all it needs is one to say yes
Generals don't normally push the buttons, that falls to subordinate ranks who have form for not doing as ordered.
where does it end?
So you're willing to risk nuclear war and the lives of billions, your own life and those of everyone you know to uphold a principle? The obvious solution to this is some form of agreement between the two sides which will de-escalate the nuclear threat. Humiliating Putin and pounding the Russians into the dirt doesn't make nuclear war less likely, it massively increases the chances of it happening.
No one is suggesting he should be able to 'get away with whatever he wants', or that we shouldn't stand up to him, but expecting him to get away with nothing only makes the situation more dangerous. Where are the sensible heads in this? Seems like both sides are so entrenched that they would rather we bring about the end of the world than back down and swallow their pride. It's madness.
So you’re willing to risk nuclear war and the lives of billions
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Quite
Giving in to nuclear threats also has that risk.
Everything has a risk. Seems pretty obvious to me that pursuing the total defeat and humiliation of Putin carries far more risk than seeking some sort of compromise. If it turns out he is batshit mental and blows the world up, would we feel better that we didn't give in to him? 😕
The obvious solution to this is some form of agreement between the two sides which will de-escalate the nuclear threat.
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines? If Putin is allowed more gains in Ukraine, before long he will be back for more.
Unfortunately using force is the only type of negotiation that Putin listens to.
If hes batshit mental enough, he'll invade the rest of Ukraine/Poland/Baltics.
By which point hell also think he can get away with it.
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines? If Putin is allowed more gains in Ukraine, before long he will be back for more.
This is it in a nutshell. He has to be stopped, with force, or he'll keep on invading. There is no third option
Seems pretty obvious to me that pursuing the total defeat and humiliation of Putin carries far more risk than seeking some sort of compromise
We compromised when he annexed Crimea and Donbas, and that's how we got here. Appeasement does not work
So what should Ukraine agree to? Pre 2022 lines, pre 2014 lines?
Ive honestly no idea.
Id always guessed at status quo ante bellum. But the attitudes of quite a few east Europeans I know personally and follow online are pretty resolute in wanting to see Russia pushed oit entirely.
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
He has to be stopped, with force, or he’ll keep on invading. There is no third option
So you're resigned to nuclear war then? Do you even understand what you're saying?
Everything has a risk
It does, but giving in to Nuclear blackmail doesnt reduce it. It may even increase it as it creates the precedent.
And thats a genie that goes far beyond Ukraine.
I think what Dazh is saying is that Putin and Russia might need an off ramp or things could get even worse.
Call that appeasement if you wish but it's one of the three options, the other two being death or glory.
It does, but giving in to Nuclear blackmail doesnt reduce it. It may even increase it as it creates the precedent.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you're willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
Call that appeasement if you wish but it’s one of the three options, the other two being death or glory.
No it's two options. Compromise or death. There is no option where Putin can be totally defeated without a war with the west. I suppose there's a small chance that a nato vs Russia war could remain non-nuclear, or at the very least a tactical nuclear war rather than a global exchange, but really who seriously thinks that would happen? Once the genie is out of the bottle we know where it will end.
No it doesnt guarantee it
No one is looking for total defeat, that would involve going to Moscow
It doesn't matter what I accept, id rather they didnt exist at all. Frankly, id hope for a negotiated settlement but i simply do not know where that would be, and how to ensure a lasting peace.
Are you willing to accept nuclear armageddon that willl result from giving in to nuclear blackmail?
@dazh - so what’s this compromise then - Ukraine give some territory to Russia and they just go away?
I think what Dazh is saying is that Putin and Russia might need an off ramp or things could get even worse.
That off ramp would presumably mean Russia hanging onto some of its gains since February wouldn't it?
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
Memories of Soviet occupation.
There is no option where Putin can be totally defeated without a war with the west.
