and not being too subtle in suggesting USA is simply not a reliable ally anymore.
Trump and his team on a mission to isolate USA, and their doing a great job .. it's bonkers to see this playing out.
Morning catch-ups on this thread after a bit of news reading. J.D. Vance is quite "special" to use the Munich conference for a domestic lecture on democracy amongst other issues...
Trump is transactional in his "America first and only" approach.
Wasn't there a similar position about "protecting the oil" in Syria?
The rare earths are located in the Donbas region though…..
The rare earths are located in the Donbas region though…..
How convenient for the invading forces ...
I can't keep up.
1 day became 100 days and is now 180 days. This is off the table, now it's back on, etc, etc.
I'm going to wait and see what the collective west (including Ukraine) decides because this is making my head hurt
Trump is transactional in his "America first and only" approach.
President Zelenskyy won't sign because nowhere does it guarantee Ukraine's security.
The 1994 Budapest Memoranda gave an illusion of security through political commitment that wasn't guaranteed and he won't be falling for that one again 🙂
A lot of money "given" to Ukraine will be repaid under current arrangements, e.g.
Treasury Department Announces Disbursement of $20 Billion Loan to Benefit Ukraine, To Be Repaid with Proceeds Earned from Immobilized Russian Sovereign Assets https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2744
The same article goes on to say,
Ongoing support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression demonstrates the resolve of the United States and our partners to defend democracy against belligerent authoritarian regimes, to protect the global economy, and to reinforce our collective security. Supporting Ukraine is also vital for the national interest of the United States.
President Zelenskyy won't sign because nowhere does it guarantee Ukraine's security.
Zelensky might not have a choice. Trump wants the war ending so he can say he has ended the war. He doesn't actually care about Ukraine, just the fact HE finished the war for the MAGA crowd at home. It will be take it or get no other support from us to Zelensky. No support from the USA basically stops UKR dead in its tracks, Europe can't ramp up to cover it. Securing a portion of his country might be the only option for him.
The minerals he will take from either Putin or Zelensky, he just wants end to fighting so he can get American contractors in doing the digging. Its just business. Saves a few million in aid to UKR too for the fanbase/Musk/DOGE at home too.
If Trump starts dealing with Putin for exporting stuff then the argument for Europe not using ther gas is going to get weaker for the politicians too.
Zelensky might not have a choice.
Of course he has a choice. It might be a choice between a range of difficult options, but it's still a choice. Keep in mind that Trump has painted himself into a corner - he poses as a tough guy who can get results by banging on the table and shouting. He can't afford to walk away from this looking like a loser, but one of the options that Zelensky has is to publicly humiliate Trump. That would be a last resort option after everything else has failed, but Trump will be desperate to avoid looking like a weakling and that's something that Zelensky can exploit.
A timely assessment by APN, on the developments of the last few days. It explains why, despite effectively being sidelined by Trump in his rush to deal with Russia, Ukraine has way more agency than Trump gives them credit for in deciding how and when the war ends. Also why Trump's current plan to end the war won't work. As ever from APN, it's a well informed, credible and impartial take. The US state department could save themselves a whole lot of time, effort and disappointment by watching it.
Trump has painted himself into a corner - he poses as a tough guy who can get results by banging on the table and shouting. He can't afford to walk away from this looking like a loser, but one of the options that Zelensky has is to publicly humiliate Trump
I'm not sure Trump and his puppet masters have figured it out yet, but his rambling and contradictory statements run a real risk that other states will also decide to humiliate/ignore him and do their own thing.
Better to struggle with reliable allies than be ****ed about by an untrustworthy idiot.
Zelensky might not have a choice.
Of course he has a choice.
He does and it's widely reported here and in the US that he's already knocked the agreement back. Whether that state of affairs can continue, who knows?
None of this has passed through Congress as far as I'm aware and there are certainly Republican politicians who wouldn't agree with their government, assuming it needs assent.
It doesn't take much imagination to see what Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania sees. The full article is worth reading
I have always felt that China is looking for a way to emerge as the victor, and that is worryingly possible. If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's.
https://landsbergis.com/china-could-win-the-war-against-ukraine-without-firing-a-shot/
Ukraine will not succeed even with support from US and EU. The line is drawn.
You know what? I think you’re right, ever since Russia deployed their strategic donkeys to the front line, western civilisation is done. Game over!
