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Moldova referendum:
Official data put Yes on 50.31% and No on 49.69% on Monday morning, with over 99% of votes counted.
With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.
Now the Russian bots will be pushing a "stop the steal" line no doubt.
With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.
Yup! Phew, it's clear that Russia threw a ton of effort into this and looks right now like it hasn't worked, but only by a whisker.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o
The presidential race will go to a run off in November now, hopefully this experience will allow Sandu to go hard with 'Our Counry is not for sale" messaging.
So long as Putin's outriders do actually lose, all that's happened is that they've spent a ton of money that could have been used to buy Rockets to chuck at Ukraine and got very little in return so.... good...?
Ukraine in 2014 were further down the road to Russian dominance with a president basically controlled from the Kremlin etc so shaking it off was and continues to be is a hugely painful process, today's vote in Moldova is about not going further down that path so bloodshed is not required,
So long as Putin’s outriders do actually lose, all that’s happened is that they’ve spent a ton of money that could have been used to buy Rockets to chuck at Ukraine and got very little in return so…. good…?
I'm guessing he'll continue to attempt to destabilise the country as much and however he can. He's really predictable in that regard but yep, it's a win for Moldova for sure and hopefully sets them well and truly on the path to EU membership.
Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference. Imagine looking at Russia and saying, "yeah, definitely want to be aligned with them, they are doing great."
That said, we have Putin fans over here and the US might just be about to elect one as president. Madness.
With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.
Now the Russian bots will be pushing a “stop the steal” line no doubt.
It's inevitable because of the "glitters and gold" on offer to a small population.
Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference.
Turnout was about 50%, if one side is actively paying it's supporters to show up and the other side isn't (as appears to be the case here) that's always going to have a potential to skew the result in low-turnout election.
And sadly, in every county there is always as decent chunk of the population whose attitude is that politics is nothing to do with them and don't really look beyond their own bubbles, which means that when somebody wafts a wad of cash under their noses they're fairly pliable as they don't really care one way or the other.
In fairness the Brexit referendum was far from, low turnout but yes, Russia was actively involved in trying to sway the vote and also in trying to amplify the most divisive and destructive sentiments that arose in it's wake, much of the talk of 'riots in the streets' in 2018/19 if a rock hard Brexit was not enacted can be traced back to Russian Troll farms.
Issue was that at the time the government in power had zero interest in investigating as it as at that point Brexit was an article of faith that was above criticism and the last thing they wanted was to undermine their own mandate by poking holes in the 2016 result.
So in this instance, for Russia the Brexit vote was a roaring success, removed one of the most vocal and militarily capable anti-Kremlin voices from the EU and greatly embolded Putin.
It's not that much of a reach to argue that no Brexit = no 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Putin will be absolutely furious
Maia Sandu faces a runoff against the 2 other pro- Russia candidates, whether she wins or not I'd be very wary of poisoning or other forms of assassination
It’s not that much of a reach to argue that no Brexit = no 2022 Ukraine invasion.
We'll never know for sure but I can't but help agree. That and Trump undermining confidence in NATO of course.
I really f****** hope he loses, for Ukraine's sake as much as anyone's.
Putin will be absolutely furious
I don't think he's wired up that way. It's just another problem to solve, crooks to pay off, situation to manipulate, individuals to threaten or intimidate, people to kill..... all to get to his endgame.
makes you wonder about brexit doesn’t it.
No, There was already plenty of evidence to show that social media was used in very specific ways to put a thumb on a scale on the side of the leave campaign. We need rules now (like those of broadcast and print media) to make the owners of places like X/Twitter/Insta/TicToc and so on publishers, to bring them into line.
In the future we'll look at this time of social media use like the days of cars and no seat belt rules, or advertising for fags
No, There was already plenty of evidence to show that social media was used in very specific ways to put a thumb on a scale on the side of the leave campaign. We need rules now (like those of broadcast and print media) to make the owners of places like X/Twitter/Insta/TicToc and so on publishers, to bring them into line.
In the future we’ll look at this time of social media use like the days of cars and no seat belt rules, or advertising for fags
Also Brexit wasn't a binding referendum, so not subject to strict rules around campaigning... it was 'advisory' so basically a free for all for 'leave' to poison the public narrative any way they felt like.
Putin will be absolutely furious
Nothing will change in the foreseeable future:
Moldova needs to elect a pro-EU president and control its borders first.
Ukraine's President Yanukovych refused to sign a trade agreement with the EU, which had been agreed by their parliament, and led to the Euromaidan of November 2013. This became a full uprising a couple of months later, Yanukovych fled for Russia.
Russia then "annexed" Crimea at which point the EU project was over because you have to control your international borders to join the EU
Now substitute Moldova and Transnistria... control your international borders to join the EU
Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference.
