Russia still has its veto in the IMF and has used it to stop a joint communique being issued on ending its war on Ukraine.
The chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee issued a statement instead 🙂
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/10/14/pr22357-imfc-chair-statement-forty-sixth-meeting-of-the-imfc
It's high time that these International Committees got to grips with powers of veto and their use in certain contexts, e.g. war and humanitarian crises
The UN and G20 have started the process. The G8 booted Russia out in 2014 (Crimea) and reverted to being the G7
Saudi Arabia has contributed $400mn in humanitarian aid to Ukraine while continuing to offer mediation in all aspects of the invasion
It’s high time that these International Committees got to grips with powers of veto and their use in certain contexts, e.g. war and humanitarian crises
Im sure i read a claim that the power of veto at the UN is tied into lessons from the failure of the League of Nations.
I'll repost this Twitter thread from the previous page. Key point is that Russia has a lot invested in the UN continuing to function, that's why it is so desperate to quash votes that criticize its actions. Having a security council veto gives a lot of power, but also constrains the permanent members quite a lot - they have to avoid being too provocative or the UN will cease to function and they will lose any benefit of having the veto.
https://twitter.com/charlicarpenter/status/1580925601065553921
Yes, that was it I think /\/\ and it wasn’t paywalled for me
I’d say it’d be just as easy (or hard!) as the rest of the occupied territories. Ukraine has the momentum, they’ve done nothing but exceed expectations so far, I’d say they have a fighting chance of taking Crimea back too
Taking the territory isn't the difficult bit, it's holding on to it. I mentioned this on the previous page, but it have might have been lost in the talk of zombie-maggots 🙂
Let's assume that Ukraine recaptures its entire territory and has forces in the 45,000 sq miles that Russia had previously "annexed", with Crimea being 10,000 sq miles of that total (Wales is ~8000 sq miles for context). The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
Whether the world likes it or not, negotiation in some form or another will be needed, which is where China and the SCO is key (see the previous page).
In 1973 Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsular (I'm ignoring the Golan Heights/Syrian aspects for brevity). Egyptian forces invaded the Sinai in a surprise attack during a cease-fire and, to cut a long story short, were eventually beaten, with Israel advancing to within 100km of Cairo.
A clear victory but Egypt holds the Sinai to this day, following negotiations at Camp David in 1978, because Israel recognised the logistical difficulties of defending the Sinai against an Egypt who wouldn't give up and who only had to cross the Suez Canal.
There are differences obviously; the Sinai is essentially de-militarised now, whereas the whole point of the Crimea for Russia are their military air and naval bases but that will need to be worked out
Having a security council veto gives a lot of power, but also constrains the permanent members quite a lot – they have to avoid being too provocative or the UN will cease to function and they will lose any benefit of having the veto
The Russian Federation is only at the UN because it seemed natural at the time. They took the seat occupied by the Soviet Union (USSR) on its break-up, but that could equally have been Ukraine or Belarus as the surviving founder-members of the USSR.
It would be an interesting twist if the biggest wielder of the UN veto was displaced by Ukraine
Let’s assume that Ukraine recaptures its entire territory and has forces in the 45,000 sq miles that Russia had previously “annexed”, with Crimea being 10,000 sq miles of that total (Wales is ~8000 sq miles for context). The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
Whether the world likes it or not, negotiation in some form or another will be needed, which is where China and the SCO is key (see the previous page).
You could also look at in terms of the length of frontier to be policed/defended, which makes things look a little different. Seems just as sensible a metric to me. Area is relevent if it is populated by revolting natives who have to be subdued, but it is not clear which areas that will apply to after the war.
The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
Fast track entry to NATO would sort that.
what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
It depends on what you mean by "security". Crimea is basically an island with a narrow peninsula joining it to Ukraine. The Ukraine-Russia border is going to be heavily militarized for decades to come, so Crimea would be about as secure as the rest of the border regions. Ukraine would obviously station anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles along the coast so the Sea of Azov would be closed to the Russian navy and air force unless a formal peace treaty was signed. Same goes for the Sevastopol naval base- it will be ringed with Ukrainian anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles so Russia will have to abandon it as a military base even if Ukraine don't capture it. Basically, given the magnitude of Russian losses, it would be 10 or 20 years before Russia was militarily strong enough to invade Crimea again.
The security problem will be terrorist attacks or sabotage against Ukrainian military facilities. My guess is that Ukraine will have to give Crimea the status of an autonomous region within Ukraine to defuse opposition to Ukrainian rule. In other words, make it better for Russian leaning citizens to live as part of Ukraine than to live as part of Russia. Russia gave citizens of the occupied territories Russian passports, but then refused to allow them to flee to Russia when the Ukrainian counter-offensive started. Most of those people would probably be easy to convince that being Ukrainian is better than being Russian. If Ukraine can manage that, it will be very difficult for Russia to sustain an insurgency in the recaptured territories.
By all means Chewy let’s hear your views but try and read the room.
Not sure the two are compatible....
If "the West" gave Putin the option of an Idi Amin retirement somewhere to give him an off ramp, would that be enough for Ukraine?
I doubt he'd take the offer, and doesn't deal with what happens to Russia afterwards either
If “the West” gave Putin the option of an Idi Amin retirement somewhere to give him an off ramp, would that be enough for Ukraine?
