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Reports of another Su-34 being downed.
In short, all that long-term investment in poisoning the well of American public discourse is paying off handsomely.
A way for a country with relatively meagre means to hit hard on the international stage. With Western politicians of all colours happily turning a blind eye while the messaging and, well, "shit stirring" could be used in their own short term interests.
There's a youtuber I like, Perun who does very long, very informative presentations on the Ukraine situation. In the last video of his I watched he commented that the downing of long ranged Russian air assets and drone strikes on long range Russian targets are exactly what pre-F16 shaping operations would look like - forcing the Russians to spread their air defence assets all over Russia itself, as well as preventing Russian AEW assets from operating where they can oberwatch Ukraine.
exactly what pre-F16 shaping operations would look like
I guess the pledged aircraft we got excited about are still not active in Ukraine yet...
he commented that the downing of long ranged Russian air assets and drone strikes on long range Russian targets are exactly what pre-F16 shaping operations would look like
Ukraine does not have F16s yet. If they did, it would not be secret.
There’s a youtuber I like, Perun who does very long, very informative presentations on the Ukraine situation
Came here to mention that exact chap, his content is lengthy and granular but very well researched and the occasional bits of catty humor are wonderful.
His last video was fascinating, the way the Ukrainians have found a way to use the 'defensive' Patriot systems as offensive systems by sneaking them up towards the front line under cover and then suddenly switching them on to ambush Russian air assets that thought they were safe.
This tactic would explain the localised batches of Russian air losses we've seen a few times over the last 6 months.
The pilots are training on F16's now, they are almost certainly going to be active in theatre during 2024. I'm sure we will all know when, Ukraine do like to make a splash when they debut new kit.
The pilots are training on F16’s now, they are almost certainly going to be active in theatre during 2024. I’m sure we will all know when, Ukraine do like to make a splash when they debut new kit.
The Russian black sea fleet should to be worried, particularly the missile carrying cruiser things. I *know* this is not F16 'territory', but I bet that the Ukrainians will use them 'creatively'.
I hope it will make the impact people think. There was similar comments about all the heavy armour being supplied, and apart from one assault that didn't go very well I've hardly heard a thing about all the new kit. Seems it didn't really make much of a difference, either that or ukr is just holding it all in reserve? Or its all being destroyed and our press aren't reporting it
If it had been destroyed Russia would be screaming from the rooftops about it like they did with that one column of Leopards and Bradleys that got caught in the Summer.
The fact they aren't suggests Ukraine are being much more careful with them following some nasty lessons learned at the start of the counter offensive.
If there is any breakthrough and a return to maneuver warfare then I'm sure they're reappear soon enough.
snip...he commented that the downing of long ranged Russian air assets and drone strikes on long range Russian targets are exactly what pre-F16 shaping operations would look like...snip
The general thrust is that what Ukraine is doing is a good thing, both on the ground and in the air. I doubt that it's aimed specifically at a single aircraft type.
Russian airbourne radar and command aircraft can "see" ground armour movements, as well as aircraft. Get rid of Russian assets and you protect your assets and have more of an element of surprise when that time comes.
Russian aircraft launching glide bombs and cruise missiles have to be further away, which allows Ukraine more opportunities to shoot the weapons down and for Russian QC to fail. Russian glide bombs fell in Petropavlovka, Russia earlier this month, 93 miles before reaching the border with Ukraine
His last video was fascinating, the way the Ukrainians have found a way to use the ‘defensive’ Patriot systems as offensive systems by sneaking them up towards the front line under cover and then suddenly switching them on to ambush Russian air assets that thought they were safe.
That's been speculated on for a while. Ukraine is possibly using the German-variant for these attacks because they're mounted on more manoeuvrable trucks than on US-style trailers. You don't need the rest of the gubbins to be close by, park up, data-link, shoot, drive!
The pilots are training on F16’s now, they are almost certainly going to be active in theatre during 2024. I’m sure we will all know when, Ukraine do like to make a splash when they debut new kit.
+1
The Russian black sea fleet should to be worried, particularly the missile carrying cruiser things. I *know* this is not F16 ‘territory’, but I bet that the Ukrainians will use them ‘creatively’.
Anti-ship missiles are certified for some F16 users, but they're relatively close range options and probably not a first resort
If only a drone could take out the Russian bombers in the air before they release their missiles.
