In remarks to European ambassadors in a briefing on Wednesday, Benny Gantz said:
Israel supports and stands with Ukraine, Nato and the west.
This being said, I would like to emphasise that Israel will not deliver weapon systems to Ukraine due to a variety of operational considerations.
In case anyone is still wondering how reliable our “strategic partner in the Middle East” is.
Evacuation of Kherson
Sadly my guess is a combination of human shields and "if I can't have the land, I'll have the people".
But yes, there's a chance he will do something big and excuse it because "non-one was hurt, we evacuated before". Maybe even a big false flag attempt?
Vitally Kim, Governor of Mykolaiv Oblast said in a video I posted a few pages back, that RF were already digging artillery emplacements ranged on Kherson. Hopefully they bring up all the new GMLRS & take them out.
Putin has declared martial law in the four recently annexed territories
Putin has declared martial law in the four recently annexed territories
Does that actually make any difference?
^^ A bit more to it than that though. From the Beeb:
As part of the decree, President Putin announced three additional levels of heightened security inside Russia.
The highest level applies to Russia-annexed Crimea and other areas near the border with Ukraine, such as the regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Krasnodar.
The dam is 30m high. A breach, and the resultant drop in water, may cause problems regarding the accessibility of cooling water for the ZNPP which is situated on the shore of the lake.
Pondering if this is the precedent to the US mid terms, the Iranian missiles arriving and then being operational and an attempt to completely flatten Kherson all happening at the same time.
I'm assuming the missiles sent by Iran that they haven't sent, will be tracked every metre of their journey via satellite.
And no, I'm not into conspiracy theories and thank goodness Ben Wallace is the only grownup in the Govt at the moment.
I don't think we actually have a government at the moment.
Oooh, whats that loud bang? Is it a political train wreck coming off the rails and sliding into the buffers, whilst upside-down and on fire?
C4 news, mid turmoil had a sensible report from the d Dnepro river bank giving scale to the mass of water held back. Its alot.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582794925304729601
The Russian talking heads getting more and more uncertain and concerned. The war correspondent looks ready to break into tears at any moment. Though that didn't stop him from lying through his teeth repeatedly. Shameless.
The anchor Olga Skabeeva strays dangerously close to heresy. She might want to avoid the combo of tall buildings and windows for a while.
On a more serious note, the war reporter mentions fears tye UA will use chemical weapons. In the best tradition of Russia calling out the opposition for something it intends to do itself, that is a bit concerning
Is this Russian action? Maybe a opening salvo. The link to the Faroes was broken last week too...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-63326102
Russia claiming an SU-27 releasing a missile whilst shadowing an RAF Rivet Joint was a technical malfunction
Apparently we are in agreement it was a malfunction but how much of that is playing the incident down
So their planes accidentally fire missiles and accidentally crash in to buildings? They're a bit shit at making war planes aren't they.
If, as now reported, Iranian Revolutionary Guards are now "on the ground" in Crimea, is there now a risk of escalation? I can see Ukraine being very keen to interrupt the supply and use of these weapons, but can't see how they can without a significant risk of the conflict widening.
but can’t see how they can without a significant risk of the conflict widening
I had been wondering this more and more in the last few days – how much further will Putin (and his allies) escalate and push at conventional rules of warfare before NATO has no option other than becoming directly involved? Would it be the destruction of the hydo-electric facility?
NATO involvement? Nothing short of nuclear/chemical/biological.
So are the sudden and mysterious damage to not one, but two of shetlands main comms cables a surprising accident or another warning shot...
The official line is fishing nets snagging the line. I kinda work in the industry. Just had another huge cyber security push to all staff as well.
I've seen the official line...but both connections....at the same time when they are in different locations. mighty unlucky that!
I’ve seen the official line…but both connections….at the same time when they are in different locations. mighty unlucky that!
I'll be honest, after the sabotage of the Baltic pipeline, I'm somewhat sceptical that both Shetland connections were lost like that.
I’ve seen the official line…but both connections….at the same time when they are in different locations. mighty unlucky that!
I had the same thoughts.
Mr_Wallace's trip to 'merica. I was wondering if that is pipeline / cable related. It's been in international or NATO member waters. There are some serious secret issues - see the Swedes not wanting to tell the Germans something about it. I'm wondering if Russia may be missing a sub shortly.
US and Russian defence ministers have had their first direct call since May today...
Talking is better than not talking.
"we know it was you...."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/putin-has-found-new-weapon-mass-destruction/
If you stop the page loading then it'll let you read the whole thing.
I know it's the telegraph but it looks pretty likely they're going to blow the dam. They're going to kill 1000's of people in their occupied territories to try and slow down the Ukrainian advance even though they're supposedly 'Russian citizens'.
They're monsters.
"depriving the whole of southern Ukraine of its water supply".
Including Crimea. Draw your own conclusions.
Hope it will be like the bridge at Remagan. The Russian army will have mined the bridge with blocks of plastercine as someone in the supply chain sold all the plastic explosive to Belarus
Then when the plunger is pressed just the ignitors go pfft and tge sherman tanks can roll across unopposed
Im sorry but if the dam gets destroyed by Russian hands with a catastrophic loss of life Nato must step in. For far to long Putin has rattled and dodged his illigal occupation of soverign soil for his own ends.Its time the moral highground is taken, because if the Western world doesnt act fast everyones eyes will be looking to the South China seas very shortly.
Firstly thanks to all who have updated this thread- I’ve followed it for a long time without adding much to the discussion.
In response to the above- haven’t NATO made it clear that they will only become directly involved if Russia use chemical/bio/nuclear weapons? I agree blowing the dam would be a massive move, but it’s hard to see how NATO respond in a limited way?
