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One thing America can do is flood the market with oil and tank its price. The collapse oil the oil price was one of the major factors in the fall of the USSR in 91.
Trupms actual claim was he’d end the war in 24hrs, BFORE he took office.
One thing America can do is flood the market with oil and tank its price.
That would require moral courage, selflessness and a willingness to undergo domestic economic pain for the greater good. Chances of that with the orange shit gibbon in the Whitehouse?
One of his aides said the comments were no more than ‘Campaign Bluster’.
You could put that on a bus probably
As I said in an earlier post, 6-9 months ago I was almost 100% certain that a new Trump administration would cut all aid to Ukraine almost immediately, it was a fairly educated assumption too, weighing up the rhetoric of those around him and the general buzz on the right of America.
Now I'm really not sure and I'm beginning to suspect that a lot of the vocal Anti-Ukraine opposition we've seen from Team Trump over the last few years may have come from a simple bad faith domestic political strategy of just reflexively opposing everything Joe Biden did for the sake of it.
He's clearly given up on ending the war on day 1 and has given his envoy 100 days to work on it. He's so far heaped much more pressure on Russia than Ukraine.
I have zero faith that this won't be some sort of cover so that he can seem reasonable when he decides to stiff Ukraine later. However, on Ukraine (unlike on so many of the other early aspects of his regime) his teams's approach so far seems fairly nuanced and not the utter catastrophe I foresaw.
Putin's decision to bet everything on holding out until Trump arrived may be about to backfire if Trump is now being briefed by a National security team who are telling him that Russia is almost cooked and that it will be fairly simple task for Trump to take credit for vanquishing one of America's most implacable foes.
He just may be about to do the right thing for the wrong reasons, if he gets out of the bed on the right side that day anyway.
^^If that happens, much as I despise the bloke I will grudgingly give him credit for it. It's an optimistic take, but it's clear that what he says in opposition and what he is likely to do in government are very different. At the very least I hope he's got everyone in the Kremlin flapping and second guessing.
I think that might be an optimistic assessment of Trump, his latest outburst is to blame Ukraine for the war as they should have "done a deal". I can't imagine what deal would have been acceptable to either side I that scenario!
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-blames-ukraines-zelenskiy-starting-war-with-russia-2024-10-17/
I think that might be an optimistic assessment of Trump, his latest outburst is to blame Ukraine for the war as they should have “done a deal”. I can’t imagine what deal would have been acceptable to either side I that scenario!<br style="box-sizing: border-box; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246/0.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; color: #ffffff; font-family: Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Noto Sans', sans-serif, -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; background-color: #444444;" /> https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-blames-ukraines-zelenskiy-starting-war-with-russia-2024-10-17/
Latest? That's Oct 2024.
Yeah, that's pre-Election, so it's an entirely different Trump apparently.
He's so mercurial and takes everything so personally that either side could end up putting their foot in it by refusing to pay sufficiently grovelly lip service to whatever wizard wheeze he comes up with.
He could tell Russia to sign a ceasefire unaware that a tiny bit of small print hidden in the details is a huge red line for then and then blow a gasket when Putin says no and send Ukraine a full carrier battle group or something.
Zelensky certainly seems to be turning on the charm, fully aware of how this Whitehouse works, he's not dumb.
We should bear this in mind if he starts very publically kissing Donny's shapely behind and not judge him too harshly, it will be toe curling to watch but what would you do if the future freedom of your country was genuinely at stake.... pucker up buttercup!
We should bear this in mind if he starts very publically kissing Donny’s shapely behind and not judge him too harshly, it will be toe curling to watch but what would you do if the future freedom of your country was genuinely at stake…. pucker up buttercup!
Well we can see that happening closer to home with our own PM, who has a lot less at stake than Zelensky! Political pragmatism, I get it. It's hard to watch though!
Trump has the ability to make life vastly harder for the UK economically if he decides to act on his reflexive dislike of Starmer, which is largely due to him being more than 2 inches to the left of Heinrich Himmeler
Sir Keir just needs to keep the UK's head below the parapet.
Can't say I envy him, it's easy to have principles when you don't have to actually run anything.
Latest? That’s Oct 2024.
He said today that Zelensky “shouldn’t have let the war happen”.
Political pragmatism, I get it
You aren't the only one.
President Trump likes strong leaders and President Putin has been on that list, however, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the obliteration of the 3-day operation, followed by Russia's reliance on Iran and NKorea and now the destruction of its economy have tarnished that reputation.
