Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!😐
I suspect civilian areas across Ukraine are going to take a beating now.
I doubt that was caused by careless smoking. I'd say more likely it was an exploding cigar.
Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!😐
Probably a lot like a "Downfall" video 😂😂😂
If this was a suicide attack, that feels like quite an ideological change in current proceedings.
Dodgy construction making it vulnerable at joints to a bit of encouragement from UA special forces?
Doesnt always have to be dodgy construction although I doubt they built it with this in mind, built in demolition points were a thing for cold war bridges I believe.
This covered bridge — a picturesque tourist attraction in the Alpine nation — contained hundreds of pounds of TNT until October.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/why-was-switzerlands-bad-sackingen-bridge-packed-tnt-n285051
I dont really believe that theyd have built demolition points into the Kerch Bridge.
If this was a suicide attack, that feels like quite an ideological change in current proceedings.
"IF" it was, I dont think its going to be a major ideological change in the way we've come to think about those.
Can you imagine being the person that tells Putin this has happened??!
Not a problem. I am please to tell you glorious leader that the people of the Crimea spontaneously decided to hold a fireworks display to celebrate your birthday which has resulted in some minor traffic disruption.
Plus with the length of the table by the time the sound waves reach him you could have sodded off and let the next messenger take the blame.
Whatever the cause, this just really changed things.
The only way in for food and supplies from or retreat to the motherland is either foot and boat.
Or a long drive along the coast. Which after this week is within range of Ukrainian weapons.
Well that's certainly a game changer. As demonstrated in the most excellent thread linked to below, the construction methods of the bridge made it vulnerable to the right type of targeted attack.
The critical nature of the bridge for Russian logistics is clearly explained too. In a word Vlad is now f###ed. Proper f##ked.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572389840007892992.html
Wow
Some sort of massive truck bomb?
Agree suicide bomb would be a huge change of tactics
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578616783572852737?t=BNX9egXAHpYsyQ5PDG-vYQ&s=19
find it amazing footage from the security cameras is finding its way onto twitter. if it wasn't that truck bomb, that driver had some really bad luck. huge explosion too.
Boat underneath rail bridge? They must have known when the fuel train would be crossing
find it amazing footage from the security cameras is finding its way onto twitter.
In corrupt regimes everything can be bought
This has been done by manually placed charges. One on the railway triggered by a passing train, designed to ignite the fuel train. This was set up to trigger similar charges on the adjacent road bridge, with two timed charges there. First to lift the road section up of its bearers, second to displace the road section horizontally while it is off its bearers, so within milliseconds of the first charge.
The other option for the road bridge would be a shaped charge but the photographs clearly show the road bridge deck as being displaced outwards.
If this was a truck bomb or missile strike there would be debris visible and the mass of explosive required to collapse a RC bridge deck would be unfeasibly large.
Doubt it's a truck bomb, would need percussive force to penetrate into the superstructure.
Possibly the ATACMS missiles the Russians have been squeaking about. Each one of these weighs over a ton, hits the target at approximately Mach4 velocity and has a payload of 200lb of high explosive. The area of the bridge struck is of tied arch construction, so a couple of these is going to mean goodnight Vlad.
As an extra bonus nobody is going to be that bothered where (or which) Oleksandrivka is now..
EDIT - speculation of course. Waverider may well (almost certainly does) know more about this than me!
I think a boat may be more likely. A truck would struggle to carry enough explosives for such a big bang.
You could a lot more in a boat/barge.
One of these recently washed up in the black sea
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1573193208913620992?t=ECbx4y9pXYDX-hfhnGxAaA&s=19
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1572612313324077057?t=7HbZ1URfZOCLEMgOz6ky3w&s=19
I'll post link to thread on the bridge again as already disappeared on previous page! Really informative about critical nature of the bridge for the Russians
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572389840007892992.html
still one carriageway standing it seems. not a total loss
Russia's least favourite episode of The Slo Mo Guys ever
Makes you wonder if one side been deliberatly left standing to give a road home for any troops that decide it's time to make a hasty exit?
Looks like Ukraine had a busy night, another target was hit.
Meanwhile, a cargo train in Ilovaisk in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region was hit by a “powerful explosion” Saturday morning, according to the adviser to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andrushenko.
“Not only Crimea. Not only fuel tanks. There is also a cargo train in Ilovaisk. Locals report a rather powerful explosion and subsequent detonation at night. The occupiers now have big problems with supplies from both sides,” Andrushenko said.
That's a good point - hard to move supplies against another civilian exodus too.
Can't move the conscripts, T62s &;unguided missiles to the front lines without rail
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1578663007546023936?t=EhUVsknN4adBinHXToPt8A&s=19
Strongly suspect taking out the rail link was the point, the road damage incidental.
It all comes down to the structural damage to that rail span, as it’s still standing.
As with the Moskva, commemorative stamps already issued!
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1578667659763232768?t=9yX31VbJSSv29gYf7Ulkow&s=19
As with the Moskva, commemorative stamps already issued
Amazing!
If trolling was an Olympic event, Ukraine would have the gold medal nailed on 😂
.
Looks like we can put all that debate about how it happened to bed..
If trolling was an Olympic event, Ukraine would have the gold medal nailed on 😂
I have to say the commemorative stamps and yesterday's cake are a new standard in trolling at all levels.
Along with the other railway, this seems a very timely and thought through action. I await the next few days as Ukraine had now proved that 'pauses' are deliberate, and strikes on targets are carefully targeted, strategically planned and orchestrated to time. I fully expect a significant move - perhaps to cut to the southern coast/Sea of Azov and basically leave Russian troops to walk home with no heavy equipment.
They seem to be following my plan, so, advance to Melitopol next 😉👍
And so the Russian response is again predictable and deplorable.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1578714111973773312?t=wBUhXsYTlnKzDchzN58rPw&s=19
Substack blog from two Im not familiar with, but claims to have made contacts with a number of Russian 'elites' to gauge opinion from inside the tent at that level.
The expectation is of a long war, and in some quarters further escalation. Although there are immediate comments giving examples where the tendency to always escalate didnt happen.
https://faridaily.substack.com/p/putin-always-chooses-escalation
Farida has worked for Meduza BBC, Russia, RBC, and currently has stuff publised in the Telegraph and Moscow Times.
Maxim has stuff in the Moscow Times, Forbes RBC
Picked this up via Max Seddon.
yep. been predicting the power station is the most likely target. cause an accident. more denialable than a tactical nuke. similar outcome
I think a boat may be more likely. A truck would struggle to carry enough explosives for such a big bang.
You could a lot more in a boat/barge.
There is some evidence that it may have been a boat bomb. There’s footage from CCTV showing the truck driving over the bridge, and at the same time there’s what looks very much like the bow wave of a boat coming out from under the bridge span then there’s a massive explosion. The truck theory implies a suicide bomber, which doesn’t seem likely, but a boat drone loaded with a couple of hundred kilos of HE is perfectly doable.
Here’s a grab of the moment the truck drives over the bridge, I’ve added a marker around the bow of the possible/likely boat as it appears, a second or two before the explosion.
