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It's widely reported that Japan is easing restrictions on its arms exports that were largely imposed as part of the national feeling of pacifism following WW2.
It maintains an active defence industry and is in partnership with the UK and Italy on the Global Combat Air Programme (as opposed to the UK/Italy FCAS programme).
Various nations have expressed interest in the potential offerings. Japan's Mitsubishi has been building F35 aircraft (since 2025) and Patriot missiles (since early 2000s) and exported coals to Newcastle, errr, Patriots to the US, last year, although they're licensed by the US so are unlikely to be exported more generally.
Could be here or the Hungary thread I guess
If these numbers are accurate then Russia will be facing the politically unpalatable choice of mobilisation
@timba, what's you thoughts on the likelihood of Putin declaring full mobilisation? Obviously dangerous for him personally/politically, given the protests that it sparked last time the rumors about it surfaced. But at the same time I can see why a 'limited call up' just short of mobilisation would provide him with hugely more offensive capabilities.
The Ukrianian tactic of inflicting massive attrition for tiny land advances has worked thus far, but an overwhelming "Schwerpunkt" (to borrow from Wehrmacht, which seem apropos) might be the breakthrough that Russia/Putin is hoping for.
If these numbers are accurate then Russia will be facing the politically unpalatable choice of mobilisation
@timba, what's you thoughts on the likelihood of Putin declaring full mobilisation? Obviously dangerous for him personally/politically, given the protests that it sparked last time the rumors about it surfaced. But at the same time I can see why a 'limited call up' just short of mobilisation would provide him with hugely more offensive capabilities.
The Ukrianian tactic of inflicting massive attrition for tiny land advances has worked thus far, but an overwhelming "Schwerpunkt" (to borrow from Wehrmacht, which seem apropos) might be the breakthrough that Russia/Putin is hoping for.
I think that you'd need a greater appreciation of how Russian people think than my minimal understanding, but maintaining a social contract with the population in exchange for their loyalty is clearly important.
Domestic security, controls and the law have tightened, but the social contract is still there despite the machinery of autocracy being tuned up.
As to an overwhelming main effort; I'm not sure that it's possible under current conditions to mobilise, equip and logistically support a full compulsory call-up.
Smaller, covert mobilisations (students, prisoners, PMCs absorbed by the MoD, etc) to date have seen troops without boots, weapons, body armour, uniform not matched to terrain, vehicles with fake reactive armour, etc, which is partially explained by levels of higher command corruption, evidenced by the current wave of command moves, arrests and charges.
Odious grifter JD Vance has been trumpeting one of his proudest achievements as ceasing funding Ukraine.
That'll please his Moscow line manager.
KYIVINDEPENDENT.COM As to an overwhelming main effort; I'm not sure that it's possible under current conditions to mobilise, equip and logistically support a full compulsory call-up.
Up thread I posted an APN video where they talk about the likelihood of something relatively major and definitely nasty being a late effort to break European support for Ukraine.
That wouldn't be something done to Ukrainians, but to another European country.
I don't know what's going to happen or when obviously, but it's clear Putin is pretty desperate to not lose so it seems plausible something will happen before then end of the war. As by that point, if there's no meaningful win for Putin he will start running out of things to lose.
Odious grifter JD Vance has been trumpeting one of his proudest achievements as ceasing funding Ukraine.
Quick distract MAGA from us taking a strategic loss to Iran, not forcing Ukraine to capitulate, damaging US security, the Boss and his protection of peadophiles that he also hung out with for most of his life, massive corruption, the Boss and his increasingly clear mental instability and ineptitude, helping our political allies take massive electoral losses, and hopefully nobody is asking where the "gazillions" of "extra" foreign investment is, or even noticing that tariffs are now being paid for with a direct increase of cost to the US consumer.
As to an overwhelming main effort; I'm not sure that it's possible under current conditions to mobilise, equip and logistically support a full compulsory call-up.
Up thread I posted an APN video where they talk about the likelihood of something relatively major and definitely nasty being a late effort to break European support for Ukraine.
That wouldn't be something done to Ukrainians, but to another European country.
I don't know what's going to happen or when obviously, but it's clear Putin is pretty desperate to not lose so it seems plausible something will happen before then end of the war. As by that point, if there's no meaningful win for Putin he will start running out of things to lose.