Putin is setting the scene for a negotiated settlement and has fallen back on Trump's words in 2016, "If he praises me, I'm going to praise him back."
"I can't help agreeing with him that if he had been president, if his victory had not been stolen in 2020, then perhaps there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that arose in 2022," the Kremlin leader said. In February that year Putin launched what he called his "special military operation" in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-putin-says-he-trump-should-meet-talk-about-ukraine-war-energy-prices-2025-01-24/
President Zelensky also has a tarnished reputation with President Trump for failing to dish the dirt on Hunter Biden leading to Trump's 2019-2020 impeachment proceedings
Zelensky certainly seems to be turning on the charm, fully aware of how this Whitehouse works, he’s not dumb.
In the meantime, this business nuance won't be lost on President Trump
U.S. military equipment sales to foreign governments in 2024 surged 29% to a record $318.7 billion, the State Department said on Friday, as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for major conflicts.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-related-demand-sends-us-arms-exports-record-2024-2025-01-24/
On Moldova
"The leader of Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region, gripped by power and heating cuts, said on Friday that gas reserves would be exhausted within days and urged the central government to end "artificial delays" and provide new supplies."
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said, "The Moldovan government wants the region to have gas, but the Kremlin does not want to resume gas supplies. It wants to create conflict between people on the east bank of the Dniester River and those on the other side."
"Government officials said no payment had been received from Transdniestria to cover gas purchases from international markets." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovas-separatist-region-says-gas-running-out-2025-01-24/
On Slovakia, which is facing the real prospect of an early snap election in the first half of 2025, brought forward from 2027
"Tens of thousands of protesters (est. 60k) thronged a central square in the Slovak capital on Friday, waving banners opposing Prime Minister Robert Fico's policy shift closer to Russia, after tensions between the government and the opposition rose."
"The protests were nearing levels seen in 2018 when the murder of an investigative journalist caused mass demonstrations and forced Fico's resignation."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-protests-build-rebuke-pm-ficos-russian-tilt-2025-01-24/
The leader of Moldova’s separatist Transdniestria region
I've issues of the civilians having to deal with freezing cold and lack of power due to leadership and Russian influence.
Equally, pick the Russians as your side and suffer the consequences.
U.S. military equipment sales to foreign governments in 2024 surged 29% to a record $318.7 billion, the State Department said on Friday, as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for major conflicts.
Which majority makes its way back to America through arms sales. In the grand scheme of things there isnt actually a huge amount of non Ukrainian money that has ended in Ukraine. As they say, war is good for economies with a strong arms industry.
Lots of rumours that the US has stopped all foreign aid except that going to Egypt and Israel.
How that affects Ukranain aid that's already been signed into law ornstuff that's already en route or stuff that's being used to replace kit that allies have already shipped is another matter, the devil will be in the details as always and there's no point freaking out at this point.
Lots of rumours that the US has stopped all foreign aid except that going to Egypt and Israel.
It's "foreign assistance funded by or through the Department and USAID* without the Secretary of State’s authorization or the authorization of his designee” *US Agency for International Development
It doesn't include weapons exports to Ukraine, but it does include areas that may impact, e.g. refugees, cyber-crime and international treaties. The FT reports that a waiver has already been requested, similar to that already included for Israel and Egypt
There will be other discussions around weapons exports I have no doubt, but nothing is happening yet; on a positive note, General Keith Kellogg told Fox News on the 24th that the US was looking at using Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine
using Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine
Meaning the US will gain income from russian assetts to pay for arms to be manufactured in the US for Ukraine. All round win then.
Sweden has detained another ship for dragging its anchor in the Baltic.
Time for robust action on hybrid warfare.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, ie an act of war.
Agreed it is time to call out the acts of terrorism and war which are going on, funded and facilitated by Russia.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, i.e. an act of war.
True, but NATO is not going to start the tanks rolling east over a cable and Russia knows it.
Best way to respond is by arresting and detaining those who carry out these acts and make it very clear that they will not deter Western states from supporting Ukraine...
...which is what they are ostensibly the whole point of Russia doing this in the first place.
TLDR edit: see hatter^^
So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, ie an act of war.
Without prejudicing either writer, STW is a microcosm of exactly what Russia intends; falling out amongst allies. If they can split either the EU or NATO they win
Sweden has detained another ship for dragging its anchor in the Baltic.
