Forum menu
Sells him on a Trump tower in Kiev 😉 Buys one of his ridiculous watches? Actually just calling him the greatest president ever would probably do it (shrugs emoji)
I hope he didn't tell Trump the real victory plan as Trump is now Whats Apping it to old Vlad..
The weekend update from Phillip O'Brian is a review of the year so far and includes a telling map of the front lines on January the 1st 2024 and late September 2024.
All that bloodshed for (almost) nothing.
Israel struck a warehouse in Syria used to store Iranian missiles, which is adjacent to the Russian military Khmeimim airbase. An Iranian aircraft had landed at the airbase about an hour before and it's believed that missiles were unloaded and put into the warehouse. Russian aircraft and Russian and Syrian AD systems attempted to prevent the attack https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-syria-explosion-large-blast-33808361
Iran also fired around 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday, those that landed seem to have been in urban areas and military bases. It's unusual for Iran to risk conflict with Israel, previously they've telegraphed raids in advance and in April missiles struck Israel's Nevatim air base in the Negev desert. This attack on urban areas amounts to an escalation for Israel
If this Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate then it will cause more human tragedy in the middle-east and it will directly affect the availability of munitions for export to Russia from Iran
Ukraine has also attacked Russian facilities in Syria, most recently in September
Considering how important the supply of Shaheed drones has been to the Russian war effort I'm suprised we haven't seen more shenanigans of this variety.
What is the state of Russia-Israel relations at the moment?
Netanyahu and Putin were getting very friendly for a while there but I'm not sure what the most recent developments have been.
If this Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate then it will cause more human tragedy in the middle-east and it will directly affect the availability of munitions for export to Russia from Iran
And it might bring Russia into direct conflict with Israel. What happens when US weapons kill Russians in Syria?
I suspect that Russia's snuggling up to Iran and the fact that Israel need to keep the USA at least somewhat onside may have put that on ice.
What happens when US weapons kill Russians in Syria?
bindun https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham
What happens when US weapons kill Russians in Syria?
Putin will grumble but there's nothing he can do. Israel has the most powerful air force in the region so sending aircraft to Syria to launch an attack on Israel would just mean losing all their aircraft. Israel has submarine launched nuclear ballistic missiles so a nuclear strike is off the table unless Putin wants to see Russian cities incinerated. Launching conventional ballistic missiles against Israel would just result in all Russian forces in Syria being wiped out. Russia just doesn't have the military capacity to fight Israel, neither do Iran or Syria.
And it might bring Russia into direct conflict with Israel.
I'd like to think not. Militarily thols2 has presented a pretty compelling argument
What happens when US weapons kill Russians in Syria?
That's an interesting question, more because it's an argument for Ukraine to be able to use US long-range weapons in Russia. Israel seems to range at will over several countries in the middle-east in US-supplied aircraft
What is the state of Russia-Israel relations at the moment?
It's complex and I don't profess to understand it. Israel has maintained a neutrality on Ukraine-Russia because it suits them to be able to strike targets in Syria without Russia objecting too much. The strike on Iranian missile storage in Syria might add another layer of complexity because it potentially strains supplies for Russia
Escalation in the middle-east this close to the US election isn't a good thing for a Democratic Party win because oil prices are already rising on the possibility. President Biden is pushing for a ceasefire in line with the wishes of the electorate, which some argue isn't what PM Netanyahu wants.
A Trump presidency would suit Netanyahu and President Putin very well https://theconversation.com/how-the-middle-east-conflict-could-influence-the-us-election-and-why-arab-americans-in-swing-states-might-vote-for-trump-240065
Outright war between Israel and Iran isn't good for anyone because Israel will probably go after Iran's fledgling nuclear programme and nobody knows what secrets Russia has exchanged for missiles that might accelerate the programme.
I think that the best case scenario is for Israel to destroy Iran's missile manufacturing facilities because they are a clear threat to Israel, don't touch oil facilities or anything else and de-escalate into ceasefire because the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah have lost their missile supplies. Discuss 🙂
Russia can supply far more troops in the long term.
