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Ukraine seems to be going after Russia's increasing exports of oil and gas.
well gives ru a choice, spread its anti air and troops wider to stop the attacks or accept critical infrastructure is going to get hit. seems the airfields are now better defended so switching to other targets. hopefully it will mean resources that could have been deployed at the front lines are needed to be held back.
Reuters reporting apparent Ukranian shelling of shopping area in Donetsk. Seems pretty far out of character - anybody know more ?
sorry - link https://www.reuters.com/world/eight-killed-after-ukraine-shells-russian-controlled-city-donetsk-mayor-2024-01-21/
“According to Russian installed mayor Alexei Kulemzin……”
Western media really should do a lot better rather than just parroting Russian Propaganda lines.
The pictures published look very staged too. Unbroken glass next to alleged artillery strikes.. No craters….
The pictures published look very staged too. Unbroken glass next to alleged artillery strikes.. No craters….
Something is off, but some of the other pictures look far more accurate. Something went bang by the looks of it, but was it something else?
Very high quality pictures that show very little.
My learned colleagues^^ are doubtless right and it's a con.
The Russian elections in the Donbas region have been derided in the past. In September 2014 and again in September 2022 voting was ignored by the international community, apart from a few pariah states.
The UN’s Rosemary DiCarlo said on 27th September 2022 that they "cannot be called a genuine expression of the popular will".
You'll remember CCTV footage from 2022 of Ukrainian voters being escorted to voting stations and of election officials carrying ballot boxes door-to-door with armed escorts to "help" Ukrainian people cast their vote.
The Russian presidential election will be held in March and will include the Donbas. These elections seem to be a sensitive subject for a country plagued by massive problems largely arising from its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
I'm sure that Russia is now aiming for a veneer of respectability and a reasonable turnout at the polls, so expect a few more incidents blamed on Ukraine
Some interesting speculation around Russia test jamming GPS (from Kaliningrad) that briefly took out GPS for a large part of Poland. I guess it makes sense to develop that capability as it renders a lot drones useless (not sure about FPVs) but it's a bit crazy how wide reaching it appears to be and I guess part of it is Putin goading NATO, especially with a major exercise (Steadfast Defender) about to happen.
Gee, that’s a pity.
Unfortunately, it was carrying Ukrainian POWs.
Hope that's fake news on behalf of Putin and his pals.
Sadly it does look like it was carrying Ukrianian POW's,
Whilst it's tempting to say this was a bit 'convenient' Russia have proven themselves quite capable of offing Ukrianian POWs without having to lose a valuable and hard to replace military air asset in the process.
Problems with infrequent maintenance, parts used beyond their safe alloted flying hours and general strain are also well documented in the Russian airforce so in this instance we should probably take this at face value unless later information says otherwise.
Unfortunately, it was carrying Ukrainian POWs
Russia says it was. Ukraine says it wasn't. Who do you trust more?
Apparently it was flying AWAY from Ukraine.
it would not be surprising if Russia put POW's on board to dissuade people from shooting at it - this could be their test, or "i told you so" moment.
Suits both sides to spin the narrative. Russia has repeatedly lied. If it was a prisioner exchange you would have expected communication to be clear that POWs were on a plane flying in range of anti air.
Human shields is also very possible, and wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
been reading that on twitter - could be a 2 birds with 1 stone moment! IRGC + MIssils +Russi plane down.
It seems we must be patient on this one. I suspect that there will be some additional assets and checking by NATO allies going on, until then it seems rumour and speculation abound.
Russia says it was. Ukraine says it wasn’t. Who do you trust more?
Or alternatively, who is best placed to know who/what was on board a Russian aircraft, Russia as the operator or Ukraine?
I'm a cheerleader for Ukraine in this conflict, but both sides manipulate the information space and use spin when it suits.
Geolocated as flying away from Belgorod, so unlikely to be carrying prisoners ?
From what I've seen of the video footage of it going down the plane was breaking apart before it hit the deck, which suggests it was shot down. It was flying from the Moscow region to Belgorod.
If it was indeed shot down by the Ukrainians then the Russians have a clear motive to tell the world that Ukrainian POW's were on board, Some Ukrainian sources are now saying that it it was carrying Iranian missiles for the front but obviously they have a similarly clear motive to push that story.
A plane going down with that many people onboard will leave body parts strewn across a wide area, so if the POWs' were on onboard you'd expect to see grisly evidence by now on Russian telegram channels. If
If the Russian planned the crash for propaganda you'd think they'd have the 'evidence' ready to go when it happens, the fact we haven't seen pictures of dead bodies with conveniently visible Ukr insignia suggests they were not expecting this plane to go down.
The truth will out... eventually.
Quite a bit of chatter again on twitter that the list of plane passengers due to be transferred has errors.
Some names have already been transferred and ergo, could not have been onboard...
Definitely a wait and see. Russia has of course called a special meeting at the UN...
Apply the usual rule - if Russia are shouting it, then it’s a lie.
THEY invaded & started the war. EVERYTHING in their military is a fair target.
Looks like there were POWs on that flight but Russia were playing dirty.
Russia deliberately risked lives in downed plane - Kyiv
Russia's ministry of defence said Ukrainian PoWs were being flown into Belgorod for a prisoner exchange.
Kyiv said it was not told to ensure safe airspace as on previous occasions.
The Ukrainian military intelligence statement is being seen as a tacit acknowledgement that it shot the plane down, although it stressed it had no reliable information about who was on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68083739
"BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg said it was clear that Russia was using the attack on the plane to try to portray Ukraine as the aggressor"
More grist to the March Donbas election mill.