This smacks of Putin's rhetoric early in the conflict about the possibility of Russia ceasing to exist. Has anyone in the West suggested that? Just get back to your own country Vlad and stop being a dick. No-one wants to invade or destroy Russia.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you’re willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
Thankfully that choice is not up to us on stw forum, it’s for Ukraine to decide, and for you to argue against their wishes to regain control and ownership of the entire country to pre 2014 is rather pathetic
I think we are banking on someone saying no to him when he gives the order.
Hmm.
Might happen in the West, if they ignore an order to launch when Russia does then no one will be any the wiser, if they ignore an order to launch and Russia doesn't they are a hero.
In Russia, less so. If they ignore an order to launch first will that lead to Putin's downfall or will they replaced with someone who will say yes?
Putin has clearly stated a number of times he want USSR land mapping back to pre glasnost he even wrote a paper on it.
That means treating Poland as USSR.
Ukraine really had/have no control over Putin and his sick ideas of Napoleonic conquest other than throwing everything at him.
Only china can put him back in the box diplomacy wise and I hope they are trying very hard
But chucking out “so your ok with” statements is pish.
One thing leads to the other. No one has yet come up with a realistic scenario where Putin accepts defeat without going nuclear (sorry Russian squaddies refusing to press the button doesn't count). Who knows maybe he would, but is it worth the gamble when we know what the end result would be?
How far into someone else's country should we let him march every time he rattles the nuclear stick?
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war. I ask again, is that something you’re willing to accept so that you can say you maintained the moral high ground?
No one is talking about invading Russia
Ukraine wants to get it's territory back
Russias annexations on the other hand shows that all they ever wanted to do was conquer Ukraine
Appeasing Putin is not the answer
No one is talking about invading Russia
What about the Crimea? There's plenty of talk now about Ukraine taking it back. I'm pretty sure that after 7 years of it being 'part of' Russia that Putin will regard that as an invasion of the homeland. Is regaining the Crimea for Ukraine worth risking nuclear war for?
Putin pretty much considers any part of Europe that might have had some Russian occupation at some point during the last few centuries is a de facto part of Russia now, and he has a more or less God-given right to take them back into Greater Russia. That includes all of the Balkans, Sweden, Finland and all of the Asian parts, the ‘stans.
It is historically factual that Ukraine was an independent country with its own culture existing before Russia did. Russia gets its name from the Rus, ‘those who build boats’, in other words Vikings who traveled across land and by rivers, and settled around Kyiv, eventually becoming Ukrainian princes. Olga of Kyiv was actually an ethnic Scandinavian Viking, although recent DNA research has shown that Vikings encompassed a number of different ethnic groups, including British.
Most countries’ sense of collective consciousness depends on a certain degree of undisputed mythology that becomes widely accepted by the population as part of national history. But Russia, in its institutions and collective memories, is searching for that sense of certainty in its past, given it has lost the last great unifying idea of Soviet communism.
The consequences of this loss pose a direct challenge, feeding Russia’s existential insecurities that it has not been able to reconcile since the late Soviet and especially the post-Soviet times – a story about Russian victimisation and loss of national patrimony.This is why Putin’s vision of Russia’s past clings to the idea of a ninth-century political entity known as the Kyivan Rus’, used by the president and his ideological allies as the anchor point for Russia’s nationhood.
Without it, Russia becomes a relatively young state, going back only as far as Ivan III, who came to the throne in the 1460s as the first monarch to assume the title of tsar (or emperor – even though this was never officially recognised).
Some Poles seem to absolutely hate them. A bit taken aback in the case of people I worked with as they worked with Russians in the same team.
On my work work travels I traveled to and met folk in Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary and Slovakia, I met more than a few who had real dislike for the Russians and what they did. We have to remember that independence from Russia is relatively recent - during early 1990s. Memories are real and raw for many.
Russia in the last few years and months has again shown that as a nation they are still using violence, brutality, disinformation and lying on an industrial scale.
that Putin will regard that as an invasion of the homeland.
Putin thinks Ukriane is Russia.
thread is descending from useful and interesting news to bickering
Yeh, sorry about that.
Putin thinks half of Africa is his too Mali , Burkina Faso all have Russia backed movements going on Mali for years it's just not on our radar. The french had been battling Russian backed terrorists for a good while they have withdrawan I believe now.