Given how transactional Trump is, and is asking Ukraine for mineral rights in exchange for support, I think all the countries that lent the US their support during the various middle eastern adventures ought to bill them for the cost of the military they sent with hefty additions for the international reputational damage it caused
Maybe raise revenue for Ukraine by taxing the US Pharma and Media giants who creatively pay less tax in the Eurozone.
Listened to an interesting podcast recently about how this play out, the trouble is if you allow Russia to take a great swathe of Ukraine as an end to the conflict, then that may legitimise China in seeking to take Taiwan which they have been angling to do for a long time. Then how do you address North Korea who again would like to gain ground and have been supplying troops to Russia for Ukraine, and countries like India and Turkey who continued to ignore sanctions and have cheap Russian gas piped to them, the conflict is far bigger than just Ukraine/ Russia..
It doesn't take much imagination to see what Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania sees.
I thought this was an interesting article. I'm not as pessimistic as he is about China, but why wouldn't Ukraine bring them in to the discussion?
If Ukraine is now in a situation where it needs to barter away revenues to rare earth minerals in exchange for military aid / support, then there's suddenly a strong incentive for them to hit up China and see if they've got a better offer than the USA.
This would obviously throw a big spanner in the works - Russia certainly wouldn't want Chinese weapons pointing at them from a new front, the EU wouldn't want it, and the USA would have to think carefully about the strategic influence they cede as they withdraw from Europe.
But it could be an interesting bargaining chip/brinksmanship option.
then there's suddenly a strong incentive for them to hit up China and see if they've got a better offer than the USA.
Agree. I've been thinking similarly, esp. as Trump seems to be particularly paranoid about China. Seems like almost a no-brainer to me if the USA doesn't bring Ukraine to the table too.
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Really hope this is not a MAGA sell out of Ukraine, ending up as Belarus 2. Just cannot see how Trump would sell this to the liberal democratic world.
von ribbentrop pact for the 21st century.
Watching how this is playing out is unbelievable at times.
Trump and his team of other clueless idiots are damaging USA as much as their (former) allies.
Europe won't be the only one's scrambling to find their own deterrents now USA have revealed themselves as untrustworthy and unreliable.
Will this mean more countries acquiring nuclear capabilities to protect themselves? Will the USA ever be able to mend the damage Trump is doing to them?
The tide is slowly turning, in the Pokrovsk area, Ukraine is beginning to retake territory. Russia looks to have culminated.
Can't see any of the other NATO countries rushing to help out the US if China decides to go all in for Taiwan. This America First BS might misfire badly for that one.
the USA would have to think carefully about the strategic influence they cede as they withdraw from Europe.
This is the bit Trump doesn't get - there's a sound argument "not my continent, not my problem" that plays well to his home audience, but the rest of the world could move on a long way after 4 years of his shit.
So what’s the long game here:
russia and the us do a deal without Europe or Ukraine where occupied territory remains with Russia as per their demands.
Ukraine directed as to what it must accept, which is rejected by European countries and Ukraine.
US wash their hands and withdraw support as it’s a “European” and Nato issue.
The US deal includes, as Russia demand, rolling back sanctions….which they start to do
katja kallas seems to understand Russians quite well…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u1cTRn5tBs8
Things are a bit fractious here at the moment in Germany with our elections this weekend. The timing of the talks lands right across this and the migration topic is yet again front and centre after attacks in German cities. The Afd are capitalising on this and it's a recent issue in Villach, Austria after an attack there too. I do find the Geopolitics fascinating and perplexing at the same time.
This, from our American asset: Agent Orange this morning.
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cd0n5e1pdz9o
Can't see any of the other NATO countries rushing to help out the US if China decides to go all in for Taiwan.
It's very unlikely USA would even give consideration to go to Taiwans defence now.
Trump looks to be burning the house down as quickly as he can. When the consequences of it hits home, they will come after him and his idiots with venom ..
The long game? Trump doesn't have one. He wants a nobel.peace prize for ending yhe wsr and has zero understanding of the situation.
Putin wants ukraine and particularly itz minerals undef Russian control and wants to get out of his disastrous war eoghout being defeated. He needs something he can call a win.
Putin is playing trump like a violin
It's very unlikely USA would even give consideration to go to Taiwans defence now.
The USAs love of / need for semiconductors might suggest otherwise..
Trump’s USA is different… he’d be quite happy for China and Russia to take territory, resources and production from others… if the USA gets more as well.