Interesting article from a former Russia diplomat.
Yes, something that has been stated many times on this thread.
I don’t know about the capability of modern radar against small UAVs,
I would be genuinely surprised if any radar that the Ukrainians have that would pick these up. On an individual level of course being hit by one of these is going to be horrific, on an strategic level, I don't know of any bombing campaign that has by itself has met its aim to either cause surrender, or destabilise a government, or people
I’ve been watching TraumaZone
I'm four episodes in, it's genuinely fascinating, the things that strike me in no particular order. 1. How much of a shit hole it is. 2. the obvious levels of corruption, 3. How drunk everyone clearly is all the time. 4. How blatantly terrible everything is from houses to working conditions in factories 5. The propaganda that was fed us all to fear these poor folk.
Acoustic tracking is a thing going back to WW1 - see Sound Mirrors
Observer Corp type manual tracking worked for large formations of aircraft - I don't see it working against individual drones. It also needed the RAF to have air superiority over the UK - not true for large parts of Ukraine.
Automated acoustic tracking sounds doable - see paper here
The Ukrainians have done great work building decentralised artillery control systems, I'm sure they could build an acoustic tracking system for the "mopeds". Once that's done, shooting them down becomes a simpler problem. I suspect drone jammers will eventually become the main way of taking them down rather than MANPADs, small arms or anti-aircraft guns - there's an asymmetry in cost ($120k for a Stinger vs $20k for a Shahed)
The propaganda that was fed us all to fear these poor folk.
That show could itself be propaganda.. just saying.
I thought the shithead drone was autonomous. Ie. Pre programed to a gps co ordinate and left to its own devices once airborne
I think on the tele program Warship, which had tv crew on a T42 destroyer they could track a football at 10 miles with their radar.
Which is useless for Ukraine, but its a guide to technology. I guess its easier over water as its more or less flat.
Gulf war1 was a truly successful bombing campaign for the first 3 days. Tomahawk cruise missiles taking out alot of specific targets accurately and successfully to neutralize Iraq armed forces
I think the reality of tracking radar and the what the spec says it can do, are often miles apart. Rough seas for instance will screw up pretty much every ships radar so that sea skimming missiles are essentially all but invisible. the type 42 in the Falklands suffered this sort of issues launching it's own Sea Dart anti aircraft missiles - At low level rough sea states, or land in the distance, or fast moving low level (all within spec) just confused it. Systems will be optimised to look for certain things within certain envelopes (fast/high flying/large and so on) a small plastic drone flying below 200ft at under 100mph is probably all but invisible to a radar optimised to look for fast jets and helicopters
Possibly dumb question but... what is the point of shooting those drones down once they are over a populated area given that the ones that are not shot down don't seem to be particularly good at hitting strategic targets. If they're not going to hit their intended target but hit something random instead and you shoot it down and it hits something else random, hasn't that just wasted a bullet?
Not a dumb question, you'd aim to shoot them down over farmland. Hence the number of V1s that crashed where I grew up in Kent
The Iranian Shahed 136 (we'll call it G2 for RU Geran-2) is termed a "loitering munition" drone, according to the Oryx handbook.
It's one of dozens of Iranian drones of myriad types.
Shahed translates as "witness," Geran is the RU for "geranium." 2/
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) October 17, 2022
Error
Warship was on a T45 destroyer, totally different to a T42 with 30years of improvements.
Well, 37 out of 43 drones were shot down yesterday (allegedly) - so it looks like they’re doing a decent job of intercepting them already 👍
Well, 37 out of 43 drones were shot down yesterday (allegedly) – so it looks like they’re doing a decent job of intercepting them already
However they are still causing significant disruption...
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said on Twitter that “since 10 October, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country”.
Destruction of power stations could have a serious effect on the Ukrainian war effort, particularly comms and manufacturing. It will be hard on their own citizens in the occupied areas, but I hope that are managing to black them out.
I think over 70% of V1 rockets were intercepted. It’s not really the point though, only a few need to get through to terrorise.
They are suffering a similar problem that Germany had in 1944 and 45.
Due to the Allied air offensive they had spend a huge amount of their resource on air defence. I have seen claims of as much as 40% of their war production. This obviously led to shortages of other stuff on the fronts.
The Shahed-136 range is pretty crazy - I'm not sure NATO has anything with similar capability (as they have focused more on battlefield tactical versions)? If they do then maybe they should supply a few to Ukraine so they can lob some at critical infrastructure within Russia to see if they get the message.
If they do then maybe they should supply a few to Ukraine so they can lob some at critical infrastructure within Russia to see if they get the message.
The long range missiles for HIMAR/M270 would make a few more places vulnerable and hit a lot harder.
Can anything be done to stop the supply of the drones from Iran? presume they have to be shipped to Russia? Via turkey? Rather than try to work out how to shoot them down, work out how to stop them getting into Ru hands in the first place?
Where are they being launched from? Inside Russia or from occupied territory? There must be a warehouse full of the things somewhere even if they don't need a dedicated launch site.
