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Seems bad to me in that it sounds like the US using EU/Nato funds to purchase their own equipment.
Ukraine now arguably has the most capable army in Europe, by some measure. Certainly the one best adapted to the seismic change in battlefield tactics of recent years. The US, UK and just about everyone else has a lot of catching up to do. European countries seem to get this. US hubris, especially under the current regime seems to mean they don't.
I can't remember where I read it, sorry, but apparently the UK is to stop training Ukrainian soldiers, because a lot of what the British, and various others based here, trainers were teaching them has become out of date as the conflict has changed. To the extent that Ukrainians are teaching the Brits and others their tactics. I don't think that included the US, as you say, they don't think they've anything to learn, the rest of us aren't so arrogant and will listen to anyone who has relevant experience and has developed tactics which work.
this seems very bad
The Washington Post: On Monday, the Pentagon informed Congress that it plans to reallocate $750 million—originally provided by NATO allies for Ukraine’s weapons procurement under the PURL program—for its own needs. 👇
I think that's all a bit over-blown, but let's be clear that if it happens then it won't help Ukraine get US-made weapons promptly.
Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) operates behind a veil of obscurity and AIUI the contracts aren't publicly available, however, NATO deposits money in a US-held pot and the US fulfills the sale.
Where the goods come from is unclear and delivery dates are also unclear, but if the stuff is in stock then it goes out immediately, and the pot is raided for the appropriate $$$ in payment. If not then it gets made for later dispatch.
First of all the reallocation of funds, if it exists, is an intention rather than a current fact, which is why NATO has said,
In response to a query about the report, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said weapons continue to be delivered to Kyiv."Everything that NATO allies and partners have paid for through PURL has been delivered or continues to flow to Ukraine," she said, referring to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, a mechanism that allows European countries to pay for U.S. weapons on behalf of Ukraine.
ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG
Both Ukraine and Russia are facing major budget issues.
President Putin is reportedly close to breaking personal contracts with both the populace and billionaire oligarchs. He promised to provide for the people, particularly the elderly. military veterans and families, if they in turn support him.
He promised oligarchs that the state wouldn't seize their businesses and renationalise them in return for their support.
The cost of living and now the economy are forcing change,
At a closed-door meeting, Putin is said to have urged Russian oligarchs to bankroll his war in Ukraine – with at least two of them agreeing to his "proposal.” (KP)
ISW added a bit more detail,
(Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry) Peskov claimed that one participant discussed the necessity of donating a “very large sum of money” (believed to be 100 billion rubles (about $1.22 billion)) to the Russian state, but emphasized that this is a personal decision. (ISW)
That isn't to say that the economy is all going Ukraine's way. Hungary holding up the €90bn EU loan is about to cause major problems if it isn't unjammed in the coming weeks.
Ukraine has serious problems within its own economy and needs urgent reforms to access further money from the IMF. Good relations with the Gulf States are exactly what's needed right now for some down-payments,
"Ukraine may reportedly run out of money for its defense within two months, as tens of billions of euros in critical donor support faces multiple threats." (KP)
"Ukraine and Saudi Arabia concluded a defense cooperation agreement on March 27. The Ukrainian Presidential Office reported that Ukraine will help Saudi Arabia with air defenses under the agreement, which also outlines the foundations for further contacts and includes technological cooperation and investments." (ISW)
Sources:
KYIVPOST.COM 
There is reporting to suggest that the European manufactured SAMP/T has outperformed Patriot in Ukraine against Iskander ballistic missiles.
It's almost impossible to compare them. There are pros and cons:
Patriot has almost twice the range of SAMP/T but relies more on hitting the target. SAMP/T spreads warhead fragments across a wider area
Both suffer with software problems and both are being continuously upgraded with data gathered in Ukraine (which might explain some of the software problems)
SAMP/T is very definitely quicker to deploy (15mins v 30mins for Patriot) and can be driven to site at faster speeds too.
The new Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG is the one to watch. Recently donated by France for testing by Ukraine, it closes the range gap with Patriot and has a brand new radar system.
It's made by MBDA (Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo) who also make Storm Shadow/SCALP EG
It's almost impossible to compare them.
I would argue it's very easy to compare them! Whilst of course acknowledging any differences.
"Compare, verb, estimate, measure, or note the similarity or dissimilarity between" 😉
Patriot has almost twice the range of SAMP/T but relies more on hitting the target. SAMP/T spreads warhead fragments across a wider area
Depends which Patriot version. The PAC-2 has a large warhead and proximity fuze, the PAC-3 a very small warhead because it relies more on a direct hit and kinetic energy. Advantages being a smaller, more maneuverable missile which takes up less space on the launcher (3 missiles replace 1 in the earlier version).
When I did my advanced GM course, many, many moons ago and long before Patriot was even dreamt of, we referred to these different types of systems as "missiles" and "hitiles". PAC-2 is a missile and PAC-3 is a hitile. I believe Ukraine has both.