If the US/UK/NATO members start firing missiles into Russia, or at Russian targets in Ukraine then that’s just going to give Vlad carte blanche to sling whatever munitions he has across Europe Willy nilly isn’t it?
I agree, it's gonna be either all in or carry on as we are
There's no way they'll cut off Crimeas water supply. That would be cataclysmic for Russia (well, the crimeans).
If Russia blows the dam with large loss of civilian life, NATO and allies can respond by providing longer range missiles, more main battle tanks, training on F16s and commitment to supply when training complete, night vision equipment etc. It's an effective response whilst still being like the USA in WW2 with lease lend. in WW2 until Pearl Harbour the USA was not a combatant but provided masses of aid.
I think blowing the dam is a way for Russia to avoid escalating to a nuke and therefore avoid the response from US/NATO.
If NATO does get involved, Russia can't even put up a good fight in Ukraine. How are they going to deal with fighting multiple countries?
If it ends up in a world war of NATO Vs Russia and its allies then NATO would wipe the floor with them as long as everyone stuck to conventional warfare.
Russia can only lose but they can cause a huge loss of life before they pack it in.
If you take nukes of the table completely, like they don't even exist, then this war wouldn't even have happened.
It's terrifying seeing Poland and Finland (amongst others) stocking up anti rad tablets.
The problem with Crimea is that while it's useful to Russia (they leased Sevastopol until 2042) it isn't essential.
It would be a massive symbolic loss of an illegally annexed region that has been held since 2014 and while Russia wouldn't want to destroy water supplies, they could. That would be desperate and would lead to a full retreat from Ukraine because they couldn't practically restore adequate water
Surovikin will withdraw to a defensive line in the Kherson Oblast that can be supplied/retreated from without needing to cross the Dnieper in the hope of defending Crimea and preserving what heavy kit he has left. The dam will be an overt threat to advancing Ukrainian troops
Throughout this war it's shown the world that the red army would not have been much of a match for Captain Mainwaring, but where is their navy particularly the missile subs?
The problem with Crimea is that while it’s useful to Russia (they leased Sevastopol until 2042) it isn’t essential.
If they want a serious navy then it is essential.
The problem with Crimea is that while it’s useful to Russia (they leased Sevastopol until 2042) it isn’t essential.
It's their prize possession on the Black Sea. If they hang onto it they have total control over the Ukraine coast and ports and access to the Med. If they lose Ukraine they lose Sevastopol too since Putin terminated the lease agreement following the 2014 annexation. They would need to move the Black Sea fleet to mainland Russia.
In response to the above- haven’t NATO made it clear that they will only become directly involved if Russia use chemical/bio/nuclear weapons? I agree blowing the dam would be a massive move, but it’s hard to see how NATO respond in a limited way?
I think NATO have made it clear that they aren't getting involved, but have left the question of WMDs ambiguous. This is deliberate, they have apparently been sending backchannel signals to Russia that using WMDs would be considered a serious violation, but they leave it up to the imagination what the actual response would be. My guess is that it would involve supply of modern air defense systems, plus permission for Ukraine to use longer range HIMARS rockets against military targets inside Russia, but the point of the ambiguity is that Russia is left uncertain.
As far as Crimea goes, the Sevastopol naval base is pretty much useless if Ukraine have long-range precision guided weapons based south of Odessa. If Ukraine can evict Russian forces from southern Ukraine, then the Sea of Azov will be within reach of Ukrainian missiles too, so Crimea will be very difficult to resupply by sea. Ukraine may decide not to actually invade it, just cut off the Russian military there from resupply and harass them with missile and special forces attacks until they either leave or are rendered ineffective. If the Russian civilians flee, then Ukraine may be able to organize a local "uprising" of Little Green Men who deny being Ukrainian military and then organize a referendum on whether Crimea should be Ukrainian or Russian. With the Russian sympathizers gone, only pro-Ukrainian voters will be left to vote.
If they want a serious navy then it is essential
There's the problem 🙂 The Black Sea fleet is minus one flagship after a taking on a nation not known for its naval prowess
It’s their prize possession on the Black Sea
It's President Putin's prize possession...
If they hang onto it they have total control over the Ukraine coast and ports and access to the Med.
And Ukraine has control of their water supply. The myth of Russian superiority is busted and the threat to Ukraine if Crimean taps were turned off has somewhat receded.
If they lose Ukraine they lose Sevastopol too since Putin terminated the lease agreement following the 2014 annexation. They would need to move the Black Sea fleet to mainland Russia
They have a Black Sea warm water port and naval base at Novorossiysk, 100 nautical miles (straight line) away, which was reopened after the Soviet Union fell apart. They lost Sevastopol to Ukraine, hence the lease, but it isn't essential and modern weapons make ships extremely vulnerable in enclosed spaces and can be launched from land, sea and sub-sea at targets hundreds of miles away at high subsonic/supersonic speeds.
Russia set its Med Squadron up in 2013, which chimes with the ongoing civil war in Syria, and is more about unnecessary expansionism than protecting Russia. Access to the Med is available from Novorossiysk as it would be from Sevastopol
President Zelenskiy's problems with Russian sympathisers are becoming visible and will continue long after the war is over
Vyacheslav Boguslaev, former MP, Hero of Ukraine and chief engineer of the Motor Sich company in Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhzhia has been arrested. He's suspected of supplying aicraft parts to Russia
Vyacheslav Boguslaev, former MP,
Former Pro-Russian MP.
And another Russian jet crashes. Is there more to it, or par for the course and the current focus on Russia amplifies such occurrences?