There was similar comments about all the heavy armour being supplied, and apart from one assault that didn’t go very well I’ve hardly heard a thing about all the new kit. Seems it didn’t really make much of a difference, either that or ukr is just holding it all in reserve? Or its all being destroyed and our press aren’t reporting it
The lighter Bradleys are being used, and used well. The heavier kit isn't there in sufficient numbers to make a game-changing difference, I think that pledges will only total about 300 or so, actual deliveries are far fewer.
Some of the tanks are lightly-armoured Leopard 1 that aren't really up to modern warfare, which is why the Leopard 2 came along, but they have a good gun and are accurate.
The other thing is how you deploy the "western" tanks. Do you stick them all together in a brigade for ease of logistics, in which case you'll tend to hear more about them, or do you replace the few tanks that Ukraine's infantry battallions have in support and are more spread around.
There are logistics problems with "western" kit, such as the suitability of Ukrainian trucks and bridges to move bigger, heavier tanks, and so T72s are being shipped out to other former Soviet countries, upgraded to T72 Avengers and returned
More problems for Russia, the ground launched small diameter bombs are arriving 👍 its basically a cheap version of HIMARS missiles with 150km range and 1m accuracy.
Various media outlets are reporting that Boeing/Saab should be delivering GLSDB To Ukraine very soon. From memory this is within the projected timeline
These are an amalgam of existing US rockets and bombs. The base rockets and the base bombs are already held in large numbers
https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb
Crossed with FRC
More problems for Russia, the ground launched small diameter bombs are arriving 👍 its basically a cheap version of HIMARS missiles with 150km range and 1m accuracy.
do they have same GPS jamming issues as HIMARS?
One fly in the ointment is that there's a fuss over Indian 155mm shells being used by Ukraine. It seems that some naughty third-party ordered a stack and passed them on in violation of licensing.
Russia is obviously peed-off that its BRICS ally is supplying kit to Ukraine and India is now investigating who they were sold to. This is one area where social media and poor information security causes a problem.
Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons but Russia is struggling to supply spares now because of its ill-advised invasion of Ukraine. India is moving away from Russian weapons, having waited 12 months for some parts, and is negotiating agreements with the US.
India imports large quantities of cheap Russian oil, but won't pay in $$ because of sanctions, which has led to 14 Russian oil tankers sitting waiting to unload 10mn barrels for weeks. I don't know if they're still sitting at sea.
This is doubtless making things worse for relations at a time when India needs Russian weapon spares for possibly two more decades. India's other problem is that they need to keep Russia onside to ameliorate problems with China over border disputes, which have led to fatalities as recently as 2022
It does mean less Russian income, now, and in the future
Also read last night that ukraine are protyping land based drones to cover dangerous activities such as mine clearance or trench breaching.
I had images of ed209 or 40k dreadnoughts actually being 'real'
They'll have to be cheap though as I can't imagine them lasting 5 minutes in the real world. Bascially a mobile remote controlled machine gun
RE Russian and India - is this not a really good opportunity for America / EU / etc to dive in and offer an alternative path, away from dealing with Russia?
India's been moving towards domestic production for a while now, I'd expect they'll prioritise growing their domestic industry at the expense of imports
We can but hope.
However, one of Russia’s main military strengths has been the comparatively vast number of people it can conscript. As Stalin said, quantity has a quality all of its own.
I really hope that Ukraine can use new capabilities, not least air assets, and lessons learned from last year, to really hit them hard. I suspect getting the money/munitions from the US will be key to that and I’m not holding my breath for that happening anytime soon..
I’ve no doubt that it’s way more nuanced than this
I get it - having been born and lived in India, parents who worked there half their life, family and friends still there....
However, one of Russia’s main military strengths has been the comparatively vast number of people it can conscript. As Stalin said, quantity has a quality all of its own.
Which is why, grim though it may be for the defenders, pitched battles such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka where Ukrainian defenders get to inflict massive, disproportionate losses on the Russian attackers for weeks at a time may end up being decisive in the long run
The professional army that Russia started the war with is largely gone, Wagner is gone, Russia's reserves are vast but it's burning through them incredibly quickly.
The first conscripts that Russia called up have now been away from home for over a year, many without any leave back home, their families are starting to protest and make their voices heard.
History suggests that Russia will look utterly monolithic and implacable, until it suddenly isn't.