Can anything be done to stop the supply of the drones from Iran? presume they have to be shipped to Russia? Via turkey? Rather than try to work out how to shoot them down, work out how to stop them getting into Ru hands in the first place?
They're airfreighted in.
Another of Putin's henchmen has an unfortunate accident. Punished for incompetence or a move against the regime?
THE PURGE: LTCOL Roman Malyk, placed in charge of Putin's botched mobilization effort, has been found dead at his residence at Primorsky, in RU’s far east. A police investigation has been launched, and a verdict of “suicide" has not been ruled out.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 17, 2022
Special window operation
The drones are apparently being launched off flatbed trucks in Belarusian territories.
And Iran is supplying training in Belarus according to Ukraine.
In that case a nice line of anti-aircraft defences in Northern Ukraine might help. It would obviously be sad if any misses then fell over the boarder, but I guess that's life (and sadly also death)
I would be no good at diplomacy 🙁
Thats 600 aa batteries, spaced 1 mile apart along the Ukr - Belorussia border.
That's not really viable, and ypu you could increase the gap but as the drones basically fly nap of the earth they could simply fly through the gap.
Lots of chatter about big offensive going on in Kherson right now. Perhaps a scale up of what has already been happening. Given credence by announcement of the 'evacuation' of citizens to the left bank.
Surovikin meanwhile has done a highly charged interview (read practically comatose) in which he described the situation in Kherson as tense.
Surovikin a short while ago..
I'm just wondering what Russia would (or could) do if, say, hypothetically there was a middle of the night cruise missile strike against some Drone and Missile factories that are in another country?
Cuts one of Putins few external weapons supplies in such a way that they can't directly retaliate for. Buys Ukraine some time. Quite a few countries in the Gul...er, region, would be publicly (or privately) delighted. Big question would be whether the Ira...er the target countries regime would be further weakened or strengthened/emboldened by such an event.
Sounds like a bit of a Maverick move. Not sure who would do it though as the friendly faces in the region won't want to annoy Russia.
Attacking someone who is supplying weapons to one side in the war puts us in a pretty vulnerable position.....
Who dares, maybe, wins
Any idea why Ben Wallace was in Washington on an urgent visit?
We'll find out.
The NATO/ china thing is concerning though. News broke the same day eh?
Can we not just nuke Moscow and St.Petersurg? turn it into glass? that would teach them a lesson.
gofasterstripes
Free Member
We’ll find out.The NATO/ china thing is concerning though. News broke the same day eh?
What NATO/China thing mate? Been out of the loop today and can't find anything on the Beeb/ CNN sites?
Jens Stoltenberg has said that NATO allies will soon be supplying hundreds of "drone jammers"
Ukraine has asked Israel for their expertise and kit as well
Russia has denied that the drones are Iranian, but those that have been examined have Iranian parts.
Two-fold denial from Russia to avoid supply being cut off and to maintain the illusion of their superior arms industry?
From the same article, NATO is holding its annual nuclear preparedness exercise next week, which has been planned for some time. Russia holds its annual nuclear drills around the same time
Lots of "McCarthy warns no more 'blank check to Ukraine' if GOP captures House" headlines at the moment.
This worries me a bit, as GOP gaining a majority in the House is a likely scenario. He's not against helping Ukraine per se, but promises much more scrutiny. This will be a popular policy with the MAGA voters, who can't see why they are spending so much to help some random country when their petrol prices are a disgrace!
These are the same voters who were disgusted at a (admittedly badly thought out) withdrawl from Afghanistan.
What NATO/China thing mate?
Ex-RAF and NATO pilots are being recruited by the PLAAF to train their pilots.That, I think.
NATO is holding its annual nuclear preparedness exercise next week, which has been planned for some time. Russia holds its annual nuclear drills around the same time
This and Ben Wallace emergency trip to the ‘states has me nervous. It’ll only take one small mistake or misunderstanding amongst the posturing…
Can we not just nuke Moscow and St.Petersurg? turn it into glass? that would teach them a lesson.
I know you're joking but this is a horrific thing to say and in very poor taste.
Everything Russia blames Ukraine for and shouts about, is usually what they are doing themselves (Nazis, genocide, attacking civilians, the latest Kupyansk video). With that in mind I think the Russians are about to blow the Nova Kakhovka dam.
Also, all the Russian chatter to evacuate civilians from Kherson because Ukraine are about to start shelling them…………..
MOBILE.TWITTER.COM Is the South side of the river through Kherson higher ground? The Russian army could then let ukr forces have the north and potentially blow the dam flooding the town. Drowning and destroying armed forces and civilian personnel and equipment.
Best control the dam first before committing to the low ground downstream.
Just spiteful bad loosers with guns.
Ok, found a topography map. The south side is way lower than the northern bank.
So moving locals to the south is weird. Unless its a human sheild type. Or warning threat. Attack us, we blow dam and drown populace.
Cant see any benefits to ukr forces blowing it, the country needs its hydro power plant with alot of their others offline.
Evacuation of Kherson... Is General Armageddon going to nuke it?