Perhaps, but it's reliant on people volunteering at the moment, and Putin has avoided the draft as it'll be wildly unpopular. The question isn't really who's got more men available though, long term wars are fought on financial, supply and logistical terms, and Russia can't win those.
I think that the best case scenario is for Israel to destroy Iran’s missile manufacturing facilities because they are a clear threat to Israel, don’t touch oil facilities or anything else and de-escalate into ceasefire because the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah have lost their missile supplies. Discuss
Iran's defense industry is pretty big, and exports have been rocketing (boom tish) theyre big in drones too, I cant see Israel wanting a full scale attacxk on Irans manufacturing right now though, even netenyahu must know it would enflame tensions even more. At some point the IDF will want to limit how many fronts they are fighting a war on at once?
I'm sad to see this thread has slipped to halfway down page 4 of the threads listing. Although I know there hasn't been much (if anything) of strategic significance happening recently. Just ongoing, grinding attrition 🙁
I do think this smacks a little of desperation: "N Korea sends troops to fight with Russia". It's hard to see what Russia gets out of it, the numbers aren't huge in the scheme of things and N. Korean troops don't really have any battle experience to bring to the party. It also risks antagonising South Korea into providing much more support to Ukraine. Which is good news from a Ukrainian perspective as they are one of the world's leading arms producers. North Korea will get some combat experience perhaps, something which no one currently serving there has.
It's a little like Russia getting into bed with Iran - it risks more military or technical support from Israel to Ukraine. Israeli technical expertise could have a huge impact. They have been pretty lukewarm in support for Ukraine up 'til now, I'm sure factors like their large Russian diaspora are at play. But Russia risks changing all that getting all matey with Iran - especially if Israel suspects any help with their nuclear ambitions is flowing the other way?
I’m sure factors like their large Russian diaspora are at play.
Yeah that.
Plus of course Putin, Netanyahu, and Trump, have much in common, both politically and personality wise.
And at least part of the reason for Russia getting chummy with Iran is due to Western sanctions, incl the fact that Iran are masters of circumventing Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia doesn't support sanctions against Russia btw, in fact it has been actively been buying cheap Russian oil.
I would be very surprised if Iran needs any technical support from Russia to develop nuclear weapons, or that Russia would want to help another country develop them.
North Korea will get some combat experience
I think this may be the NK motivation. Plus they keep leverage to some degree over Putin.
I wonder how China feel about Russia making a nuisance neighbour a potentially bigger nuisance.
That link is 5 years old Ernie. I agree about Netanyahu's personality similarities with Putin, but the recent forming of a close relationship by Russia, with Israel's mortal enemy must be raising hackles in Tel Aviv?
I would be very surprised if Iran needs any technical support from Russia to develop nuclear weapons, or that Russia would want to help another country develop them.
I'm not so sure. At the very least, Iran will have asked for something quite significant for all their drone and ballistic missile support. Russia may have said 'no', but maybe not.?
I hope the battle experience they get will be what happens to a poorly equipped force when they face a battle-hardened unit feverishly defending their homeland from an invading tyrannical force
Thing is I think what is going on in the middle east Iran is going to want to build up its reserves of missles and drones, so whilst it obviously sending some Russia's way I can't imagine it will be as much as if things weren't kicking off in their own back yard.
I've been keeping abreast with the news and reports on ukraine, but as said the last few weeks / month have been one much of attrition on both sides nothing of strategic significance for either side that I've seen
That link is 5 years old Ernie.
Yes I was aware. I posted it because it backs your claim of the influence of the Russian vote in Israel. In recent years the largest flow of immigration into Israel has come from Russia, in fact the majority I think.
I suspect most reasonably advanced countries could build nuclear weapons without any help from anyone, it's quite old technology now.
Edit: I hadn't realised that it was quite that high recently:
North Korea will get some combat experience perhaps, something which no one currently serving there has.
It’s a little like Russia getting into bed with Iran – it risks more military or technical support from Israel to Ukraine. Israeli technical expertise could have a huge impact.
