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Swiss are potentially going to lift re-export restrictions on weapons.... unfortunately it's not about doing the right thing. It's more about doing business. However, it could be a great benefit. Finally...
NATO are reporting NK troops are being deployed to Kursk. Another escalation. I have a completely unfounded view that they will be complete fanatical nut jobs and as hard as nails - no idea if thats true or not, but I would have thought they would be a level above the pressed convicts holding large chunks of that area
*conscripts, not convicts.
How long will the NK troops have spent learning the communist manifesto against learning field craft?
More cannon fodder I fear.
Shit-ot at marching but I don’t think that’s much use…
I think they will find working alongside the Russians a bit of an eye opener……
I reckon a lot of them will be looking to leave Russia for Ukraine!
I reckon a lot of them will be looking to leave Russia for Ukraine!
Could be convenient to 'disappear' on the battlefield. Does Ukraine *have* to tell NK who they have prisoner if the prisoner asks for anonymity? If so, a wee drop of fliers announcing defection is easy...
Nothing to base it on but I could imagine a lot would be in fear of reprisals against their families should the defect or not fight as well as the could.
10k North Koreans are still a big problem for Ukraine even if they defect. See weaponised migration, refugees as weapons etc.
scuttler
Full Member
Shit-ot at marching but I don’t think that’s much use…
The elderly in these authoritarian states all have bad knees that's for sure. High impact stuff and not even allowed to wear Sketchers.
Rumours and reports coming through already that the new N.Korean arrivals are not exactly delighted with the way they are being treated by their new Russian comrades.
Barely any interpreters, terrible living conditions, Russians not passing on enough food for them, the officers openly dispareging them and regarding them as little more than cannon fodder etc etc.
Give it 6 months and we could be looking at a truly impressive mutiny.
If they're going to mutiny, let's hope they do so rather quicker than 6 months. The US presidential inauguration is in Jan and things are likely to have changed by then.
Edit. Posted within 10 secs of johndoh below.
Give it 6 months
If it is as you suggest, I'd be giving it three or four months over the bitterly cold winter.
Yeah the Russians clearly hate the plebs from the east of their own country, so they’re gonna really hate the mega-plebs from the backwater that is DPRK.
Will these be Kim's crack troops or the naughty ones that need reeducating?
The early reports said that the 10,000 North Korean troups were from their special forces rather than their regular forces, so might be better trained and fed than typical North Korean troops.
Keva, there is also the gif of KJU with panda eyes after the binoculars are dropped....
ChrisL
Full Member
The early reports said that the 10,000 North Korean troups were from their special forces
It's a large number and it makes me wonder how special their special forces really are.
No doubt they will willingly die for an order they know to be non sensual but will lack any combat experience and will have had any ability to improvise knocked out of them years ago by the system.
It’s a large number and it makes me wonder how special their special forces really are.
I was listening to the Battleground Ukraine podcast who covered this. Apparently N Korea has 200,000 'special forces', so not particularly elite. A US defence intelligence assessment of their capabilities put them at a '5', where '1' is a conscript and '10' is SAS/Delta Force equivalent. Even if they are SF, it's likely the Russians will use them as conventional infantry which is wasteful of a specialist capability. Sadly for them and I do genuinely mean that, I doubt they had any choice. They are headed for the attritional meat grinder.
Currently a big advance by Russians and Ukraine are struggling to hold them back, extra meat for the grinder will help the Russians
Let's see what happens with the additional troops from NK. When the first NK PoWs turn up then things will have changed
There have been NK engineer troops in this conflict for some time now, along with NK artillery rounds and missiles, but this isn't being given to Russia for free. If Ukraine is whipped up into a fury by talk of an operationally insignificant number of "Special Forces" and launches an attack on their training camps then NK might take it personally. This can only help the Russian cause and lower the costs to them and the strain on the Russian economy
SKorea has stayed out of this directly because internal policy dictates that it doesn't get involved in ongoing wars. Their President doesn't have the support to over-turn that policy, but factor in NK troops getting front-line experience and that support could be forth-coming.
SKorea already supplies Poland with armoured vehicle expertise (the Polish Krab has a SKorean chassis) and has supplied Poland and others (but not Ukraine directly) with additional materiel.
Bringing SKorea directly in would be a mistake for Russia, so let's see where the NK troops end up
It does feel like it's a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.
RustyNissanPrairie
Full Member
It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.
Handled correctly it could lead to a more stable world. A diminished Putin and renewed confidence within Western style democracies
However. Trump.
One potentially worrying thing recently for global stability and proliferation post conflict. Ukraine have intimated that if they aren't given the security of NATO membership or something closely approximating it, then they will pursue the development of nuclear weapons to protect against future Russian aggression. Because of their civil nuclear programme and sophisticated engineering and defence industries they could likely do it in very short order.
Whilst it will wind Putin up immensely, a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire. Far better than the further proliferation of nukes. Especially as that would break a taboo and encourage Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and who knows else to do it because of their own security fears. It's lose/lose for Russia - Ukraine will end up being either a NATO member or become a nuclear power. Much like Finland and Sweden joining NATO, a shit ton of unforeseen negative consequences for Russia of Putin's attempted land grab.
It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.
It does feel like America is voting on a global future as well as for their own President.
a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire.
Whilst that would certainly reduce the chances of Putin 'having another go' a ceasefire right now would leave vast swathes of internationally recognized Ukrainian sovereign territory under Russian occupation.
This will be an inherently unstable situation, Urainian resistance inside these territories is not going to stop just because of a piece of paper and neither will the brutal repression of this resistance. all the while with a rebuilt and battle hardened Ukrainian military just next door watching their countrymen get slaughtered on land that's rightfully theirs.