Fewer than 1000 Ilyushin 76 ever built, around 100 currently in service (maybe. Forty of those will be down for service, repairs and maintenance) and Russia is using one of a limited number to transport PoWs at a ratio of 20-ish to one guard?
The media seems to be taking news from the last week in good faith for some reason, e.g. the shelling in Donbas that killed 27 and now this
Other news from yesterday that is likely to be accurate; another refinery on fire in Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/oil-refinery-southern-russia-ablaze-news-agencies-quote-officials-2024-01-24/
The UK is helping Chancellor Scholtz with his indecision https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-offers-cruise-missile-swap-germany-aid-ukraine-handelsblatt-2024-01-24/
and Russia is using one of a limited number to transport PoWs at a ratio of 20-ish to one guard?
This was my initial thinking when I heard about POWs on board.
Very resource intensive when resources are scarce.
The FT reporting a leak from the EU.
They are going to **** Orban and Hungary's economy up the arse if he doesn't sign off on the Ukraine package.
The FT put it better but if you read it, my deep, nuanced analysis isn't far off.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-68125155
Well I'm happy about that, Slovenia can get in the sea as well... The thin end of the wedge as to why Russia can't be successful in Ukraine...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-far-right-would-lay-claim-neighbouring-region-if-ukraine-loses-war-2024-01-28/
I wonder if Putin is pinning most of his hope on a Trump victory...
I wonder if Putin is pinning most of his hope on a Trump victory…
without a doubt
tbf the GOP are doing an excellent job of helping Ukraine to lose by blocking funding (see also them blocking immigration controls to force a crisis at the border in Texas)
They are going to **** Orban and Hungary’s economy up the arse if he doesn’t sign off on the Ukraine package.
Now the populists are out in Poland Orban really doesn't have any friends left so I was wondering how it would take before the EU decided to start playing hardball, not long it appears.
The 2 big packages for Ukraine are €50 Billion in Europe and $60 Billion in the US, if Orban can be elbowed out of way the European one will be on it's way, then they just need the US one.
I wonder if Putin is pinning most of his hope on a Trump victory…
That is a thoroughly sensible assumption, the Russian and Chinese online disinfo/hacking/troll operations trying to undermine Biden in the run up to November will be on a level we've never seen before.
The 'wah wah, we're not in charge so let's just try and render the country ungovernable just to score political points with our Twitter followers' caucus are already doing Putin's work for him, knowingly or otherwise.
I think Orban will now back down. He might be thrown a few nonsense "concessions" so he can tell his population he "won" but the reality is, this is what the EU can do/ threaten an economy with when it's trying to go Neo Stalin. Good.
It also exposes the Daily Mail BS that the EU are punishing the UK for Brexit. If they wanted to punish us, we would know about it.
Sorry for crossing the streams.
tbf the GOP are doing an excellent job of helping Ukraine to lose by blocking funding
I really struggle with people calling it the "GOP" (Grand Old Party). I know it's an established name etc., but there just isn't anything grand about the party of Trumpism any more. I don't think people like John McCain or Mitt Romney would have made great presidents, but I can at least respect them for staying within the bounds of reality. Guys like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio know they're spouting utter bollocks, but they don't care, the only thing they care about is keeping their comfy DC gigs going.
I really struggle with people calling it the “GOP” (Grand Old Party).
It isn't the GOP as such, it's the MAGA group causing the funding issues. Part of the problem is that they've put the House of Representatives in a situation where MAGA can control the Speaker and without a Speaker you can't have a vote.
The Democrats tied funding for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel together in a $100bn package hoping that two causes dear to Republican hearts would sidestep the border control that is very dear to Donald Trump. "I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people, many from parts unknown, into our once great, but soon to be great again, Country!" Truth Social
Republican fear of their MAGA-master and likely Presidential candidate caused GOP politicians, such as Mitch McConnell (who supports Ukraine) and Speaker Mike Johnson, to tie the funding to immigration issues.
"Also, I have no doubt that our wonderful Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, will only make a deal that is PERFECT ON THE BORDER. Remember, without Strong Borders and Honest Elections, we don’t have a Country!!!" Truth Social
All quotes https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/mitch-mcconnell-border-deal/
The trouble is that it's not just the MAGA group in congress but a vast swathe of their most passionate supporters.
Putin's online outriders have had some success endearing Russia to the far left on the basis of America = Imperialist = Bad, therefore Russia's actions are 'Anti-imperial' (Yes I'm fully aware of the ludicrousness of this stance but.... tankies gonna tank)
They've had massively more success portraying Russia to the American right as some kind of final bastion of White, Christian traditionalism full of manly men and women who know their place. Russian talking points are now so hard-baked into the conversation of Right Wing America that it's hard to tell the Kremlin sockpuppets from the US voters parroting the same positions.
For a fair chunk of them, Russia is not the enemy but a natural ally against the Woke Global Elites that they see trying to destroy America from within using multiculturalism/LGBT rights/socialism/Jewish space lazers.
The fear of this turning this highly energized base against them and being primaried by a Trump-endorsed MAGA zealot if they reach across the aisle is what keeps the rest of the house GOP unable to get around the 12 headbangers in the house.
In short, all that long-term investment in poisoning the well of American public discourse is paying off handsomely.
A snippet that popped into the BBC today from the moment the war became a reality.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-68113443
BBC2 now
Putin Vs The West
Putin vs the West , At War: 1. Invasion: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001ttrx via @bbciplayer