And yet Sweden buys Russian LNG, while the EU won't sanction its use (although it is on a list of proposed EU sanctions for 2025, with Sweden as a signatory) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-eu-countries-call-sanctions-russian-gas-lng-document-shows-2025-01-13/
It would be far less escalatory to agree to sanction Russian products and so cut the use of the Russian fleet, which makes under-the-Article-5-threshold-damage much simpler to police. This increases the apprehension of being caught and losing vessels.
It also means that you don't rely on a supplier that already showed a willingness to cut gas supplies completely, e.g. via NordStream in 2022.
It's interesting to note that new build LNG infrastructure plans increased in 2022, to the point of over-capacity for existing needs, and that calmer heads have prevailed to put some of the new facilities on hold. EU demand for LNG will continue to reduce with climate change targets https://maritime-executive.com/magazine/terminal-trouble-is-the-eu-building-too-many-regasification-terminals
The world needed some Russian oil trade, otherwise it could have triggered a global recession - which no one wants.
But, taking this seriously and being proactive- impounding ships etc and demonstrating that there will be consequences will send the right message to Moscow.
Nothing that's been said excludes this, however, the suspect vessel for the latest incident doesn't fit the profile of the last three attacks.
It seems likely that crewmember(s) have been paid to drop the anchor, rather than a mission for the entire ship. The ship is operated by a company from Bulgaria, which is both a member of the EU and NATO. Its interception probably won't bother Moscow, but does have the potential to sow mistrust in the west https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx9g5wwp89o
Reducing ship movements through sanctions increases the apprehension of being caught, both for individuals and for companies, which reduces the likelihood of damage and increases chances for effective policing and justice. The evidence so far is that sanctioning shipping doesn't invite attacks
The world needed some Russian oil trade...
The attacks on Baltic cables didn't begin until almost a year after the EU banned ship-borne crude oil from Russia in December 2022. Ship-borne refined products were banned in Feb 2023, six months before the first attack
I don’t see any sign that Sweden is blaming Bulgaria for this?
I watched this
its highly (impossible) for this to happen by accident
Ultimately the ships captain is responsible for the ship, right?
I don’t see any sign that Sweden is blaming Bulgaria for this?
I watched this>
Blaming allies only benefits Russia, I think that we're in agreement on those points ^^
Ultimately the ships captain is responsible for the ship, right?
Responsibility and prosecution are two different thresholds. Is a school bus driver responsible for the county lines drugs carried by a school pupil?
I still think that we're in agreement though 🙂
Not sure how to summarise beyond the URL text without with the nuance of the details.
Not sure how to summarise beyond the URL text without with the nuance of the details
Around 1/4 of the "shadow fleet" is now sanctioned. Two new companies are also newly sanctioned, by both the UK and US
Oil ordered before 10th Jan can be offloaded from newly sanctioned ships by the end of Feb and payment made in March. Payment has traditionally been a complicated dance to avoid secondary sanctions on certain currencies and banking systems while Russia gets a currency that it considers usable, that alone takes time
Russia will be looking at ways to either circumvent the latest sanctions or just sell to anyone really cheaply. Refining crude to new products might be one option for them, blurring the origin of the crude, but that will mean a different fleet of unsanctioned smaller product tankers, rather than larger crude tankers
Serbia is the latest country to be looking at a snap election. President Vucic has been treading a fine line between EU accession and keeping in with Russia, e.g. he decried Russia's invasion of Ukraine but didn't impose sanctions
"Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has resigned (yesterday), following nationwide protests over the deadly collapse of a railway station canopy." The government has been accused of corruption, however, changes in government might not herald major change. It depends whether the people are satisfied with just a change of government or if they go after a change of President as well https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1m5x1j3p2yo
Have we done more Patriots, but from 'storage' in Israel.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/us-patriot-missiles-ukraine-israel
And also, if this is true, this puts the northern fleet into the firing line...?
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lgv3p5tnq22s
Hungary has also been persuaded to allow anew round of European sanctions to go ahead.
ukraine is busy smashing Russian oil refineries further weakening Russias economy.
Seems the cost of using the 'shadow fleet' has risen due to the new sanctions and the actions of 'impounding' some of the boats. Knock on is that India and China are now able to buy oil for (significantly) cheaper through the open market, and so have stopped buying from Russia as of March.
We have predicted many times, but it does seem the economics could be the thing which somehow ends this war?
I also note that Ukraine is really, really going after the oil infrastructure, with attacks on a refinery one week being followed up a few days or week later. As well as reducing refining capacity, this must be forcing Russia to keep back air defence systems from the front AND have the biggest companies in Russia feel that they are now increasingly bearing the cost of this war?