For those concerned about how the increase in oil prices due to the Iran war might be benefiting Russia, this Paul Warburg video is worth a watch. Please ignore the slightly hyperbolic and click-baity title, the content is better than that. Long story short, it doesn't matter how much a barrel of oil is theoretically worth to Russia if they can't get it to market.
I would argue it's very easy to compare them! Whilst of course acknowledging any differences.
"Compare, verb, estimate, measure, or note the similarity or dissimilarity between" 😉
Well, yes, of course you can compare them, I wonder how valid it is 😜
There is reporting to suggest that the European manufactured SAMP/T has outperformed Patriot in Ukraine against Iskander ballistic missiles.
Spookily, one was a French report from a manufacturing country.
It's acknowledged that the report was only made after Russia spent two years analysing Patriot, its radar emissions and attack profile. Russia then adapted the Iskander BM specifically to evade Patriot.
SAMP/T uses X-band radar as opposed to the Patriot F-G band so isn't affected by Iskander EW mods.
The report was biased un peu!
Depends which Patriot version.
More of a general comment, really. Russia appeared to have made specific mods for only the PAC3 MSE variant.
The SAMP/T Aster 30 block 0 missile has minimal anti-BM capability. The block 1 is better and the block 1 NT better still, so the same version discussion applies. All have been used in Ukraine.
Apologies for the nerdery, someone will be along to accuse me of onanism
Really interesting insight into the nuts and bolts of Ukrainian domestic drone manufacture, through the eyes of one manufacturing company. Some of the stuff it covers:
- How they changed from a logistics to a miltec company following the invasion
- How they grew and innovated
- How government legislation to streamline the procurement and tendering processes was vital to get hardware to the frontline in a timely manner
- How product development and specification is driven by end users, not government bureaucrats which increases effectiveness and provides a feedback loop for continuous improvement (Jeez - UK defence procurement could learn a few things here)!
- How units order their drones from a website "an Amazon for drones"
- How manufacturing and warehousing is geographically dispersed which enhances resilience and safety, but complicates logistics
- Their plans when the war ends
Quite a bit more too. As an aside, I usually find Kyiv Independant videos to be pretty good, whatever the subject. A little less superficial and frivolous than many and not afraid to show negatives as well as positives. I.e. actual journalism and not just tubthumping pro-Ukrainian propaganda.
Ukraine now arguably has the most capable army in Europe, by some measure. Certainly the one best adapted to the seismic change in battlefield tactics of recent years. The US, UK and just about everyone else has a lot of catching up to do. European countries seem to get this. US hubris, especially under the current regime seems to mean they don't.
I can't remember where I read it, sorry, but apparently the UK is to stop training Ukrainian soldiers, because a lot of what the British, and various others based here, trainers were teaching them has become out of date as the conflict has changed. To the extent that Ukrainians are teaching the Brits and others their tactics. I don't think that included the US, as you say, they don't think they've anything to learn, the rest of us aren't so arrogant and will listen to anyone who has relevant experience and has developed tactics which work.
Partially accurate. One of the other considerations that informed the change in approach is the inability to conduct their version of combined arms live fire due to the limitations of UK ranges/airspace.
Another important element of infantry training is battle inoculation, we simply can't do that in the UK to the depth the Ukrainians need with the spectrum of equipment they are operating and on similar terrain.
We're significantly constrained which is why we go abroad to for certain (combined arms ) live fire serials
More power to them, their Army will be better for it.
*They've also had some issues with desertion so there is a control element to this as well.
Russian forces have made some evidenced advances in the significant "fortress belt" city of Kostyantynivka. The advances don't signify control and it remains to be seen whether Russian forces can consolidate the ground and maintain logistics.
Russian forces advanced into the "fortress belt" cities in 2014 during their initial invasion, but only for a brief period. Ukraine has held the cities and the H20 national highway since then. The H20 intersects with the greater road network at several points, including the so-called international M-class routes.
Kostyantynivka is the southern-most city in the "fortress belt" and a Russian advance on the H20 would need to pass through three other cities held by Ukraine.
Cities and towns are prized because they offer logistics routes, hard cover in basements for command, troops, etc and high buildings for aerials, radar and other uses.
The city has been under Russian attack for weeks now with alleged illegal use of phosphorus munitions against people and heavy guided bombing with 1500kg FAB-1500 (675kg warhead). Phosphorus is legal, but only for target marking and forming smoke.
President Zelensky said yesterday (31st),
“They told the American side they would take the east of our country in two months… and that Ukraine has two months to withdraw"
Russian forces have seized around 50% less land in Ukraine for the six months from October 2025 to March 2026 as compared to a similar period in 2024-25, although they claimed full control of the Luhansk region of the Donbas today. Ukraine has been clinging on to <1% for some time, so this isn't a big surprise.
UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG "Ukraine has been targeting Russian Baltic Sea port and oil infrastructure for the past week (since March 23) in Leningrad Oblast, causing significant damage at the Kinef oil refinery in Kirishi, the Novatek Ust-Luga in Ust-Luga, the Transneft oil terminal at the port of Primorsk, and a project 23550 Purga-class patrol icebreaker at the Vyborg Shipyard."
"Bloomberg noted that the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga decreased the number of tankers loading crude oil from 18 tankers between the two ports from March 16 to 22 to six tankers between March 23 to 29 as a result of the Ukrainian strikes. ISW continues to assess that Russia’s ability to sell oil is partially a function of its ability to transport it, and continued Ukrainian drone strikes will degrade Russia’s ability to transport oil, which may partially offset the United States’ partial lifting of oil sanctions against Russia."
Forgetting about its de facto declaration of war on Ukraine by supplying Russia with drones, drone tech and manufacturing tech,
Iran said Kyiv’s deployment of counter-drone specialists to Middle Eastern countries amounted to “material and operational support” for US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
It seems that Ukraine was threatened quietly when a “rather hysterical” President Donald Trump apparently applied pressure on NATO allies to help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
His threats were towards PURL and other US support for Ukraine, despite the war being absolutely nothing to do with either NATO or Ukraine.
"According to three officials, cited by the Financial Times, Trump pushed NATO allies to deploy naval forces to secure the strait but faced resistance from several European capitals, which argued the operation was not feasible amid ongoing conflict and “not our war.”
In response, Trump warned he could halt shipments to PURL, a NATO-backed weapons procurement initiative for Ukraine funded by European countries.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte intervened, urging allies to issue a joint statement signaling support. On March 19, countries including France, Germany, and the UK said they were ready to contribute to efforts ensuring safe passage through the strait.""One official said the statement was rushed after Trump threatened to pull back not only from PURL but from broader support for Ukraine."
"The UK acknowledged military-level discussions with Washington on securing the strait but did not deny that US support for Ukraine had been used as leverage."
"Rubio said US military aid to Ukraine through the PURL mechanism has not yet been affected but did not rule out future diversions.
“If we need something for America, we’re going to keep it for America first,” he said." (Which, as discussed previously, is their right)
There are, of course, scammers preying on Ukraine,
"Ukrainian law enforcement has uncovered a large-scale scheme involving the theft and resale of drones supplied to the military under the “Army of Drones” program, the Prosecutor General’s Office said on Wednesday, April 1.
According to investigators, a unit commander and two civilian accomplices are suspected of organizing the scheme, which resulted in losses exceeding Hr.15.2 million ($370,000).""Russia has begun dropping fake Ukrainian money with “hostile” QR codes in the border Chernihiv and Sumy regions, according to local officials on Thursday.
The bills resemble Ukraine’s hryvna banknotes but with an extra banner on top depicting a QR code, with texts that say, “Share the coordinates and help start a fire. You will get real [money],” according to photos shared by Oleh Hrihorov, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration.""Ukrainian authorities said they have uncovered a fraudulent scheme in the demining sector, where suspects falsely claimed to have cleared already demined areas to siphon Hr.6.3 million (about $144,000) from the government."
False-flagging of "shadow fleet" tankers is losing its appeal because it causes interceptions at sea. The fleet will have to sail openly and legally to avoid stop-checks, but that opens them up to sanctions-busting enforcement instead,
"A US seizure of a Russian‑flagged tanker and a new wave of UK-EU enforcement have punctured the appeal of the Russian register for shadow fleet operators
US seizure of the Russian‑flagged Marinera shattered assumptions that Moscow’s registry offered protection from interdiction
Reflagging to Russia has collapsed in 2026, with only two shadow fleet tankers switching by late March
UK-French operations targeting stateless and falsely flagged vessels signal a new phase of coordinated European enforcement"
LLOYDSLIST.COM In case anyone is wondering why tartan netting is strung across Ukraine's roads to protect travellers from Russian drone strikes then it's because Scotland donated 280 tonnes of old salmon farm nets.
Several European countries send nets from different industries, e.g. Netherlands from flower bulb farms, while Italy is now considering incentivising fishing companies to make donations.
Trawler nets, built to stand the rigours of the ocean floor, will stop the heavier 12kg Lancet drones travelling at 70mph.
Traditional nets made from hair are highly prized, so if anyone knows of an hirsute reader in Scotland who could contribute... 😉
"ROME, April 1 (Reuters) - Italian senators have proposed a plan to incentivise fishing companies that donate discarded nets to help shield Ukraine from Russian drone attacks, a document showed on Wednesday.
Ukraine has this year stepped up the installation of anti-drone nets over roads in frontline areas as it faces mass Russian drone attacks on hospitals, infrastructure and civilian traffic."
I haven't had a chance to read through these three Stefan Korshak posts yet,
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/mar-27-2026-day-1492c-continued
Traditional nets made from hair are highly prized, so if anyone knows of an hirsute reader in Scotland who could contribute...