I've only listened once, but I think that what he's saying is that Ukraine is vital to defend against a combined Russia-Belarus attack. In that event, Russian military planners would need to be able to discount Ukraine, which surely makes an early decisive attack on Ukraine more rather than less likely.
We had months of notice of a Russian build-up pre-2022, although the EU ignored UK and US warnings. To build a force Russia would need to move its combat-hardened troops a looong way north from southern Ukraine because mobilised troops tend to be poorly trained and equipped.
The "running out of things to lose" could equate to a nuclear strike, but hopefully that will remain off the table. Europe has few nukes, but Russia has few major population centres.
I think that a build-up will be taken a bit more seriously in Europe now
A catch-all article that's worth reading. It has links to more in-depth items, e.g. Ukraine's first combined bomb and missile attack with NATO weapons. That item shows the planning that goes into strikes to make the use of stand-off weapons survivable for aircraft; only S300/400/500 missiles could have touched the launch aircraft, but the munitions used are vulnerable to shorter-ranged air defences.
The US State Dept has belatedly recognised that Cuban troops are being used in Ukraine (they were also trusted as the Presidential Guard in Venezuela). It's unusual for this WH to be at all supportive of Ukraine, hmmm, leaked to media-outlet Axios, let's take a wild stab in the dark...
KYIVPOST.COM A quick update from Ukraine's commander, General Oleksandr Syrskyi and the Ministry of Defence.
Combined air and ground drone combined arms tactics developed in the field and working well
Ah, have I looked at the wrong vid?
I followed the APN link from BUTR, "Ukraine's Role in Europe's Security"
I'll have to look at that link later ^^
Talking of hybrid attacks on the UK/Europe. There's a perfect target down here in Kent for Putin, the SS Richard Montgomery.
A WW2 liberty ship that sunk right next to a town on the isle of Sheppey. Has around 1400 tonnes of explosives on board, so about 1/10 if the explosive power of the nukes dropped on Japan. No government has had the balls to deal with it as yet and it's becoming increasingly unstable.
Something as simple as a time delayed hand grenade dropped on it from a small boat/kayak would likely be enough to trigger a massive explosion with a very high amount of plausible deniability for Russia.
SS Richard Montgomery - Wikipedia
1,400 tons of explosives jin a boat ust off the coast near the harbour? Rings a bell!
A little off topic, but they're planning on removing Monty's masts. Think if I lived on the north Kent coast, I'd be planning a long holiday!
BBC.CO.UK Something as simple as a time delayed hand grenade dropped on it from a small boat/kayak would likely be enough to trigger a massive explosion
It's not quite that simple. Dropping explosives from the surface would be very hit and miss and you'd need something much bigger than a hand grenade to be in with much chance of causing sympathetic detonation of the whole cargo. Even then there'd be a lot of luck needed. To guarantee it, you'd need multiple high explosive donor charges placed directly on the larger munitions (aircraft bombs) in key positions, linked with det cord and initiated simultaneously. This would require hours, if not days of work by a skilled diving team.
I am not saying it's safe or that an accidental explosion is impossible, far from it. Just that it's a little bit less of a risk than some of the more lurid headlines over the years might suggest.
I spent 7 years on Foulness working with a scientific staff who's expertise was explosives and we did a lot of explosive safety testing. There was a whole other establishment that dealt just with environmental testing of explosives. No one was unduly worried about it going bang.
As to an overwhelming main effort; I'm not sure that it's possible under current conditions to mobilise, equip and logistically support a full compulsory call-up.
Up thread I posted an APN video where they talk about the likelihood of something relatively major and definitely nasty being a late effort to break European support for Ukraine.
That wouldn't be something done to Ukrainians, but to another European country.
I don't know what's going to happen or when obviously, but it's clear Putin is pretty desperate to not lose so it seems plausible something will happen before then end of the war. As by that point, if there's no meaningful win for Putin he will start running out of things to lose.
I've got the correct video now 🙂
I think that part of the problem is that the video is 11 days old now and a lot has changed, including elections in Hungary, one quote from the video is,
And there's so much happening. It's dizzying.(46:22)
I'd still go with my comments about the later APN video ^^ that argue against full mobilisation and a direct attack on Europe,
I've only listened once, but I think that what he's saying is that Ukraine is vital to defend against a combined Russia-Belarus attack. In that event, Russian military planners would need to be able to discount Ukraine, which surely makes an early decisive attack on Ukraine more rather than less likely.