I also note that Ukraine is really, really going after the oil infrastructure
A direct result of the US election being over, the Biden administration were hyper sensitive to being blamed for Gasoline prices going a Ukraine was hitting Russian oil infrastructure and that this would erode support for both them and Ukraine.
As soon as the election was done Biden had no good reason to continue this policy of restraint so the Ukrainians have effectively been let off the hook and we are seeing the results of that.
I continue to strongly suspect that Putin has spent the last 2 years banking almost everything on just getting the war to the end of 2024 betting that Trump would get in again and immediately abandon Ukraine, forcing them to the negotiating table on Russia's terms.
He was correct on the first side of that equation but so far the second is looking very shaky and the cracks are really starting to show in Russia's home front.
So far in this war Elvira Nabiullina has been worth more to Putin than a dozen Tank divisions, she's done a fantastic job of keeping the Russia economy going under enormous pressure, but she's not a wizard and the measures they've put in place won't be able to defy gravity forever.
So far in this war Elvira Nabiullina has been worth more to Putin than a dozen Tank divisions, she’s done a fantastic job of keeping the Russia economy going under enormous pressure, but she’s not a wizard and the measures they’ve put in place won’t be able to defy gravity forever.
And presumably the longer it goes on, the harder it'll fall. Fingers crossed it's soon.
The thing is, I've read multiple theories that Putin's team are almost as worried about what happens when the war ends as they are about the war itself.
Right now inflation is sky high but if you're a Russian of working age you're being offered fantastic wages to work in the military industrial complex, if you're a fit, healthy man you're being offered even more money to sign up to fight.
As a result lot of working and middle class Russian people are doing very well out of the war, which has been key to keeping a lid on public discontent, the moment the war ends and the money taps get turned off it's going to get very bad very quickly and Russia just doesn't have the money to lessen the blow anymore.
They can't afford to continue the war for much longer, but stopping it is very likely to be the thing that smashes Putin's grip on power.
Their only hope is a Trump facilitated 'victory' they can sell back home and an immediate lifting of all sanctions so their economy doesn't implode.
As it stands, whilst the war is not going well, Putin kicking the can down the road to keep it grinding on is not unlikely, the Russian economy now basically needs war to function.
As a result lot of working and middle class Russian people are doing very well out of the war, which has been key to keeping a lid on public discontent, the moment the war ends and the money taps get turned off it’s going to get very bad very quickly and Russia just doesn’t have the money to lessen the blow anymore.
I think we are all hoping that the economics turn off the tap for the war machine... And there has to be a point where even the state cannot afford the basics and inflation explodes...
Right now inflation is sky high but if you’re a Russian of working age you’re being offered fantastic wages to work in the military industrial complex, if you’re a fit, healthy man you’re being offered even more money to sign up to fight.
I've read this too, but the flip side is that non-military industry, food production etc. is suffering with lack of workers and high interest loan repayments, which is further exacerbating inflation. When will the spiral stop...
They can’t afford to continue the war for much longer
Unfortunately this has been said for a couple of years now. As I said just before, I really hope you're right.
Really interesting article from Swedish website Frivarld
Differences in opinion between Finland and Sweden to Russia's hybrid warfare and invasion of Ukraine,
...many in Finland consider the country’s immediate security situation to be better than ever since gaining independence in 1917
whereas...
Sweden simply had it much better during both the Second World War and the Cold War – and scaled down its armed forces...
and Russia's aim
...the point is to test European countries’ preparedness level and resilience without crossing the threshold of armed conflict – and essentially keeping it outside of NATO’s more effective response options.
Lots of other insight (in English) at https://frivarld.se/sakerhetsradet/dealing-with-russias-peacetime-warfare-the-finnish-and-swedish-context/
Steve Rosenberg's latest YouTube Reading Russia (31st). Any transcription errors are mine,
...according to Moskovskij Komsomolets, last December 70% of the loans taken out by Russians were from micro-finance institutions, medium-term loans to tide people over until next month's pay packet. A year ago that figure was 47.4%
There is an obvious paradox here. On the one hand, according to official statistics, the income of the population keeps rising. On the other hand, as real life demonstrates, people don't have enough money for their current needs to pay their housing and utility bills.
...the paper adds that 15 to 20% of Russians must take out loans to make it through to their next pay packet
The Reading Russia clip continues with examples comparing official inflation figures to the rising cost of food (already mentioned a few weeks ago) and the cost of European car parts rising between 20% and 50%.
Russia's civilian population is feeling this war
Steve Rosenberg, respect.
How does he ever get to sleep at night