But dolphins 🤷♂️
Sobering read
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152?t=bSbMTECIK4P5DYANr4fhcQ&s=19
@funkrodent It isn't the arch bridge that has been damaged it's part of the "slab on column" construction on the approach to the arch bridge. Also where the road deck is ramped down so it isn't far above sea level, an ideal location for explosives placed below.
I don't think Ukraine would want to destroy the arch bridge as that would potentially block the shipping route from Mariupol out to the Black Sea which I think they would want to leave viable.
I wonder if that unmanned vessel near Sevastopol was supposed to be under the second carriageway of the bridge.
It was almost certainly a missile attack. Any boat trying to get near the bridge would have been sunk.
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1578739145421168642
Sobering read
An utter waste if human life and our planets resources, for absolutely no gain.
It was almost certainly a missile attack. Any boat trying to get near the bridge would have been sunk
Quite possibly but That guy saying he can see the explosion starting there is being debunked in the replies
https://twitter.com/rtombs/status/1578741590784294912?t=OlsMbZGtlIUGJO_SAeKh-Q&s=19
Missile would be most likely but those underwater drones don't seem an impossibility
I wonder if that unmanned vessel near Sevastopol was supposed to be under the second carriageway of the bridge.
Ah my mistake, that one was found back in September. I'm still tending towards an explosion from below.
But dolphins 🤷♂️
Dolphins have been used by militaries since the Vietnam war.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/whales/etc/navycron.html
No idea what did for the bridge
Rumours a while back this made it into service
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-have-a-stash-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles
Seems off topic today, but was shown this earlier that some might want to read
A fairly audacious sting operation conducted by Ukraine in Belarus. Going back a year or two.
Careless smoking 🚬
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1578766501284573184?t=GoisIelfU-VFTh2zaCAAlw&s=19
Ukrainians seem to be Degrading Russian logistics and resupply lines while their own troops rest & regroup after big advances .
Another week or 2? Before Ukrainians star making advances again into increasingly undersupplied & demoralised Russian lines
I've just turned on TV.
Channel 5 is showing "A bridge too far".
😆
This article from The Drive has a lot of the video links, including the one my previous screenshot is from. There’s some great trolling going on there as well!
Sabotage was to blame for the downing of Germany’s rail network on Saturday, the country’s train operator said, after vital communications cables were cut in a “targeted and malicious action”.
Vlad's minions are busy boys. Germans calling for coordinated NATO response to protect critical infrastructure..
EDIT - though I should add that it is not proven that external actors are responsible. Very convenient timing though.
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1578772731218526209?t=mdLagSwCDYx5yi2PBr-KNg&s=19
More rumouring from a different quarter
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578800235543146496?t=zMz5r7PgM9l9tZYcNr3UpQ&s=19
^^^or some real 4d chess from Xi? Encouraging his mate to do something incredibly stupid, then sweeping in to pick up the pieces.
China has nothing to gain from a nuclear conflict. They want to own the world not destroy it.
CountZero
Full MemberThis article from The Drive has a lot of the video links, including the one my previous screenshot is from. There’s some great trolling going on there as well!
OK, I know they've had some good coverage but it still seems completely weird that it's the drive. I'm always expecting Matt Farah wearing ridiculous sunglasses, driving an MX5 while talking about the war
Another week or 2? Before Ukrainians star making advances again into increasingly undersupplied & demoralised Russian lines
Could be, but why waste your own troops when you can basically starve them out/let them run out of supplies/ammo/heating over the cold cold winter...
Because momentum.
Could be, but why waste your own troops when you can basically starve them out/let them run out of supplies/ammo/heating over the cold cold winter…
Because cold,hungry undisciplined troops could exact a nasty revenge on the civilian population.
Another week or 2?
You don't want to rush in and over extend, get isolated etc. Consolidate your position and soften the opposition first.
Regroup, degrade, advance.
Or could just be mind games, say two weeks, advance in one.
Because momentum.
No one cares about that weird faction of the labour party any more 😉
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
There was animosity during Stalin's rule between the security services and the red army. Ultimately the army prevailed, Beria was executed.
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
General Sergei Surovikin is now commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a rumour.
He has a reputation for inviting other officers in for a chat that doesn't end well and I foresee senior Russians texting the Ukrainian helpline
Germans calling for coordinated NATO response to protect critical infrastructure
Is that the NATO that Germany haven't contributed to fully, defending Germany against cable thieves?
It'll be nothing to do with being seen to act strongly on the eve of elections in Lower Saxony where the Green Party has polled double the Green's previous share of the vote.
Network Rail would need a NATO hotline
Network Rail would need a NATO hotline
Network Rail need a rocket up the arse, but we digress....
Because momentum.
No one cares about that weird faction of the labour party any more
Boy,the political threads are gonna blow your mind
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
General Sergei Surovikin is now commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a rumour.
He has a reputation for inviting other officers in for a chat that doesn’t end well and I foresee senior Russians texting the Ukrainian helpline
When I read that first bit last night, I was kinda hoping it might be the start of Putin lining up his scapegoats to use as an off ramp but now I have my doubts 🙁
@thols2 so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn't got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Because if it wasn't coincidence then that's a hell of a risky plan to rely on cascading to a passing train.
so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn’t got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
It's a fair point, the rail bridge was the real strategic priority.