I am absolutely certain that Ukraine would be perfectly fine with Putin living out his final years in exile if that meant Russian troops left Ukraine and there was a proper cease-fire. It'll never happen because Putin won't accept it. Why would he?
200 HIMARS and enough ammo 👍
If putin was to accept a peaceful retirement elsewhere, who would replace him?
Ukraine seem to launching another major offensive.
https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1581193980670537729
Looking liking a determined Ukrainian push in Kherson
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1581205848587587584?t=wac4fAVixNGLN7ijojoKdw&s=19
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581202472097701888?t=KVSxod3CfYi8Tu5dixVHfA&s=19
Certainly lots and lots of chatter about major offensive in Kherson. Reports of up to 60,000 Ukrainian troops. Not quite the 5:1 ratio that is normally cited, but given the discrepancies in terms of equipment, support, morale, training and leadership, I'd expect the on the ground effect to be more akin to a 5:1 advantage. Expect the UA to be in the outskirts of Kherson very soon..
200 HIMARS and enough ammo 👍
200 HMMWVS aka Humvees (High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles)??
At what point will ukraine be able to start taking ground just by doing a tiktok video that says "we're going to go there tomorrow" and then sending one fat bloke with a flag, and some people to clear up the abandoned tanks?
Fulcrum in the air on CAS according to the twitterarti.
Apparently looking to secure the dam, to use as a crossing then encircle Kherson.
Wont be fun for the locals caught inside, or the beleaguered Russian forces, any conscript must be crapping themselves whilst looking for a way out.
Kremina still being probed, or bypassed as a route to sevetdonesk as well.
Hopefully mass surrender will take place to save lives and infrastructure, stupid stupid stupidity from Pootin.
Fulcrum in the air on CAS according to the twitterarti.
What's fulcrum and CAS?
@shermer75 A 'Fulcrum' is a MIG29 - WIKI
IE A Russian developed fighter from the late 70's
CAS = Close Air Support
EDIT - I am not knowledgeable, just a few minutes ahead of you in the internet search...
Ok thanks! 🙂
Am I allowed a little light amongst the shade…
Our volunteer leader, the 21yr old responsible for sending 3 vans, a 4x4, and three ambulances, as well as tonnes of aid to Ukraine is back there next week to attend a wedding.
Ramaz and Zhana - Georgians🇬🇪 In Ukraine helping the volunteer effort are getting married on the 30th of October. As we have another ambulance going down the village group thought it would be nice to send a hamper of the most British stuff we could:
Marmite, Cheddar, biscuits, tea, Hook Norton or Chadlington ale (our local Brewery’s) etc.
Please any ideas would be gratefully received as I’m thinking it will be condiment and jam heavy.
Fray Bentos tinned meat pies? Highland Shortbread?
Yes!!
Personally I'd skip the Fray Bentos. I used to be a fan back in the day, but they are a shadow of their former glory. Filled with a watery gravy and very little meat.
How about, Melton Mowbray pork pies, good quality bacon, a bottle of single malt, posh crisps, after eight mints?
Edit: Crumpets, black pudding, clotted cream, Bakewell tart.
Hob nobs and fry's chocolate.
Tonnocks tea cakes to get them addicted to those Scottish foil packets
Kendal Mint Cake
Twiglets
Mini Cheddars
Digestives
Tomato Ketchup
Percy pigs, all day long
A French colleague used to take home large variety bags of Hula Hoops for his Kids whenever he was in the UK.
I thought they were a global 'snack', but it seems not! - Hula Hoops Wiki
Is there something like a Go-Fund-Me page to donate cash/Items?
Proper crisps.
Stilton.
Cornish pasty goodness.
Amazing ideas thanks-
Bentandbroken that’s a lovely idea but no there’s nothing but I’m happy to buy on anyones behalf, as long as it’s not too spendy.
Blackjacks Fruitsalads and shrimps (“penny” sweets)
Hula hoops are from Hawaii, no?
irn bru
stoats oats bars.
With the bonus the entire Ukrainian army will become dependant on them and hence profit!
Wonder how much the unrest in Irann will effect future shipments of drones & weapons to Russia
the new Iranian drones have been used pretty quicklyby Russia
While we're talking cycling... Ilya, a Russian triathlete, took a train to Murmansk and then cycled 150 miles to Kirkenes in Norway to avoid mobilisation. Google maps doesn't consider that you might want to cycle 250 miles north of the Arctic circle and the option is greyed out 🙂
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) seems to be in the news this week:
An electrical sub-station was destroyed causing power-cuts
A residential block was struck; the Russians say by Ukrainian shelling, the Ukrainians say by a Russian missile misfiring
"Volunteers" in the Russian mobilisation turned their weapons on one another killing eleven and injuring another fifteen. Ukraine said that religious comments towards Tajikistan volunteers was the cause
And the Belgorod submarine, largest in the world, has popped up in the Arctic Circle. An RAF Poseidon P8 allegedly intercepted a message that the sub had technical problems but I can't confirm that bit
Elon Musk, who was switching Ukrainian access to Starlink off on Friday because it was making a loss, is now continuing to provide the Starlink service to Ukraine
And the Belgorod submarine, largest in the world, has popped up in the Arctic Circle. An RAF Poseidon P8 allegedly intercepted a message that the sub had technical problems but I can’t confirm that bit
It took them 30 years to finish that build. I would suspect that it is an absolute heap of junk.
Maybe Elon got slapped wrists for being a huge defence contractor with the US and having talks with Putin. allegedly