I don't see any reason why N.Korean cannot get some combat experience after all it is a war building up to the mother of all wars. Israeli etc can provide all their technical expertise as they wish. There are simply no rules really. The one with the biggest gun wins.
I think this may be the NK motivation. Plus they keep leverage to some degree over Putin.
I wonder how China feel about Russia making a nuisance neighbour a potentially bigger nuisance.
Combat experience etc, yes. China is China and they know the west is gunning for them too.
You see, the West is hell bend on conquering the world and they really have ignored the lessons from history.
The media is making a big deal out of the obvious alliances from the East.
Obvious is obvious and the West know what they have done historically. As one of the 98 year old ex-PM from the far east once said, " ... we traded with China for more than 2,000 years and they never conquered us, but just after two years of the arrival of the Europeans, they conquered us ..."
China leads the way in post WW2 annexation (that’s still held), Russia and Indonesia have had, or are having their moments too.
Yes, at some point in the past history that's the favourite hobby of many nation states, but surprisingly it is still happening but this time or century it comes from the new world that's less than 300 years old.
I suspect most reasonably advanced countries could build nuclear weapons without any help from anyone, it’s quite old technology now.
Yes and no. To produce a device capable of a nuclear yield in a static firing? Yes, if you have access to sufficient enriched uranium. To make it small and robust enough to fit a ballistic delivery system? To develop said delivery system which has the range and shielded guidance to reach your likely adversary without being jammed or intercepted? Not so much.
The list of countries assessed to have achieved nuclear latency is still quite small
Although I know there hasn’t been much (if anything) of strategic significance happening recently. Just ongoing, grinding attrition 🙁
And,let's face it, everything's kinda in a holding pattern until we find out what the hell happpens with a the US elections.
Eveything else politically is a bit of a sideshow.
To develop said delivery system which.....
I thought that ballistic missile technology was one area of expertise that Iran didn't need much help with?
Anyway I don't think Russia is likely to want to help any country develop their nuclear weapons capabilities. Countries which possess nuclear weapons generally don't much like sharing their significant trump card with other nations.
Look at the problem France had developing their own nuclear weapons 50-60 years ago with their repeated and environmentally disastrous nuclear tests in the Pacific. The United States, despite supposedly being a friend and ally, didn't say to France "hang on a minute, let us give you a hand with perfecting the trigger mechanism for your nuclear weapons"!
I suspect most reasonably advanced countries could build nuclear weapons without any help from anyone
Nuclear weapons were only invented once, in the Manhattan Project. All other developments used technology stolen from that. The original Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs weren't really operational weapons, they couldn't be stored and then used at a few minutes notice, and they were enormous things that could only be delivered by very large aircraft. Making a miniturized warhead that can be loaded onto a missile and stored for months and years and then fired at the push of a button is much more challenging than just making a test bomb. Much easier to buy the technology than reinvent everything. ****stan and North Korea would be obvious sources of technology for Iran.
Re
” … we traded with China for more than 2,000 years and they never conquered us, but just after two years of the arrival of the Europeans, they conquered us …”
China had a system of tributes- they would trade with other countries, let them keep sovereignty and offer military assistance if they were attacked by a 3rd party, all in return for payment. Basically a protection racket.
Their treasure fleet sent out in the late 15th century was to find new lands to “trade” with.
I wonder how the prospect of NK troop deaths will be managed in such a tightly controlled society. Are these people going to just disappear never to be mentioned again or will it be a grandiose hurrah fighting against the evil capitalist west?
I suspect the reports of NK troops going to Ukraine are a bit misleading, let's face it, you can't believe anything Putin says. NK is supplying Russia with weapons and I think it's much more likely that NK troops would serve in support roles related to that rather than as front-line troops.