I think it's his duty to do his bit, isn't it ? 🙂
Very interesting links thanks Timba.
The "reply" in the link is also a good read as well.
Wasn't sure where to post this, but seems Orban is looking to frame Ukraine to garner support ahead of the next election.
BBC News - Hungary alleges plot to blow up gas pipeline ahead of election
BBC.CO.UK BBC News - Hungary alleges plot to blow up gas pipeline ahead of election
Serbia's President Vucic said that it was "geopolitical games". It's strange that whatever the truth of the incident, the current advantage lies with PM Orban
An interesting opinion article on how declining European industry and its automotive sector are a good fit for scaling up the defence industry.
Rheinmetall is looking at VW's Osnabrück plant to build Lynx fighting vehicles and KNDS is looking at a railway rolling stock plant to produce tanks.
Romania has several Soviet-era plants designed to switch from civilian to military production easily and industry as a whole has the necessary expertise in logistics, supply networks and scalability.
It doesn't take much imagination to see the link between modern cars full of microchips and motors to drone manufacture for both land, sea and air.
Your Porsche wiper motor might have the same part number as a heavy drone lift motor 🙂
In diplo-speak "international partners" have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries.
If it is the US, then Ukraine is in a good position to extract immediate concessions that the WH can't later refuse. Ukraine is expecting a visit from ace negotiators Witkoff and Kushner this week.
I get the feeling that because Kyrylo Budanov believes that the Iran war will be over soon that "international partners" will be put in a diplomatic holding pattern.
The head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, confirmed that international partners have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries due to rising global energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported on Sunday, April 5.
Budanov revealed that Kyiv has been approached regarding the regular drone attacks, though he did not disclose which specific allies issued the plea. “I will answer this diplomatically: we are receiving some signals regarding this,” he said.
- Novoryssisk oil terminal/port attacked last night, hopefully taken offline. Not sure how many oil export terminals Russia has left!
In diplo-speak "international partners" have requested Ukraine suspend its airstrikes on Russian oil refineries.
If it is the US, then
- Novoryssisk oil terminal/port attacked last night, hopefully taken offline. Not sure how many oil export terminals Russia has left!
Saw that. Seems Zelensky has given his answer to an outrageous request that they stop their desperate existential fight. Just so Trumps ratings aren't harmed because 'mericans might have to pay a bit more to fill their cars up. I don't like paying more for petrol and everything else either. I blame Trump, not Zelensky though and I support his right to national self defence. Even if that exacerbates the energy crisis caused by the US. The absolute brass neck of that request if it was the US, is astonishing.
Especially astonishing when Trump is currently threatening to destroy all the Iranian oil infrastructure.
I know he's thick but how does the hypocrisy of those two positions not occur?
Ukraine is expecting a visit from ace negotiators Witkoff and Kushner this week.
Oi, this thread is supposed to be serious.
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
“Ukraine, please don’t play those cards you don’t have” DJT
APN notably talking about the options for Russia.
This is remarkable.
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
Nothing will happen coz Strait of Hormuz is many times more damaging to the world than the Ukraine war.
A few weaponry bits and pieces:
Ukraine's Fire Point, maker of the Flamingo missile amongst others, is looking at the development of a low-cost analogue to Patriot and plans to intercept its first ballistic missile next year. This is an ambitious target and will involve European companies with expertise in radar, targetting and comms.
"If we can decrease it to less than $1 million, it will be ... a game changer in air defence solutions," he said in an interview. "We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027."
Shtilierman declined to name the European companies involved in the discussions to develop the new system but said Fire Point is "deeply interested" in collaboration on radar, missile target-seeking and communications systems - areas where it lacks expertise.
European companies including Weibel, Hensoldt, SAAB and Thales have good radar solutions, he noted.
The BAE Systems Bofors Tridon Mk2, made in Sweden, has just been contracted for supply to Ukraine to combat slower aircraft ranging from drones to cruise missiles. It's a vehicle-mounted single 40 mm Bofors cannon firing programmable airburst ammunition that doesn't rely on a direct hit to down the aircraft. It can also be used to defend against land-based targets.
Ukraine has recently used the Swedish Saab Bofors Dynamics RBS-15 Gungnir (Odin's spear) anti-ship missile, possibly due to difficulties in producing their home-grown Neptune and Long Neptune missiles following Russian strikes on manufacturing plants. The RBS-15 is smaller and, dependent on models compared, has less range than the Neptune (the Long Neptune version has 3x the range of any RBS-15 variant).
Ukraine is struggling to either produce or source enough miniature jet engines for its drone and missile fleet. European producers are currently manufacturing at their limits (original reporting by Reuters, now widely sourced)
https://www.saab.com/products/the-rbs15-family
"President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Russian forces are currently concentrating their main military efforts near Oleksandrivsk and Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region."