Could it be plausible deniability?
Then again that would entail knowing the truck was going to be there too..
Could be they wanted to get the road first and then follow up with the rail. Spread the impact for propaganda purposes?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Two missiles? Where does it say two? Hardly wasted, when in one strike it destroyed the road span and seriously degraded the rail span. Having done it once, all that needs to be done is let Russia spend time and money and resources repairing it, then lob another missile or two at it and wreak havoc all over again.
so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn’t got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Because if it wasn’t coincidence then that’s a hell of a risky plan to rely on cascading to a passing train.
1. Sometimes coincidences do happen, so it's not impossible.
2. Ukraine will probably have U.S. reconnaissance satellites, human observers on the ground, and drones watching the bridge. It's quite possible they timed the strike to hit when they observed a fuel train.
3. We don't know how many missiles they fired. There is a hole in the roadway that looks like a missile punched through with a delay fuse to explode under the deck and that blew the deck off the foundations. The rail bridge seems to have a different structure so it's possible that it was also struck by a different missile, but the damage isn't obvious because of the burning fuel train. Or they may have used an air burst fuse to set fire to the fuel train. We just don't know.
Still think its a blast from underneath the bridge.
Takes out one of the Y shaped support sections. Bridge lifts with the concussion blast wave. Comes back down onto thin air. RHS support box is still there, so roadway slithets sideways into the water.
The fuel trucks go up seconds later as shrapnel blows them open
Unmanned drone boat and satellite look down from space to coordinate the train happening to be there
Is that the NATO that Germany haven’t contributed to fully
What does that mean exactly? Do you mean they haven’t been spending as much on defence as the UK and USA would like? Remember, for historic reasons, Germany have been claiming to be spending on “defence” only, and pressure on them not to spend on “attack” capabilities has been long standing. And not all the higher spend of UK and USA is on capabilities aimed at fulfilling NATO commitments… especially true of the USA. The lower budget of German military is arguably more focused on capabilities that can be used to help defend other NATO states, especially those close to Russia geographically.
Depends on how you work the number.
Dantsw - China don't want any long war, period. They have a big internal problem unwinding poisonous debt from their internal housing/building projects, and large companies going bust. If/as is Putin is causing a world recession that impacts them as it's harder to get thro' this without pain, and the internal stability of China via economics. They'd be 'ok' with a swift takeover, but this is dragging on too long already, and they're unlikely to be impressed
Yeah good point, a good portion of they money we're now having to spend on bills and mortgage payments would have gone to China for manufactured stuff.
Lots of people very certain that it was or wasn't a truck/boat/missile/careless smoking
The sections underneath the water are the bits that would really help confirm!
If it was ACTAMS then max range is 190 miles
That'd be just about reachable from Ukrainian front line
Speed of missile is 2685 mph
So that's 4 minutes from firing to hit target, either excellent timing (with real time targeting via satellite- possible?, or spotters in area ) or just very lucky to get the fuel train at that point (how well do Russian trains run to schedule -you wouldn't want to risk it targeting my morning commute, always late!)
Wonder how much Russia really knows or whether they are speculating too , which makes it a headache for them defending not being 100% certain what caused it
Occam's razor says lowest tech option, so Truck bomb?!
Both governments seem to confirm that
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1579026254887809024?t=JlJOp3K4yiMtZkzm5OKu1Q&s=19
But then there are reasons for both sides to downplay the sophistication of the attack
Also truck bomb raises question of whether suicide bomb or driver was unaware & triggered remotely, in which case huge fluke to cross at same time of train, if it was truck then driver must have known
Is that the NATO that Germany haven’t contributed to fully, defending Germany against cable thieves?
What does that mean exactly? Do you mean they haven’t been spending as much on defence as the UK and USA would like?
I'm aware that NATO contributions are open to political and accounting debate, however the fact is that 2% of GDP was agreed in 2002, it was agreed again in 2006, again in 2014 and again when Trump threatened to withdraw in 2020 if countries didn't contribute as agreed.
In June 2022 Chancellor Scholtz finally announced a €100bn increase in the military budget and to meet the 2% target. To answer your points:
Germany hadn't honoured the 2% NATO agreement for a decade until his promise a few weeks ago. We'll see how that pans out in reality
It isn't what the US and UK want necessarily, it was a NATO agreement
I'm not sure how you have a defensive capability, within the bounds of current tech, without an attacking capability. An example is the Ukraine and its use of western weapons, turning them from defence to offence
I've seen it suggested that trains often halt there for some time. If that's the case then split-second timing wouldn't be required.
If it was ACTAMS then max range is 190 miles
As I understand those missiles, that's the officially stated range for fully guided firing. The true maximum range will vary a bit depending on conditions. For example, if you fire it from the top of a mountain, the range will be increased. They can actually be fired further than the guided range, but once the fuel runs out, they become an unguided ballistic missile and will drift further off target the further they travel.