Zelensky seems to have a cool head but that leaves him open to challenges from an opposition candidate willing to bang the drum of nationalist grievance and there's no lack of material for them to work from.
If a year or two down the line Ukraine attacks the Donbas or Crimea as a result of this, where will NATO stand?
Anything short of a full return to the 2022 and preferably the 2014 borders will be inherently precarious.
If Trump gets a 2nd term and fatally undermines NATO you can expect a swath of 'Western' countries as well as South Korea and Japan to seek nuclear weapons to act as their guarantee against future Russian or Chinese aggression, now the US can no longer be relied upon.
Isn't part of the reason for ukraine occupying some of russian land is to make an immediate ceasefire where the occupier retains the land they have captured completely unfeasible?
Not that I think any ceasefire is likely or worth the paper its written on.
To be clear, I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory. That's up to them. I would dearly love to see them regain all occupied territory back to 2014 borders including Crimea. But as desirable as this is, it doesn't seem likely to me. I think they will have to accept some loss of territory. It grieves me to say it and I know that will leave a very unstable situation, but I think that's what is most likely. Despite my suggestion that NATO should accept Ukraine, I don't think they actually will in those circumstances. So Ukraine will probably have no choice but to develop a nuclear programme and the world will become a bit more unstable 🙁
^^ Regrettably I suspect we will see an enen less stable version of Korea's DMZ.
The Donbas wont be a nice place to live for sure. There will be a lot of pissed off Ukrainians with military training constantly pushing back at Russia. Not much of a victory for Putin.
I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory.
That might be Trumps solution should he win.
If Ukraine doesnt go for it, the war drags on, possibly even forcing Ukraine to the table and the option then is the loss of greater territory than had they accepted the earlier deal.
Some European nuke thoughts https://missilematters.substack.com/p/making-europes-nuclear-deterrent
Ukraine (and Europe) is at a crossroads, the EU still hasn't delivered 1 mn artillery shells that were promised by March 2024.
NK troops aren't confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the "west" and is a potential bellwether.
This article seems to be pretty balanced, it is split by full-width references to other articles, so keep scrolling (5 min read) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-creating-the-conditions-for-russian-victory-in-ukraine/
NK troops aren’t confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the “west” and is a potential bellwether.
I think there will be a bit of a shock factor involved here too. For pretty much all the wrong reasons (other than WW2) Western nations have been overly keen to indulge in wars in Asia. I think it will come as a genuine shock when/if video emerges of NK troops fighting on European soil, on roads that look much like any road in Europe or the US.
From Ukraine's perspective, I hope that shock can literally be weaponised against Russia.
Next week is highly important for Ukraine of course, it's utterly depressing that their entire nations future rests upon an election thousands of miles away from them.
Either way, Americas focus is understandably pivoting towards the Pacific and it's time Europe put it's big boy's pants on and took responsibility for it's own defence. America is just not reliable anymore.
Well, in more positive news it looks like all that money Putin spent trying to buy the Moldovan democratic process was money wasted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7w9dglzzlo
All that money could have bought a whole load of kit to chuck at Ukraine.. win-win
Now.... about Transnistria.
Yep, a renewed Soviet empire not going so will for Putin.
I really hope Biden gives Ukraine free reign to use missiles etc how it wishes, within international law of course.
What's Putin going to do now? Push the big red button, knowing Trump will give him most of what he wants in a couple of months time?
Hit 'em as hard as possible in the meantime and let Trump sort out the shit. 🙂
Come on Biden!
a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire.
Which is what the Budapest Memorandum was for... If we (The UK and US) aren't prepared to step up properly and intervene now why would we because Ukraine had another piece of paper saying that we would?
.
Arguing with myself/thinking out loud. It's sufficiently far away from UK/US (and France and Germany, who weren't signatories to Budapest but with the UK are the biggest militaries in Europe) that it's not immediately our problem and we can just send a few weapons and look like we are doing something. Maybe a proper Article 5 arrangement with NATO (although if they've got that why not just join properly?) would lead to their more immediate neighbours, who are also scared of Russia, Poland for instance, stepping in and then the rest of NATO by extension?
Come on Biden!
You want Biden to risk starting WW3 just to spite Trump? Sorry but that's that f-ing insane and psychotic.
You want Biden to risk starting WW3 just to spite Trump? Sorry but that’s that f-ing insane and psychotic.
I'm neither I assure you. I also have no interest in spiting Trump, just limiting his potential damage. Do you think Putin would risk the lot, his life, his family, his entire country over some conventional missile strikes when Trump is in power within weeks and likely to pressure Ukraine into piece negotiations? Putin just won the lottery as far as Ukraine is concerned.
Ukraine entering those negotiations at a time it is proving it can hit back further into Russia than before, at sites used to launch attacks on Ukraine is a good thing. I've lost count how often Putin has referenced nukes and his bluff has been called each time. He is holding out for Trump, he has no need or wish to launch nukes. I have no wish to have my grandkids die just to spite Trump, to suggest that is absurd.
This very scenario is being openly discussed by some very sane non psychotic Dems and even non MAGA Republicans.
On a purely personal note please don't call me "psychotic". A friend's son has been down that road and its a *clinical* diagnosis I doubt you are qualified to make, its not something to be banded about on STW to win a discussion. I've seen it tear a family apart, first hand.
I have no problem with you fundamentally disagreeing with me at all but the use of such a term is completely unjustified and I find it's use in this context both insulting to me and to those that do suffer from it or it's collateral fallout.
Thank you.