US VP JD Vance criticises Europe for meddling in Hungary's elections as, without a trace of irony, he meddles in Hungary's elections (also spotted by caher in another thread)
Witkoff and Kushner, the Laurel and Hardy of world diplomacy. Really hope Zelensky puts both on show in his version of the oval office. The don't have the cards.
Nothing will happen coz Strait of Hormuz is many times more damaging to the world than the Ukraine war.
Nothing will happen coz President Zelensky is many times better as a person. The temptation must be strong though
Keep an eye on Alex Vindman
He's a retired US Army Lt. Col, former Director (Europe) of the US National Security Council and a key witness in the first impeachment of President Trump over the Ukraine/Biden/Trump scandal.
He also turned out to be the "smoking gun" that started the inquiry and is of Ukrainian heritage, born in Kyiv
He's running for Senator in Florida, which I'm sure will please Trump
ALEXVINDMAN.COM We're approaching the 11th April deadline for the ending of US sanctions relief in favour of Russia and a shaky ceasefire between the US and Iran has been negotiated.
President Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran.
US-led peace negotiations are also due this month in Kyiv (now postponed due to the recent ceasefire with Iran). I'm not holding my breath but, if applied, sanctions and tariffs would send a clear message, despite Russian exports to the US being at a low-level compared to 2021.
US VP JD Vance said yesterday that President Zelensky had made "scandalous" remarks about PM Orban of Hungary. In a breath-taking statement to media Vance said,
"It's completely scandalous," Vance said. "You should never have a foreign head of government... threatening the head of government of an allied nation."
UK SecDef John Healey said today that three Russian subs were detected in and around UK waters earlier this year and were surveilled for more than a month. Norway and the UK made it clear to the subs that they had been detected and they eventually left without obvious damage to infrastructure.
Healey said the Russian operation involved an Russian Akula class attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Moscow's Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research (GUGI).
"They are designed to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime, and sabotage it in conflict," Healey said.
After detecting the Russian vessels passing into international waters, Britain sent a frigate, a support tanker and a maritime patrol aircraft to monitor their movements.
UNITED24MEDIA.COM That's brilliant, in the most literal sense. Wish they could do something similar to the Kerch bridges.
How the **** do the Russians not spot 30 50kg drone deliveries though? That's going to be a massive aircraft and pretty noisy too, 'low acoustic signature ' being a relative term to other enormous drones I'm sure.
How the **** do the Russians not spot 30 50kg drone deliveries though?
Maybe disguised in Amazon boxes. The operators must have laughed their socks off when that lot went bang!
I watched a YouTube video on variable pitch rotor quad drones (longer, slower, wider blades with motors geared down for torque rather than speed) and this seems to make the noise significantly less than the conventoinal death-whine of the quads that are used with RPGs. I could see how using these at a busy time or when people were "busy" with other things could slip by unnoticed.
Who knew? Ukraine supplies Europe's wind farms with specialised steel tubes. Both the UK and French projects should be running by winter 2026-2027,
"Ukrainian industrial giant Interpipe, a leading global exporter and manufacturer of seamless pipes, produced and shipped nearly 2,500 tons of specialized steel pipes for an offshore 1.4 GWh wind farm project in the North Sea off the UK coast, 69 kilometers from Suffolk."
"According to the company’s website, Interpipe also shipped nearly 250 tons of seamless pipes for another offshore wind project located near Normandy, France. It involves 62 wind turbines."
It's widely reported that Ukraine's existing income from agriculture is at further risk because of the war with Iran.
It was already under strain because Russia seized stored grain and farmland in the Donbas region when it invaded, followed up by mined agricultural land and attacks on Ukraine's storage and loading facilities on the Black Sea coast.
The increased cost of fertiliser and fuel is hitting farmers badly.
Economically and militarily Russia seems to be stretched, while the popularity of the state is falling in both official and unofficial polling.
Russia is pouring its military efforts into pushing west from the area around Hulyaipole towards Zaporizhia City while its defence of other southern areas where Ukraine is making incremental advances aren't getting reinforcements.
Despite this, and reportedly deploying reserve forces to the push west, Russia isn't making significant advances.
The sanctions relief that Russia briefly enjoyed finished today, unless President Trump extends the relief, and in Hungary it's looking like the leadership will change which could free the EU $90bn loan up.
That will also depend on the actions of Hungary's allies within the EU; in March, PM Fico of Slovakia threatened to block the loan if PM Orban was voted out and the Druzhba pipeline was still closed.
An interesting hint of peace from Ukraine's Kyrylo Budanov, former head of military intelligence and current head of the Presidential Office,
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s head of the Presidential Office and the country’s key negotiator, said the war with Russia may not last much longer, expressing optimism that ongoing talks could soon lead to a settlement.
“They all understand the war needs to end. That’s why they are negotiating,” Budanov said in an interview to Bloomberg, published on Friday, April 10. “I don’t think it will be long.”
