Putin is isolated and is making mistakes Head of GCHQ Jeremy Fleming also reports that Russia is low on munitions.
Jeremy Fleming also reports that Russia is low on munitions
So what next? Have the troops quietly fall back and declare that his 'special operation' met all of its objectives and is now over or use the other weapons he still has at his disposal?
Fingers crossed, Kimbers
No idea. Would Putin try to force Lukashenko bring Belarussian forces into play? If so, does Lukashenko risk potential domestic unrest?
Would Putin try to force Lukashenko bring Belarussian forces into play? If so, does Lukashenko risk potential domestic unrest?
Are we sure Belarusian military would even be up to much?
I have no idea.
My guess is that Putin is attempting to use this as leverage to persuade Japan to not support Ukraine. Or it could be that Putin is just plain stupid.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Ukraine-war-Free-to-read/Ukraine-latest-Japan-to-consult-with-partners-on-Sakhalin-1
12:15 p.m. Japan will decide what to do about the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East in consultation with its partners as it reviews details of a decree by Moscow, Japanese industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said. Russia last week issued a decree allowing it to seize Exxon Mobil's 30% stake and gave a Russian state-run company the authority to decide whether foreign shareholders, including Japan's SODECO, can retain their participation in the project. "The Sakhalin-1 remains an important project for Japan in terms of energy security," Nishimura said, adding that the project is a key energy source outside the Middle East, on which Japan relies for more than 95% of its oil supply.
Would Putin try to force Lukashenko bring Belarussian forces into play? If so, does Lukashenko risk potential domestic unrest?
Apparently there is massing of forces on the Belarus border at the moment.
A few thoughts:
- I though Lukashenko was on a shoogly peg already internally, with a good few ready to protest and try to oust him. A war he wouldn't win and international political / national suicide would not play well among the population.
- Does his military have appetite for a fight? They have seen the casualties and destruction - and it is not their fight.
- Does his military have the capability to do much beyond an incursion, lob a few bombs and create some destruction on the civilian population and resources?
I would hope/expect that the 'back channels' from USA/NATO/EU to Lukashenko are busy warning him off at the moment.
Plucky little Britain, outnumbered and holding fast against the Nazi hordes.An absolute myth.
The Indian Army numbered 2.5m at the end of the war. And then theres the contribution of US industry even before they went to war.
Are we sure Belarusian military would even be up to much?
There are claims of large numbers of Russiam conscripts heading into Belarus.
There are claims of large numbers of Russiam conscripts heading into Belarus.
Armed with stones and strong language.
Theyre only purpose "may" be to simply shore up Lukashenko and fix Ukrainian forces along the Belarus border.
Both will have a value.
Maybe an attempt to open a second front and divert some of ukraines attention and manpower from the east.
Likely not a true threat, but could be enough to stall ukraines offensive.
#even if they dont attack ukraine will need to have defences in place. To be honest if they do I can imagine it will be another bloodbath like the first attempt to take Kyiv
This is what I was getting concerned about
There are claims of large numbers of Russiam conscripts heading into Belarus.
Armed with stones and strong language.
And Vodka. Don't forget the vodka.
To be honest if they do I can imagine it will be another bloodbath like the first attempt to take Kyiv
With everything that has happened since February, I think it would be even worse. In February much happened through desperation and 'made up' on the spot reactions. I suspect this time a dose of preparation, tactics and vastly improved skill will really stop things in their tracks.
Also, at what point does the real cold arrive? This may well have quite an impact on the (unprepared) Russian troops and morale. In February and March there were more than a few Russians with hyperthermia, frostbite and death through the cold.
And Vodka. Don’t forget the vodka.
I personally think that we should ensure lots of vodka is supplied, for free, to the Russians on the front lines.
Also, at what point does the real cold arrive?
Depends where! It's coldest from November to March. Kiev gets proper cold, which can last til April. Further south, Kherson isn't an awful lot worse than Manchester in winter. Cold, but not deep into minus numbers!
Kherson isn’t an awful lot worse than Manchester
Is that according to the Met Office or Trip Advisor?
Kherson isn’t an awful lot worse than Manchester
Is that according to the Met Office or Trip Advisor?
Indeed. Does Kherson have the equivalent of Piccadilly Gardens?
Is that according to the Met Office or Trip Advisor?
Sharp!
Has anyone ever tried air-dropping booze and weed to enemy front lines?
LSD would do it ...but not allowed
I got stuck in Kyiv in late December one year because of the cold and the snow. Now admittedly that was down entirely to UK airports being totally incapable of dealing with the issue and the Ukrainians had no issues in dealing with it but it was pretty cold there. I'd not want to be a conscript with no winter clothing, no tent and no sleeping bag.
LSD would do it …but not allowed
All you'd have to do would be to drop sealed bottles and baggies and it doesn't count as chemical warfare.