I'd suggest that the loss of Hungary's vote against EU actions will also change the calculation in Russia, along with the unpredictability of the US, e.g. energy sanctions back on after temporary reprieve, will they respond to an Article 5 NATO defence request? the loss of Iran's weapon support with the destruction of Caspian Sea shipping, Russia's clear support of Iran against US interests, etc.
I think that Russia will go after potential allies within the EU to replace Hungary, e.g. PM Babiš in the Czech Republic, PM Fico in Slovakia and, from the fringes of EU accession, President Vučić of Serbia.
That'll be linked IMHO to the possibility of full scale hybrid warfare, as proposed by the Silicon Curtain's Jonathan Fink, however, whether you go for the invasion option or the hybrid warfare option, it's plain that Russia has a number of calculations to make.
It's equally plain that neither invasion (of Ukraine) nor hybrid warfare in Europe have produced results in isolation and we're now into the fifth year of this war. It would need to be something very special to break Europe's will and invasion is more likely to galvanise Europe than split the ditherers off.
That's it. I mean, my bet is on a full scale hybrid assault. But again, they would have to be absolutely assured that that would coerce, um, you know, various countries to, to, to not assist Ukraine, to stockpile their weapons, to not retaliate. (45:43)
Russia continues to lean heavily on the information war/reflexive control with various claims, for example:
that Baltic states are allowing drone strikes from their territory on Russia
and Ukrainian drone partnerships manufacturing in Europe, which together make Europe a legitimate target for Russian forces
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on April 16 that Moscow reserves what he described as the "right to self-defense" if Ukrainian drones strike Russia via their airspace, the Kremlin-controlled TASS news agency reported
The remarks follow a separate warning from Moscow a day earlier that European support for Ukraine's drone capabilities could bring "unpredictable consequences," accusing several countries of becoming part of Kyiv's "strategic rear."
And separately,
(former US ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer) said Moscow’s move appeared aimed at pressuring European governments and companies involved in supporting Ukraine’s defense industry.
“To be sure, the Russians are trying to intimidate those countries in Europe that are now working with Ukraine on the production of drones,” Pifer said.Analysts say the publication of the lists is part of a broader effort by Moscow to deter Western support for Ukraine.
The interview also talks about either "winning" or avoiding a "catastrophic defeat". They aren't relevant terms IMV. Even President Zelensky talks of "thwarted" and "difficult" at an operational/tactical level,
The offensive they planned for March was thwarted by the actions of our armed forces. That is why the Russians will now simply intensify their offensive operations.
- Zelenskyy 3rd April
Overall, the front line is holding... The situation is difficult, but the best in the last 10 months.
- Zelenskyy said, "citing Ukrainian and British intelligence data." (Reuters)
Both Russia and Europe have problems with people.
Russia is concerned about the likely impact of demobbed former soldiers with psychological problems and access to weapons after their experience of the 1990s, while Europe still lacks political will, cohesion and a strategy beyond supporting Ukraine for "as long as it takes"
"As more and more of them begin to be demobilised and return home, Russia will see an influx of veterans ... bearing the psychological impacts of war."
Such concerns go all the way to the top, with President Vladimir Putin viewing the prospect of an army returning en masse as a potential risk he wants carefully managed to avoid destabilising society and the political system he has built, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.
The aim, one of the sources said, is to avoid a repeat of the social ructions that followed the end of the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, when returning veterans helped fuel a wave of organised crime that blighted the 1990s.
Sources:
Youtube vids ^^
Does anyone take Russian threats seriously any more? So many so called red lines have been crossed
Does anyone take Russian threats seriously any more? So many so called red lines have been crossed
Wednesday is nuclear armageddon threat day as it is the 22nd of the month again already.
An interesting idea in hybrid warfare according to The Times
Russia could seize an island to test Nato at any time, warns Sweden
The country’s military chief believes the Kremlin may launch an attack in the Baltic Sea to expose divisions within the western alliance
Would western European countries respond to an article 5 request for the invasion of a potentially unoccupied island in the east of Europe?