Different messaging is coming from President Zelensky who believes that President Putin will lean further into the war.
Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the US according to "sources", but Russia denies that it signifies peace talks.
Media sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73681
US Senators Jeanne Shaheen (Dem) and Thom Tillis (Rep) introduced the bipartisan acronym BLOCK PUTIN Act, or as it's known on Sundays "Barring Leverage and Obstruction that Contributes to Kremlin Profits Undermining Transatlantic Interests and NATO Act".
This seeks to call the US admin and PM Orban out for their stance on the agreed EU $90bn loan and encouraging trade supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's specific to Hungary, which could be amended to include others should the bill come anywhere near to passing into law,
“When the rest of Europe is rightfully weaning off Russian energy, Hungary has doubled down,” said Ranking Member Shaheen ("Ranking" refers to her position as most senior opposition member of a Senate Committee).
“Hungary’s payments for Russian oil and gas to the tune of billions of euros has buoyed Putin’s finances and bolstered Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. That’s why I’m proud to introduce the bipartisan BLOCK PUTIN Act, which will hold senior Hungarian government officials accountable for obstructing European assistance to Ukraine and for facilitating Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian energy past the required EU phase out. It is beyond belief that Vice President Vance is reportedly planning on visiting Hungary to provide an electoral boost to a corrupt government that continues to help fund Russia’s war machine. If we want this war in Ukraine to end, the Trump Administration needs to be consistent in holding our Allies to the same standards; no one, especially Viktor Orban, should get a free pass.”
Separately, the Kyiv Post fact checks Vance in Hungary
The UK has come in for criticism about its lack of action on Russian shadow fleet tankers. Not a single one has been detained in the fortnight since PM Starmer upped the enforcement ante, and hundreds have sailed past the UK since the original announcement in June 2025,
"According to the report, the Attorney General for England and Wales, Lord Richard Hermer, had provided legal counsel on how these tankers could be stopped within British territorial waters to prevent the delivery of sanctioned oil to Russia’s allies. His recommendations suggested that special forces and officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) could board the vessels."
Has the Russian invasion and subsequent battles reshaped warfare away from just simply more = better.
It now appears just having more tanks and APC vehicles than your enemy , with the skills to use them gave you a huge advantage
Now, a team of say 12 men with an array of drones from ,hypothetically speaking, A drone mother ship with loitering , thermal , NV and attack capabilty ( mini drones ) ,plus a load of larger drones with say a 10kg payload and a lot of smaller drone with say a 2kg payload will hinder a large attack
This team could sit in a prepared position and hold off a large number of tanks , IFV and infantry with low risk. A direct hit from a heavy bomb or missile would destroy them, if you can locate them electronically. With alot of drones at their disposal stopping the foot soldiers by direct hits or dropping grenades from height with small drones , then larger suicide drones take on the mbt / ifv .
I dont know how you would avoid huge casualities if old school tactics were used. Ground based drones with machine guns , or remote operated dug in machine gun pits via optical cable . Coupled with manpads means the need for manpower and vehicles has been replaced by drone and anti drone tech , and all tactics revised and procurement changed as the requirements for tanks / helos / APC's has basically been nulified and the need for autonomous remote controlled drones of varying sizes is now critical.
unless the enemy can jam your drones
It's just an evolutionary extension of the basic point of contact. Early on advantages in the development may benefit the little guy like Ukraine over the far bigger Russia .. but not forever.
The risk is being left behind; from being blinkered to how things was fought/done before.
Maybe biased in my opinion here, but, I feel the USA are at bigger risk of being left behind because their defense industry is focused on skimming as much money as possible from defence .. recently an article explained how the US military was advised to take lessons from Ukraine regarding high numbers of cheap easy to produce drones .. yet as of 2026 continued to go forward with the hugely expensive switchblade 600 at a cost of around £125k each.
*Even the US copy of the Shahid drone doubled in price
Interesting ideas, but if both sides are employing the same tactics, they it just becomes a drone battle with all the human combatants miles away.
Once drone superiority has been established infantry still needed to secure territory otherwise what is the point?
It does 'democratise' war to a degree. It lowers the entry point to having some kind of military effectiveness. It also allows smaller states to nullify (to a degree) some of the costly, high tech advantages that larger militaries once had. Also, as Ukraine have shown, it can make predatory acquisition of a smaller country's territory extremely costly in lives and equipment, no matter how big the agressor's military inventory is. I'm sure China and Taiwan are taking big lessons from this.
All of this is probably temporary, tactics and technology will evolve and probably put effective high tech counter drone technology back in the hands of larger wealthier countries.
Once drone superiority has been established
Hard to achieve that currently, when a bottomless pit of cottage-industry, 3D printed drones are available*, cheap enough to be used against individual infantrymen. Until some new disruptive technology comes along. At least in the same sense as conventional "air superiority" when expensive assets like fast jets, AWACs and missile AD systems are very finite.