Russia has the capability of advanced nuclear weapons, NKorea has been testing nuclear weapons since 2006 and Iran probably could produce nuclear weapons. The question is whether Russia has thought about helping them, which may be a consideration in the limited use of US-licensed long-range weapons in Russia
If at all possible Iran should be kept in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which ensures International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of their facilities. The difficulty is that Iran withdrew authority from some IAEA inspectors which limited inspections and could withdraw from the NPT altogether
Ukraine has also been embroiled in talk of domestic nuclear weapon production this week. President Zelenskyy's comments provoked a response from President Putin.
The context was that Ukraine would prefer to be in NATO than to have the nuclear weapons that they gave up forty years ago because that's a stronger option for them, "Zelenskyy later clarified his remarks, stating that Ukraine has no plans to develop nuclear weapons and sees NATO as the only alternative to ensuring its security." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/18/7480311/
Ukraine is considering using excess manufacturing capability to export weapons to its allies, which would give them money to buy more domestically-produced weapons, "Ukraine’s defence companies can produce $20 billion of weapons and ammunition per year, but Kyiv can only afford to spend $6 billion, the National Association of Ukrainian Defence Industries said" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-work-proposals-possible-weapons-exports-zelenskiy-says-2024-10-18/
I suspect the reports of NK troops going to Ukraine are a bit misleading, let’s face it, you can’t believe anything Putin says.
Agreed if it was just Putin or Kim Jong Un saying it, but the BBC article says the information is from South Korea's intelligence agency. Apparently 1500 are already there and up to 12000 on the way. Arguably it would be in Seoul's interests to highlight the fact or perhaps exaggerate numbers, but I doubt they would completely make the whole thing up in the way Moscow or Pyongyang might
China had a system of tributes- they would trade with other countries, let them keep sovereignty and offer military assistance if they were attacked by a 3rd party, all in return for payment. Basically a protection racket.
Their treasure fleet sent out in the late 15th century was to find new lands to “trade” with.
Tribute is an old system that was practice in those days in order to gain some "peace" from another powerful ruler or state to avoid war. In those days, tributes only worked when both accepted the practice and generally nothing much happens between states once agreed. However, tributes become imposition when the powerful state started to get greedy or to demand more. That's when war starts. The 21st century "tributes" is to impose an entire system on the weaker states, that way they can control practically all ways of life etc.
...and in a suprise to absolutely noone Russia is actively trying to put its thumb on the scale in the upcoming Moldovan elections.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23kdjxxx1jo
It's depressing how effective their reactionary culture war messaging can be, people basically happy to sell out their country just to Own the Libs.
And... it looks like it might have worked.
hatter
Full Member
And… it looks like it might have worked.
Very disheartening for them. I've grown to hate referendums.
The machinery of democracy is proving far too easy to manipulate. It has to figuratively fight back or the democratic countries of the world have a grim future ahead.
I don't want to derail this thread about Ukraine however: From @hatters link
“I’m not aware of anywhere else where we’ve seen such a brazen and open attempt to corrupt an election,”
Now where else am I hearing that at the moment?
Now where else am I hearing that at the moment?
Very true. Democracy has some real catching up to do if it is to survive the 21st century in a recognizable forum.
Id start with a major clamping down on the Wild West that is social media. Never has there been something that is so patently anti social, unregulated and open to societal changing abuse.
Not sure the Moldova situation is social media, reporting suggests it's all rather old school, suitcases full of cash etc.
hatter
Full Member
Not sure the Moldova situation is social media, reporting suggests it’s all rather old school, suitcases full of cash etc.
Agreed. Russia will still use the old methods that have served it so well but as more of the world is increasingly influenced by unregulated online media, where a younger generation get their "news" from tiktok and now with AI in the mix... The potential for mass manipulation is huge and already embraced by China, Russia and others.
Only a few election cycles back this rang even a story, not it's a threat to every GE or referendum held.
Estonia is one of the few nations that has actively taken the threat seriously, the rest of the Western democracies still have their heads in the sand in the main.
Edit: The referendum in Moldova is near 50/50 at the moment. Boy, how familiar does that sound. Fingers crossed for them. Not sure if the constitutional change referendum needs a larger majority? Ie. 60/40 etc?