FWIW, there are claims Ukraine took back around 2000km2 today
Appeasement does not work
If only there was an example from the last 80 to 90 years!
A near Godwin but not quite.
Olga of Kyiv was actually an ethnic Scandinavian Viking, although recent DNA research has shown that Vikings encompassed a number of different ethnic groups, including British.
Point of order, Viking was a profession/occupation not a race. So ethnic Scandinavian, Goth, Gaul or Angle could all be Vikings.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war.
How do you know that?
Has anyone seen anything relating to RU POWs? I'm still looking and not see anything reported.
They must have thousands and thousands of them. Maybe RU's strategy is to flood ukraine with POWs and force them to use resource and manpower keeping the secure, fed and warm
Putin thinks Ukriane is Russia.
Yeah, pretty much what I said.
Point of order, Viking was a profession/occupation not a race. So ethnic Scandinavian, Goth, Gaul or Angle could all be Vikings.
Yeah, also pretty much what I said, if you’d read what I posted about recent DNA research. In order to clarify, and so that anyone reading through the link I posted above, who may have gone past it, here’s the hyperlink within it that clarifies.
The question of the use of nuclear weapons is quite complicated and I’m not sure the Russian chain of command will just let it happen - whilst Putin and some Generals may order their use, it’s not just a case of pressing a button and kaboom.
They are complicated weapon systems that need programming, arming, targeting and launching - this is the same army that can ‘misplace’ a million uniforms. Expecting every piece of a complex weapon systems to be suitably maintained, fully functional and the operators all trained and motivated might be stretching the truth.
There would also be probable consequences through the International Court of Justice in The Hague for those involved.
So, we all force Ukraine to sign a truce with Russia. Russia keeps Donbas & Crimea.
What happens then? Russia still has Nuclear weapons. It rebuilds its military & in a few years decides to rattle its sabres again, this time over The Baltic states. Do we appease or stand up to him?
Appeasement isn’t a successful strategy to an imperialist nuclear armed bully.
Whenever anyone has stood up to him, he backs down.
He loves to waive his nuclear sausage & threaten people. As long as we set firm sensible boundaries that is our best bet for avoiding nuclear Armageddon.
FWIW, there are claims Ukraine took back around 2000km2 today
Russian troops saying they've been on the front for 7 months with no rotations
Most of us would have a meltdown if we didn't have our weekends
Lots of videos of RU POWS (and dead) Ukrainians saying they are malnourished & desperate for food
Mobilisation appears to have come too late, Ru troops are broken
LPR troops that retreated from Liman are being refused entry to Russian held bases
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577268284335869952?t=XwEARkJh2mKOr8xj2Ys6ew&s=19
The Kherson from was supposed to be held by Russia's best troops, Putin had prioritised that region over Luhansk and they've had months to dig in.
Yet their lines are crumbling
The Kherson from was supposed to be held by Russia’s best troops, Putin had prioritised that region over Luhansk and they’ve had months to dig in.
Yet their lines are crumbling
I know, right? Really significant stuff
Russian air support seems to be similarly exhausted
Crimeans are exciting the country to avoid the draft
Those that are drafted are already being treated like crap before they get anywhere near the fighting
https://twitter.com/Mykola65109280/status/1574688662889054208?t=rsGj4cXR5fFwZrV2JK6QIg&s=19
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1576892097483137024?t=BbsdanL8ay3UniOfHxMbfA&s=19
Thing is though, if Ukraine do re-take Crimea it's going to end up another Sudentenland (like it already was) for any future Russian nutjob to go back to war over. And Ukraine will know this so there'll just be another massive arms race.
Pro Ukrainian take in what might happen in Kherson and why
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937?t=Z9gF8XoJtHb_Mg5gadYHOQ&s=19
And Ukraine will know this so there’ll just be another massive arms race.
Good for the UK as we whore ourselves for weapon sales.
Id really like this to not be true
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1577391890160570368?t=c9XiVvqHN_lTqVdTQXEN5A&s=19