The first conscripts that Russia called up have now been
away from homedead for over a year,
FTFY
The Ukrainian dead is also going to number in the 100,000+ mark. Politics of who/why are one thing, but these are real people
🙁
And let's not forget the scars mentally and physically on so many more who have fought, or been injured, or been held captive.
FTFY
That's something I didn't want to speculate about as I don't have any reliable data and I try not to talk out of my arse on this thread.
But it does appear that Russia has not been telling families that thier conscripted men have died, they just 'stop hearing from them' and the authorities stonewall the relatives.
I guess they're hoping they can finish the war before the truth dawns on hundreds of thousands of Russian families.
If this comes out all at once then the backlash could be what brings down the Russian homefront.
I am very much speculating though.
Balbek airbase in Crimea struck yesterday - 3 more jets lost to Russia, 2xSU27 and an SU30.
But it does appear that Russia has not been telling families that thier conscripted men have died, they just ‘stop hearing from them’ and the authorities stonewall the relatives.
I guess they’re hoping they can finish the war before the truth dawns on hundreds of thousands of Russian families.
If they're confirmed dead, the family get a free Lada or something. If they're missing, the family gets nothing.
Exactly - the games being played over what compensations for injury and death, apparently the cost of which is borne by regional governments (lets not forget Russia has many political 'creations' of "autonomous regions" and more) and they do not have the resources or backing of Moscow financially...
You also have to wonder how many families have not been told about their loved one's death because the official in charge of telling them has pocketed the pay-out and ensured that they just stay 'missing' for ever more.
As is always the case with these scandals, it will take ages to come out and then, if it does break out it'll break out all at once.
Sorry for the double post but this is big news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971
Looks like Orban was forced to back down and credit where credit's due, Germany have worked hard to make this happen and whilst they were initially slow to get on board with supporting Ukraine they've really stepped up in the last year which has been crucial as the USA has got less reliable.
Oh dear. Another Russian ship sunk.
Merely bravely blocking the way to protect the rest of the fleet from sea-born drones.
However, one of Russia’s main military strengths has been the comparatively vast number of people it can conscript. As Stalin said, quantity has a quality all of its own.
Conscription is something that Russia is used to. In Spring and in Autumn Russians, generally aged between 18 and 27, serve for twelve months. Russia invaded Crimea and then the Donbas ten years ago this Spring and few in either Russia or the world have been too concerned.
Had Russia given up in the first six months of 2022 and announced that it had achieved its goals in Ukraine and retreated to its pre-2022 lines then the Russian population would have thanked President Putin and got on with life.
Mobilisation will be President Putin's eventual undoing because two things happened when it was announced in September 2022; conscripts were sent to war before they were adequately trained and a mobilisation of trained reserves and men off the street was underway. In response 260,000 men were estimated to be leaving Russia and the queue at the Georgian border was visible from space https://time.com/6217860/russia-exodus-georgia-tensions/
Part of the reason for the Russian tactical nuclear threat was that conventional military doctrine is that nukes are an option if you are overwhelmed with nowhere to go. Ukraine's successful Autumn/Winter 2022 counter-offensive took vast swathes of territory back and although Russia had options the declared mobilisation meant that retreat was now politically unacceptable.
Russia has poorly-trained, ill-equipped troops in Ukraine with a morale problem and it's now much more difficult to portray the illusion of success in Ukraine to ordinary Russians at home. Reality is starting to bite, which is why the state is clamping down harder and harder on its citizens.
Further mobilisation is also politically unacceptable and that left the hope that the passage of time and reduced political will in the "west" will reduce support for Ukraine, which is where we are now. Ukraine can succeed if that support is given and given quickly
Oh dear. Another Russian ship sunk.
that is pretty conclusively sunk too, russia will struggle to say its just lightly damaged
Drones are shaking everything up, Russia looking very vulnerable at sea, what counter do they realistically have to this?
Asking for my Brother in law whos ship is currently shooting down houthi drones!
Drones are shaking everything up
Thing is that drones aren't really new, it's just that guidance systems are much more effective now. Torpedoes are just a form of underwater drone, so are cruise missiles, it's just that modern technology has made them cheap and deadly.
and this is from a couple of days ago
https://publish.twitter.com/?url=https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1752815572645978287#
I liked the way subsequent drones were sent into the hole already in the side of the ship to inflict max damage,
And also, grimly, to kill the repair crews who would have been in there trying to stem the damage and keep her afloat.
War is nasty.
Its been said before but for a country with no discernible navy they are given the russian navy a proper kicking