Stunning it was that close really, despite the interference.
About a year ago, I posted something on here about Ukraine's allies having to be ready for Munich/Mossad style reprisals against individual Russians involved in the worst atrocities of the current war.
Well...
This won't be the last, or the most brutal.
*can we avoid spoiling this thread by bringing in the Brexit crowd please
sorry my fault, I will go and stand in the corner, as you were
Stunning it was that close really, despite the interference.
In June domestic opinion polls were majority pro-EU, around 60%, which didn't account for Moldovans living elsewhere.
By the time of the referendum domestic votes were majority anti-EU and votes from elsewhere carried the win. Those votes were counted last, I assume to allow for postage delays, transportation, etc, and the late swing pro-EU has now caused allegations of vote-rigging from the opposition!
(EU) Membership requires:
- that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities
It's a reflection of a country that has a way to go to achieve EU membership and that's assuming that a Russian military garrison in Transnistria can be somehow negotiated.
Ironically, Russia invading Ukraine has helped Moldova because Ukraine has closed its border with Transnistria, thus securing the international border. The war has also guaranteed that Ukraine won't be renewing agreements for energy supply routes from Russia for 2025.
The Moldova (which includes Transnistria) Support Platform has worked to guarantee both gas and electricity supplies from EU neighbours and stop Russia's influence over energy supplies that it has used in the past, e.g. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-accuses-russia-energy-blackmail-ready-any-scenario-2022-11-23/
The theory is that with Moldovan energy and trade all now bound up with the EU that Transnistria will fall into line with the national government by 2030 to properly secure its borders. That still leaves the Russian presence to negotiate.
The worst thing that can happen for democracy in both Ukraine and Moldova is for support to Ukraine to fail (massive thread drift, but it does come back to Ukraine 🙂 )
*can we avoid spoiling this thread by bringing in the Brexit crowd please
Sorry, I did feel it was relevant due to the parallels with what is happening in Moldova and the way it directly affects the wider 'Russia Vs The West' situation.
Let's stick to lighter topics like Russian pilots being killed with hammers.
Sorry, I did feel it was relevant due to the parallels with what is happening in Moldova and the way it directly affects the wider ‘Russia Vs The West’ situation.
Yeah, it's very hard to talk about Russia/Ukraine in isolation as Russia has really been at war with the West (in typical hybrid fashion) for more than a decade.
Brexit was very much part of that strategy and one of Putin's most significant wins. In this thread, what we think of Brexit isn't really important but acknowledging Russians part in it very much is.
https://twitter.com/Daractenus/status/1849443794803961857
In what I believe might be one of the most satisfying pieces of news you'll be reading today, the Moldovan authorities (I'm guessing with some outside help) managed to get substantial information on the Promsviazbank - one of the banks used by the Russians to mass purchase votes in order to influence the Moldovan elections.
To get a sense of the scale of what Russians attempted to do here, the amount of votes purchased (at least through this bank) amounts to 138k, meaning roughly 9% of the total votes cast in this election. The total suspected number goes as high as 300k votes, when accounting for all the other banks and means used by the Russians. Because getting a wire transfer right now from a sanction Russian might just be the worse way to go about doing this, the Moldovan authorities were apparently able to identify all the 138k people that have sold their votes.
The first 400 of the bunch have already been fined with about $1500 each, roughly 10 times the sum of money they sold their vote for. The "recruiters" and "heads" of this operation have also been identified and are looking at ample "me time" to reconsider their choices in all the comfort a Moldovan prison can pamper you in.
Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!
Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!
Yes, but who are paying for the vote? Russia? I doubt it. Coz Boris was the leader in those days and he is closer to USA.
Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!
Indeed. Also, well done Moldova on bringing some real world consequences to those involved.
Yes, but who are paying for the vote? Russia? I doubt it. Coz Boris was the leader in those days and he is closer to USA.
I would honestly bet my prosthetic penis on it being the Russians that were responsible for interfering in the Brexit ref. It's was done more subtly than buying votes, sure, but they were behind it.
Boris wasn't even PM at the time of the referendum anyway. Not that it matters, he has had some rather shady liaisons with Russians. The time he ditched his security detail to go on an all night bender with some ruskies comes to mind.
Anyway, I dont want to drive the thread totally of topic so I'll leave it at that.
..................................
Im just desperately hoping Trump loses the election, in large part purely for what he will do to Ukraine. Sell them out. Shameful.
Boris wasn’t even PM at the time of the referendum anyway. Not that it matters, he has had some rather shady liaisons with Russians.