*Ukraine is estimated to have manufactured or procured 4 million drones in 2025, with a forecast of 7 million for this year.
I believe, but am not certain, that the advantage has always been with the insurgents in an invasion.
I believe, but am not certain, that the advantage has always been with the insurgents in an invasion.
Depends on several things
1)How brutal the invaders are willing to be.
2)What the invaders are willing to give.
3)Were the people previously in charge ****s?
4)Is anyone willing to supply arms and training to the insurgents. Especially in useful stuff like explosives and electrical gear. At least until it stops being an insurgency and starts being a rebellion/civil war.
Its best if the action to 3 is yes to 2)quite a lot and 1)somewhat but in a controlled manner.
It also works with 1)extremely for the entire province/state and 2)slightly however nowadays a leader having commemorative wall art set up showing them having lunch with a rebel kings head hanging in the trees nearby might be somewhat frowned on.
Most good Empire builders from the Romans to the British worked on finding some annoyed second cousin to the current king so they would come in as friends helping out an internal rebellion.
The glorious revolution is good example of this. In most of the UK its remembered as a "glorious" revolution" but in Northern Ireland (depending on the constituency) its a bit more complicated and the Dutch view of it is also rather different.
I think the latter view does seem more accurate. It was an invasion where the invader was willing to make a bunch of compromises to minimise conflict but still meet their key objectives namely removing a threat and also getting a ton of cash.
All of this is probably temporary, tactics and technology will evolve and probably put effective high tech counter drone technology back in the hands of larger wealthier countries.
Exactly this. It's an evolving scenario, Ukraine has used youth to out-think the old guard in Russia
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MY.RUSI.ORG
An article by Fabian Hoffman, a Doctoral Research Fellow at Oslo Uni specialising in missile technology, nuclear strategy, and European defence.
Ukraine's Deep-Strike Drone Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure
How Ukraine is systematically degrading Russian energy export capacity — and what it means for the war,
"Independent verification of specific damage figures remains difficult. That said, the intensity and success of Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign have very likely reached levels not seen since the start of the war."
"The success of Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign is not accidental. It reflects sustained planning and shaping efforts, compounded by industrial bottlenecks on the Russian side."
"The cumulative effects of these constraints are real, bearing meaningfully on Russia’s budget and planning even if they fall short of collapsing its capacity to wage war. In this regard, the analogy to the Allied strategic bombing campaign against the Nazi German war economy in World War II, which I have drawn previously, remains as valid as ever.
SUBSTACK.COM Quantity still matters - it’s just drone quantity now. For instance Ukraine now launches more long range drones per night than Russia.
Hopefully the change of regime in Hungary means Ukraine will get the 90 billion EU loan now.
Indeed.
I also think that everyone except USA is planning a future *without* USA. That includes Russia.
I also think that everyone except USA is planning a future *without* USA. That includes Russia.
We are watching the US hegemony and global dominance collapse in real time. The shuffle for positioning in a new multi polar world is going to be messy and probably violent. As per the apocryphal curse, we live in interesting times.
The shuffle for positioning in a new multi polar world is going to be messy and probably violent.
I'm reminded of comments along the lines of "it can't be worse than what we've had". Which obviously it can be, and much much worse.
Hopefully not mind you. Although I am on balance expecting something quite severe before the war in Ukraine ends.
The shuffle for positioning in a new multi polar world is going to be messy and probably violent.
Looking at Taiwan, Korea's, some of North Africa....and of course let us not forget that the nutter in the Kremlin or White House could choose to invade the Vatican City or Finland at any time
Quantity still matters - it’s just drone quantity now. For instance Ukraine now launches more long range drones per night than Russia.
There’s quite a long post here from Kyiv Post, which includes an entertaining piece near the end detailing a very creative approach to using drones for demolishing large bridges, the bridge over the Konka River.
Useful video from APN on integrating Ukraine into European defence in future if (when) the US withdraws from NATO. It points out things which the good folk on here probably already know, but the wider public may not due to warped press reporting. Russia has been brought to a stalemate not because they are weak, they have the biggest army in Europe, but because Ukraine is strong. Ukraine has the second largest army in Europe, and it is considerably larger than all of its European neighbours. The concept that we are propping up a weak Ukraine with handouts, which may have had some truth at the start of the war is now wrong. Not just the size, battle experience and determination of their 900,000 strong military, but their burgeoning and innovative defence industry.
In a future Europe without US involvement, it will be essential to have Ukraine fully integrated into European defence. Not as a bit part, making up the numbers, but as the most capable and effective element when it comes to standing up to Russia. He also explains how Ukraine's geography would make it much more difficult for Russia to attack the Baltic states in future. He suggests (as we have on here) that NATO membership is a non starter, but a very similar European defensive alliance, with Ukraine fully integrated is needed.