My Ukrainian contractor in Lviv reports that she is now back to work, with the words
The positive thing is that the Russians have 100 fewer missiles now
LSD would do it …but not allowed
Not sure bombing civilians is allowed either...
How many missles have they got left? it’s been reporting they have been low for sometime, and then they can still fire 80+ in one night, that’s why I thought it would be a much nastier response. So whilst it’s terrible, it could have been so much worse. Lots of threats about if Ukraine attack the bridge a second time. It’s a shame it wasn’t completely destroyed outright
Has anyone ever tried air-dropping
booze andweed to enemy front lines?
The Vietcong?
LSD would do it …but not allowed
LSD is kid's stuff, the CIA keeps the good drugs for itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MKUltra
MKUltra's researchers later dismissed LSD as too unpredictable in its results.[59] They gave up on the notion that LSD was "the secret that was going to unlock the universe," but it still had a place in the cloak-and-dagger arsenal. However, by 1962 the CIA and the army developed a series of super-hallucinogens such as the highly touted BZ, which was thought to hold greater promise as a mind control weapon. This resulted in the withdrawal of support by many academics and private researchers, and LSD research became less of a priority altogether.[56]
Has anyone ever tried air-dropping booze and weed to enemy front lines?
We're going on a bonging run
LSD would do it …
Been tried and tested back in the 60s.
We’re going on a bonging run
Vote of appreciation for that from me
Lots of threats about if Ukraine attack the bridge a second time.
Do they need to? There was talk about the Russians running test trains across it the day after the fire, but that might have been propoganda, anyone know if the rail side is operable?
The road side isn't such an issue because they won't be able to get the volume of supplies in by truck that they could with trains.
The Belorussian army are mainly used to shoot at protestors and it wasn't so long ago they rebelled so I wouldn't describe them as a game changer. At least not in a positive way for Putin
tthew
Do they need to? There was talk about the Russians running test trains across it the day after the fire, but that might have been propoganda, anyone know if the rail side is operable?
Photos suggested there was still a bloody great burnt out train in the way at the time, but it's hard to know.
The road bridge seems fairly irrelevant from a war-scale logistics point of view, since the russians already don't have enough trucks and effective road hubs as it stands, let alone to take up losses from rail. That seems to tie in with the strategic side, with rail depots apparently being pretty much the most important things on the map.
(the flipside is that with decent logistics already in place, which you never know, there might be, they could have good transshipping options at either end of the bridge and the capacity to relay loads quickly and efficiently across the bridge using a relatively small amount of militarily-useless trucks and loaders. Basically just civilianising it completely and turning it into something like a tesco warehouse, probably by nicking a load of stuff from the equivalent of tesco. But I don't see much likelihood of that and of course they're also now very aware that the bridge and the area around are targets- a big transshipping yard would be a bigger target.)
Ukraine now getting state of the art defence systems that NATO would never have given them before the invasion
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-sends-long-awaited-defence-systems-to-ukraine-bbprcnxk6
Whether Kerch Trainline can take Russian heavy military equipment is a good questionim sure it can be repaired but those tanks are not light
the equivalent of tesco.
Tesco use pallets and forklifts. The Russians load the wooden boxes onto and off of transport manually.
50 second clip of the damage to the rail section of the bridge, also shows the road section viewed from above. Some trucks appear to have welded themselves to the rails.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579672590251364354
Plenty of comments from people, far more knowledgeable than me, suggesting it's cattled due to the temperatures involved.?
I'd imagine those train axels are a beefier bits of metal that much of the bridge material and you can see they've gotten hot enough to have sagged in the middle under their own weight
The positive thing is that the Russians have 100 fewer missiles now
British levels of sang froid there!
This reminds me of TE Lawrence's tactics disrupting the Hejaz Railway. The aim wasn't to destroy a bridge entirely, as it could be rebuilt fairly quickly. If its just rendered unsafe to use, it would have had to be dismantled and rebuilt, wasting time and resources.
Ukraine now getting state of the art defence systems that NATO would never have given them before the invasion
The problem with having these systems in small numbers is what you do with them. Do you put them in a city that hasn't been attacked in several months, or do you put them in position to support your advance?
Mobile AA systems, e.g. the Gepard with twin 35mm guns are more suited to moving with advancing forces. This system also has a ground anti-armour capability
Ukrainian forces report using Soviet mobile AA SA8 Gecko with the Gepards to give good coverage; they are extremely inventive 🙂
Plenty of comments from people, far more knowledgeable than me, suggesting it’s cattled due to the temperatures involved.?
That's what I'd hoped because some of the photos I saw showed an exposed steel construction on the underside rather than full concrete and reinforcement, but you'll get a significant insulation effect from a decent thickness of concrete deck where the flames didn't directly impinge on it.
I really hope it's ****ed.