Yup. Agreeing with you trying not to get off topic but it reminds me of an occasional claim I use about how I believe Christopher Marlowe wrote "Shakespeare's" plays on the grounds that I got a rather good tip and a beer when working in a Canterbury pub from some true believers in that theory. I am an honest person so once brought I stay brought!
Johnson on the other hand took the cash and then decided to play Churchill. Question is how often did he bend to the paymasters vs rebelling?
Thanks Poopscoop. I posted as I think the Ukraine thread would not exist without Russia's malevolence. Amazing though that everything expected in Moldavia has been identified so quickly.
Also worth reading the thread. A further development:
pro-Russian "activists" that were doing the "field work" of convincing people to sell their votes (because the whole thing essentially worked as an MLM), are now starting to find out that their personal details have been used by their Russian handlers to contract large loans from a variety of Russian banks.
^^
Ha! Bloody epic! 😀
LOLZ at the idea Boris wouldn't have taken the money
Slightly in a different direction but connected...
I can't help but be impressed with Steve Rosenberg and his reporting. He Pushed Lukashenko for over 30mins and to be in front of that person who was getting visibly more angry and exasperated must have taken some cahones to stay calm and keep pressing the questions. It was a bit like the court scene from a few good men.. The interview is on Youtube in full.
Then, standing up in the room and putting putin on the spot in Kazan....
I wonder if he gets threatened, followed or restricted in his work. I just find it great no nonsense bold journalism. He must be some sort of tolerated opposing voice. Sarah Rainsford didn't get an easy time and eventually banned.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/06/goodbye-to-russia-by-sarah-rainsford-review-a-personal-reckoning-from-ruins-of-war-russias-dysfunctional-slide-into-dictatorship
I strongly suspect that various Western intelligence agencies had all this info ready and offered to hand it over before the vote but the Moldovan courts didn't want to be seen to be trying to influence the election so they sat on it til afterwards.
Same reason Donny and now possibly Elon aren't currently sat in the holding cell.
It's one of the exploitable quirks of democracies, the feeling is that if you go after the bad actors before a vote they'll squeal persecution and it'll energise their support, making them more likely to win.
But if you wait until after the vote... they may have won anyway.
Fortunately in this instance they didn't win and Moldova (unlike the USA) have decided to move quickly and decisively against those involved to prevent it happening again in November.
If only this had happened after Jan 6th, there was definately a window for action there that was missed.
Haven't seen the interview in full, as you say some seriously bold (potentially risky?!) questioning there by Steve R....
ISW had some interesting analysis on the BRICs summit. I'm particular interested in the positioning of China and India and what they did / didnt say
Also seen commentry on Russia trying to improve relations with S.Korea as they have said they will be sending (more?) aid to ukraine as N. Korea has supposed thousands of troops training in Russia, presumably with a reasonable likelihood of being chucked into the meat grinder
I can’t help but be impressed with Steve Rosenberg and his reporting.
I get that the fact he's a BBC reporter gives him some protection, but hell's bells that man has some balls. I'm amazed he hasn't fallen out of a window, or drunk some dodgy tea so far.
.
I get that the fact he’s a BBC reporter gives him some protection...
Didn't work for that bloke from the New York Times though. Steve should be given a knighthood for services to journalism.
My best case scenario has happened^^:
Israel's strike on Saturday on Iran has "destroyed hit (sic) 12 "planetary mixers" used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, quoting three unnamed Israeli sources as saying this severely damages Iran's ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel."
It'll be extremely difficult for Iran to replace the damaged machinery due to international sanctions.
Israel struck buildings at Parchin, a former nuclear testing facility and plant for producing missile solid fuels and Khojir, a missile production facility.
Khojir was reportedly being expanded earlier this year to boost missile production. The former nuclear facility may have housed test equipment, but even the empty building would be of use to Iran
These strikes will set Iran's missile production back and save countless lives in several conflicts including Ukraine.
The bonus is that world oil prices are likely to drop back in time for the US elections on 5th November
Sources:
Interesting....
Steve Rosenberg: a man with balls that'd impress Danny Hart
I seriously hope they have good security around him.
Putin's response was just a torrent of whataboutery and projection.
Absolute balls of steel. So much shite spouted by Putin in response. But at least he was forced for once to answer difficult questions put directly to him. No one else has the sheer courage to do that to his face. Putin was chillingly polite in his response, but I can't help but think he mentally marked Rosenberg's card for his impudence. Come home now Steve, you've more than done your bit.
How is russias sovereignty at stake by selling us stuff?
Shame there weren’t follow up questions.
Indeed while I'm impressed that Steve asked the question, it makes no difference to Putin's attitudes or course of action to invade and remain in Ukraine, meddle with foreign elections, murder anyone who gets in the way and deliberately cause instability globally....