So nothing new or startling for the well informed, but a useful summary.
A JEF for central Europe perhaps
JEF is perhaps a useful framework for a larger organisation. It won't be without problems of course. The larger it is, the more unwieldy and slow to react and the more potential for political infighting. JEF currently, without the likes of France and Germany has the potential to be agile and responsive but lacks the numbers, sustainability and range of capability a larger European force would bring. Another advantage of JEF, is that it is made up of very motivated partners with "skin in the game". Those closest to an aggressive Russia with the most to lose in a Russian attack. Would a much larger organisation with the likes of Spain and Italy in it, be so willing to react forcefully to a Russian incursion in (for example) the Baltics? A future version of JEF with Ukraine and Poland in it could be very effective, but Germany and France will have to have a role somehow too. Lots of questions for the diplomats and defence planners to tussle with in future!
I was thinking very specifically of an equivalent to JEF in central Europe rather than an expansion of JEF to central Europe.
OK. Interesting, which countries would you see being members?
Not central European, but
LISBON, April 15 (Reuters) - Portugal is against the creation of a separate European army and instead backs strengthening and modernising its armed forces within the U.S.-led NATO alliance, the country's defence minister said, contrasting with neighbouring Spain's position.
Various open sources seem to indicate that recruitment into the Russian military is slowing in Q1 2026 as compared to Q1 2025. The different sources are discussed at greater length in the full articles. Ukraine is actively targetting a greater number of Russian casualties than are recruited and a greater number of casualties than in any previous year.
If these numbers are accurate then Russia will be facing the politically unpalatable choice of mobilisation of further reserve forces to Ukraine. The unpalatability can be judged by the fact that mass mobilisation has been resisted since 2022 and a new law that was added to the statute books in October 2025. This allowed Russian reserve forces to be deployed outside Russia with minimal training and without a declaration of either "mobilisation" or "war", i.e. a mobilisation that isn't called mobilisation in the hope that the populace won't protest as much.
Such a mobilisation would likely be smaller and ongoing, rather than en masse, which is important in the run up to September's elections. A high turn-out in elections and a semblance of democracy is necessary to Russians.
"German Institute for International and Security Affairs economist Janis Kluge assessed on April 12 based on an analysis of the budgets of Russian federal subjects that Russian forces recruited between 800 and 1,000 soldiers a day in the first quarter of 2026 (between January 1 and March 31, 2026), compared to 1,000 to 1,200 a day in the first quarter of 2025, a 20 percent decrease year-over-year."
Russia has been transferring small numbers of troops from more specialised units to frontline infantry positions. Units that aren't as called upon, e.g. tank battalions, have been reportedly losing a soldier a week transferred to support either infantry or drone operations. This will impact mechanised numbers should Russian forces ever be in a position to advance through the Dnipro Lowlands, which isn't looking likely to date.
"The Russian military command is reportedly employing servicemembers of tank battalions as infantry replacements. A Russian milblogger amplified on April 14 a letter reportedly from a subscriber that claims that the tank battalion of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) almost never uses tanks in combat and that the Russian military command instead takes two soldiers from each battalion’s company every two to three weeks to support infantry assaults and drone operators."
Ukraine's side of the recruitment shortfall has involved discussions on Ukrainian men seeking asylum in Europe having left Ukraine illegally. This has been raised most recently with Germany at the highest level, between President Zelensky and Chancellor Merz, during the signing of several mutual co-operation agreements yesterday.
Sources:
Russian forces appear to be concentrating on taking ground towards the so-called "fortress belt" cities, rather than further south where its forces are losing control over contested areas.
The linked article is a useful breakdown of the fortress belt with a variety of maps separately illustrating population density and urban development (including land use), water features, elevation and slope, and prepared defensive fortifications.
It underlines why the cities of the fortress belt have been chosen for the defence of Ukraine and why Russia is unlikely to capture much this year, despite being on the back doorstep of the southern-most city of Kostyantynivka. The cities are all industrial centres and have large defensible buildings, although at a quick look they don't appear to have much mining infrastructure to take advantage of for logistics storage and shelter.
Russian forces have also increased pressure in the north around Sumy, which is close to the border with Russia.
"The Ukrainian 14th Army Corps (AC) reported on April 13 that Ukrainian forces moved to new prepared positions near Myropilske (east of Sumy City on the international border) due to “intensive combat operations” and Russian numerical superiority. Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on April 14 that Russian forces advanced near Myropilske. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on April 10 that Russian forces seized Myropilske."
US sanctions on Russian oil are back in force. The agreement has naturally lapsed without renewal, which is combined with continuing infrastructure problems at Russian ports.
The largest tankers can't get in to Novorossiysk and only one smaller crude berth and a couple of petroleum berths are available,
"Oil exports from Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest Black Sea port, remain limited after two of the terminal’s largest berths failed to resume operations following Ukrainian drone attacks last week, Bloomberg reports."
