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^^ Ah! I did wonder at the strangely cuddly name, The Wildberries Warehouse... I assumed it to be current Russian speak for a napalm store or such! 😑
Perhaps they didn’t bribe the right oligarch? Or didn’t pay protection?
Apparently some very expensive Russian AWACS-type airplane has possibly been converted into a submarine over the Azov sea. Looking at the map, that's a *long* way from the border.
The big warehouse in St Petersburg, apparently Russian police had raided it multiple times recently looking for illegal workers to round up for conscription. Not sure whether that was linked to the fire.
Apparently some very expensive Russian AWACS-type airplane has possibly been converted into a submarine over the Azov sea
Unverified at the moment - no wreckage or similar, but apparently one SOS call has been recorded and one visually seen to go down.
Very helpful if true.
looks like the expensive awacs plane was lost and the not quite as expensive IL22 made it back, just
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746871422604185947?t=XMzQv1T-bjd5QCvmJwmqZA&s=19
So if they were hit, what weapon does ukr have that can take out planes from such a distance? Or did they fly a high risk sortie right over Ru lines to get to close to them?
looks like the expensive awacs plane was lost
Awkward considering they dont have many of them and their shiny new replacements got placed on hold since they need western parts.
Did I see ukr suggesting they had a new long range weapon the other day. Is there a western ground to air or air to air missile with this sort of range.
It was reported yesterday that Russia has now instituted a series of scheduled power cuts that will last until April for 12 hours at a time. The temperature was -17C in Moscow this morning and -13C in St. Petersburg
Wonder if there an element of 'forcing' people to conscript to avoid dying in their homes.
And turned heating off in prisons to get inmates to sign up for the war
https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1746883691656204471
theory atm seems to be they put a patriot close to the front and yeeted it at max range
wow incredible it scored 2 hits. some lovely data for the US boffins no doubt.
if true its not just the loss that is the problem, the fact that any other replacement could also be at risk.
bit like nullifying some of the impact of the black sea fleet by making them operate much further away from the front lines
theory atm seems to be they put a patriot close to the front and yeeted it at max range
I wonder if the wet rag/RPG theory can work on something bigger and more sophisticated? 😂
The Sea of Azov is internationally recognised as shared between Ukraine and Russia, although it's under Russian control ATM. This matters because if it's a Patriot missile then it's being used under the US remit to stay within Ukraine.
It's ironic because the Beriev A-50 is a surveillance plane and the Ilyushin Il-22 is an airborne command post and between them should have spotted the attack coming. That they didn't is significant, it also denies the Sea of Azov for future operations. Russia anecdotally tends to launch its cruise missiles over water in case of failure on launch and the Sea of Azov is one such site.
Combined with other recent changes of tactic by Ukrainian forces, e.g. the downing of three Sukhoi SU34 before Christmas, Russia's long-range missile and glide bomb attacks are being forced back and potentially out of useful range.
The effect of pushing most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet away from Crimea and now denying the Sea of Azov is a massive gain for Ukraine.
For all of the hand-wringing by western media and politicians about the counter-offensive by Ukraine, I'd say Ukraine is doing pretty well. Russia on the other hand has gained <1% of Ukraine during 2023 despite some big offensives and lost most of their armoured vehicles, significant ships, aircraft and troop numbers
My personal feeling is that an uplift in western supplies now would be a game-changer
It’s ironic because the Beriev A-50 is a surveillance plane and the Ilyushin Il-22 is an airborne command post and between them should have spotted the attack coming.
is it possible they did but couldnt do anything about it?
There is that, but airborne radar systems can "see" hundreds of miles, less for ground targets but still outranging a Patriot battery.
There are others here with much more knowledge of this sort of stuff, it could even be SF with Stingers standing up in the shallowest sea in the world 🙂
AWACS should be operating far enough back to be out of missile range. If it needed to be further forward it’s due to poor performance of Russian kit or just bad ops planning. It might have some ECM and flares, but nothing that will defeat a patriot, NASAMS OR IRIS-T.
Im tending towards either an SF operative or Sea Drone launched Manpad though with the range issues.
Or the Russians always flying the same route, which would ordinarily be out of patriot range. But because they fly the same route it means that the Ukrainians know where they will be in "x" minutes, allowing them to launch patriots to be in that spot at the right time, right at the extreme edge of their range. Because maths.
Im tending towards either an SF operative or Sea Drone launched Manpad though with the range issues.
I would have thought they would be flying way too high for those in order to be useful in observing/relaying.
Plus the damage to the plane which return is rather significant.
I suppose it could have always been friendly fire as Ru does have track record, though seems unlikely given ukr claiming the attacks. Does anyone have the capability to confuse and spoof plane profiles so Ru batteries think friendlies are the enemy? Maybe too far fetched, but given the reliance on electronics if you could that would make it extremely difficult to operate.
My speculation is that NATO were monitoring Russian flights, noticed the Russians were flying predictable routes and Ukraine put an SAM launcher onto a fishing boat or something and snuck it close enough to be within range. The AWACS has a huge radar, so a missile with passive radar homing might have been able to home in on that without the Ukrainians needing to turn on a radar that would warn the Russians they were being targeted. Is it possible for an anti-radar missile to target an aircraft rather than a ground target?
Everything is possible - and Ukraine has the creativity and skills to have created some unique weapons mounts and things. Remember the 'you cannot put a Nato missile on a Russian plane?' - which they then did within a few months.
I would also assume that the support from NATO will be as you describe - and can imagine that some NATO / suppliers have thought about how you bring these planes down in the last two years should the opportunity arise.
Read on a few sites its claiming to be friendly fire to 'reassure' Ru pilots that ukr doesn't have the capability to knock them out over the Azov sea(!)
Don't worry lads, if you get taken out, it'll be by one of your own?!?!
Yeah, the truth has to be pretty horrendous when the best propaganda line you can think of is is 'we just shot down our own shiny mega bucks AWACS asset'
I’d say it’s perfectly possible they’ve worked out a way to launch a HARM into the area where they expect the AWACS to be, and it lock on to its signature. One of the restrictions on Patriot range is the radar horizon, which is far greater for an air launched missile. <br /><br />
When I was studying Air Warfare principles way back when, that generation of ARM were loitering munitions, floating on a parachute passively waiting for a radar signature to lock on to before gliding on to it.
I've seen speculation that it was a FrankenSAM. S300 radar but Patroit missiles. This would allow them to position the launcher as close as they dare to the Russian lines without risking the Patroit radar. That would (just) have the range required and from the A-50 POV it's an S300 until it's too late...
is this the speculation?
is this the speculation?
A50 would be pretty defenceless against most modern missiles. Slow and unmanouvreable. Its main form of defence is putting distance between itself and the enemy.<br /><br />
The aircraft that was thinking it was a S300 was an F34.
What's an F34 mate?
Ah, thanks. 👍
Sorry - yep Su34
^^ That’s good news. Hopefully finally some Taurus from Germany….
I was trying to get on Ads-B today but it wouldn't load to see th map. Anyone else with this issue...?
For those interested in those radar planes.
done up there >>>>
good link though, interesting the ingenuity of ukr
And there doesn't seem to be much evidence of hissy fit retaliation like before.
Cross fingers, touch wood.
I wonder how much of it was planned, and how much of it was a case of taking out the radar is a useful objective in it's own rights, then sat round the breakfast table the next morning looking at the radar screen and thinking "that can't be, they wouldn't be that stupid, quick pass me the PAC would you ......"